Members Daily Post: 10/10/18 (Tipx1/complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT 

Nottingham

4.30 – Doctor Cross (3yo+ hncps, micro age) w1 G3 20/1 UP

5.00 – Boots And Spurs (all hncps) I3 20/1 

 

JUMPS

Ludlow

None.

Southwell

Late update (12.30) won’t count in any results, thankfully no strategy quals…

2.50 – Kovera (m age) 14,30 7/1

4.20 – The Captain (nov hncps) (hncp debut) I3 6/1  S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/286,94p, +4.4) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)

Daily Tips

4.00 Notts – Fire Tree – 1 point EW – 9/1 (BV) 17/2 (bet365) 8/1 (gen) UP,  for whatever reason he hasn’t run any sort of race there, I thought he’d be further forward but seemingly never really travelled and the winner came from further back than him, quite the performance. It looks like he may have just regressed this year, unless the ground there had dried out too much. Anyway, I won’t dwell on that for much longer.

I thought this one was worth a go at 8s EW in what appears an open enough race to my eyes-  well, it may depend whether the fav takes to turf after his win LTO but he has that to prove and was held up there, so may need plenty of luck. This horse is 2/8,7p in class 5 handicaps and it’s the first time he’s run in this grade all season. Last May he was dotting up off 70 in a 16 runner 1m C5 handicap. He then won an apprentice C4 handicap over 8f at Ascot after which his mark went up to 81. In the first of those wins he raced more prominently and he’s been held up out the back in most of his runs this season, seemingly over the wrong trip. His form would suggest he wants good ground with some give, and a galloping 1m where they go some pace. I don’t think he’s had that since those two wins, but he gets it today. So, there’s no excuse really, on paper at least. They fitted him with blinkers LTO and he ran his best race of the season – well, it’s the closest he’s finished. He was checked in his run twice there, and I can’t think 7.5f around Chester would suit anyway, but it indicated some sort of revival may be in the offing. Fellowes has had 3 winners from his last 14 runners, including one yesterday and they seem in decent enough form. He’s also 3/12,5p at the track in the last year and the main man for the yard jumps back on. They are 40/218,91p, +50 in all handicaps, 15/76,23p, +15 in the last year, which are decent enough numbers. Hopefully this one can build on that run LTO and bounce back in what appears to be ideal conditions. I hope they track the pace/race him more handy, especially now his handicap mark has come down/he’s dropped in class!

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

4.50 South- Filipine 8/1 UP

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

5.15 Lud – Mrs Hyde 4/1

Tom Lacey 

2.20 South – Flashing Glance 5/1 2nd

A Dunn (25/1< guide) 

2.50 South – Chasing Headlights UP/ Seven Nation Army UP

Autumn Trainers

E Lavelle 

4.40 Lud – Blushing Red WON 11/1>11/2 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results (part 1)

I’ve updated the ‘The Strategies: Where Should You Begin’ link in the key above, and also HERE>>>

As always, please please read if you’ve any interest in what systematic approaches you can take so qualifiers in section 1.

While my daily tipping remains just awful, at least some of the strategies have done well so far in 2018. For 2018, to end of September, the 3 ‘big odds’ strategies, Flat S6, Jumps S1 and S2A were +278.97 points to BFSP, 1 point win, 5% commission deducted.

The three flat strategies I pointed you towards earlier in the season (Flat S1, S4 S6) were +117 (early/bog) / +134 (if backing S6 to BFSP)

So, something for me to cheer there at least. All tips are still on +213 or so for the year, inc free tips, but that daily tips pile is awful.

On Wednesday I will bring the other two strategy links up to date, with everything else not included in that doc above, as I last did that on 15th July.

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REALLY SUPER

There are 3 2.5% Lease Shares left in her for 2018/19 (12 months) 

I’ll be back with more detail but if you’re interested do email me, pref to the gmail address in key above. Provided she’s sound, she will be running at Cheltenham on Friday 26th October. I’m only a little bit excited at that prospect! Ken has joined the gang, ensuring RTP is well represented what with Doug a member already. It’s a rather small/intimate syndicate and we all know how to have a good time on race-day. Anyway, do think about it, if you’ve ever fancied ownership I don’t think there’s many better opportunities around. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

38 Comments

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  • U.S.Racing Tip Tuesday evening – Thistledown race 7. Emmys Candy, 9.40 UK time. 1 point each way, circa 6/1 at present. If a non runner then substitute Ibelieveinmiracles, same bet.

