Members Daily Post: 28/09/18 (complete)

Tips x2 (+write up) , Section 1 (comp) , test zone , Newmarket (inc Sat Cambs pointers) , Really Super…

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT

Haydock

2.05 –

Flood Defence (all hncps) 5/1

Crimson Skies (all + micro TJC) ES+ H3 I1 G1 9/2 S1 S2 S3A# S4 

4.55 –

Mickey (all hncps + m TJC) ES+ I1 14/1 S3A S6 

Shaiyem (m dist) (hncp debut) 22/1

Storm Ahead (m dist) I122/1 S6 

Markazi (m age) 11/2

 

Newmarket

4.10 –

Velorum (2YO) 30 9/4 

Wings of Time (2YO) 30 14/1 

5.15 – Escape The City (m age) I3 10/1 

 

 

JUMPS

Worcester

3.25 – Rosie McQueen (hncp chase) H3 G3 4/1 

4.00 – Curious Carlos (m runs) w2 14,30 8/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/271,92p, +21.9) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +159)

Daily Tips

5.15 Newm – Escape The City – 1 point win – 11/1 (betfS/PP/UniB) 10/1 (gen) UP

5.35 Worc – Cape Caster– 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP

that’s it for today,08.49 brief write up…

 

Escape The City… there were plenty of reasons to like this Section 1 qualifier which was my ‘way in’ this time. It’s a competitive race but when I looked at her form, and the MO of the trainer, plus the jockey booking, i thought she was worth chancing at 10s+. Her two best runs to date for me have come in big fields on galloping tracks..here in a big 2Yo race over 6f, staying on strongly, and at Royal Ascot this year, in the Sandringham, possibly racing on the wrong part of the track/hitting daylight too soon, but running on at the end into 3rd. In two runs in class 2s she’s yet to be unplaced. It was the trainer’s record here that sealed the deal really… in the last 5 years (+ 2018) with 3YO at the track he’s…. 4/13,8p, +13.. 3/7,6p in handicaps. 3/7,4p in 3yo+ races, 4/7,5p 1m+ and ALL with fillies/mares. What’s more he’s in flying form, four wins from his last 10 runners, and a further place, so 4/10,5p. This one looks drawn on the right side, pace wise. She has save the bees to track and the Les Eyre horse can get on with it also. The stalls are on the far side today but yesterday the rail appeared to be favoured, and hopefully that’s the case on the other side also! But, there may not be much logic to that. SDS has been booked and that’s usually an upgrade and I suspect he may have her more handy here. It could be they were testing out her stamina the last twice where she’s stayed on both times, the latter using plenty of petrol from right out the back and hardly bashed about in the closing stages. There’s every chance this has been the plan, and we could see a different horse here, one that may now have plenty in hand. This stiff 9f could be ideal, and i’ll pay to find out. Clearly it’s a competitive race but this should tell us plenty.

Cape Caster… I thought 12s was a bit generous here. Williams is hitting some form, 2/5,5p the last 14 days and this horse steps back down in class from LTO. He does look a C4 animal with only one place in his seven attempts above this grade over sticks. That run was also after 41 days or so and his first over hurdles for some time. It was also a tactically run race around a track which may not have suited, esp over 16f. He returns 24 days later here and back to the CD where he’s won over fences before. His previous stint over hurdles was in 2016 and there’s a 2nd at Ludlow there that is possibly the best hurdles form on offer in this, off 118. He was beaten by Unison that day who’d go on to win 8 more times and is now in the 140s over jumps. He was closing to the line and had the rest beat – a few subsequent winners in behind also. If he could get back to that level, he’d go very close here and out-run these odds. At times he runs like a horse without a trip, 16f sometimes appearing too short, 20f too far! I’ve a niggle that this may not be run to suit but Wedge should race him up there in that case, and get after him early enough up the straight. In the end the price just lured me in on that front but it is a concern. A strongly run 16f could be his thing. But, he does have some decent form in the book for this level and looked interesting at the prices. Fingers crossed he can repeat that Ludlow run, on only his 4th hurdle start since that day.  He’d win this if he did I think.

right, I need to catch the train. Have a great day!

