Members Daily Post: 26/09/18 (complete)

Tips x2, Section 1 (comp) , test zone , reflections, free report

 

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT

Goodwood

2.00 – Earl of Harrow (2YO) 40/1 

4.10 – Pretty Jewel (micro age) 14,30 H3 I1 6/1 S2 S6 

 

Redcar

5.30 – Stonific (m TJC) 14/1 

6.00 – 

Ingleby Molly (m TJC/age) H3 13/2 

Space War (m TJC) ES+H3 8/1 S3A 

 

JUMPS

Perth

3.15 – King Muro (all hncps/hncp c + m TJC) H3 I3 G3 10/3 S4 

3.45 – 

Jaunty Thor (m runs) H1 I1 G3 8/13 S4 

Instinctive (m runs) I3 28/1 S5

4.20 – 

Lough Derg Jewel (hncp chase) I3 14/1 S2 S5 

Kilbree Kid (hncp chase) H3 7/1 

Rightdownthemiddle (m runs) w2 G3 11/1 S1 S2 

4.50 – 

Ahead of The Curve (m TJC) 28/1 

William of Orange (m runs) w2 I1 22/1 S2A S5 

Ibsen (m runs) 10/1 S2 

5.20 – 

Green Zone (hncp h) H3 G1 6/1 S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

Miro (m runs) I3 G3 13/2 S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

 

*do note that ANY Jumps qualifier with a G1/G3 that is under 10/1 on morning odds becomes an S1 qualifier IF 11.00+ BFSP. Likewise with I1/I3 (S5). I add a note next to those that are 6s+ generally, but of course the likes of King Muro could drift out. Very rare for that to happen but last season there was a winner at Leicester that was 3s on morning odds, drifted to 14s I think and became an S1, and won. 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/267,90p, +25.9) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +159)

 

Daily Tips

4.40 Good – Secret Return – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) 3rd 

5.00 Red – Casterbridge – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) (11s BetBright) 2nd  , damn, exciting run and there to win, sadly bumped into Nick’s who relished the blinkers/rail/racing alone, but I shouldn’t complain too much. Anyone on the 50/1 FC?? 

 

Secret Return… i thought this unexposed mare was the most interesting in here and could be a couple of points too big. She’s been nothing but consistent in her races, will appreciate this return to slower ground and I think the extra furlong will suit. Well, if you stay on strongly over 8f at Ascot, 9f around here shouldn’t be a problem. I like the fact Spencer keeps the ride here, he may well be determined to make up for last time out… there’s every chance she needed that after 75 days off, no doubt kept away from fast ground, and she was fresh/keen. She’s often enthusiastic but hopefully that run took some of the edge off. She still ran well enough and given P George hasn’t trained a winner after 60+ days yet (albeit only 4 goes) hopefully she comes on for it. There isn’t much pace in this and she usually races up there. It’s not impossible we get a Spencer special from the front, albeit he may try and get some cover. Given the lack of pace I think the draw should be ok and there shouldn’t be an excuse for getting a decent position here although he’ll be careful not to do a Kupa River and light her up by trying to get the lead/prominent. The Ascot run 4 starts ago was decent. Beaten by a horse who has since gone very close in two class 2s, the front three miles clear. She was staying on again at the end there. She then won at Leicester under hands and heels, another stiff 8f before possibly finding Windsor too fast next time, or the trip not far enough around there. She still ran with credit. Plenty in here are long in the tooth and/or not proven at C4 level. I like the fact she comes here fresh enough after that break and could have a decent end to the season. PGs horses have been going well enough. If she settles, I thought she could be the one to beat here. There’s been money for Master Carpenter but he’s getting on, is on a losing run, and seemed short enough to my eyes.

