Members Daily Post: 02/10/18 (complete)

No tips, Section 1 (comp) , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT

Ayr

3.15 – 

Zebulon (micro dist) 16/1 

Chaplin Bay (m dist) 11/1 

3.45 – Redarna (m class) H3 I3 10/1 

4.20 – Saint Equiano (m runs) w1 ES+ H1 I1 G3 11/2 S1 S2 S3A# S4 

4.55 – Im Improving (m dist) G3 10/1 

5.55 – Canadian George (m runs) ES+ H1 I3 G1 4/1 S1 S2 S3A# S4 

 

 

JUMPS

Southwell

4.35 – Fleeting Visit (all hncps + m class) w1 I3 G1 5/1 S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

5.10 – Delirious Love (all hncps + m class) I3 G3 4/1 S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

 

Sedgefield

3.35 – 

Lucky Robin (m age) w2 w1 H3 I3 3/1 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Beach Break (m dist move) w2 w1 H1 I1 G3 15/8 S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

 

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/278,93p, +14.9) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)

None Today

I’ve looked and looked but can’t find anything to tempt me in. I would have tipped Granny Roz at Ayr I think, to make all against the stands rail, but sadly she was pulled out when I was 10 minutes into looking at the race.

I did look at LTO tip Cosmopolitan Queen in the 8.45 Kempton. She has to prove she stays and is up to C4 now. It was a poor run LTO but maybe she did need it… for those of you who like to note such things, D Elsworth is 7/33,11p, +138 BFSP with flat handicappers (inc nurseries) wearing 1st blinkers. On that basis alone she may be worth an interest bet but wasn’t enough there for me to tip her and they clearly think she needs them now.

Best of luck with any bets.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

4.20 A – Presidential 11/1

Jumps

D McCain (14/1<)

3.35 Sed – Beach Break 15/8

Paddy Brennan (14/1<)

2.55 South – River of Intrigue

Irish Raiders (16/1< guide, been a few 20s+ at ‘Festivals)

3.35 Sed – Viking Hoard 5/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results update to follow asap

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

38 Responses

  1. Hi josh
    Congratulations on really super, watched it on tv whilst at haydock. Just a gentle reminder if you have time for a through the card for Sedgefield tomorrow would really appreciate it
    Cheers
    Harry

    1. Hi Harry, yep i’d completely forgotten! I’ll have time to have a quick flick through after the usual morning blog routine.
      Josh

    2. Harry…
      I’d take these thoughts with a pinch of salt, an awful card really, the GF has ensured small fields etc and looks trappy fare. But, if you must…

      2.00 – Smart Ruler
      2.30 – Sonic
      3.05 /
      3.35 – Beach Break
      4.10 – Oak Vintage
      4.45 – Emma Lamb

      Josh

      1. Thanks josh appreciate it
        Yep terrible card!! Another course ticked off, I’m aiming to do them all over time, this is no.25.
        Just like to thank everyone for their contributions on here my knowledge isn’t good enough to get involved on a tipping front so it is all appreciated from my point of view

  2. Nothing from Kempton tonight with one still to run. Back to Kempton tomorrow. Qualifiers below:
    5.45 Glyder 7/1
    7.15 Keltie 7/1
    7.45 Avocet 7/1 & Heron 4/1
    8.15 Captain George 14/1 & Sky Rocket 9/2
    9.15 Fivetwoeight 10/3

    All 1pt win

    A couple have gone up and a couple down since I placed my bets.

    Good Luck

  3. No joy on Monday. Tuesday qualifiers are:

    16.10 Sedgefield – Oak Vintage (41/58 12 months) 13/8

    18.05 Naas – Cacique Royal (41/50 12 months) 6/1

    19.15 Kempton – Chetwynd Abbey (40/46 30 days) 40/1

    19.45 Kempton – Stand Firm (41/50 12 months course) 14/1

    20.45 Kempton – Augenblick (41/76 12 months course) 7/4

    Good luck with all your bets.

  4. Pomme De Terre Ayr Tuesday 15:15 1pt e/w Price available 14/1
    Redarna Ayr Tuesday 15:45 1pt e/w Price available 14/1
    Suggestion Southwell Tuesday 16:35 1pt e/w Price available 9/1
    Unwritten Ayr Tuesday 16:55 1pt e/w Price available 12/1

    1. The answer to your question yesterday James is I don’t keep separate records between flat, jumps and the AW. I would say my 2017-2018 Jumps season was better than my 2017 flat season and my 2018 flat season was better than my 2017-2018 jumps season. I keep expecting to go on a terrible run and at the moment I am favoring the flat over jumps although that would have been the opposite at the back end of the jumps season. I certainly used to think I was better at jumps although now I am not so sure. One thing I can say with 100% confidence is both are miles ahead of my AW knowledge so certainly something I’d like to get better at.

