Members Daily Post: 05/10/18 (complete)

Tips x4, Section 1 (comp), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT 

Ascot

1.50 – Jawwaal (m age) 14,30 I3 G3 12/1 

4.45 – Cliffs of Capri (m class) H1 G3 2/1 S2 

 

JUMPS

Fontwell

2.05 – 

Magical Thomas (all hncps + m dist/age) ES+ H3 I3 G3 7/2 S3A# S4 

Mellow Ben (m dist/age) w1 14,30 H1 I3 10/3 

3.50 – Cabaret Queen (hncp chase) w2 w1 H1 G3 5/2 

4.25 – Bugsie Malone (m runs) 14,30 ES H3 I3 G1 11/4 S4 

 

Hexham 

4.00 – Placedela Concorde (all hncps) ES+ H3 I3 8/1 S3A# S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

4.35 – Top Cat DJ (all hncps) ES+ 33/1 S3A 

5.10 – Chanceiton (m class) H3 I1 G1 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/281,94p, +12.4) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)

 

Daily Tips

1.50 Ascot – Kachumba – 1 point EW – 10/1 (gen)

3.00 Ascot 

Abel Handy – 1 point win – 11/1 (gen) 

Green Power – 1 point win – 18/1 (SkyB/BV/BetB) 16/1 (gen) 

4.10 Ascot – Machine Learner – 1 point EW – 14/1 (bet365) 12/1 (gen) 

 

That’s all for tips, 08.34, 4 in total, 6 points (gulp) , write up…

Kachumba… this filly seems to be getting better as the season goes on. She’s had a busy campaign and may blow out at some point but didn’t show any signs of that LTO. She looks progressive, is back down in class, the yard are flying, SDS stays on, and she runs against her own age group for the first time in a while. The pace also intrigued me as there are no out and out front runners in this. There are a few distance droppers who may be more aggressive on the front end but SDS should be able to get out and adopt the position that he wants – hopefully in a front wave, lobbing along, before he then says go. I wanted to take her last run at face value, in what was a decent race and equally as good as this. The first 3 that day were drawn 12, 13 and 10, all of them having raced in Indian file up the nearside rail, which was a golden highway on the day. To do what she did from stall 2 is quite impressive in that context. She had to use up enough energy to get out and across I think, then racing 3/4 off the rail which wasn’t ideal. She stuck in there well enough, the front 4 miles clear. The three in front were rated 87, 85, 78. If he’s swapped places with Rebel Surge through that race, she’d have been in the top 2 I suspect, and would have run to a level good enough to be in there pitching in this. It’s her first run here which is always a question and maybe this stiff 7 will be a test, albeit she stayed on well enough at Chepstow earlier in the season and you have to stay there. She may be here on the recommendation of SDS, who knows. Everything in here has some sort of question to answer and i’d like to think that if she can settle on/near the front end, she won’t be far away. She’s a trier as well, puts her head down and responds to pressure. Fingers crossed she can run as well as LTO, or build on it further.

Abel Handy… I tipped this one LTO in a much better race over 5.5f, on his first handicap start, where he was doing his best work late on. He ran there as if he may now relish this stiff 6f. Another top jockey has been booked, he should race on the pace, and the reasons for liking him are the same as LTO really. Both of these have the ‘Gunmetals’ about them- a horse I tipped in very good heritage handicap, who had an excuse of sorts (didn’t like Goodwood I don’t think) before making all at a decent price, in a weaker race, on his next start. This one is only having his 2nd handicap run and if he got back to the form of some of his wins earlier in his career, he could demolish this lot. The ground was dead/loose at Donny and that may not have been to his liking either. This is the easiest race he’s contested at the track and i hope for a big run. The trainer is 4/14,5p +37 with horses making their 2nd start in handicaps, and it would be welcome if he could build on that.

Green Power… well I thought he may run well LTO at Ayr but was held up and never in the race. I can only assume he didn’t like the ground, or it just wasn’t his day. If he could get back to the form of his two Ascot runs before that, he would go close in this I think. He’s drawn up against the nearside rail, he can race prominently, and Fanning has been booked…i’d like to think they are going to be right up there and in a ‘no excuses’ position. He was beaten 3L in that decent York race a few starts back and on my maths has around a 16lb swing now with Encrypted, who’s 6/1 here. Clearly he needs to run his race for that to be material, but interesting enough. I couldn’t resist a nibble at his price and hopefully he runs well. The market is speaking for the Fav, who clearly ‘could be anything’ but he is inexperienced and this will be a new test. He could blow them away though. His yard is flying, do well with horses after a break and with those making handicap debut. The form of his debut win couldn’t have worked out better, albeit the form of his next start could have done. He’s an unknown quantity but hopefully he boils over and find this too much, or gets marooned behind horses. Knowing my luck these two will come 2nd, 3rd with the rest nowhere, and i’ll be fetching for a bottle of Bordeaux. And then another one.

