Members Daily Post: 01/10/18 (complete)

Tips x3 + write up, Section 1 (comp), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT

Catterick

3.35 – Kibaar (micro TJC) w1 H3 13/2 UP

4.10 – Last Chance Paddy (m TJC) 11/1 UP

5.10 – Cupids Arrow (m TJC) 9/1

 

Bath

5.30 -Eben Dubai (m class) 40/1

 

JUMPS

Newton Abbot 

4.00 – Valhalla (m runs) H3 I3 G3 3/1 S4 

4.30 –

Bradford Bridge (hncp h) 30  9/2 2nd

Fields of Glory (m TJC/age) 14 25/1 S2A UP

The Brothers (m class/runs) 14/1 S2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/278,93p, +14.9) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)

 

Daily Tips

4.10 Catt – Last Chance Paddy– 1 point win – 14/1 (SkyB/BetfS/BV) 12/1 (gen) UP 8/1 4th, ran ok, looked like would play a role heading for home. Poor finishing effort, maybe he needs softer

4.30 Newton A – Silver Sea – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) 3rd 8/1 ok run, bit of a shoddy ride i think but that’s racing. Was ahead of eventual winner for most of race and inextricable found himself chasing him as they headed for home, if he does stay this trip well, he didn’t give him much of a chance to demonstrate it on this short run in.

4.40 Catt – Chica Da Silva– 1 point win – 11/1 (bet365/betfS/PP/BV) (10/1, the rest) UP 9/1, led as expected, faded a couple from home, no excuse, not very good.

 

 

Last Chance Paddy… three more ‘risky’ ones today, none of whom have won a race as yet (well, Silver S in Germany) on these shores. At a time of year on the flat when a few have had hard seasons, i’ve gone for a couple who are fresher than most and in the ‘could be anything’ category, and their prices just lured me in. This one is fascinating… it’s the 7th run of his life and his 4th handicap. It’s his second run for Tim Easterby, he drops into an open looking C6, drops in trip by 2f and D Allan jumps on for the first time. This is his second run after a 201 day break and i’d like to think he’d come on for LTO. He ran well to a point there, 3/4th up until 2 from home, where he also lost a shoe which may not have helped, esp on decent ground. In any case he wasn’t fancied there and maybe the market will tell us more here. He’s drawn in 1 and raced prominently last time. It’s not impossible they try and make all but there are a few other pace pushers. In any case he should have no excuses, tactically. His runs at Southwell were ok, in the sense that 13 horses have won since between the two races so there was some substance there, for old connections. And this looks quite the trainer uplift. He’s now 8lb below his opening handicap mark and i’m sure at some point will show himself to be well handicapped. He’s pitched into a weak enough race here. Albert Boy is the solid one and the benchmark…if he runs his race he will be thereabouts, it’s just whether something has more in hand now, and his long season may catch up at some point. Flying Focus is now 0/12 in his career and looks a bit trip-less. GF would be a question also I think. 7/2 is short for one with that profile but he has been consistent, and that can be enough at this basement level. The rest have even more questions to answer. Tudhope is an interesting booking for Debateable who is also in the ‘could be anything’ category and maybe this trip and fast ground will bring about improvement. He probably looks most interesting of the rest.