      1. Hi Nick
        Once again a big thank you for putting your bets on the forum,however you find them do not be tempted to change your process whilst it is still working.
        Cheers
        Colin

        1. In fairness Colin because I don’t focus on any single area as a way in I am forever trying to improve things so the way I work is definitely different than it was 12 months ago and certainly 24 months ago. I never want to rest on my laurels as per say. Plenty to always learn in this game.

      1. Redarna, tipped by a triumvirate of Nick Mazur, Gary Priestley and Ian(SP2a) – no wonder it got smashed in from 14/1 to 6/1. Well done Nick!

    2. Once again Nick on the money with Redarna back it when you posted it blind. Look at the race first thing and reback at 12/1 then 8/1 and 6/1 just before the off. I wouldn’t advise people do that, but when I smell value got to lump on. Cheers once again Nick, I have made a lot of money from your tip over the year.

      1. How are Gary Priestley’s tips doing now that he’s switched to a subscription service? I can see that he’s showing a profit for the last few months, but is he still basing his results on early prices that are only available with one or two bookies?

        1. Only been with his service for a short time Neil but I am in profit. Got the first month for £5 and it has now gone up to £10. There are obviously long(ish) losing runs but also big price winners. Nobody will get the prices he puts up all the time but I do get some of them. In fairness he does put up the returns on to SP and BFSP on a monthly basis although the running profit is based on his advised prices. I keep my own profit /loss based on the prices which I can get (usually about 6 pm the day before) and as long as I can cover the subscription fee I will keep going. It’s a rollercoaster ride but as near to a “fun bet” as I get!

  5. Re chi, chi is short for the Archie score that determines whether your system results are based on skill or luck. I believe a score over 5 is good, but that is only from memory.
    Andy-E

    1. I do recall talking about chi on a form a few years ago. 4+ was the number most people seemed to look for, although someone said that 3+ was OK and that your system wasn’t properly a flunk?

      1. I think that Chi over complicates betting, as you do not really need to know how far your sample is moving away from a normal distribution, as if you keep accurate records and a separate bank, you will know how it is going and where it can be improved.

        1. I don’t use chi to check my results.

          I use it all the time when developing my systems and will not accept anything under 95%.

          This doesn’t mean that 19 out of every 20 perform as expected. But I have noticed a significant improvement in performance since I started using chi.

          1. Its use would be to aid your approach to betting as you state. I have given it some thought in the past as to its application but find that my spreadsheet to graph to pinpoint works best for me. Anyway enough related maths chat.

            Good luck.

  6. RT -5
    545 K Glyder 7/1 (sorry Ken!)
    615 K Haadhir 9/1
    645 K Rosamour 7/1
    845 K Happy Escape 17/2
    915 K Acrux 8/1 & Dream Catching 9/1

  7. Ayr 4-20. Saint Equiano from section 1 is a 3.5 pt win bet for me but i’m having a saver on Our Charlie Brown 16-1 1/2 pt ew, disappointing last 2 runs but drawn wide 3 days ago and pulled hard before that. better than that form suggests and every chance of bouncing back, the price has drawn me in and he should outrun his odds.

    1. just adding one more Ayr 2-10.She’zanarab 16-1 B365 1/2 pt ew, like most in the field she has no form whatsoever , drops into a Nursery with Irvine putting Tudhope on for the first time which sparked my interest.

  8. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    A 3.15 – Boundsy on 6th run @ 11
    A 5.55 – Bob Maxwell on 4th run @ 14
    A 5.55 – Eyreborn on 3rd run @ 14
    A 5.55 – Goninodaethat on 4th run @ 20
    K 8.45 – Cosmopolitan Queen on 1st run @ 11
    GL
    I’m a bit behind doing figures but will be up by end of today
    Mike

    1. w/e 30/9 figs
      Daily runners = 34
      Winners = 3 @ bog 3, 14, 16. @ sp 3, 14, 16
      p/l @ bog + 2
      p/l @ sp +2
      There were 7 plcs @ 20, 12, 11, 40, 14, 11, 16. @ sp 14, 12, 10, 40, 14, 8, 16

      Festival runners = 27
      Winners = 0
      p/l @ bog – 27
      p/l @ sp – 27
      There were 1/2 plcs @ bog 40. @ sp 12, 40

      3m+ runners = 1
      Winners = 0
      p/l @ bog and sp -1
      there were no plcs
      To date stats on end of todays post after racing.
      Mike

  9. Is the Brennan micro angle about to come into life. Very much a marmite character but i like marmite. Hes only had 50 rides since start of August with only 6 winners. Its the form of his main stable that has let him down in the summer. The last 69 runners from Fergal O’brien have produced only 3 winners. This will alter as the proper national hunt starts.