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Really Super…(4pm Worc) 

This promises to be the most excitement i’ve had track side, and probably the most nervous i’ll have been. IF she runs her race, this is going to tell us plenty about what level she’s capable of, I think. She’s up in class here, out of the weights a tad, and bumps into a raft of 130+ rated animals, many of whom have shown form recently. I live in hope that she may reach those heights one day and I suppose that’s due to bits and pieces of her form in her career to date. The ability is there somewhere. On her 3rd career run she was 1 1/2 L behind God Given (group winner/105 on flat = 140 odd jumps) 2L behind Star Rock (103 flat, group place) Even the horse she finished behind in a Salisbury C5 is now 99. Cubswin, who we chased at Fakenham, is now 121 over sticks. The ability/engine is there, somewhere, and off 111 i’d like to think she will prove herself well handicapped at some point. She wasn’t stopping LTO which gives me some hope but in truth i’d probably bite your hand off for 3rd, finishing not too far behind some 130+ animals. Jack has always thought she’d appreciate a stronger pace to sit behind and in this C3 I think she should get it. They will go a stride quicker than any race of hers to date over jumps, and who knows what positive impact that may have. She took a massive step forward mentally LTO, the first time she’s responded properly to pressure and looked a willing partner. It could be she’s just taken a while to grow up, but is only 4, and she’s some unit of a mare. It could be that this is beyond her, and a bit out of her depth. Both Geegeez/Inform speed ratings would suggest so! Top 5 HRB.  I think she should travel into it well enough, and then we shall see what happens in the final 4f. Novis Adventus won over the same CD LTO, but on slightly better ground officially…but did so in 4m 42 seconds, against our 5m. That’s quite a big difference but maybe there’s some going discrepancy. He’s open to further progress too. On that run he’d be the one to beat I think. The Jam Man is interesting, given he’s short and he won his 2m4.5f Southwell handicap in a slower time, 5m 5.35 seconds. I mean it was the same distance! So, who knows. There are some fascinating horses in this race, and it looks very deep for this time of year/the track. But, plenty of them have questions to answer also. Anyway, i’ll be having a modest EW bet for interest, but that isn’t what matters really, the betting is always an added bonus. It will be a roller-coaster and I just pray that she gets competitive. Realistically you’d expect her to get beat by some of these higher rated geldings, but you just never know. I’m convinced she’s got plenty of ability and that one day, when a true gallop to aim at, we may see something special (in relative terms), either at this trip or maybe 3m. She’ll see a fence one day also. Of course the first priority is that she comes back safe, as it always is. But, if she’s in there pitching at the end, in and around the places, you’ll probably hear me from wherever you are 🙂 And if she’s mid pack/plugging on/stuffed, i’ll be holding up the bar.

NOTE I will be going down to Worcester for the day, back around 9.30 pm…so bear with me in terms of Saturday’s post…I plan to take my lap-top with me I think so I can work on the train, which is probably wise given it’s 3h each way!

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

7.45 N – Muatadel 5/1

8.15 N – Elusive Heights 12/1

8.45 N – Justice Pleasing 15/2

Top of The Class

4.10 Newm – Velorum 9/4 / Wings of Time 14/1

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Jumps

Autumn Trainers

C Longsdon (8/1< best)

2.50 W – Treakle Tart 11/4

3.25 W – Barton Rose 13/2

5.35 W – Way Out West 6/1

E Lavelle

4.00 W- Boreham Bill 5/1

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

Saturday Big Race Pointers

The Cambridgeshire

10/321, 40p

10/10 aged 3-6

  • 7/10 aged 4 or 5

10/10 had 2-6 career wins

10/10 had 1-5 handicap wins

10/10 had 3-8 runs this season

10/10 ran in a ‘non major’ race or G2 LTO (no runners from G1 LTO in sample) (basically Listed/G3 LTO: 0/40,2p)

9/10 running same class or up 1

9/10 had 4-17 handicap runs

Trainers

Tregoning  (2/7,3p) 1x : I Mohammed/H Morrison/M Wigham/J Gosden/B Meehan/R Fahey/M Meade/T Tate

 

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Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting 2018

Trainer Pointers

For the previous 5 years…

John Gosden

All: 54 bets / 15 wins / 24p / 28% sr / +22 SP / +27 BFSP / AE 1.36

  • 9/1 or shorter SP: 15/41,23p, +40 BFSP
  • Non-handicaps (not maidens): 12/25,16p, +36
  • 1m4f+ : 6/14,9p, +11
  • Listed: 8/14,11p, +29
  • 1 runner in race only: 14/38,19p, +40
    • 9/1<: 14/31,19p, +47
  • 1st career start OR Top 4 LTO: 15/43,22p, +38
    • 9/1<: 15/34,21p, +47

