Members Daily Post: 06/10/18 (complete)

Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT

Ascot 

3.35 –

Flaming Spear  (micro class)  w1 H3 I3 G1 13/2 S2 S4 S6 

Il Primo Sole (micro age) 14,30 9/1 

 

Newmarket (Row) 

2.05 – Maggies Angel (micro dist) I1 25/1 S6 

2.40 – Accountability (1st 2yo) 12/1 

4.25 –

Move Swiftly  (micro class)  w2 14,30  H1 I3 G1 13/8 S1 S2 S4 

Bella Ragazza  (micro age)   w2 14 H3 13/2 

5.00 –

Dynamic  (micro class)  w1 14,30 I3 8/1 

Broderie  (all Hc’s) I3 15/2 

Escape The City  (micro age) 14 H3 I1 G1 8/1 S1 S2 S4 S6 

5.35 –

Snow Wind  (micro class)  w2 14,30 11/1 

Klassique  (micro class)  w1 w2 14,30 H3 9/2 

Jedhi  (micro age)   w2 14 16/1 

Bossiney Bay  (micro age) 14 20/1 

 

Redcar 

3.25 – Jimmy Greenhough  (1st 2yo) 7/1 

4.35 – Masham Star  (all Hc’s, micro’s age and going) I1 14/1 S6 

5.40 – Winged Spur  (all Hc’s, micro’s age and going) 10/1 

 

JUMPS

Fontwell

3.20 – Peppay La Pugh  (HcCh)  w2 H1 I3 G1 Evens S4 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/285,94p, +6.4) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)

None today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

8.45 Wolv – Zihan 12/1 

Top of the Class

2.40 N – Accountability 12/1 

5.00 N – Broderie 15/2 

*

Handicap Chase System Starting Points

4.30 F – Beau Sancy 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

40 Responses

  1. U.S. racing tip Friday evening – Santa Anita race 6, 11.40 UK time, Haylord, 2.5 points win, 3/1 now.

    Good luck.

  2. Only one winner on Friday from TTS stats on Directors Cut info (one star) and that was N. King’s Mercers Court 5.00 Fontwell returned 6/4 Fav. No qualifiers Sat 6/10.

      1. Gd luck Traf69…..personally I am not following the zero stars….just too many bets….hope this wins for you.

  3. Given the rain I will be posting most of my tips closer to midday but one I want to put up in case it gets price wised which shouldn’t be too effected as to how much rain we get:

    Growl Ascot Saturday 15:35 1pt e/w

  4. Two winners from four qualifiers on Friday, albeit one at 4/9 SP! Moving on:

    15.20 Fontwell – Oliver’s Hill (40/40 12 months) 3/1

    15.55 Fontwell – Dorking Cock (41/61 12 months) 10/3

    14.05 Newmarket – Indian Tygress (50/58 30 days) 7/2

    15.50 Newmarket – Wedding Data (41/62 12 months) 8/1

    17.00 Newmarket – Asoof (41/50 12 months) 11/2

    17.35 Newmarket – Lady Bergamot (50/58 30 days) 7/1

    17.40 Redcar – Rose Tinted Spirit (42/68 12 months) 9/2

    Having a quick look I think many are in with a chance which I haven’t felt most of the week, so I am going in!!

    Good luck with whatever you do.

      1. Hi Claire

        Good luck today but just wanted to stress these are not tips, just statistical pointers to having a closer look at the horses in question. Whether I back them depends on the strength of other runners in the race, price etc etc. I do like a few today but would not want to lead anyone up the garden path!

        Have a good day whatever happens.

      2. Hi Mark. I know they are not tips sorry but I just wanted you to know Ihave 4 of them on today using geegeez and speed ratings and other pieces off form ..I had Emily Goldfinch in the first at newmarket 2nd highest rated ..wish I had shared the info .

    1. Mark,
      your reply to Claire had me thinking do you not have any figures, results for you are only putting up 40% plus,which should be showing an healthy profit backing them all.
      Clive Holt always said that if you are winning 30% of the time then you will be showing a good profit,for those who do not know Clive Holt he was a professional gambler and a very shrewd marketing man with his books on racing systems many of his thoughts are still relevant today.