    1. O’Brien is right off at present and so just sit tight until he picks up. You cannot really lay him as his horses are going off at decent prices and so as soon as one goes in it can clear your bank out.

  10. Chris M Selections:
    Nothing again from me today, no value to be had in my shortlist. 2 days with no bets but one positive is that the method I use to find value has weeded the winners out of the shortlist and that was proven yesterday again with my shortlist having no winners. Just need to stick to my method and be patient

    Good luck with any bets you do today

  11. COLINS BETS
    Ayr
    3.15 Shortbackandsides BOG 7/2
    4.20 Explain BOG 7/1
    4.55 Daawy BOG 6/4
    Kempton
    7.45 Avocet BOG 15/2

  12. TTS “A” possible :
    16:00 Southwell – Banish

    TTS “B” possibles :
    14:00 Sedgefield – Iolani
    14:55 Southwell – Murray Mount

  13. all recent tips 3/10/17 to 30/9/18

    Daily Tips (members/section 2)
    375 x 1st run, 48 x win @ 12.8% sr, bog + 124.55, roi 33.21 / sp + 3.25, roi 0.87
    343 x 2nd run, 36 x win @ 11% sr, bog – 0.75, roi – 0.22 / sp – 76, roi – 22.16
    216 x 3rd run, 22 x win @ 10.3% sr, bog + 55.85, roi 25.86 / sp + 32.35 roi 14.98
    122 x 4th run, 19 x win @ 15.6% sr, bog + 10.5, roi 8.61 / sp – 21, roi – 17.21
    43 x 5th run, 13 x win @ 30.2% sr, bog + 47.5, roi 110.47 / sp + 28.50, roi 66.28
    26 x 6th run, 5 x win @ 19.2% sr, bog + 34, roi 130.77 / sp + 27.5, roi 105.77
    20 x 7th run, 2 x win @ 10% sr, bog + 10, roi 50.00 / sp + 5.5, roi 27.5
    17 x 8th run, 5 x win @ 29.4% sr, bog + 53, roi 311.76 / sp + 42.75, roi 251.47
    9 x 9th run, 0 x win, – 9
    6 x 10th run, 0 x win – 6

    Festival Tips (members/section 2)
    176 x 1st run, 15 x win @ 8.5% sr, bog +130, roi 73.86 / sp + 60, roi 34.09
    97 x 2nd run, 17 x win @ 17.5% sr, bog + 1.25, roi 1.29 / sp – 14.05, roi – 14.48
    41 x 3rd run, 1 x win @ 2.4% sr, bog – 31.5, roi -76.83 / sp – 32, roi -78.05
    17 x 4th run, 1 win @ 5.8% sr, bog – 4, roi -23.53 / sp – 7, roi – 41.18
    8 x 5th run, 0 x win – 8
    5 x 6th run, 2 x win @ 40% sr, bog + 14, roi 280.00 / sp + 6.5, roi 130.00

    3m+ (chase tips/free posts)
    137 x 1st run, 11 x win @ 8% sr, bog + 39, roi 28.47 / sp – 9, roi -6.57
    80 x 2nd run, 20 x win @ 25% sr, bog + 84.25, roi 105.31 / sp + 61.25, roi 76.56
    47 x 3rd run, 4 x win @ 8.5% sr, bog + 1, roi 2.13 / sp – 9.25, roi -19.68
    30 x 4th run, 4 x win @ 13.3% sr, bog -2.50, roi -8.33 / sp -7.00, roi -23.33
    19 x 5th run, 2 x win @ 10.5% sr, bog + 2.50, roi 13.16 / sp -2.00. roi -10.53
    9 x 6th run, 2 x win @ 22.2% sr, bog +22.00, roi 244.44 / sp +16.50, roi 183.33
    1 x 7th run, 0 x win. -1

    The eagle eyed will notice the jump in 3m figs which are now complete.
    Mike

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.