Members Daily Post: 11/10/18 (complete)

Tips x3 + write ups, Section 1 (comp), test zone, results update (parts 1+2)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT

Ayr

2.05 –

Alabanza (micro distance) w1 I3 H3 11/2 

Iconic Code (m dist) ES+ I3 22/1 S3A WON 22/1>18/1

2.35 – Raffle King (m class) I3 25/1 UP

3.40 –

Redarna (m class) 14 w1 H1 I3 7/2 S2 WON 7/2>5/2 

Tadaany (m class) w1 H3 6/1 UP

5.15 – In Focus (m class) 14 I3 66/1

 

JUMPS

Worcester

1.55 –

Ontopoftheworld (hncp chase) w2 w1 14,30 H1 I3 G3 7/4  S4 UP

Burrenbridge Hotel (m age) I1 9/1  S5  UP

3.30 – Shanksforamillion (hncp h) 20/1 S2A UP

4.00 –

Bradford Bridge (all hncps) 14,30 ES+  H1 I1 G3  5/2 S3A# S4 WON 5/2 

Mere Anarchy (hncp h) 14 G3 12/1 S1 S2 3rd 

The Dawn Man (m age) 5/1 UP

 

Bangor

3.20 – Lofgren ( m dist move) 14 w2 H3 I1 G3 7/2 S4 WON 7/2>9/4

5.00 – Golden Friday (m class) 14H3

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/290,94p, -0.6) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)

Daily Tips

3.10 Ayr – Primos Comet – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365/BV) 12/1 (gen) UP 12>14/1

3.30 Worc – Shanksforamillion – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen) UP 20/1>14/1

3.40 Ayr – Break The Silence – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365/BV) 9/1 (gen) UP 9/1>5/1

that’s the lot for today, 09.18, write ups…

Primos Comet… he arrives here in decent form and while he has a few questions to answer his price just lured me in. He won comfortably enough two starts back at Muss and I have no idea how really. Not many horses can win there over 5f from last, having to switch around the field and challenge up the middle. Come the line he was well on top. With the jockeys claim he’s only 1lb above that win. Last time out he came a decent enough 4th in a much hotter race than this, a 0-90 C3 at Haydock, over 6f with some cut in the ground. He hit the line hard enough there to my eye and I suspect it was class that beat him. He does have to prove himself over this trip but he’s always been outpaced over 5f and staying on later, whereas last time he travelled better and stayed on well enough to my eye. I don’t think 6f will be an excuse. He does have to prove it at C4 also, but the was he won that C5 and ran LTO suggests there’s no excuse on that front either, not at the price. The going is a question for most in here but his sire is 13/52,20p with flat handicappers in soft/heavy, 6/22,8p when over 6f. Jim knows the family/sire well and within those stats he’s trained Jack Dexter/Classie Anne/New Lease of Life all to victory. And he’s run very well on GS and has some size about him. He’s down in class from last time and trainer/jockey are in form in recent days. I thought he looked over-priced. He’s usually held up but that’s because he gets outpaced over 5f and comes with a late run. I’d like to think in these conditions he will hold a more prominent position and there are a few who like to get on with it here. There’s a danger they won’t come back/he gets too far back, but i’ll roll the dice. If he runs as he did LTO, he won’t be far away and there should be more to come from him.

Shanksforamilion… a risky one here but at 20s I thought he was worth a go given he’s 3/3 at the track over hurdles and stands out somewhat as being proven in all race conditions, when everything else isn’t. He’s this price because he’s been PU the last two runs. However, they have been over fences, over the wrong distance and his first two runs back after a break. Hamer is 6/34,11p with all hurdlers that PU last time out, sent off 25/1 or shorter, so some hope on that front. Of course it could be that he’s just out of sorts, but running in these conditions will tell us more. He’s lightly raced for his age and when on song races prominently. I thought there were reasons to think he could bounce back and I couldn’t resist at these odds. Of course he may be adding to those Ps, that’s the risk. If he drifts, then i’ll lower any expectation. I thought Winter Spice looked the most interesting of the shorter priced ones and have had a nibble at 9/2. He arrives in form, and was staying on LTO, and this trip may bring out even more.

