Members Daily Post: 27/09/18 (complete)

Tips x2, Section 1 (x2) ,test zone , Newmarket pointers + ‘qualifiers’

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT

Newmarket (Rowley)

1.50 – Star Safari (2YO) 30 20/1 

 

Pontefract

3.50 – Gin In The Inn (micro class/class move) 18/1  WON 25/1 

4.25 – 

Mukhayyam (3yo+, + m TJC/dist/class move) ES+I1 10/1 S3A S6

Dance King (3yo+, + dist/class move) ES+ I3 12/1 S3A 

5.35 – 

Round The Island (all hncps) H3 13/2 

Feebs (3yo+) I3 G3 25/1 

Suitcase N Taxi (3yo+, + m TJC/age) ES+ 25/1 S3A

Computable (3yo+, + m age) ES+I3 9/1 S3A 

 

JUMPS

Perth

3.25 – Tangolan (all hncps/hncp chase + m TJC) 8/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/271,92p, +21.9) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +159)

 

Daily Tips

3.25 Perth – Tangolan – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP, poor.

3.50 Ponte – Aleef – 1 point win – 15/2 (gen) UP, even worse. Blew start and was then lit up, but prob clutching at straws. Just rubbish. Nowhere near the winner in truth. I suppose the drop in class/mark/his CD record was enough. Draw a niggle for one who rarely makes all so fear he would be stuck wide but wonderful ride from PH, blitzed the start. Big price, 65.00 on the machine. Urgh.

that’s all for today, 09.00, write ups…

 

Tangolan… i’m taking a bit of a chance here…maybe i’m just scarred from tipping Rolling Maul three starts back only to see him bolt up twice, both at 6s, without a sodding penny on! So, i’ve gone with another 10 YO here who clearly isn’t in the form of that one. But, I think there are reasons why he could outrun these odds. He last ran in a C4 handicap chase over CD last July when bolting up from an ok field off 117. He followed that up with a close win in a C3 off 126 back over CD 10 days later. IF he could get back to that form, then off 115 you’d like to think he’d be competitive. He went pointing for a few months before they brought him back under rules and he hasn’t done much as yet this year. But, I do think he’s a C4 chaser and this is his level. He ran ok here 3 starts back in a race that may have been too hot for him but that was his last chase off 125. The handicapper has dropped him 10lb for that and now he races in what looks a weak C4 to my eyes. Last time he ran back here over 20f but over hurdles…he just doesn’t have the pace for that trip over timber with his best hurdles form over 24f. He usually races prominently and I expect Paddy to be aggressive on him and try to lead/take it up at some point. FOB does very well in general at Perth and if he’s going to bounce back to winning form under rules, it will be in these conditions. My decision was part informed by the opposition, which of course will be irrelevant if he is just out of form/doesn’t run his race. Return Flight finished ahead of him in that chase three runs ago but that was in first time CP and he couldn’t back that up next time, and has had 57 days off. He is the other pace pusher but I was happy to leave him. Soupy Soups is a worthy fav given he won LTO but he is 0/5,0p going RH over fences. It could be it’s now all clicked for him but he needs to step forward again. If he does handle going this way, he’s the one to beat but with the RH niggle is worth taking on. I just can’t have the rest at the odds. There are some lightly raced chasers but as yet haven’t done anything over fences. Some of them may need the run and I didn’t think anything else looked over-priced as such. Fiddlers Bow is interesting and may come on from his last run, and give his trainer her first chase winner, certainly in the last 5 years. But again 9/2 wasn’t overpriced to my eye. But he is consistent at least, and should be fit. Anyway, I thought if Tangolan could rediscover some old magic, he would have the beating of these and I wanted to pay to find out at 8s.

Aleef… he’s the only out and out front runner in this race which lured me in to taking a closer look. His draw in 8 should be ok especially as there are a few on his inside that are usually held up, albeit as they are drawn low around here, maybe some will change tactics. He’s also one of not very many who arrive here in form. If he repeats that Thirsk run he wins this in my view. That is an IF with him and softer ground may have been ideal but he’s enough decent runs on Good/GS for me not to use that as an excuse, at the prices. He ran on the wrong part of the track there for the first 4f or so and did best of those that races up the middle, with two from the nearside coming through. The right horses beat him that day and his last win before that, a few runs ago at Hamilton, turned out to be a very hot race for the grade. He’s gone up 2lb from that last run but I don’t think that will stop him if he’s on his a game. He’s top rated on geegeez and inform, which is no bad thing for a sprint handicap and one who likes to lead, and also Danny Tudhope rides him for the first time this season. He’s usually a jockey upgrade on whatever horse he jumps on. What with the pace angle and that decent run LTO, I thought he was worth a go. Hopefully he can dictate and keep going at the end.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

