Members Daily Post: 04/10/18 (complete)

Tips x2, Section 1 (comp), test zone, results update (x1), Geegeez Gold

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

JUMPS

Huntingdon

3.35 – Waikiki Waves (hncp hurdles) w2 14 ES I3 G3 8/1 S3 S1+S5  UP

4.10 – Frankie Rapper (micro runs) 5/2 2nd

 

Warwick

4.20 –

Chirico Vallis (m TJC) H3 I3 7/1 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Templehills (m dist) w2 14,30 H1 I1 G1 15/8 S4 

Dandridge (m runs) 30 3/1 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/281,94p, +12.4) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)

 

Daily Tips

4.10 Hunt – Our Reward – 1 point EW– 9/1 (gen)  UP oh well that looked good through most of that. Clouted one, recovered, but his final howler up the home straight knocked stuffing out of him and cost him 3rd I think, albeit clearly not the victory, although hit it hard and lost all momentum. Pace held up in race before, winner hitting front long way out having been handy, so was there to be won from the front, if good enough. He wasn’t. You have to jump. Odd round, pinged most of them bar two. I can’t believe he didn’t place there, given make up turning for home. 

4.20 War – Chirico Vallis – 1 point win  (non runner!) 

That’s all for today, 08.58, write up…

Our Reward…no doubt there will be a non runner and this one will come a gallant 3rd but I thought he was overpriced here and IF he ran his race, he would go very close to winning this and i’d be disappointed if he was out of the places. This is his second run back over hurdles which is where he’s done all his winning. I’m not 100% convinced he took to chasing but had the odd decent placed effort. Unlike most in here I don’t think stamina is a question for him, his yard are going well enough (plenty of placed horses in recent days), and I thought he would try and make all, kick for home and with any luck just keeps galloping. He drops in class from that last run and this is a much weaker race to my eyes. He also takes a slight drop in trip and I think those two things found him out, having responded to pressure and led until 2 out or so, and Jack wasn’t hard on him once he started to fade. He’s been dropped 5lb for that and also now gets an extra 5 off his back from Page Fuller. She knows how to make all in this sort of race also, and wind it up from the front. The trainer is 1/9,5p in C4 handicap hurdles at the track, trainer/jockey are 2/8,5p in 25-26f handicap hurdles. Like every horse in here he’s a tad risky, but I get the price. Nothing in here is what you’d call ultra consistent. He does have the ability somewhere. 5 hurdle runs ago he ran well in a decent C4 novice hurdle at Aintree. Admittedly that was in 2016 but he’s mainly been chasing since then. He got outpaced there but led until the last. There were 5 multiple winners around him that day, and some very good ones, now rated 139, 124, 128, 145, 118. If he puts it all in here, I don’t think anything will catch him, so at 9s, I wanted to have a go. I also think everything else has as many questions and their prices look short…

Hepijeu is having the 37th start of his life and this is the furthest he’s run over. He’s also up in class from LTO but he’s in winning form and that may count for plenty.   His trainer is 13/34,17p + 12 with LTO winners in recent years, which is worth noting. But he’s short given i’m not sure he’ll stay and he’s 1/19 in C4 handicaps. Frankie Rapper has fitness to prove, his yard is quiet enough but have had plenty of places. His win two starts back was in a crawl and he couldn’t back that up here NTO. He can take a fierce grip and hopefully he doesn’t get home here. He might, and he’s lightly raced, but again that price is far too short to my eyes. His Dream is like his trainer, very inconsistent. 0/5,0p in class 4, and he’s another that has stamina to prove…he didn’t look to get home two starts back over 23f at Worcester and his recent win was a C5 novice handicap hurdle. But, he’s 1/8 over hurdles and there should be more to come, and the trainer does well here. But again, 9/2 didn’t seem wildly overpriced and he comes here after an abject effort LTO.

