Members Daily Post: 03/10/18 (complete)

Results Update, Tips x2 + write ups,. Section 1 (complete), test zone,

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc


1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack



2.00- Fancy Dress (2YO) 14,30 10/1 

3.35 – 

Socialites Red (all hncps) 18/1 

Stewardess (3yo+ hncp,micro class/age) w2 33/1 

4.10 –

Music Seeker (all hncps) G1 10/1 S6 

Sioux Frontier (3yo+, m class/age) 20/1 

5.15 – 

Ebitda (all hncps) I3 18/1 

Musharrif (all hncps) H3 I3 8/1 

Tan (m dist/class) G3 15/2 







4.30 – Fields of Fortune (all hncps) w1 I3 5/1 




H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  –  … or failing that… 



2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/278,93p, +14.9) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)


Daily Tips

3.55 Notts – Syrian Pearl – 1 point EW – 9/1 (gen) UP (-2) 12/1 (4th) 2x non runners, thankfully both ok. You just have to smile in this game. Pace was the right side, it held up, sadly she had to switch at lest twice but that’s the risk and I knew how she’d run, didn’t cost win but 3rd would have been welcome.  

4.40 Notts – Paddy A – 1 point EW – 11/1 (bet365/BV) 10/1 (gen) 2nd (+1.5 ) 10/1>8/1 , no complaints there, winner had plenty left/best handicapped on day, mine had every chance, good ride. -0.5 on the day.

that’s the lot for today, note the rare EW!… 09.12, write ups…


I think part of me is still annoyed at seemingly being the only person not to tip Redarna yesterday! He was high up on my list and anyone with Geegeez/Instant Expert would/should have been slapped around the face with that one. As Nick said to me, if it looks like a duck, sounds like a duck,it’s a duck. He was the only one proven in conditions really, esp class/trip. By the time I got to him he was 8s, and I misjudged the ‘value’, as that was still a good price, in hindsight of course. I talked myself out of it knowing he’d need some luck with his late rattle, and the sea of 3 year olds perturbed me a bit, albeit again on reflection they were moderate/not exactly in form/had it to prove. Red was 2/2 over CD, dropped back in class, Jimmy S back on and it was clearly a plan, given his liking for the place. When they leap out like that, you should be on at that price, alas when you’re treading water/struggling to kick on all year, they appear to get missed. Still, at least most of us were on with any luck, every cloud. When I go for Syrian Pearl at a similar price in a 16 runner race, clearly something was off with my judgement on that one…

I’ve gone EW on these today and i’ll get onto that in a moment. I don’t know whether I need to change my mindset…as an EW mindset is different to win only I think, analysis wise. Maybe. Outwith any insurance policy/shorter losing runs etc with no return. I’ve always been anti EW and i’m not 100% sure. In my mind I have a view that bookies generally don’t like EW betting but that’s unscientific and probably nonsense, esp if a morning bettor after 9am. I do think taking decent prices (esp when standout with 1/2 bookies) the evening before is asking for trouble but again, maybe that’s rubbish. If you have any thoughts on any of that, do fire away in the comments, i’d be intrigued to see what some of you think. In the end, if you’re successful, I suppose the bookies are going to get you eventually, so maybe it doesn’t matter, it’s just a question of time. Somehow, for whatever reason, i still have my original Bet365 account, and it’s like my canary down the mine. They’ve been taken for plenty so far this year but I don’t bet the evening before. Anyway, onto today’s runners…

Syrian Pearl… I would like to think this has been the plan all year, and low and behold she ran her best race for some time last time out. Funny that. In 2015 she came a close second in this race off 79, and with some luck in running would have won. In 2016 she didn’t make a mistake and won it off 82, a shade cosily. Last year she won the race again off 79, again cosily enough come the line, and her she rocks up again, looking for the hat-trick. Clearly she’ll now come 5th (or 4th if non runners) and leave me throwing things at the wall, but there’s plenty to like about her chances in this given that race context, and the fact she’s one of the few with a win at this class. She does come with a late rattle but has plenty of pace her side, enough for me not to use that as an excuse. My tip from LTO, Casterbridge, should give that side a good toe into the race. He’s yet to prove he stays 6f and this ground could be lively enough. Hopefully he doesn’t run that well (faded in it last year) and then rocks up in the next couple of weeks, back down in class, with some cut, and makes all at a decent price. Belated Breath and Admiralty also like to get on with it, middle to low. She’s won this race from draw high and drawn low and on this ground I hope it’s more about pace, than track bias, but if high somehow dominate then I may be in trouble. IF she runs as she has in this race for the previous 3 years, I couldn’t see how she wouldn’t place at worst. Gulp. I do also fear the fav a bit , Saaheq, who’s progressive and could be even better over this trip. He will race more handy and probably won’t be stopping. Maybe a 1-2! On form I thought she’d have the beating of the rest in here comfortably enough, and while there are a few LTO winners, they all need to step forward somewhat. Based on what we know, I thought she should be clear second fav in here and was prob 2-3 points too big. She clearly relished this CD and gets a strong pace to aim at, probably for the first time this season.