3.50 P – Glen Moss 12/1

4.25 P – Mulligatawny 6/1

5.35 P – Dapper Man 16/1

Top of the Class

2.05 P – Camber 7/2

2.40 P – Zip 17/2

3.15 P – Illusions 15/2 /Mrs Hoo 4/1

1.50 N – Magic Illusion 3/1 / Star Safari 20/1

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Jumps

Paddy Brennan (14/1)

3.25 P – Tangolan 8/1

Autumn Trainers

NTD (22/1<) 

2.15 P – Bishopswood Flyer 10/1

3.25 P – Kerisper 17/2

4.00 P – Kapgarry 10/3

5.10 P – Belmount 5/2

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R Hobson

4.35 P – Petiville 10/1

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

3.25 Perth – Soupy Soups

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting 2018

Trainer Pointers

For the previous 5 years…

John Gosden

All: 54 bets / 15 wins / 24p / 28% sr / +22 SP / +27 BFSP / AE 1.36

  • 9/1 or shorter SP: 15/41,23p, +40 BFSP
  • Non-handicaps (not maidens): 12/25,16p, +36
  • 1m4f+ : 6/14,9p, +11
  • Listed: 8/14,11p, +29
  • 1 runner in race only: 14/38,19p, +40
    • 9/1<: 14/31,19p, +47
  • 1st career start OR Top 4 LTO: 15/43,22p, +38
    • 9/1<: 15/34,21p, +47

 

Charlie Appleby

All: 33 bets / 8 wins / 11p / 24% sr / +4 SP / +8 BFSP / AE 1.48

  • 9/1 or shorter SP: 8/19,11p, +22 BFSP
  • Handicaps: 6/14,7p, +22 (9/1<, 6/11,7p, +25) (9/2<, 5/8,6p, +15)
  • 2 year olds: 5/16, 7p, +15 (9/1<, 5/9,7p, +22) (9/2<, 4/6,5p, +13)
    • Handicap Nursery: 4/5,4p, +23

 

Others of note

  • AOB/non-handicaps (not maidens): 4/21,11p, +49 (inc 25/1-44 BFSP winner)
    • J A Heffernan 2/4,3p, +53 (Donnacha may get the outsiders this time?)
  • A Balding/handicaps: 4/15,8p, +11
  • W Haggas/non-handicaps (not maidens): 4/19,9p, +7
  • M Appleyby/handicaps: 3/13,4p, +32

 

‘Qualifiers’ 

those horses that hit any stat above etc… (starting points!)

1.50 – Humantiarian/Kick On / Travel On / Magic Illusion

2.25 – Daafr / Indomitable

3.00 – Dixieland Diva

3.35 – Cardini

4.10 – Ben Vrackie / Saracen Knight

4.45 – King Lud

5.55 – Exeat

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

36 Responses

  1. U.S. racing Tip – Wednesday evening. Finger Lakes race 7, 8.52 UK time, Rancho Santa Fe, 7/1 BOG, 1 point each way.

    Good luck.

    1. Hi Martin. Just a minor point but I think worth noting. You state 7/1 BOG but as far as I know B365 are the only bookie to offer BOG on US racing and the highest price they’ve had since opening is 5/1. PP were as high as 8/1 and currently 7/1 but I don’t think (stand to be corrected) they offer BOG.

      1. The selection was a loser. Ran a poor race and we will likely now be giving Finger Lakes a miss and concentrate on Thistledown from now. We may also dabble at another track.More details to follow.

        When I went on to Oddschecker the BOG box was ticked but that is as far as I went. I have to bet on the exchanges.

        1. I agree it’s a bit misleading but if you hover your mouse over the BOG button, it gives you the specific terms for BOG for each bookie. Makes no difference if it loses though lol.

      1. I cannot make this Friday and cannot do Saturdays. The take away food they do for a fiver is OK now (I mean that it is edible). Beer prices have gone up there!

        Good luck.

  2. Hi josh
    As you know I am out of my depth compared to some of the knowledge on here but the content is top drawer & thanks the everyone for their contributions
    On the back of that it is 12 months since my trip to the pardubicka.
    It’s haydock on Friday & a trip to Sedgefield next Tuesday
    Any chance of a through the card for both any other tips gratefully received. Many thanks
    Harry

    1. Hi Harry,

      12 months?? Blimey. Time does fly!
      Haydock may be tricky as i’m off to Worcester for the day to watch Super, so will be pushed for time outside of the usual content. But i’ll see. Sedgefield thoughts shouldn’t be a problem.
      Do post a reminder up on Tuesday’s post if you can, which will go up around 6pm on Monday.