      1. I know of instances where Mark’s approach here (not tips) has been tried in the past. Some interesting outcomes, OK in the short term but not in the long term. However the samples I have come across are ‘small’ sample sizes. It would be interesting to let it run for at least one year and longer really to see what happens. I think that is the way that you only really know.

        1. Thanks for the opinions gents, always interesting to hear. I agree that these should be able to be backed blind because of the statistical base but I can’t help but delve deeper before parting with my cash and thus get put off some of them.

          I am incredibly poor at record keeping (sorry Colin) but intend to record the success or otherwise of these selections for the whole of the NH season just out of curiousity, commencing at the big Chepstow meeting soon. That way we will have an idea of whether backing all qualifiers is a goer or not. In the meantime, thanks for taking an interest, comments always welcome.

          1. Sorry, meant to ask: what price should I record the winning qualifiers at when I start? Josh asked me to post the prices when I post the selections the night before (don’t have time in the mornings) but should I record to these or SP?

          2. Mark,
            Depends how honest you want to be in recording prices,any tipster can manipulate the prices and make the results look better and they do.
            I record bookmakers SP and now BOG,look at the price of the bet on Oddschecker and note any N/R prior to putting the bet up on RTP,today 5 bets and at the time of placing the bet only 1 N/R in the 4.30,now the 4.30 is a winner and their is an additional N/R,so back to Oddscchecker to see what price that the additional N/R was withdrawn to decide what the R4 is.
            Also in claiming a BOG price their must be at least 2 bookmakers showing the BOG price for me to claim it,mentioned on here before Racing Post Pricewise claimed a 50/1 winner,all bookmakers had 25/1 in the morning bar Sporting Bet who stood alone at 50/1 do you think you could have had £100 at 50/1,had words with their staff about this for at the time Optimum Racing and myself were paying them to proof my bets,i have never bought the Racing Post since.
            R4 deductions rates in £
            3/10 75p
            2/5 70 p
            8/15 to 4/9 65p
            8/13 to 4/7 60p
            4/5 to 4/6 55 p
            20/21 to 5/6 50p
            evens to 6/5 45p
            5/4 to 6/4 40p
            13/8 to 7/4 35p
            15/8 to 9/4 30p
            5/2 to 3/1 25p
            10/3 to 4/1 20p
            9/2 to 11/2 15p
            6/1 to 9/1 10p
            10/1 to 14/1 5p
            Some bookmakers do not charge the 5p deduction but some do so once again this deduction will always be shown in my results and figures.
            Hope that this is of use to anyone who wishes to keep accurate records,if you are cheating your results then you are losing out.

          3. Thanks Colin. As I am not posting these as tips, I don’t think I am going to go into such detail. I am just curious as to whether backing blind, without further analysis, would pay off. I will probably record to SP as swings and roundabouts as to shorteners and drifters from overnight prices.

            But thanks for taking the time to outline your rationale.

  5. No joy at Chelmsford on Thursday, so with 1 NR that’s -5pts. Better tonight at Wolves with 1 winner for +2pts. Wolves again tomorrow. Qualifiers below.
    6.45 Polybius 6/1
    7.15 Late Change 4/1
    7.45 River Cafe 4/1
    8.15 Raven’s Raft 9/2

    All 1pt win

    Good Luck

  6. If its not to be the usual suspects filling the place slots then I think Raydiance in the 3:35 at Ascot can go really well. The races he’s run in have thrown up a decent share of winners and he should love the probable soft ground. Cape Byron will like the probable going better than most and is usually thereabouts but 5/1? Not for me. Above The Rest and Shady McCoy are interesting to some degree too.

    1. She tends to like softer ground. If there has been any rain over night we might be ok for a place. The owners of that horse have a better shot at the 3:50 at Newmarket in Praxidice

  7. Been a slow and poor week on my selections font. With the rain expected at Ascot I have a few that caught my eye if that ground softens up.