Paddy A… IF this one gets back to his two wins in July, over CD and then at Haydock, he won’t be very far away here at all. With the jockeys claim he’s 3lb below that last win, and GM is riding well/has got better as the season has gone on, as you’d hope with a 5lb claimer… 5/26,10p in the last 14 days. Ian Williams remains in cracking form, 9/35,16p in the last 14 days, he’s 6/17,7p at the track in the last year and has a very good record with those returning within 10 days of their last start. (this one is 11 days, but his stats gave me encouragement on that front) …

Actually, those stats are worth pausing on… with all flat handicappers returning within 10 days he’s 31/110,49p in the last 5 years. 17/45,23p in the last 2 years. With ALL handicappers (AW/Flat/Jumps) returning within 10 days he’s 87/324,152 places, +83 SP.. I’ll have a dip back into those soon, as there may be a micro angle in there somewhere, albeit the top level figures are bloody good.

Back to the horse… he won those two races in July a shade cosily and i think there are excuses for every run since.. he ran over 16f after that in a race where the runaway leader just didn’t stop, but he plugged on for second. He then ran in the mud at Goodwood and i’ll assume that he didn’t handle heavy, and/or there’s a chance he didn’t handle the track. He then ran in a small field over 14f at Chelmsford and unsurprisingly got outpaced before plugging on. I’m not sure being on the turn there would suit his strengths. Last time out at Newmarket he ran in the Ces trial over 18f, again a runaway leader who didn’t come back, from the same yard. The horse made an ok effort 3 from home and was up there in the chasing pack. Having watched it back he looked unbalanced there going into the dip and certainly wasn’t given a hard time once obvious his chance of placing had gone. He returns to a pan flat track here. The niggles… well he is drawn in 15 but the 1m6f start here is up the home straight and 2f from the finishing post and a bit more until the first turn. His jockey will have options and if he’s stuck 4 wide going into that bend, i’ll take everything back I’ve just said about the jockey! 🙂 Hopefully he can get out and get a mid field position, or he’ll take him back to the inside rail. He is usually held up off the pace and hold up horses do well over this CD, albeit from a limited sample. There is some pace on paper and he has a long straight in which to get out, and get motoring. It could be 1 or 2 have flown by then, hence some caution with the EW approach. And I also fear that Nibras Galaxy. The Ellison horse has to prove he handles good/firm, but will be a danger if he does. The same can be said for the fellows horse and this is some test for one on his 5th start, and he’s yet to win a race. I’m hoping the selections liking/experience of the track is bonus here and I still think he should have more to offer in these conditions. The visor also returns and he seems to like changes of headgear. It could be he’s just out of form and I’ve read recent runs incorrectly, but were he arriving here on the back of those July runs, clearly he wound’t be a double figure price, and he was far from stretched in those. Hopefully they go too hard and he sweeps past in the final 2f, he won’t be stopping over this CD, if in form. Only one way to find out.

Best of luck.


3.Micro System Test Zone


R Fell

8.30 Newc – Sienna Says 10/1


4.Any general messages/updates etc


Results Update

You can find a full results spreadsheet HERE>>>

My special thanks to member Danny B for pulling this together and keeping it updated moving forwards. Included are all my daily tips from start of July (not great reading just yet!!) and then Section 1 strategies, and then an update for the time period. These are from the 17th Sept to end of the month. You can click through the different sheets at the bottom.

Flat S6, Jumps S1 + S2A (1 point win) + S5 are also recorded to BFSP. Everything else is to the morning price I add at around 8am each day, or BOG and with R4s taken account of. The BFSP figure does not included subtraction of commission, which i’ll do when updated the main results sheets.