Break The Silence… all of this ones turf handicap wins have been in soft/heavy and he gets his conditions here. Pace was my way in as it looks like he could get the lead and try to make all. Pudding Chare can race up there but is drawn wide, down in trip and will hopefully fade out of it. In any case, this one doesn’t have to lead but he won’t be far away, and should be in the right spot. He also stays 8f which isn’t a bad thing. He won two starts back on the AW and four starts back ran a decent second in a C5, a better race than this, and he’s won at C5. He usually comes alive at this time of year, linked to the ground no doubt, and I thought he may be hard to catch. He could have run better LTO but I can forgive a horse one poor run, and i’d like to think the ground, and possibly the hill/track, may have had some part to play. Anyway, at 10s/9s I thought he was a few points too big. The rest have enough questions. The time to back Redarna was LTO at the odds, and he’s 0/5,1p when OR 61+, and has a question over the going, albeit has placed on it. It could be harder to make up ground though today.

So, three pokes. I could do with a winner and fingers crossed at least one of those can give me something to cheer. I don’t do naps as they’re illogical to me, but i’d have to be most confident on Break The Silence, poor sod.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat

R Fell

4.45 A – Glen Moss 7/1

D McCain (14/1<)

3.20 B – Lofgren 7/2 WON 7/2>9/4 

Autumn Trainers

NTD (22/1<) 

3.00 W – Family Man 12/1 UP

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Handicap Chase Starting Points (10/1< best)

1.55 W – King Alfonso 9/2 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results (part 1)

I’ve updated the ‘The Strategies: Where Should You Begin’ link in the key above, and also HERE>>>

As always, please please read if you’ve any interest in what systematic approaches you can take so qualifiers in section 1.

Results (part 2)

I’ve pulled the main results docs up to date, to end of Sept 2018.

Flat HERE>>>

Jumps HERE>>>

(just noticed i’ve missed S2 in the jumps, and will update that asap)

The test zones have been updated also, and for the Jumps, Lacey + McCain continue to fly the flag on that front, systematically at least. But, plenty of winners are found there, so still useful as ‘ways in/starting points’

Outside of the ‘where should you begin’ strategies, i’ll just draw your attention to the Jumps ‘in form horses’

So, section 1 jumps qualifier, that won LTO (w1) or won two starts ago (w2).. tracked from 12th Feb 2018…

Total 2018 (12th Feb to end Sept)

Won LTO: 36/116,45p, +48.25

Won two starts ago: 17/91, 31p, +25.6

Total w1 + w2: 53/207, 76p, +73.85

They are building up some decent numbers. That has mainly been during the summer months and it will be interesting to see if that simple approach continues during the winter months. Fingers crossed it does. Again, if nothing else it’s a decent ‘way in’ to the section 1 stats qualifiers, before further research.

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Really Super…

If you’re unaware I have shares in Really Super (and Blessed to Empress) with White Diamond Racing, both in training with the excellent Amy Murphy. The White Diamond team have created a fantastic, intimate syndicate with a superb bunch of enthusiastic owners. It helps that both horses have now won 5 races between them, and Really Super is going for the hat-trick. 
Racing To Profit is well represented now, with myself `and three of my members taking shares in Really Super, for 2018-19. 
The good news is that there are TWO 2.5% lease shares available. These run from 1st Oct 2018 to 1st Oct 2019. 
All being well with the horse, Really Super will be running at Cheltenham on Friday 26th, and provided she comes home safe, it promises to be a fantastic day out. And in my view she goes there with a live EW chance, whatever else turns up!! 🙂 
Lease Shares cost £1000 for 2.5% for the year, and come the end of the agreement you’d be entitled to 2.5% of any prize money, as per the lease agreement. Clearly it isn’t an investment, and any money should be viewed as such, with no expectation of a return. In reality it’s a pricey hobby! However, if you’re passionate about horse racing and ever wanted a share in a progressive jumper, you won’t find a better opportunity than this in my view. I doubt there’s a more intimate, engaged and passionate syndicate than ours, packed with great people, some of whom do like a bottle of bubbles at the track. (not me, obviously!! 🙂 ) 
Anyway, if you want more info/have any questions, do email me and it will be on a first come first serve basis. There were just 2 shares left as of last night. I can put you in touch with the White Diamond guys if you’re serious. There are payment options, albeit they always prefer some of the money up front. 
Hopefully I’ll see you at Cheltenham! 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

25 Responses

  1. U.S. Racing Tip Wednesday evening – Thistledown race 8, 10.10 UK time, Honolulu Blue, 1.5 points each way, 6/1 currently.