    Chris M Selections:
    Fontwell:
    14:50 – Notnow Seamus (10/3 gen)

    Ascot:
    15:35 – Raising Sand (7/1 gen and shortening) *** Advised as 2pt WIN bet
    15:35 – Cardsharp (40/1 gen) *** Advised as 1pt EW taking 5places if possible

    Good luck today 🙂

  8. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    A 1.50 – Just Glamorous on 1st and 2nd run @ 33
    A 3.35 – Raising Sand on 3rd and 6th run @ 16
    N 5.00 – Lady of Shalott on 1st run @ 14
    …………Escape The City on 1st run @ 15/2
    N 5.35 – Bossiney Bay on 1st run @ 20
    R 4.35 – Echo Cave on 4th run @ 10
    R 6.10 – Show Palace on 3rd run @ 9
    W 6.45 – King Robert on 6th run @ 25
    Festival
    A 3.35 – Escobar on 4th run @ 16
    …………Il Primo Sole on 2nd run @ 9
    …………Growl on 5th run @ 16
    …………Gilgamesh on 5th run @ 14
    …………Aces on 1st run @ 22
    N 3.15 – Billesdon Brook on 1st run @ 18
    R 4.35 – Dawaaleb on 2nd run @ 9
    R 6.10 – Move in Time on 5th run @ 8
    G 5.25 – Voix du Reve on 1st and 2nd run @ 6/5
    W 6.45 – King Robert on 7th run @ 25
    GL
    Mike

  9. Today’s Tips – 3.30 Lon (FR) Knight To Behold on at 4/1 x 2 points; 4.35 Red Mon Beau Visage at 12/1 at 1 point each way; 6.10 Red Show Palace on at 25/1 at 1 point each way; 4.45 Asc Alaadel on at 8/1, 1 point each way.

    Good luck

  10. For those keeping an eye on the weather today, I am only about 15 mins from Ascot and there has been no rain over night or so far this morning, although overcast. They forecast only light rain this afternoon.

    Chris R.

    1. Rain has now arrived and it’s more than ‘light’, so if it does continue through the afternoon the going is likely to change at Ascot even with the good drainage.

      Chris R.

  11. COLINS BETS
    Ascot
    3.35 Escobar BOG 20/1
    3.35 Ripp Orf BOG 8/1
    4.45 Holmeswood BOG 4/1
    4.45 Only Spoofing BOG 14/1
    Fontwell
    4.30 Pink Eyed Pedro BOG 4/1

  12. Skybet paying 5 places in the first at Ascot today and there’s only 11 runners if anyone wants some each way filth!

    1. Even better it’s actually 10+ runners!!
      I had to go for last years winner at 40/1 to finish in the top half of the race in today’s unpredictable ground conditions as what I see as a fun/value e/w bet.

  13. Three more to add to the one from yesterday:

    Bravery Redcard 16:35 1pt e/w Price available 10/1
    Accessor Redcar 17:40 1pt e/w Price available 10/1
    Angel Force Redcar 18:10 1pt e/w Price available 12/1

    1. On the Oddschecker ‘special offers’ line, it says that this offer is for UK + Ire new customers only Aaron.

        1. Michael
          Didn’t read the T&C’s. Just clicked on the offers box for Ladbrokes and it did say that it was for new customers. It would be interesting to know if anyone with an existing account with them backed a loser and got their money back as a free bet.

  14. Having a bet at Wolves after all now the price is acceptable for my system RT +5.5
    715 Wo Regina Pacis 5/2

  15. Afternoon.
    Sorry I don’t have any tips to offer at the moment but I’m a massive admirer of everyone who contributes on here and as I know it’s full of knowledge and full of fellow enthusiasts i have an off topic question. I want to take my father away next year to Cheltenham for the November meeting (fits in with his birthday) and I wondered if anyone on here had any recommendations on places to stay. Now he’s been before a few years ago but I’ve never visited the track before and it’s going to be a suprise for him so it’s all on me too book the accomodation. I apologize in advance is anyone is offended by a question like this on a platform where many seem to be sharing systems/ideas and tips.

    Thanks.

    Stan.

  16. They were telling porkies then Mike because unfortunately I backed the wrong one but I have a 10er free bet in my Ladbrokes account I use the racing post because I can get on with 3 firms through it and they heavily advertised the offer

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