I’ve now to update the ‘where should you start’ link (last updated to end 16th Sept) in the Key, and then the two main strategy results links which were last updated on 15th July, and bring them up to date to start of October.

To hammer home again… on the Jumps side i’d be starting with S1 and S2A (ew betting ensures shorter losing runs but you can judge for yourself on the results) Those two have been very profitable since start of 2017. Clearly they are low win SR and hence long losing runs at times, but start small if you wish and build up, and of vital importance is that they work so well to BFSP. If those two can pull in +100 points to BFSP each year (and that’s at the low end based on history to date) to £2.50 bets that subs more than taken care of, which is always in my mind. And in time, fingers crossed, to £5 bets that’s a decent holiday/Christmas taken care of. With luck. Let’s hope they carry on as they have been.

Logically S3A# should continue to tick along and is a more select approach, S3A (all elite squad ES+) has been doing fine but that is solely based on my stats, whereas S3A# has that insurance factor of the ratings pointers element, which give context to the horse. That’s the same with S1, which is why i’d like to think there’s no excuse for that not ticking along over time, as it has done so far.

We also then have jumps w1 + w2  (won LTO and/or two starts ago). That has shown great promise.

That ‘portfolio’ is where my eyes would be drawn if wanting some strategies/systems to back, and I would start at £2.50 / £5 bets, no more, if just beginning, and be patient/build up over time.

Flat S6 has stolen the show on that front, as hoped, and again that is similar to Jumps S1, and in theory should just keep ticking along, with the eyes on profit/ROI and not number of winners, as being the most important!

In addition…Danny is now also tracking the ‘trainer in form’ symbols…Flat 14, 14,30, 30   and same for Jumps. With any luck, in time, it may be clear there’s something to exploit from those also, and in truth I should have been looking at those a while back, but those results will now build up.




Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

37 Responses

  1. U.S. Racing Tip Tuesday evening – Thistledown race 7, 9.40 UK, Golden Afleet, 7/1 now, 1 point each way. If a non runner then Totellyouthetruth 2 points win.

    Good luck.

  2. No winners on Monday so -3pts. Kempton still in progress. AW racing from Newcastle on Wednesday. Qualifiers as follows:
    5.30 Cry Wolf 6/1
    6.00 Deansgate 6/1 & Naples bay 8/1
    7.30 Cliff 9/1
    8.00 Duke Cosimo 4/1
    8.30 Displaying Amber 7/1 & Star Cracker 7/1

    All 1pt win. Small rev f/c on the pairs if you wish.

    Good Luck

  3. Mujassam Salisbury Wednesday 16:20 1pt e/w-Looked overpriced considering he drops down in class here and wasn’t a million miles away in a hot enough race LTO. Only 1lb above his last winning mark. They re-apply the blinkers which brought about a win the last time that’s happened. There is also a reasonable chance he gets an easy lead and is drawn on the correct side. I just thought 14s is too big.

    1. Thanks for sharing your thoughts on your what code you think you have most success with Nick. I think your right in the fact its hard to judge if your constantly tweaking your approach. Not that thats a bad thing, its obviously working out well, but interested to know your thoughts on wether you think there is there a one size fits all approach that will work on both codes or do you have different methods for selecting flat horses than jumps selections?

      Personally I seem to have more success with flat racing, even though i prefer watching NH, but have changed my approach this last year so will try and analyse jumps races in the same way as I’ve done this year to see if I have more success, but my gut feel is they should be looked at slightly differently. You have to factor in theres more incident in jumps due to its nature and as such its a bit more unpredictable than the flat and as such your more likely to get unlucky, although I guess you can argue you could be equally as lucky, but jumps horses have to get more things right than flat horses to win, so finding winners maybe harder as often 1 mistake could make the difference between winning and losing which isn’t there in flat racing.

      Could be spouting complete rubbish and its late but interested to know what others think!

      1. But over the jumps horses and jockeys have longer to sort things. Look at where on the flat jockeys bury a horse and then have to push and shove when the sprinting starts at the end of the race. You see horses merrily jogging along at the back of the field as if they are out for a stroll and then stat weaving through a field hoping the others will come back to them. Over the jumps you have to jump and stay and then you can race.
        What Nick is very good at is finding value with horses that will like the course, distance and going and ignores recency bias. I can do that re Golf but not horse racing to a good standard.