 

Charlie Appleby

All: 33 bets / 8 wins / 11p / 24% sr / +4 SP / +8 BFSP / AE 1.48

  • 9/1 or shorter SP: 8/19,11p, +22 BFSP
  • Handicaps: 6/14,7p, +22 (9/1<, 6/11,7p, +25) (9/2<, 5/8,6p, +15)
  • 2 year olds: 5/16, 7p, +15 (9/1<, 5/9,7p, +22) (9/2<, 4/6,5p, +13)
    • Handicap Nursery: 4/5,4p, +23

 

Others of note

  • AOB/non-handicaps (not maidens): 4/21,11p, +49 (inc 25/1-44 BFSP winner)
    • J A Heffernan 2/4,3p, +53 (Donnacha may get the outsiders this time?)
  • A Balding/handicaps: 4/15,8p, +11
  • W Haggas/non-handicaps (not maidens): 4/19,9p, +7
  • M Appleyby/handicaps: 3/13,4p, +32

‘Qualifiers’

Apols, I’ve run out of time to look through these…if any of you can/post a comment, that would be much appreciated! 🙂

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

55 Responses

  1. With Josh shouting for Super at Worcester and me doing the same from London, the whole of the South will know if she is doing well! As Josh says, this will tell us an awful lot because it’s a really good race but she’s only young and she deffo got the hang of it last time…..Come on Super!!

  2. Four winners and a second from the Gordon Elliott & Richard Johnson at Perth multiple bet!!!! A good payout but a whopper with 5 winners………

    No U.S. Racing bet Thursday evening.

    1. Hi Martin. Well done on the 4/5 today. I rarely do multiples. Do you have a good success rate with them? If so, I’d be interested in following them if you’d be kind enough to post them here.

      1. I have had two biggish wins lately with the Gordon Elliott raiders in multiples with Dickie Johnson riding. I do usually post them up but they get lost amongst the other messages on here. This one paid £8,413 for a £5 win Canadian. Obviously we were talking £25K ish if the other had gone in!! I hit a £5 win Yankee previously on him that paid £2.5K. Obviously I have losing bets as well.

  3. Hughie Morrison was bullish about Marmelo, his runner in the Melbourne Cup, after Nearly Caught won earlier. He said the horse had gone into quarantine today, after he had worked ‘all over’ NC at the weekend. He’s a definite runner and ‘is the forgotten horse’ Lord Margadale added. Best price 28/1.
    Won and was second on Group 2s in France earlier in the season, so has the class, maybe.

  4. Rose tinted spirit backers last week might be interested in Hello My Sunshine in the 7.45 at Newcastle tomorrow. It’s the same Trainer/Jockey combination who are 6 from 8 when Gormley is jocked on for the first time (2/2 at Newcastle) price getting hammered already around 8/1 atm

  5. I can understand that you’re in two minds about Really Super – at first glance it’s too big a hike in class, but you need to lift the rating for her to get some bigger prizes and the lovely pedigree gives hope that the improvement has just begun. It’ll be an excellent test tomorrow, to see how well she travels behind the leaders – and what she can produce over the last.
    The Festival dreams start here.
    There’s been no sign of Lemos on the track. Is all well?

    1. Well yep we are hopeful this is just the start of the journey. With any luck she just gets better with age into and through next year. I can dream she’s a 135+ animal. Be great to run her at a Cheltenham meeting. Pretty sure she’ll relish that Hill.

      I think all is well albeit no idea. He has his own pin hooking business and may have been busy at the sales etc for that and with Amy/team. He’s very good on the younger horses at home also. But when you can get SDS/Mosse/Murphy etc you’re going to try and get the best you can.
      He was injured for a time and the away over summer. When Nicola won on Blessed was no reason to jock her off etc.

  6. Hi Josh. From your note on Super “so bare with me…..” Does that mean you’ll be running naked round the winner’s enclosure if she wins? haha. Good luck, I’ll have a few shillings on.