Casterbridge… this one has a couple of questions here (ground/fitness!) but the positives were just too great for me, at a double figure price.  Firstly, the trainer is in form, that was my ‘way in’, 2/6,3p the last 14 days. Pace was also intriguing as I think he’s the only out and out front runner in the field, and has the perfect jockey on board for those tactics. The horse… well these are his conditions. He’s a 5f, class 5 animal… 5/11,6p in those conditions which covers all of his handicap wins. He will win a C5 5f handicap again soon enough. The horse has yet to win from after a break but did go very close at Southwell once, not beaten far at all. And, the trainer does just fine… in 5f handicaps with those returning 60+ days off he’s 6/18,7p…. 5/15,7p when Jason Hart has been booked, and 2/8 at Redcar. Maid In India returned in May after 220 days to win, as an example of the fact the trainer can ready them, if he so pleases. So, I was happy to take the chance given those stats, the horses profile, and the pace set up. Ideally he’d want softer but he hasn’t run many times on good over 5f, in a class 5, and has the odd decent run where I think class beat him more than anything. He’s clearly been kept back for an Autumn campaign and is one to keep an eye on in the coming weeks. If he’s A1 here, I think he’ll take the beating and will get away with the going. The Favourite, Gamesome, is 0/36 in handicaps, 0/26 over 5f. He has run well the last twice but they may not go hard enough for him here. In any case, with stats like that you have to take him on at 7/2! Tudhope may work his magic though. Angel Force is of some interest but is only 1/21 and all hope appears to rest on the blinkers. He drops in class and has the ability to win this well I think, if they work. 8s didn’t seem overly generous to my eyes in that context but we shall see. He did come 2nd here in May off 77, over 5f in a C5, in first time CP. The rest appear to have plenty of questions. I tipped Lexington Place LTO for my sins, expecting it to be set up for him, but the leaders didn’t come back. He’s had a long season and is 0/14,1p all runs September- end Dec. He’s also now 0/25,2p in fields of 12 or more and it could be he’s a funny one that doesn’t like being surrounded by horses on all sides. He has the ability to take this and given my LTO losing tips do ok on their next start, he may get some change on the machine just in case, with preference for mine, and then Nicks! 🙂

That’s the lot for today.

I’m awaiting a de-brief from Blessed’s run… I believe she didn’t play ball and had an off day.. she was very late into the pre-parade ring, having been reluctant to be fitted with the saddle etc. She was better than that run and maybe it was one run too many in 4 or so weeks. That’s the game. Hopefully we can get one more win out of her before the year is out.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.15 P – King Muro 7/2

Autumn Trainers

NTD (22/1<) 

4.20 P – Double Ross 4/1

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

3.15 P – Ontopofthworld Evens

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Free Report... if you missed it, Matt at Geegeez is giving away TTS 2018/19 for free, worth the read. I need to find 45 spaces in my HRB accounts!  Yes yes it’s part of a bigger launch for Geegeez Gold etc, but it’s worth the read and the launch process is worth following as plenty of freebies along the way, and as always you can unsubscribe, albeit his email list would be one of the top five i’d be on…

You can grab your copy HERE>>>

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Tuesday: looking back

Where to start…

The Strategies...well there are three ‘big odds’ strategies in the Flat +Jumps section 1 portfolio.. Flat S6 , Jumps S1 and S2A… the latter two had 25/1 (40.00 BFSP) and 12/1 (13.8 BFSP) winners on Tuesday.

As of 17th September those three combined were on +211.5 points to 1 point win bets BFSP. Today took them up to +264 points or so, minus/add whatever happened between 18th and 24th! They’ll be updated in due course. Please please read ‘The Strategies: where should you start’ link in the Key above if you haven’t already. They are big odds/low win % and there are various ways you can attack them, esp EW for S2A which is more consistent (fewer losers/shorter losing runs between drinks). They should be attacked with small stakes to start, building up. Even to just £2 win bets that’s a healthy +£528 for the year to date, which is a nice number and after subs etc leaves some left over for some of the finer things in life. That’s where I started with those and i’m now on £10 per point generally which is the level i’m comfortable at with those but come start of 2019 I may re-evaluate. They have and will have some long losing runs combined. S2A has hit -60-80 on the win side, and the others have had some -40+ runs I think. That’s the nature of the approach where the P/L, ROI is more important than winners. But that’s why you should start small etc. Of course that approach may not suit you at all which is fair enough. Many of you won’t back any, some maybe one or two, or all three. And we will all miss the odd winner sadly, life does get in the way at times. But they are very much ‘back them or don’t’ – they throw up winners that make little sense to my subjective eyes at times, but that’s the point! They are logically sound and in live play are proving themselves. I’d take +200 a year, every year, from those three combined, no doubt about that.