    Good luck.

  2. Just heard James Doyle’s interview with Matt Chapman after his 2nd in the Arc.
    What a lovely down to earth young man a credit to the sport of horse racing,and no doubt he will win the Arc in the future,explained his ride and the reasons why Sea Of Class was so far behind and flew at the finish,hopefully those who have been criticizing him have listened.
    A very humble young man who had nothing but praise for Enable and also for the Haggas team,and at the time in his words gutted.

    1. I said after the race that Doyle gave a brilliant ride. He gave Sea Of Class the best chance of winning the race in my opinion. Switching her off at the back after a tough draw. If she was rode more prominently she would of used up more energy and not finished as strong. Enable tired final furlong after next to no preparation.

    2. A tricky one. Without doubt he gave her a cracker, based on the tactics employed, once decided that they didn’t wish to change her run style. By all accounts she was hard to train in May, and took an age to learn how to settle, hence i assume the tactics employed in her career to date. She clearly has an electric turn of foot and in order to get the best from her, she needs switching off. And in reality, were she not stuck behind Kew Gardens but instead had a faster horse that was going forward as they turned for home, she’d have won. So it was nearly the perfect ride from that draw, and everything else then comes with hindsight.
      They clearly didn’t wish to keep her straight and do a Golden Horn, running wide for an age and slowly tacking over, in the hope of getting a prominent position before the bend. Given her style/training/race riding up to that point, to change her run style/tactics was clearly deemed a greater risk than the tactics employed. Who’s to say she wouldn’t have been lit up, or unable to tuck in and stuck 3/4 wide. It sounds like he took advice from Kieron Fallon and Haggas father-in-law Lester Piggot, with both suggesting it would be wrong to change a horses style for that race, without ever having tried similar tactics before. I mean they are fairly good judges!

      I hope they may teach her to burst, get a prominent position, and then settle. Given her turn of foot that would be a potent combination. Fingers crossed they both stay in training for a re-match, + any other stars that come through to compete at that level. Could be quite a race next year, all being well.
      Had she got up, many would say it was a quite brilliant ride from that draw, on a filly that to date has to be switched off! I suspect it’s easier to live with that result, than if they had changed it up, forced her forward, she’d have pulled, no cover, stuck wide, and faded into a remote 5th or something.

    1. I’m not surprised the bookies were running for cover on this one. People were taking as low as 6.8/1 on betfair, (lower after commission), when the price was 8/1 across the board.

      Not really my place to say it but frankly it is idiotic imho. Not only do you secure a poor price for yourself but you crash the price for everyone else and even those that did get on, are likely to have their accounts marked.

      Pretty sure it will bounce back but the price will last a lot longer if people show a bit more restraint on the exchanges.

      1. I quite agree Francis.

        Taking the couple of quid on Betfair overnight is plain stupid. The bookies don’t have odds compilers any more, they just follow Betfair. Ridiculous to think a £2 bet can shift a market but it can and does.

        1. As someone who has to trade on exchanges or go to betting shops to place bets, what you need to understand about exchanges is that they come alive close to race time. Therefore if you do want to bet the evening before you are best to do so via a bookmaker if you can but beware it may lead to restrictions if you do it too often. To be fair to bookmakers some will take a bet up to £500 the night before, albeit you cannot do it often. Bet Victor and BET365 are two that allow it. I know this as I occasionally do it via friends etc. It can have an impact on markets but I have seen the price remain the same after such a bet has been placed and so do not over egg the point re bookies folding prices at the sniff of a price thief about. I do like to bash the bookies but in my view they are not all bad re prices holding up.

          What you should have a go at them is when they offer 4 places for 16 runners and take bets and then a horse gets pulled out and they have to only pay three places. I am not a great each way player but they must make a fair few quid a year by this happening quite often.

          1. I have definitely noticed the prices of mine dropping more recently particularly when I have been putting them on here earlier than after 9PM so have tried putting them on as late as I can these days. The more my stakes go up the more I intend to use BetConnect which only have their horse racing up at 9am so if prices continually drop a lot the night before I will have to wait until 9am before posting going forward so would be good for anyone reading this to avoid using exchanges the night before.