  7. A 25/1 place but nothing else, so -1pt for the day. A few more qualifiers at Newcastle tomorrow:
    5.45 Island Song 9/2
    6.45 Musharrif 10/1 & Secretinthepark 7/1
    7.15 Smugglers Creek 11/1
    7.45 Muatadel 8/1
    8.15 Testa Rossa 10/1 & Christopher Wood 9/1
    8.45 Casey Banter 11/1 & Silk Mill Blue 13/2

    All 1pt win and I will have a small rev f/c on each of the pairs.

    Good luck

  8. Highgarden Newmarket Friday 14:25 1pt e/w Price available 12/1
    Brillare Momento Worcester Friday 16:00 1pt e/w Price available 9/1 (appreciate this could be my last post on here if this one wins tomorrow)
    Escape The City Newmarket Friday 17:15 1pt e/w Price available 11/1
    Instant Attraction Haydock Friday 17:25 1pt e/w Price available 7/1

    1. I thought we were friends! 🙂 she won’t win…prep for Chelt and she’s too slow for this track haha. Needs a hill! Well. If Super doesn’t win I’ll take her proving me wrong!

  9. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    H 2.05 – Fisher Green on 3rd run @ 14
    Nm 5.15 – Mountain Rescue on 2nd run @ 50
    W 3.25 – Rosie McQueen on 4th run @ 9/2
    W 4.00 – Django Django on 1st and 2nd run @ 20
    Nc 7.45 – Wediddodontwe on 1st run @ 25
    Dp 2.30 – Every Chance on 2nd run @ 16
    Dp 3.05 – Thisonesforrollie on 1st run @ 3
    Festival
    H 3.50 – Concierge on 2nd run @ 6
    Nm 5.15 – Keyser Soze on 2nd run @ 14
    Nm 5.15 – Mountain rescue on 3rd run @ 50
    W 4.00 – Mister Universum on 2nd run @ 9
    Nc 6.45 – Silver Starlight on 4th run @ 12
    GL
    Mike

  10. Chris M Selections:
    Newmarket:
    17:15 – Capton (12/1 gen)
    17:15 – C Note (40/1 gen)
    17:15 – Mountain Rescue (50/1)

    Few big pokes there. Been a quiet week for me, not a lot of value to be had in my shortlist’s. Guarantees the month ends in profit though 🙂

      1. Protecting the profits but not intentionally. Would rather a few bets each day to have the opportunity to increase the profit. However my shortlist were full of losers this week, so maybe that’s the silver lining. Today and tomorrow to add some to the pot before the months end, lady luck be with us haha

  11. sods law strikes again, i know it’s after timing but was going to put this up early doors:
    28-Sep-18 14:35:58 14:30 Downpatrick
    Authorative – Win
    Betfair Bet ID 1:139059045147 | Placed: 28-Sep-18 13:46:09 Back 70.00 Won
    at least that’s made up for low prices i’ve got on some others recently

  12. Oh my word. Really Super. How easy was that. Youve really got one there Josh. Congratulations to all involved. And a nice place for Nick. Best of both worlds.

    1. I echo Ken’s comments above. Fantastic result for you Josh and all involved. Big drift in price as well, got on at 20/1 this morning so my betting is covered for today

  13. A great result for Really Super. I’m delighted for you Josh.
    I had a bit of a nibble myself at 11’s as I felt that reading between the lines of your write up , I thought you were quietly confident and perhaps not wishing to put the hex on her . Onwards and upwards !

    1. Ha. You may be fairly close to the mark there! It may have been more than a sporting EW bet helped by my paddock view. She looked stunning and some of 130s animals def needed run etc. She looked the best shed ever done and much better than the rest. I was confident she had that in her prob most confident in our camp. On we go. She’s got the hang of life and racing now. Proper dreamland territory.

  14. WELL DONE !! REALLY SUPER effort from really super and co ….. well chuffed for you josh !! see you in the guiness tent in march 🙂

    just super !
    gl
    bc

  15. 16:55 Haydock Park Fondest
    16:55 Haydock Park King’s Pavilion
    17:15 Newmarket Jus Pires
    17:25 Haydock Park Dark Ruler
    17:35 Worcester Cape Caster
    17:35 Worcester Shanroe Tic Tec
    19:45 Newcastle Hello My Sunshine
    20:15 Newcastle Equiano Springs
    20:30 Dundalk Schoolboy Error

  16. Storm Ahead a frustrating 2nd in a photo for S6 at 28/1. Can imagine it was much more on BFSP the way it was drifting.

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