Silver Sea… a fascinating runner in here and i’m happy to have a dart at 14s in what looks an open race. This former German flat winner ran well here LTO, staying on nicely enough over 17f. He did look outpaced there, with the 1-2 up there for most of the way. The front four were miles clear that day and the second has since come out and won a class 4, so some substance there. He is up in trip and up in class, and I wanted some indication from ‘the numbers’…well he’s top rated on geegeez speed, and prominent on Inform, inc top rated on their ‘course’ metrics. It would suggest that run LTO was decent enough. So, he arrives fit and in form. He runs as if he may relish this trip but of course has it to prove…but if he came here with a recent distance win/place, he wouldn’t be this price. Plenty in here may need the run and it isn’t a deep C4. Marble Moon is interesting, if tuned up again after the break, and that for me makes the price skinny enough I think. But he looked progressive when last seen, but hopefully doesn’t improve on Evans 0/21,1p here in the last year. Ambre Des Marais  is a section 1 qualifier (no she isn’t, clearly need more coffee…her trainer form lured me in to looking..) and was my ‘way in’ to looking at this race. I have had a saver on as he moves back up in trip which should suit and arrives fit and in form, as is her yard. Fehily jumps back on also, and he gets on well with her. She’s generally very consistent but is on a career high mark, and does have 21.5f to prove – stayed 20f around Bangor just fine… she is also 8 though and her rest patterns this year niggled at me a tad, as if she’s had problems/been hard to train. Anyway, 15/2 may end up looking a great price but i’ve gone for one at 14s, tipping wise, who is open to any amount of improvement, and is another who one day will look well in. He travelled and jumped well LTO, and can hopefully step forward again. I was happy to leave the 3 section 1 qualifiers in this, but there has been some money for Tizzard’s which would make me anxious. He’s 0/7,0p in his career and comes here after a break, so fitness to prove. Maybe he’s wanted decent ground all along though…

Chica Da Silva… a similar one to the first really given her unexposed profile. She’s in the ‘could be anything’ camp but I thought worth chancing on her first run on turf in a handicap. That last run was after 40 days or so, and now returns within 23 which may be more optimal. Theo Ladd also jumps on for the first time since her debut and his 5lb may make the difference come the end. Draw in 5, it was the pace angle which lured me in initially…she led LTO and I thought there was a chance she’d do so again. She was a bit keen that day but was in there until 2f or so from home, and then did plug on, rather than fall out the back of the TV. It was an ok run. If she could settle better on the front end she could blast away from this lot, if suddenly appearing thrown in. Again, this one races in a weak/open race to my eyes. Richard Strauss for example is 1/31 in his career, and 0/17 on turf, and is near enough favourite. He, like Clenymistra, are also drawn wide. Anyway, it didn’t look a deep race and may not take too much winning and the selection looked the most interesting by some way. I hope they try to make all and she suddenly appears to have 10lb+ in hand! I can hope.

So, three with more interesting profiles and this day will probably go one of two ways. With any luck at least one of them can win, two would be welcome given my ‘two steps forward, four backwards’ approach to the daily tips this year so far!

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps 

D McCain (14/1<)

5.05 NA- Innicastle Lad

Autumn Trainers

E Lavelle 

5.05 NA – Act of Supremacy

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Strategy Results update, to follow

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Calling all regular contributors in the comments... (you know who you are 🙂 ) … some didn’t like this request last time, but i’m here again…if you post regularly (tips/system bets etc) then a monthly/year to date, update for how you are getting on would be superb, as we enter the start of a new month. Given you all put so much time/effort in, that’s the only way to ensure everyone else can make an informed decision as to who they may follow/read/keep an eye on for the future etc… I mean you’re all doing very well by all accounts 🙂 No rush, but anything this week would be great.

Nick M… I see he posted a monthly update. I can reveal that he’s now on +415.94 points for 2018 to date, to advised stakes (mainly 1 point EW, the odd 1.5 win) and the prices he gets/BOG. He’s somewhat setting the bar on the tipping front, making my +225 points or so across the board look a bit inadequate. Not that i’m competitive, ahem. I’d better start getting up earlier i think! 🙂 A superb effort, mind-blowing really. I’m not sure there are many in the game who could match that.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

29 Responses

  1. Thanks for the kind words over the weekend. We start another week and month. Let’s hope it is as successful as the last. Kempton tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:

    6.15 Khibrah 11/1 BOG (or 12/1 with Lads – not BOG until midnight)
    7.45 Mr Scaramanga 12/1 (14s with PP/BF but not BOG for me)
    9.15 Innoko 7/1

    All 1pt win. I’ll proof to the lower odds shown above.

    On the subject of BOG, I wonder if anyone has done any analysis of taking fixed odds at a higher price as opposed to BOG at a lower price and which is better in the long run? I don’t have BOG with PP/BF/Sky but they often have higher odds than other bookies. Should I take the higher odds or BOG? Would be annoying when you get a drifter but would it even out over the long run?