Dreamsoftheatre hit jumps S1, on the angle which covers any drifters. He wasn’t 10/1 or bigger on morning odds so didn’t qualify at that time, but did if his BFSP was 11.00 or bigger. You can set that minimum BFSP at any time that suits you, and Video 2 in the Welcome Info link in the Key explains how to do that.

Anyway, hopefully some of you backed one or both of those. A good sign for the jumps season ahead, hopefully.

Tom Lacey… a mad day, where his 8/1 test zone angle returned 40.00 BFSP. I didn’t back him at that price sadly but it appears one of you did!

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Through the Card…well that found two winners so no complaints there… considering there were those two monster winners in the content, it’s annoying I didn’t highlight those! I hope Peter may have backed them… ?? That may well have been the most fun he’s had track side if he did!

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Tipping... well a poor day. If you don’t look back/reflect, it’s hard to stand still in this game, let alone progress.

Kupa River…I can live with that one…something wasn’t right there. He can be keen and maybe rushing him up to grab a position set off something in him which meant he went backwards pretty quick. It appears the stewards didn’t ask his jockey for an explanation which given how many other horses in the race they enquired after, seems odd…especially how he ran. TH didn’t make any effort on him once the others pulled level turning for home and appeared to just let him drift back in his own time. He clearly has ability for this level I think and just hope they find the key. One to keep an eye on. The way he stopped suggested he may have bled or swallowed his tongue or something. Who knows.

Lofgren… the most annoying effort of the day and an early/timely reminder that we are hitting proper jumping season. He just has not gone the pace there at all (‘winter pace’ ?) and was taken out of his comfort zone and could never get prominent. They went very fast there for a 3m+ chase and he’s not enjoyed it. Maybe just a ‘summer horse’ The winner…well yet again a stats qualifier in section 1 beats me in a race i’ve tipped in. I really need to pay more attention to any Section 1 quals in a 3m+ handicap chase i’m looking at. He had so many trainer /trainer-jockey stats pointers he was worth closer inspection at 12s+. It was only his second chase and a drop in class. He clearly wasn’t right when last seen. It did take a leap of faith and I wasn’t a million miles away. I think I can live with that one, it’s more the assessment of my selection that irks me. I didn’t think for one moment he’d struggle to lay up, which I should have pondered.

The Hendo/De Boinville stats that I did muse over pre race… trainer 7/15,9p at the track in the last year, 6/12,9p with all runners in the last 30 days (in form, just slightly!!) , jockey 5/18,7p at the track in the last year, trainer/jockey 10/24,15p here in last 5 years. What with the fact he was a section 1 qualifier also, I should have pondered deeper at 12s+. Easy to say after of course, but those Geegeez report angles snippets within the race-cards are a gold mine. More focus on those.

The 5.10…again my selection was just out-classed I think but she ran ok…what is annoying is that I read the top of the market correctly and they were all worth taking on. Arguably the other fit and in form horse won, at 14s… I wasn’t that close to the Mulholland horse which on reflection was silly. While she was lucky LTO she was going to come 3rd, with the front 3 miles clear. That was her first run over 19f on good ground, this her second run, over hurdles. She was open to progress in these conditions and the same reasoning behind the selection was applicable to her. She showed up well on the ratings sets also, to give some context to that recent run. With both those winners I mentioned them in the write ups and with some clearer thinking may have landed on one or both, but then again I think I should be finding the winner of every race I tip in.

Finally, it was a reminder how hard it can be to come from off the pace over jumps in general, let alone on good/firm ground.

Always something to ponder, at least those strategies had a good day, and not many like that come along in one hit. Onto tomorrow.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

60 Responses

  1. Hi Josh
    Just got back to Manchester thanks once again for the thru the card suggestions had a brilliant time backed the two first and last race also backed the Tom Lacy horse at 20/1had rule 4 deduction but still good.
    I have no idea how i missed the Jonjo 25/1 shot but with all 3 of Colin’s winning helped as none of the tips obliged today which would have put me in profit for the day but that’s how it goes sometimes but still a great day
    Peter

  2. A 7/1 winner in the first race at Lingfield today but nothing else. Breakeven on the day.

    Wolves tomorrow. Only three qualifiers.
    5.45 Bring Us Paradise 14/1
    6.15 Aussie Nugget 9/2
    8.45 Climb Aboard 9/2

    All 1pt win.