      Josh

      1. Yep, 12 months, scary!!
        Yes I understand, knew you were going to Worcester, if you can you can, no problem.
        Don’t like using the G..D L..K words, so hope all goes well, same as last time would be nice. You’ll have to stand in the same place etc……same lucky pants!!
        Harry

  3. Much need day after the past week or so from me. Would be nice to kick on from there.

    Rebel Surge Newmarket Thursday 15:00 1pt e/w Price available 16/1
    Dream Today Newmarket Thursday 17:20 1pt e/w Price available 10/1

    1. I know the advice is to refrain from excessive emotion but sometimes you need a release. BOOOOOM!! Thanks nick. You’re doing a great job.

    2. Hate to badmouth jockeys but that was basic from Quealy, absolutely no need to come off the rail there with RS. Mistakes like that are the reason he’s getting taken off the big rides

      1. Hmm, I think that’s harsh… I think the horse took herself off the rail?…he had his whip in the correct hand, right side. I’m not sure what he could do, as to keep her on rail/left hand down, would have affected ability to ride/keep her moving forward. That’s how I saw it anyway, I could be wrong. If sticks to rail then probably wins as eventual winner would have had nowhere to go.

        1. To be honest i only saw it a couple of times and didnt check how often he used the whip but he didnt be seeming to try and stop it drifting from off the rails, maybe its my pocket talking 🙂

          1. Yeah, the winner gets the gap anyway i think. Annoyed me at the time too! Always a question mark against Queally as is one of those jockeys that is forever against me

      2. I think that the winner had something extra to give anyway as it won cosily, but a nice place at 16/1, so a good effort from Nick. Queally works hard these days, a long way from Frankel time.

  4. A couple of decent runs but no winners today. -3pts.

    Kempton tomorrow. Qualifiers below:
    7.15 Fares Poet 25/1 (EW)
    7.45 Lady Madison 3/1 & Converter 5/1
    8.15 Volcanic Sky 7/2

    1pt win except where noted EW

    Good Luck.

  5. Josh, Soupy Soups 325 qualifies as a ‘starting points’ chaser with his recent victory and meets the other criteria too. Could you check,please?

  6. Sorry to be a bother again, Josh, but James P’s comment that he thought Inform was better than Geegeez on the Flat triggered something in my mind.

    Did you once start a strategy similar to jumps s1 but on the flat using I1 or I3? Or is my memory confusing it with something else?

    1. Hi Chris,

      Do you mean the strategies? There’s plenty there where inform play a part, as per all the various links in the key! Unless i’ve misunderstood. Flat S6 is based on top rated, geegeez/HRB/inform.
      All of those were researched/developed when trawling through/reviewing when i kept detailed results on all the permutations etc in year1 1.5. In general any stats qualifier with a ratings pointer, esp a top rated, is worth closer inspection given it’s then got some weight in terms of the horse’s ability etc. It may be there’s an undiscovered gem within the current approach and I should probably pay someone to record all the qualifiers/ratings pointers etc again in detail so I can do further analysis, or spend many hours going back through them all for the year and seeing if I can find anything new, but so far, some of the various strategies are doing well as per all the results above etc.
      Josh

  7. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    Po 3.50 – King Robert on 5th run @ 9
    Po 5.35 – Show Palace on 2nd run @ 10
    Pe 5.10 – Boric on 6th run @ 10/3
    Pe 5.45 – Rorys Valentine on 1st run @ 11
    Festival
    Po 3.50 – King Robert on 6th run @ 9
    S 1.55 – Bargy Lady on 1st run @ 5/4
    3m+
    Pe 5.10 – Boric on 7th run @ 10/3
    GL
    Mike

  8. 17.35 Pontefract. Wrenthorpe 14-1 b365, less exposed than many others in this has placed 6/7 winning once at Redcar over today’s distance, smart 7lb claimer on board looks good value at the price. 1/2 pt ew.

  9. COLINS BETS
    Thanks for all your messages and kind words.

    Pontefract
    3.50 Highland Acclaim BOG 8/1
    6.05 Trouble And Strife BOG 6/4 Mentioned a few days ago about Prescott and his late developing 3yo’s,the pattern is continuing this year,hopefully the Stoute runner will maintain a decent price for us.

  10. Morning folks,

    Massive stats buster today in the shape of …….

    PONTEFRACT 4.25 CELESTIAL FORCE 28s in places

    good luck

  11. Gordon Elliott and Richard Johnson at Perth again today with multiple runners, some at decent odds. A couple of winners yesterday and so in some form.

    Good luck.

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