    Nick,
    congrats on the double Tuesday. We missed the big pay out with the third selection but the double paid 144/1! I will send you some bottles later this week. If you fancy a change of content in the bottles email me?

    martin colwell 09/10/18 5:58 PM Reply


    • The selection was third but with a non runner there were only two places!!

      martin colwell 09/10/18 9:59 PM Reply


  • Newcastle still in progress. No winners so far. Back to Kempton tomorrow. Qualifiers:
    6.10 Ever Changing 7/2
    8.10 Breathless Times 7/2
    9.10 War Glory 7/1

    1pt win each.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 09/10/18 7:28 PM Reply


  • It comes to something when a non-runner is the highlight of the qualifiers!

    On Wednesday we have:

    14.05 Cork – Coral Beach (50/50 12 months course) 9/4

    14.35 Cork – Credenza (as above) 9/4

    17.40 Kempton – Originaire (41/52 12 months) 5/1

    18.10 Kempton – Current Option (as above) 5/1

    I won’t be posting any more qualifiers as the excellent seam of form they had over summer and early September just hasn’t been sustained. I will keep recording them for NH starting Saturday and post an update after a month. I can then decide if it’s worth posting the qualifiers again during the NH season.

    Thanks to Nick, Ken and others over the last few days for the winners. Best of luck to all, this is a tremendous community of racing buffs which I am proud to be a part of.

    Mark Curtis 09/10/18 8:59 PM Reply


    • Do not be too disheartened Mark. As I said a few days ago on here, these type of systems have been tried by a number of people in the past in various places. I would try it with a tweak, say a certain number of selected trainers, likely not the top guys? I need to give it more thought when I get the chance.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 09/10/18 9:58 PM Reply


    • You will hit bad patches Mark, don’t worry.

      I would ignore 30 day stats because they represent a recent peak performance which is unlikely to continue at that level.

      I am also very wary of betting in maiden races so would discount them.

      Chris Murrell 10/10/18 9:09 AM Reply


      • I was playing on Geegeez Gold re trainer form etc and, taking into account the dangers of back filling, came up with – ‘Trainers with 5 runners or more in the last 14 days, where 50%+ runners have been placed, each way bet’. I am not a great believer on current form being all but I will test this one and see how it goes?

        Todays qualifiers:

        4.00N Glendun
        3.10 Lud Belmount
        2.20 Sou McGroarty
        8.40KP Babyfact
        9.10 KP Mr Scaramanga All 1 point each way.

        martin colwell 10/10/18 9:41 AM Reply


  • Michele Strogoff Nottingham Wednesday 16:30 1pt e/w

    Nick Mazur 09/10/18 9:23 PM Reply


  • Really Super. I can’t believe, having taken out a 2.5% share, I can’t make it to Cheltenham on Friday 26th. Bugger!! I need need a diary secretary. Any offers? 🙂 I’ll just have to cheer her on from home.

    Ken McKenzie 09/10/18 9:49 PM Reply


    • Glad you’ve taken a share Ken. Look forward to meeting up later this year!
      Cheers
      Doug

      dougandnicky 10/10/18 6:57 AM Reply


      • Yes, look forward to it. Hopefully when the next meeting comes around, I won’t have anything pre-planned 🙁

        Ken McKenzie 10/10/18 9:58 AM Reply


  • RT +2.5
    710 Ke La Maquina 11/2
    740 Ke Bexitmeansbrexit 15/2
    910 Ke Piece of History

    kevo19 09/10/18 11:45 PM Reply


    • Price taken on Piece of History 7/1

      kevo19 09/10/18 11:45 PM Reply


  • A few post ago someone mentioned the Betdaq web site had proform ratings which can be used if you have an account with them so did start looking at certain runners and noticed that horses that had the best handicapped mark i.e running well below the last time they won and also had the best class par figure do appear to do well. Yesterday for example, there were 14 qualifiers….4 won (28% SR) and 3 placed…SP prices were 8/1, 16/1, 20/1 12/1 5/1,6/1, 3/1….win only bets returned 37 points to £1 per point stake…..10 losing bets to the same stake resulted in 27 points profit….if backed each way @1/4 the odds returned 15.5 pts with minus 7pts returned 8.5 pts profit for the places ( 6 placed 1 win only bet and 7 unplaced)……thought this was a possible angle that may prove worthwhile and the selections are easy to find…..10/10 Wednesday qualifiers are as follows…..14.50 Southwell Waltz Darling. 1700 Nottingham Boots and Spurs. 19.10 Kempton Gentlemen, and in the 20.40 Kempton there are three horses that are very close on the figures…Duke Cosimo, It’sA wish and Kingsley Clarion….I am not saying they are going to win or place but worth further monitoring….and for me personally worth a shot with small stakes…all the best.

    silver 10/10/18 1:54 AM Reply


  • Couple of questions for nick do your records show whether you do better in class 3-4-5-6 handicaps than class 1and2 and why do you think your methods might struggle on all weather

    Paul 10/10/18 8:43 AM Reply


    • I don’t keep records of such a split but I don’t think they differ too much. Part of the reason why I don’t do as well on AW is I tip less there. Another reason is it has less straight tracks which I think I do better at. Maybe there are other reasons. Something I am definitely pondering. I suspect winter AW where you have have less fresh blood I am better at but will put that to the rest later this year.