      2. There is still some similarities between flat and jumps. It’s not a secret that I favour front runners on the flat given that it eliminates any luck in running scenerios particularly at tracks which traditionally favour them and the same would apply on the jumps given you can escape all sorts of carnage that happens behind you by being ahead of it so hopefully it works as well as it has on the flat.

  4. One winner, one place on Tuesday. Wednesday’s qualifiers :

    13.30 Nottingham – Indigo Angel (42/64 12 months) 9/1

    15.40 Cork – Spiord (40/66 12 months course) 5/1

    16.45 Cork – Chateau Le Fleur (40/66 12 months course) 7/1

    Best of luck.

    1. Indigo a big drifter Mark, now 18/1 with Ladbrokes.
      I recall Andrew Mount of Racing and Football Outlook highlighting the excellent record of Ralph Beckett’s unraced fillies at Nottingham. Fancy Dress in the 2.00 is a qualifier and is available at 10/1. October is also one of the months when it is profitable to back all RB’s runners blind – what can possibly go wrong ???

      1. Thanks Johnny, don’t mind a drifter so have had a small EW on Indigo regardless (fools rush in etc etc). Thanks for the Beckett angle,will follow you in for fun.

          1. Thanks Mark, good luck with your two at Cork.
            The 2.00 did not go according to plan so back to the drawing board!

  5. Nice winner for TTS on Tuesday.

    Wednesday’s possibles are both from the A list

    15:25 Bangor- Realms Of Fire
    16:00 Bangor- I’m Always Trying

      1. Both A & B and they’ll be highlighted which is which, Josh.

        I did try to post to this effect earlier, but it hasn’t appeared for some reason.

    B 2.55 – Hands of Stone on 4th run @ 14
    No 3.35 – Casterbridge on 1st run @ 20
    No 5.15 – Foxtrot Knight on 5th and 6th run @ 16
    Nc 7.30 – Jessie Allen on 1st run @ 14
    Stats on end of yesterdays post.
    September ticked along with the Daily but the Fest runners didn’t play ball although quite a few were on first runs of nh season.

  7. Thanks for the through the card yesterday josh, I managed to have iolani myself in the first added to your sonic & oak vintage so 3 winners from 6 races & a good day around
    Appreciated as always

    1. Well done Harry, that is a good day! Sonic was 3s when I posted, so hopefully you beat 6/4 but was evident he’d get an easy lead. I read some disturbing things on twitter about the Charles Byrnes horse… apparently 2k at a time waiting to lay him after about the first flight, and what would you know, eventually the tac went, jockey looking down apparently as they headed out for 2nd circuit. Haven’t watched it and such things are hard to get away with on the machine these days, but smells dodgy apparently! Anyway.
      And Oak Vintage..well the flip side, that was shorter when posted and drifted to 3s.
      Anyway, sounds like a profitable day and three winners to cheer on any card is good going, whatever the price when odds against.

    3.50 Chynna BOG 2/1
    5.25 Blaine BOG 11/1
    5.15 Captain Lars BOG 9/4
    6.00 Gun Case BOG 15/2
    8.30 Another Angel BOG 3/1

  9. Chris M Selections:
    16:00 – Ofcourseiwill (15/2 gen)

    17:30 – Al Kout (4/1 gen)
    20:30 – Sienna Says (11/1 bet365&betfair, 10/1 gen)

    Finally some bets to kick start October, looking to pick up where I left off at the weekend. Good luck with any bets 🙂

  10. It looks hard today, plenty of runners at the lower levels.
    I like Carnwennan, 4.40 Not, at circa 9/1. 1 point each way. The horse is still improving and will be suited by the distance of the race.
    Mr Feane brings three over from Ireland to Newcastle; 6.00 Curly Girl, 7.30 Billyfairplay and 8.30 Pavlichenko. I will out them in a 1 point Yankee with Improve in the 7.00.

    Good luck.

  11. Josh re your comments on EW – I have had much more success since using EW more as it gives me the confidence to back horses I simply wouldn’t risk as win only. Consequently I have had bigger priced winners and less long losing runs. I think confidence is a big thing when parting with your hard-earned.