Machine Learner…two things caught my eye initially here… the fact he’s one of two in the race with winning course form, and the fact Ryan Moore has been booked, having last ridden the horse in the summer of 2017, to much success. 3 starts back over 14f here he bolted up, showing impressive tactical speed in a race that may not have been run to suit. His next start was a farce of a race that can be ignored, and the run after that may have come too soon, for one who’s been known to have had his issues. That was also a class 2, that’s worked out very very well, and he may enjoy these calmer waters. He is drawn wide here but I think they start up the home straight here (I could be wrong, but the 1m6f start is at the 2f pole up the home straight) and he has plenty of time to get a position. There’s some pace on paper also and I don’t see him having an excuse. But, he may come from the back which is always a risk. 16f is also a question but it’s the furthest he’s gone and he runs as if he may improve further for it. This horse has a touch of class at his best and hopefully his trainer’s good recent form rubs off on him. Plenty in here have questions, inc a few who have yet to do it on turf. Arab Moon and African Jazz dictated their races LTO and went very slow before kicking, and will need to step forward from that, which isn’t impossible, but this is a different test. The fav is running beyond 13f for the first time. He runs as if he’ll enjoy the trip but has stamina to prove and that makes any horse at 5/2 look short to my eyes. IF the selection stays and gets back to his form here three starts back, he won’t be out of the places and I think he’ll win.

Right, I have a train and a plane to catch, enjoy the rest of your Friday.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Irish Raiders

2.50 Hex – Miss Mcilroy (16/1< guide, had had bigger) 11/1

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points

4.35 Hex – Jaunty Thor 4/6

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NOTE:

This Weekend… I’m off to Paris Friday lunchtime for my first trip both there and to Longchamp for two decent days of racing. It’s more an experience than an expectation i’ll be coming home with more money than I left with, but if you have any strong fancies across the cards, do shout. I don’t really have a clue. (no jokes now!)  Thanks to Martin for his LRC debrief, i’ll be noting those down. Any tourist advice gratefully received… I mean I do like eating, and drinking wine,and sometimes champagne, but that’s usually reserved for Worcester!

Anyway, as always i’ll keep disruption to a minimum…you shouldn’t notice a difference to Section 1 and 3 (the ‘core’) Saturday’s post will be up in good time. Sunday’s post will likely be up Sunday morning, and also possibly Monday’s on Monday morning, but I’ll try and get that done late on Sunday. I’ll get holding posts up early enough so you can chat away. Mike (titus/legend) will be sending me the section 1 qualifiers as he always does when i’m on my travels, it’s such a massive help. I’ll be back Monday afternoon, in good enough time to get Tuesday’s content posted before it gets too late. 

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Geegeez Gold... this is the final time i’ll mention this offer within the members’ posts. You can find everything you need in my post HERE>>>

There’s a handful of you out there who may find it transformative/will be right up your street. My video is in that link above also.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

24 Responses

  1. Josh enjoy Paris,the only chance that you will come home with any money is keep away from the Moulin Rouge and the Can Can girls,they will be looking for tipsy(drunk)racegoers to extract their Euros.
    Paris is a beautiful City and no doubt you will go back,watch out for the pigeons with their bombs,sat outside a cafe near the Arc,beautiful lady fantastic dress couple of tables down,heard a scream a pigeon dropped its load she was soaked in poo.
    My advice wear a Sombrero.
    Happy days not for her.

  2. Enjoy the trip. Try to go down the Seine on a boat and The Crazy Horse at night. I used to go there on the Eurostar re work. Watch the pickpockets on the Metro and around Garde Nord.

  3. Another rubbish day on the AW. Two still to come, so fingers crossed. Let’s hope for better at Wolverhampton on Friday. Qualifiers below:
    5.45 Showmethewayavrilo 6/1
    6.15 Fantasy Justifier 6/1
    7.15 Sir Victor 11/1
    7.45 Groveman 4/1
    8.15 Mr Frankie 11/1

    All 1pt win.