    Good Luck

  3. Dreamsoftheatre ends (presumably) a very successful season for Ben Aitken’s Summer Stunners. I am not organised enough to be able to give precise profits but certainly well in front. Can’t believe it returned 25/1 – best price 8/1 with 365 at 6 pm yesterday, – thank heavens for BOG!!

    1. I’ve just spoken to him… he said that all horses in the guide, when running in national hunt, the top level figures so ignoring when ‘ideal’ conditions… 10/33, 19p, +57.6 BFSP level stakes. Obvs helped by Dreams yesterday at 40.00, but even if he’d have lost that’s a 50% ROI or so. Decent.

  4. Josh,
    Hopefully you’ll not need 45 more tracker entries. We’re aiming to have a daily report for TTS similar to our other reports already on site. Next week with a bit of luck.

    Chris

        1. Well that was my next step to ask Matt, depends if you all mind. I’d be delighted if so,from the team of 45, only average 2 a day isn’t it and I like that focused list. Some decent angles in there, and will be good addition, esp any cross reference… could work on an S1 / S2A front also haha.

  5. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    R 5.00 – Lexington Place on 1st run @ 14
    R 6.00 – Destination Aim on 1st run @ 16
    R 6.00 – Spirit of Zebedee on 2nd run @ 12
    P 5.20 – Equus Pandora on 1st run @ 15/2
    GL
    Mike

  6. Hi Josh, in time for the last quarter of the year (1st October), any chance of updating the strategy results please? and also I recall you doing a piece on a suggested jumps and flat portfolios sometime, can you recall what date it was please?

    Thanks
    Paul

    1. Hi Paul,

      Sometimes I read comments and hit my head against the wall haha.

      By portfolio do you mean a collection of the strategies to follow, as a starting point?

      I lose count of how many times i’ve banged the ‘please read ‘The strategies: where should you start’ link in the key, mentioned again in my section 4 musings above today, and numerous times in recent weeks, esp when doing weekly results round ups.

      You may mean something else though! But if not, that doc is here… http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Advised-strategies-2018.-where-to-begin-no.4-17.09.18.pdf

      Updated to end of Sept 16th.

      I’ll get everything updated for Tuesday next week, and spend my Monday pulling that doc up to speed, as well as the separate strategy doc links in the key, of which they were last updated 15th July.

      Sorry if that’s a bit blunt in places! The one thing that gives me cold sweats is members not understanding the approach / or which strategies they may wish to start on. (in time) As if that isn’t clear, then that’s no good, but i can’t do any more than I am on that front, so it concerns me when such things pass members by, as clearly I need to be doing more!

      Hopefully that’s what you’re referring too.

      As i’ve mentioned plenty of times, as above in Section 4 again today, on the Jumps side i’d be looking at S1 and S2A as the big odds approaches, the latter there are EW options as per the results in that link.

      Jumps w1 / w2 is also looking very good as is S3A#.

      If i’ve misunderstood or still haven’t answered your question, do shout! It’s probably my fault, I mean don’t members spend all their time pouring through the key/my section 4 ramblings??!!! 🙂

      best, Josh

  7. COLINS BETS
    Goodwood
    3.05 Lady Dancelot BOG 9/2
    4.40 Master Carpenter BOG 3/1
    Redcar
    5.00 Twentysvnthlancers BOG 25/1
    6.00 Something Exiting BOG 9/2
    Perth
    5.20 Green Zone BOG 6/1
    Wolverhampton
    7.15 La Fortuna BOG 11/4
    7.45 Monumental Man BOG 7/2

    1. Cracking day for you Colin. I had a bet on Lady Dancealot as both you and Nick tipped it but nothing else, more fool me. Looks like your fortunes are turning.

      1. Wow Colin! 5/7 well done. I decided to give MM a go in the last thinking I’d probably missed my opportunity but not a bit of it. You have to enjoy days like these. They don’t come around too often. Cheers.