    Good Luck

    1. Following on from Josh’s request, my results for 2018 are as follows:

      Staked 1,298pts, Profit 119.23pts, ROI 10.43% or £596.14 to £5 stakes.

      This excludes April when I took a break from posting. Looking to get the ROI up a bit.

  2. A better day on Sunday with an AOB four timer with Moore only pipped by a short head by another AOB runner!

    Moving on we have the following on Monday:

    18.15 Kempton – Lufricia (41/76 in 12 months at course) 15/8, plus Laquezza (40/50 last 12 months) 9/4

    19.45 Kempton – Corrosive (41/50 12 months at course) 13/8 plus

    20.15 Kempton – Parting Clouds (50/60 last 30 days) 3/1

    Maybe a Kempton multiple for fun at those prices?

    Best of luck.

    1. There is a Mullins Yankee at Roscommon on Monday.
      3.40 Kaatskill Nap
      4.15 Cadmium
      5.20 Sympa Des Flos
      5.50 Presenting Leah

      It wont pay that much at current prices though.

  3. We end the month +34.28 couple to try and get us back on track for tomorrow:

    Paco Escostar Catterick Monday 15:35 1pt e/w Price available 9/1
    Yamuna River Bath Monday 15:50 1pt e/w Price available 16/1

    1. Fantastic results on the flat this year Nick, many a glass has been raised in my household to your picks these last 6 months.

      I wondered do you have a P&L breakdown of your selections by code i.e Flat, NH & AW?

      Just wondering if you’re methods work better for 1 of the disciplines, and as the Flat is winding down it will help me figure out staking on your NH picks.

      Cheers

  4. Martin W – re. your test on BF odds taken v BSP, I think over the long run, taking the odds would be more profitable than BSP. I would say the majority of winners shorten before the off, so you will lose a number of pts if you take BSP. Certainly when you get a drifter, BSP can be a good bit higher than SP so you will gain some pts on those but the frequency of those winners will be a lot lower. Just my gut feeling. Martin C might be more knowledgeable on this subject?

    1. I have figures from my posts to another forum which are made at 11am every day. I will not disclose the actual profit figures because that would be misusing this forum.

      I’ve posted 1,286 bets in the last year, the ROI for 11am price and bsp are almost exactly the same.

      However, BOG adds nearly 40% to the ROI.

      And the bsp figures are skewed by 5 cases where the winning bsp was more than 10.0 higher than the 11am price.

      I would say that taking a price the night before is definitely going to be better than bsp if you are consistently showing a profit.

      1. BSP can be skewed by the occasional ‘biggie’ and the evening before prices may lead more quickly to bookmaker restrictions. However the ‘evening before restriction’ fear is not as big as it is advertised on some betting sites and so do not fear it too much. Spread your money around bookies if you still have accounts.
        I agree that overall, ignoring potential night before restrictions that taking a BOG price early will beat BSP over a period of 12 months.

  5. thanks for the comments, i have taken the prices on all but one (6-00 am) as all better than bookies, i know the market hasn’t formed properly yet but worth a go . on one the difference is massive.
    Catterick
    3.35 – Kibaar 8.0
    4.10 – Last Chance Paddy 14.4
    5.10 – Cupids Arrow 26.0 (sky 13-2 )
    Bath
    5.30 -Eben Dubai unmatched 110.0
    Newton Abbot
    4.00 – Valhalla 5.0
    4.30 –
    Bradford Bridge 7.26
    Fields of Glory 27.24
    The Brothers 16.29

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  7. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    B 5.30 – Fanatical on 2nd run @ 12
    B 5.30 – Diamond Reflection on 2nd run @ 12
    Festival
    R 5.20 – Ah Littleluck on 6th run @ 11
    GL

    I’ll post some stats at some point today for last week / month
    Mike

  8. COLINS BETS

    Bath
    2.45 Kinglami BOG 6/1
    2.45 Powerful Dream BOG 16/1
    Catterick
    4.10 Flying Focus BOG 7/2
    5.10 Plucky Dip BOG 3/1

    September

    Bookmakers SP + 1.716

    BOG + 15.608

    1. Cheers Colin. Do you have figures for 2018 to date at all 🙂 A great end to last month, well done, i feel a golden period coming up! Best of luck.