Mamoo..well he’s sure to stay I think albeit this more galloping track is no Newton Abbot and he can throw in a poor run, as with LTO. But he would be a threat if he got back to that run 2 starts ago. I was happy to leave the rest. The McPherson horse would be of some interest back to his best but has fitness to prove and is now a 12 race maiden.

So, it seems weak enough to my eyes and is about whether the selection runs his race. At his best, or maybe even repeating that last run, should be good enough to put him in the mix here and if he’s leading over the last couple and is responding to pressure, that should be that. Easy, on paper at least! Best of luck.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

The Doyler

4.00 L – Attainment 3/1

6.45 C – Natty Night 50/1

Jumps

D McCain (14/1<)

3.35 Hunt – Innicastle Lad 14/1

Paddy Brennan (14/1<)

2.00 Hunt – Hurricane Rita 10/1

Autumn Trainers

NTD (22/1<)

2.10 W – Topofthecotswolds 6/4

2.45 W – Ballyellis 7/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update

You can find a full results spreadsheet HERE>>>

My special thanks to member Danny B for pulling this together and keeping it updated moving forwards. Included are all my daily tips from start of July (not great reading just yet!!) and then Section 1 strategies, and then an update for the time period. These are from the 17th Sept to end of the month. You can click through the different sheets at the bottom.

Flat S6, Jumps S1 + S2A (1 point win) + S5 are also recorded to BFSP. Everything else is to the morning price I add at around 8am each day, or BOG and with R4s taken account of. The BFSP figure does not included subtraction of commission, which i’ll do when updated the main results sheets.

I’ve now to update the ‘where should you start’ link (last updated to end 16th Sept) in the Key, and then the two main strategy results links which were last updated on 15th July, and bring them up to date to start of October.

To hammer home again… on the Jumps side i’d be starting with S1 and S2A (ew betting ensures shorter losing runs but you can judge for yourself on the results) Those two have been very profitable since start of 2017. Clearly they are low win SR and hence long losing runs at times, but start small if you wish and build up, and of vital importance is that they work so well to BFSP. If those two can pull in +100 points to BFSP each year (and that’s at the low end based on history to date) to £2.50 bets that subs more than taken care of, which is always in my mind. And in time, fingers crossed, to £5 bets that’s a decent holiday/Christmas taken care of. With luck. Let’s hope they carry on as they have been.

Logically S3A# should continue to tick along and is a more select approach, S3A (all elite squad ES+) has been doing fine but that is solely based on my stats, whereas S3A# has that insurance factor of the ratings pointers element, which give context to the horse. That’s the same with S1, which is why i’d like to think there’s no excuse for that not ticking along over time, as it has done so far.

We also then have jumps w1 + w2  (won LTO and/or two starts ago). That has shown great promise.

That ‘portfolio’ is where my eyes would be drawn if wanting some strategies/systems to back, and I would start at £2.50 / £5 bets, no more, if just beginning, and be patient/build up over time.

Flat S6 has stolen the show on that front, as hoped, and again that is similar to Jumps S1, and in theory should just keep ticking along, with the eyes on profit/ROI and not number of winners, as being the most important!

In addition…Danny is now also tracking the ‘trainer in form’ symbols…Flat 14, 14,30, 30   and same for Jumps. With any luck, in time, it may be clear there’s something to exploit from those also, and in truth I should have been looking at those a while back, but those results will now build up.

*

If you missed it…

Repeated from free post/email… you’re what I call engaged punters, so it may make sense that some of you would be more interested than some…

How I use Geegeez Gold
You will be seeing a lot in the next few days about Matt’s special winter season ticket offer for Geegeez Gold. 
If you’ve ever wanted to take your betting to the next level, or enjoy your racing even more, this is an opportunity not to be missed. It goes live tomorrow. 
Many of you will relish this opportunity. 
Whether you have an interest in trying it out or not, I have recorded a video whereby I whizz through how I use Geegeez Gold. 
In it I look at 5 key ‘starting point’ areas that add so much more to my experience of racing and my ability to win. 
These include the ‘instant expert’ tool, Trainers In Form, The Report Icons, PACE (front runners) and Hot Form
I have tried to ensure it’s useful to all of you, whether you try Gold or not. Hopefully there’s something in it that you can take away and apply to your own betting, whatever racing tools you use. 
If you want to improve your betting on the horses, or are just intrigued about how others think about the game, then do give it a watch below. 
Do let me know what you think. Below the video is the link to the free qualifiers report for Trainer Track Stats 2018/19
(and clearly I need to up my game with how I use it, given the pitiful daily tips pile! But, Nick uses it!! 🙂 ) 