    1. yep i feel you may have hit the nail on the head there. Something for me to ponder. I need to improve something anyway. And maybe that tweak, more to mindset than anything linked to points you make, could be it.

  12. A long time ago I had a flat season where I did e/w doubles taking on short priced favourites with value in fields of 8 to 11 runners . Consistently the place double won and covered stakes and when both won it was 🙂 In a sign of things to come my then independent local bookmaker used to greet me with the welcome shout of “Here he comes the e/w thief” and then take my bets Corals / Mecca (yes that long ago) simply banned me
    Moral is that e/w can be a very potent weapon and Nick’s tipping this season shows that it gives you cover and confidence to back at odds where you might think twice if it was win only

  13. Hi Josh… RE : eachway betting…my personal view being an amateur is that it depends on the price and if it is in a race where 1/4 or 1/5 of the odds are given and if the horse itself has a reasonable chance of being placed in a race of 8 or more runners….if below 8 runners then in my view there is no value….(you can back without the fav etc if that is your choice if the fav too short, rather than e/w)…I personally back e/w as I prefer backing at bigger prices and have no problem backing several horses in one race if I think I can make a profit , no matter how small….gd each way bets for me are where trainers have a good record in a particular race and the horse they run has been marked up bigger than % strike rate……I don’t back each way just because the horse is a big price or if I want to get the fav beat…I do not like backing favs or horses at a short price (to be successful at the latter you have to have a good % strike rate and I am not that good! and short price multiples are very difficult to land)…..statistically I think I am right in saying that overall the first five in the betting are likely to win and favs win about 30% of all races in both codes….I stand corrected if this is not the case……. so every other horse in a race has a 70% of winning so the odds for e/w backing offer value if you can find the right horse at the right price in the right race….I look for well handicapped horses (horses that are well below there last winning mark and have recently shown some recent gd form that hints at a revival) over 10/1 as a rough guide with good trainer stats in that race and the horse has a good record over distance, going and class…on the flat it does not matter if on turf or AW. as long as the horse or sire has a good record at the distance and on the going…over the jumps i am not a fan of hdcp hurdles especially C6, C5 races as these are notoriously unpredictable, especially in Ireland so Hdcp chases C4 or above are better….low grade flat racing and northern tracks (sorry if that offends) I also find difficult (Ripon is a good example as this has undulations I think which does give horses that have done well there an advantage so any horse that runs well there or any trainer that has a good record is a plus especially if their horses are well hdcpd)… C4 or above on the flat is better for consistency of horses performance when looking for each way value….There are gd e/w bets in C6 and C5 races but the horse has to be well hdcp and the trainer has to have a good record in such races and the price has to be right…..min 5/1 to break even at 5th of the odds and small profit at 1/4 the odds…hope this is useful…all the best.

  14. Josh on backing each way I think nicks bets are a perfect example of each way betting very consistent puts he selections up early so the price is good. Most punters are just not consistent enough to do this then they can lose more money. If you play back the race replays for nicks selections you will see the logic there and feel comftable about each way backing. That said I have backed paddy a each way because he looks solid

    1. I have nothing against each way but when is it value at 1/5 the odds for double your stake? I think that it all depends on the race. If it is ultra competitive I do not see the value in each way. I particularly cant see in the value where they have 6 places but then shave the odds of the horses. However if there are 3 or 4 in front of the rest in a 8+ runner field then yes I can see it.
      Just my view based upon my experiences. An example of win only where it comes off is Bacchus and the grey horse that won over fences that Josh put up at 50/1 both, win only. I accept there are counter examples where each way was better. But over a year or two?

  15. One unexplored area of EW betting are fields of seven runners or less (no non runners) as the place markets before the off tend to offer ‘value’ compared to industry prices or win exchange prices.

  16. Something to watch if you wish…how I use Geegeez Gold… is a link below the video to the page where Matt is posting TTS qualifiers for free this season, which is a bonus! and saves Chris above a job…

    Does touch on Redarna, I mean he really did jump out and smack you around the face. Ahem. But also a look at Trainers in form / report icons/ Pace/ Hot form… throw in ‘class droppers’, jockey switches, etc into the mix and that should be a potent mix. I know a few of you are Gold users, including Nick (hint hint haha) amongst other things, but Matt is doing a winter season ticket off from tomorrow and i’m sure it may interest some of you. Given it’s a set of tools, it’s clearly a bit different from what i do here etc…

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