  9. Chris M Selections:
    Nothing from me today, no value to be had from my shortlist.

    Results:
    Re-Cap w/c 24/9/18:
    11 bets – 2 winners & 1 N/R
    S/R: 20.00%
    ROI: +52.5%
    P/L: +5.25 pts

    Overall:
    395 bets – 73 winnners and 10 N/R
    S/R: 19.01%
    ROI: +13.65%
    P/L: +52.56 pts

    June: -10.4 pts
    July: +33.68 pts
    August: -0.97 pts
    Sept: P/L+30.25 pts, ROI: 55%, SR: 20% (58 bets, 11 winner, 3 N/R)
    October: 0 pts (ongoing)

    Good end to the month and I final broke the 50pts of profit since I started posting. Few tweaks to the method helped the ROI be as high as it was this month, hopefully that continues. Good luck with any bets today 🙂

  10. Well done to Nick for his figures. He sure has a top notch pin he sticks into the runners and riders to find winners!! Just joking!

    Nothing from me today with the exception of the Mullins Yankee above.

    The London Racing Club have an Arc/Champions Day preview on Wednesday evening at The Holiday Inn Kensington from 7 PM. Non members welcome. Ed Chamberlain and Paul Kealy on the panel.

    1. Good stuff Martin…
      I am taking my first visit to Longchamp this weekend… so do take some notes/share any wisdom if you can! I’m not sure i’ll have much of a clue, i’ll probably just stick to the GB/Irish raiders!
      Josh

      1. I will report back on Thursday from the event with some bullet points. If anyone else is there form the blog let me know and I will buy them a pint at the interval.

        In regard to reporting results for 2018 – Re U.S. Racing Tips +42.5 points; Golf Tips (Free Blog) +87.5 points. I will start posting Racing Tips form today and recording them here each month. I will start today with:
        3.55 Catt Pearl Noir 1 point each way 20/1 BOG – I think that the horse can outrun these odds if finding some form. Also the Mullins four above in a 1 point win Yankee.

        Good luck

  11. COLINS BETS
    All returns since proofing on RTP from September 2017
    Bookmakers SP
    Sep + 34.95
    Oct + 64.63
    Nov – 41.52
    Dec + 10.45 Total Profit + 68.51
    2018 Bookmakers SP
    Jan + 46.44
    Feb + 38.22
    Mar + 37.82
    Apr – 18.98
    May – 34.67 Started including BOG from June
    Jun – 31.56 + 10.35
    Jul + 7. 36 + 37.62
    Aug – 20.06 – 4.78
    Sep + 1.71 + 15.60
    Total
    +25.06 + 58.79

    Since introducing BOG in June you can see the difference it as made in 4 months

    Bookmakers SP – 42.55 points BOG + 58.79

    And people wonder why bookmakers close down accounts

    1. great stuff Colin, much appreciated.
      They’re still bloody good to SP, so that’s +93 points in 12 months since start Sept 17, very good going. Oct-March your best period last year, and by all accounts as per last few days, you could be gearing up for the same again!
      Josh

  12. 5.05 NA : BULLET PROOF : one of the pinpointed up and coming conditional jockeys riding on this one . It’s also a horse that needs holding up which is something this jockey has found a knack of doing very well. In a conditional jockeys race as well he must be one of the best up and coming jockeys in this race and an e/w price ( 14/1) worth an interest for me 🙂

    gl and can only echo the glowing reports from everyone above .. certainly appreciated by me 🙂 keep up the good work 🙂

  13. Hi Josh,

    Regarding your request for information about chi may I suggest you Google, ‘Archie a method of evaluating systems ‘. This should direct you to the roulette forum where you can download the pdf. It’s based on horse racing and will give you some background. I’m not a member of HRB so i don’t know if their evaluation is based on say 5 seasons worth of data ( 4 degrees of freedom) or all 5 seasons clumped together ie 1 degree of freedom. The numbers will differ slightly for testing significance.

    Brian posed the same question the other day so should do the same.

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