 

Trainer Track Stats 2018/19 FREE REPORT HERE>>>

FREE Qualifiers Report, for the qualifiers from the report above, HERE>>> 

(do bookmark this, and use it everyday. Mad that Matt’s giving that away for free all season. But then again, he’s always set the bar for freebies/value)

*

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

20 Responses

  1. The plus 40 percenters were a total washout on Wednesday. It must surely be time for a return to form……tomorrow the qualifiers are:

    14.55 Lingfield – Jalaad (40/50 30 days) 7/4

    16.30 Lingfield – Lunar Bear (40/70 12 months course) 20/1, Bubbly (40/40 12 months course) 7/1, La Isla Bonita (40/70 12 months) 20/1

    17.05 Lingfield – In Demand (40/40 12 months course) 8/1, Voluminous (54/54 30 days) 7/2

    14.45 Warwick – Damier (41/50 12 months) 66/1

    15.50 Warwick – Play the Ace (45/54 30 days) 3/1

    16.40 Huntingdon – Carry On (40/50 12 months) 3/1

    20.45 Chelmsford – Aguerooo (60/60 12 months) 12/1

    21.15 Chelmsford – Storm Trooper (60/60 12 months) 16/1

    Best of luck with all your bets (especially if you back any of these!)

  2. We had one winner at 8/1 BOG on Tuesday for +2pts. Frustratingly we had three second places tonight but nothing crossing the line in front so -7pts.

    Two AW meetings on Thursday at Lingfield and Chelmsford. Qualifiers below:
    Lingfield
    1.50 Noble Peace 9/1
    4.30 Seprani 9/1
    5.05 High Wells 10/1
    5.35 Roundabout Magic 4/1

    Chelmsford
    5.45 Lippy Lady 25/1 (EW)
    6.15 Material Girl 10/1
    7.45 Molten Lava 6/1
    8.15 Lulu Star 13/2
    8.45 Penny Pot Lane 4/1
    9.15 Spirit of Zebedee 11/2

    All 1pt win except where noted EW.

    Good Luck

  3. I saw Matt from Geegeez last night and he said that he is opening up Geegeez to new members today.

    1. Well spotted Martin!! 🙂 He sure is. (I’ll assume you haven’t had time yet to scrawl through section 4 above!)

      1. I have now and they are now open for business!

        I will post some notes from the ARC meeting preview later.

  4. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    W 4.55 – Milan of Crystal on 1st run @ 7
    C 9.15 – Spirit of Zebedee on 3rd run @ 5
    GL
    Mike

  5. Chris M Selections:
    Nothing today, no value and a very small shortlist. Hopefully find some bets over the weekend.

    Yesterday was a “close but no cigar” situation, all three selections placed. Al Kout claimed a dh 2nd but lead for most of the race only to be beaten in the final furlong, although he did rally to claim that 2nd place. He maybe does not like the trip or maybe the jockey could have been forceful to get him forward when it counted. Sienna Says was always chasing the fav there, the fav never looked like getting beat here. Ofcourseiwill, caught my eye with his win over 3m in a PTP but it was his first run at this distance since and he was not ready for it. Jumped well but in the end set it up for an easy win for one of the 3 co-favs. Although he did keep on well to claim 2nd and may be one to watch over 3m in the future.

  6. Twister Yankee at Warwick:

    2.10 Topofthecotswolds
    2.45 Ballyellis
    4.20 Templehills
    4.55 Hoponandsee

    Good luck.