          2. i’m afraid i do exactly what you say i shouldn’t, as my wife and i are carers for my father and mother in law we are out and about normally by 8-30 am and don’t get back until about 11-30 so i place all my bets from section 1 and any tips the night before. i very rarely take a price unless i think it’s vastly to big but put in a price which i think is about 50% higher than it should be and mark everything take sp. so you can all blame me 🙂

          3. There is not a problem using exchanges the night before per se. The problem comes when people request a price on betfair which is below the price generally available with bookmakers because bookies are left with no option to slash prices to prevent arbing.

            I believe those using exchanges the night before should try to get matched at or above the generally available price or not at at all.

            Unfortunately, requesting prices below the generally available price ruins things for the majority, including Nick by the sounds of it.

          4. Totally understand the place reduction when a horse gets pulled out. Happened to me yesterday again which was very infuriating. Maybe they should honour the bet with some kind of rule 4 or void the bet. I’m more likely to go each way if there’s more than 3 places up for grabs even down to 5/1.

  3. There is a Gordon Elliott – Richard Johnson Yankee at Bangor on Thursday.

    2,15 Askari 7/2
    2.50 Eshtiall 4/1
    3,20 Mill Quest 5/4
    3.50 Global Jackpot 13/8

    The potential system of trainers having a 50% place record over the last 14 days with at least 5 runs gave a 1.25 points profit on Wednesday with two winners and three losers. Thursday qualifiers are:

    3.40 A Redarna & Gone With The Wind
    4.00 W Mere Anarchy
    4.10 A Roaring Forties & Harbour Patrol
    7.45 C Arrowzone
    8.15 C Majeste
    8.45 C Hattaab

    Good luck.

    1. I would also put forward Without Frontier in the 4.00 Wor at 14/1, 1 point each way. This looks a weak race and if they horse has got back to near his best he can take this.

      Good luck.

  4. best hdcp + best par figure….yesterday only one winner from the selections for loss of 1.75 points..todays runners:
    14.05 Ayr. Boots & Spurs
    15.30 Worc. Kublai
    16.10 Ayr. Palavicini Run
    16.25 Ban. Grams & Ounces
    16.45 Ayr Glen Moss
    17.00 Ban. Marju’s Quest

    Gd Lck.

  5. No joy at either Newcastle last night or at Kempton tonight for -6pts and -3pts respectively. Still in profit for october. Chelmsford tomorrow. Qualifiers:
    6.15 Mawahib 6/1
    7.45 Demophon 11/1
    8.45 Final Choice 4/1

    All 1pt win

    Good Luck

  6. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    A 2.05 – Chinese Spirit on 6th run @ 11
    A 2.05 – Iconic Code on 3rd run @ 20
    A 2.35 – Goninodaethat on 5th run @ 33
    A 4.45 – Kupa River on 1st and 4th run @ 20
    B 5.00 – Marjus Quest on 4th run @ 4
    3m+
    B 3.20 – Lofgren on 1st run @ 7/2
    GL

    Totally lost my isp yesterday after a few days of intermittent service so still behind. Piggy-backing on a neighbours this morning but bloody slow. Engineer coming between 1 and 6 today so hopefully back to full service and I can get things up-to-date then
    Mike

        1. Yep, it’s been a bit barren lately. Anyone following e/w should have recouped a decent chunk of losses this week with a fair dint in win only.
          My internet’s back up now but as it’s nearly w/end I may as well leave figs til Sunday evening and do 2 weeks together unless someone is waiting for them. Let me know if you are.

  7. Chris M Selections

    Bangor:
    14:15 – Flying Verse (11/1 gen)
    15:20 – Logfren (7/2 gen)

    Ayr:
    15:40 – Tadaany (8/1 gen)

    Good luck today 🙂 hopefully I can turn this week around!

  8. 3.30 Worcester -Winter Spice 7/2 BOG

    5 to 9 yr old Class 4/5 handicappers allotted 12st to 12st 5lbs over 2.5 miles and shorter on any ground other than heavy = 83/333 (24.92%) for 83.09pts (+24.95% ROI) at Industry SP.

    Those with a Geegeez Pace Score of 2 to 4 fare even better, as do sub 16/1 shots.

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