    2. Cracking effort mate! I wasn’t on the last winner as avoid anything below 3/1 but 3 winners from the first 5 brings a nice boost for the day with one more to come.

  8. Morning all,

    DALGLEISH runs two in the 2.10 Perth. I think there is a sleeper in there somewhere in the shape of UNCLE VANNY @ 50s. Looks the second string going on jockey bookings. Sire stats say otherwise to me with the rest of the field not offering a great deal to back them up. Jockey rides well for the stable in hurdle races with 30r 5w 11p for + 33 in the last 2 years on what looks to be an upward trajectory. If all 8 stand their ground it seems a decent each way play.

    Good luck….

  9. Gordon Elliott takes a team to Perth today with Richard Johnson riding the first picks. There are two odds on shots but also Rightdownthemiddle in the 4.20 is 12/1 and Miro in the 5.20 is 8/1. So you can do the two or put them with Make My Heart Fly in the 2.40 and Jaunty Thor in the 3.45 in a yankee.

    Good luck.

  10. Josh, that s1 winner yesterday got me wondering why there isn’t a smilar strategy on the flat?

    Or extending that question, why are the strategies for flat and NH so different. Do you research the flat differently perhaps?

    (I contrived to miss the winner btw.)

    1. Hi Chris,

      Well Flat S6 is similar, in sense it’s got no odds cap/find bigger priced ones, 6s+, but based on top rated across the three ratings sets.

      My stats profile/approach to the research is similar enough so it won’t be that, will be more a case of how the ratings pointers work/ interact with them, and when I did the original research / trawled through/ tracked etc, that’s what looked best and so far so good. Geegeez Speed for example, top 3 rated and top rated, clearly does well on the jumps, whereas it’s just top rated on the flat.
      Hard to compare jumps + flat stats at all really though, given numerous diff factors in races/how they play out etc.
      Josh

  11. Just a question lads. I have a few bookie accounts, with my betting bank spread across them for the best prices. I mainly do 1 point win singles. Is the exchange the best place to be to do this? Am I better off having the vast majority of my bank in my exchange account? Cheers.

    1. Depends Shaun, no right or wrong answer there and depends what you follow.
      Some of those strategies as above work very well to BFSP etc which gives you options and given some of the prices may be best as to protecting accounts for some of others. Also big Sat handicaps, c2 etc, they can be worth playing on the machine, either taking a price + BFSP also, depending on odds ranges you play at.
      I’m not sure much works on keeping accounts alive for as long as profitable if you’re successful, but I find/have read that…
      -not withdrawing more than half of any account balance at any one time/a period of time. Keep money in them.
      -always taking stand out price. I’m sure they must clock that, if you always lump on Bet365 say when they’re 12s and everyone else is 10s etc.
      -i don’t know if time you bet makes a difference, but bookies like knowing that their prices are as correct as they can be, and they can only know that after they’ve been live for a time, so taking big big prices/having lots on, the evening before, may not be wise too often, but that could be nonsense.

      A mix is good, and spreading bets around, not loading up too much liability with one bookies on one horse, should ensure you last as long as possible. If you’ve got BOG accounts etc still alive, you’re best using them until they no longer exist!

        1. Nope. You either take a price that someone else is willing to lay you etc (effectively) or you take starting price. Depends types of races/odds you play at etc, but is why i’m pleased some of the strategies for example do well on the machine at BFSP, as gives options, esp for those with no accounts left etc.
          BOG may not exist in 10 years, we shall see! In theory we all should all be taking prices that over the stretch are bigger than they should be – otherwise we’re not very good- so BOG or lack of it, shouldn’t be the reason for not winning at the game long term, but it’s nice to have while it’s here/you have access to it.
          Josh

          1. I would agree with Josh. Whilst BFSP is generally (and sometimes massively) better than SP, in my experience taking BOG the evening before or in the morning gives better overall returns. At least that’s what my own system tells me.

    1. He hasn’t shown much this season but if the wind op has had some positive effect Spirit of Zebedee looked interesting and money has come although I wasn’t confident enough to tip him. (I presume this is for a free bet)

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