  7. hi Josh, 420 Hunt. Our Reward… not sure you would want to lead in this race, pace angles on geegeez suggest otherwise albeit small sample size. Pace pushers seem to be favoured in the chases rather than the hurdle races at this track. Thats not saying it cant win…..

    1. Oh unless a strong headwind I don’t care for that… i did note that, but it is a small sample, and if I think a horse will get an easy lead over this trip, and they’ll gallop/stay, i’m not letting that put me off. Lone front runners over sticks usually best bet, especially in a small field…it’s just about judging the pace etc. I suspect many may go too slow and get done by speed etc. We shall see. I didn’t think much to it, but then I said that last time you made such a comment and you were proved right, so who knows!

  8. London Racing Club preview notes for this coming weekend, Longchamp and at home.

    On the panel – Ed Chamberlin (ITV), Paul Kealy (Racing Post) and Nick Smith (Director of racing at Ascot). Also in attendance Lee Mottershead and Mayy Bisogno.

    Longchamp

    Saturday – Prix De Cadran – worst group one this year, more like a group three. Call The Wind should win if turning up. PK
    Prix Dollar – The going is expected to be good with the weather set fair. However they may water? Night To Behold should go well. NS

    Sunday – Marcel Boussac – Kieran Fallon likes Dubai Beauty a lot as a horse. PK
    Lagadere – Beyond Reason can go well. Aiden O’Brien is coming into form and so Anthony Van Dyke is an obvious pick but may not be value at a short price. NS
    Abbaye – Baatash is much better than these on his day. He may not just like York? He is the best sprinter in the world on his day. This course should suit him. PK
    Mabs Cross can go well. PK
    There is a big stand side bias in this race and in a big field you should only back a horse drawn close to the rail. NS
    Beware as this race can be won by a rag! PK

    Prix Opera – Wild Illusion should win this. Handles the track, will be OK on the going and the trip is OK. With You has strong form. NS
    The Foray – Low draw required. NS

    The ARC – Not considered to be a great renewal by the panel. You need to be drawn stalls 1 to 7. PK
    Will Enable bounce after his first run back. PK
    Gosden has confidence in Enable and Frankie rates him very highly and much better than Cracksman. – EC Has stall six.

    Sea Of Class – 3YO filly. Has it to prove in a strong run race. Has not run a fast time in a race yet and not use to big fields. PK
    Got to step up on previous efforts to figure. NS
    Haggas is not as keen to run in this race as the owners are. EC

    Waldgeist – Has improved this year but not value at hte price. NS

    Cloth Of Stars – 2nd last year but been out of ofrm. The horse needs a fast run race and has been primed for this. Take 20/1+ or bet without Enable. PK and NS

    Kew Gardens – is a good horse but is up against it here. PK
    Has a good profile, back without Enable. NS

    Capri – has ability, back at circa 50/1. PK

    UK racing this Saturday

    Limato goes to Ascot instead of Longchamp. NS

    Marney James will win if it runs in the first race at Ascot (I think but check where it turns up). Is an improving 3YO. PK

    Also get on Wind Chimes if it runs at Newmarket. PK

    Back Ripp Orf each way id running at Ascot.

    If Spanish City runs at Ascot then back. NS

    I also have some comments for Champions Day but I will post them next week.

      1. Usually circa 100 to 120 and that triples for the Cheltenham preview. The bar prices are good for central London and lots of horse racing related networking takes place.

    1. Ha, the betting gods will want to make it testing for me. That horrid jump down straight has cost him a place, and he looked far from happy with life after it also. Annoying.

  9. TTS ‘A’Team Qualifiers:
    A Honeyball Fontwell 2.40 Ennistown.
    M Barnes Hexham 3.25 Louloumills
    4.35 Top Cat DJ
    N Richards Hexham 4.00 Court Dreaming.

    Directors Cut one star qualifiers.
    N King Fontwell 3.50 Princeton Royale
    ” 5.00 Mercers Court

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.