      Nick Mazur 10/10/18 3:49 PM Reply


  • Josh,
    Isn’t BLUSHING RED 4.40 LUDLOW a Autumn trainer qualifier for Emma Lavelle?
    Cheers
    Andy

    Andy Ness 10/10/18 9:05 AM Reply


    • Thanks for that Andy, appear to have missed that in my HRB account somehow, along with a couple of others.

      Josh 10/10/18 9:09 AM Reply


  • 8.40 Kempton – Chica de la Noche 5/1

    Simon Dow’s 5/6 furlong sprinters are 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 29pts (+82.8%) / 45.5pts (+129.9%) at SP/BSP here at Kempton since the start of 2014.

    And 4/13 since the start of 2017.

    traf69 10/10/18 9:14 AM Reply


  • Morning Josh, rushing around and just noticed you’ve missed 2 at Swell.
    2.50 – Kovera (micro age)
    4.20 – The Captain (nov HcH)

    Titus 10/10/18 9:30 AM Reply


    • Oh bugger, I haven’t had a good day on that front. Thanks. Won’t count in any results but thankfully none of them are strategy quals, so no one will miss out on that score.
      Josh

      Josh 10/10/18 12:27 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    L 4.40 – Cape Caster on 1st run @ 9/2
    N 5.00 – Savannah Moon on 3rd run @ 16

    I’m way behind on getting some figs together for last week but hopefully later today.
    Mike

    Titus 10/10/18 9:34 AM Reply


  • Boots and Spurs NR

    chrisrees 10/10/18 9:36 AM Reply


  • Is Blushing Red not a qualifier for the Lavelle test zone angle?

    Michael S 10/10/18 9:42 AM Reply


    • Ah, see someone else already caught it, should’ve refreshed the page first.

      Michael S 10/10/18 9:44 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    3.10 Ludlow Templestatefloresco BOG 7/1
    4.30 Nottingham Michele Strogoff BOG 8/1
    8.40 Kempton Duke Cosimo BOG 10/3

    colin leafe 10/10/18 10:04 AM Reply


    • I’ve been waiting for October and the Colin aw bets. Came to the rescue today. Thanks
      Hugh

      alpha2 10/10/18 10:45 PM Reply


  • Chris M Selections:
    Southwell:
    14:20 – Flashing Glance (11/2 gen)

    Chris M 10/10/18 10:07 AM Reply


  • Seems a quite day so I thought I’d chip in with some traines that do well historically in Oct.
    Southwell…
    2.50 CORNER CREEK
    4.20 THE CAPTAIN

    Pam Sly comes alive around now…. There are a couple of micros to this.
    None really qualified today but some tasty priced runners about today and worth a few quid.
    Nottingham…
    5.00 KHAZIX

    jarrodholmes68 10/10/18 10:37 AM Reply


  • Odd one josh fire tree 7/2 sports book betfair 7/1 exchange

    Paul 10/10/18 1:55 PM Reply


    • Paddypower|betfair (same company, and now I assume same odds compilers for sportsbooks maybe) look to be ducking him for whatever reason, 7/2 and everyone else 5s. He’ll be declared at 6s if he can get the job done/unless he drifts, as 8s didn’t last too long. It’s not impossible they have a marked account either from a pro punter or yard money, and have taken cover, as at the moment they clearly don’t want to be taking any bets on him. Could just be an anomaly mind.

      Josh 10/10/18 2:07 PM Reply


      • Haven’t watched the Fire Tree race but from results it went off at 10/1 and finished plum last by 30 lengths. What’s that all about?

        Michael Crowther 10/10/18 4:29 PM Reply


        • oh he has never really travelled, I don’t know if ground too fast or he’s now recalcitrant and blinkers didn’t work again. One of those, that’s how it’s going at the moment, sums up the year on that front!

          Josh 10/10/18 4:34 PM Reply


  • Bloody typical! Two wins for the 40%s at 5/2 and 7/2 with two more to run at Kempton tonight. Just when I had stopped backing them…………

    Mark Curtis 10/10/18 4:41 PM Reply


    • i feel your pain mark 🙂 …. things can only ..and will get better 🙂

      BRIAN CRICK 10/10/18 4:43 PM Reply


  • hold the back page !!!!.. saving all our red blushes … in she goes .. good girl !!! 🙂

    BRIAN CRICK 10/10/18 4:45 PM Reply


    • errrr ..its a bloke ..soz 🙂

      BRIAN 10/10/18 4:48 PM Reply


      • Cheers Brian, yes thank goodness for Autumn trainers, saved the day!!

        Mark Curtis 10/10/18 4:58 PM Reply


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