    Good Luck

  4. I’ve only been to Paris once – 43 years ago on my honeymoon. It poured with rain all weekend & I found it full of pigeons, beggars & pickpockets! However, I am still married! I’ve always fancied Kew Gardens for the big race, but after the draw I think I’ll go with Capri. I don’t fancy Enable at all – so watch it hose up by a country mile! Enjoy the occasion – as I’m sure you will.

  5. Poor again today with one winner and a couple of places, although a closer form inspection would not have persuaded many to part with their cash. Friday qualifiers:

    14.50 Hexham – Isle of Destiny (54/70 12 months; 52/76 last 30 days) 7/4

    16.35 Hexham – Jaunty Thor (as above) evens

    16.25 Fontwell – Templestatefloresco (41/47 12 months course) 5/2

    17.00 Fontwell – Strumble Head (41/50 30 days) 7/1

    Best of luck
    .

  6. TTS A Team Qualifiers.
    A Honeyball 2.40 Fontwell Ennistown
    M Barnes 3.25 Hexham Louloumills
    4.35 Hexham To Cat DJ

    N Richards 4.00 Hexham Court Dreaming

    Directors Cut one star qualifiers
    N King 3.50 Fontwell Princeton Royale
    5.00 Fontwell Mercers Court

    1. Re Anthony Honeyball – Matt from Geegeez, who has syndicate horses in the stable, did say that although he has only 40 horses in total he thought he had his best lot yet to race this jumps season.

      1. Thanks for the info re Honeyball….I put the qualifiers up from Matt’s list which he was kind enough to put out at no cost so no plaudits for me but to him if they happen to win….the only two that offer e/w value for me are Louloumills @16/1 gen and Top Cat DJ (also in Josh’s stats list) @ 40/1 (lad . WH) being in 8 runner races…the others are shorties in 5 runner races and in price. Not sure about backing the others in singles (my record not good there) but may be worth a multiple for those as Princeton Royale in 3.5 0 Fontwell is 11/2 (Bet 365) All the best.

  7. Enjoy your trip Josh ,
    went the year Sea the stars won 2009 I think, was super weekend but had been to Paris a few times before watching Scotland for my sins! , made even better by having read an article in the Racing post weekender by C. Lemaires agent in how to have a good weekend at the Arc, at the end she said look out for a horse on the Saturday called Rousan , mate and I chuck 30 euros kitty bet on (unknown to each other he has stuck another 40 on and iv went another 20 ) romps in and pays 17’s on pari-mutual so cue Champers .

  8. Jawwaal Ascot Friday 13:50 1pt e/w
    Green Power Ascot Friday 15:00 1pt e/w
    Machine Learner Ascot Friday 16:10 1pt e/w

    1. i pray your on song today Nick the way the cards have fallen these are probably my biggest bets for a long time.
      Jawwaal is in my tracker, in “my stable” on SL and a 2pt win from section and i’m sure you can guess why the other 2 are biggies, is a treble to much to ask for 🙂

  9. Really enjoyed your video on Geegeez Josh. Have taken the plunge and taken the the 7 month offer. Have enjoyed my first fumble

  10. Matt & IO went to the last Arc meeting at Longchamps before they closed for renovations. Frankie won on Golden Horn denying Treve a hat-trick.

    Saturday’s meeting was sparsely attended, but it was great because you could amble around freely, see the parade ring etc, grab some beers and get a feel for the place ahead of the busier Sunday.

    We stayed near La Defense and took a train from there to Suresnes Longchamps station. It’s about a mile walk down to the course from there, but there are plenty of bars along the way, including a little one right outside the station, which was our first and last port of call each day 😉

  11. Gordon Elliott and Richard Johnson double at Hexham, 2.50 Isle Of Destiny and 4.25 Jaunty Thor. It pays 9/2 BOG at present.

    Good luck

    1. Nice drift on the first one, let’s hope the double doesn’t go down because of the 8/15 shot!

  12. Chris M Selections:
    Fontwell:
    14:05 – Mellow Ben (4/1 gen)

    Hexham:
    14:15 – Farocco (7/2 gen)

    Ascot:
    15:00 – Count Otto (15/2 gen)

    Good luck today 🙂

  13. I’m there as well ! I have 2 spare O&T for Saturday and Sunday , if you need them ? I have horse at the arc sale , on Saturday evening ( ardara belle) at st.cloud ( just a very short taxi ride )

  14. I’m there as well ! I have 2 spare O&T for Saturday and Sunday , if you need them ? I have horse at the arc sale , on Saturday evening ( ardara belle) at st.cloud ( just a very short taxi ride )

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