1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack
2.00 – Earl of Harrow (2YO) 40/1
4.10 – Pretty Jewel (micro age) 14,30 H3 I1 6/1 S2 S6
5.30 – Stonific (m TJC) 14/1
Ingleby Molly (m TJC/age) H3 13/2
Space War (m TJC) ES+H3 8/1 S3A
3.15 – King Muro (all hncps/hncp c + m TJC) H3 I3 G3 10/3 S4
Jaunty Thor (m runs) H1 I1 G3 8/13 S4
Instinctive (m runs) I3 28/1 S5
Lough Derg Jewel (hncp chase) I3 14/1 S2 S5
Kilbree Kid (hncp chase) H3 7/1
Rightdownthemiddle (m runs) w2 G3 11/1 S1 S2
Ahead of The Curve (m TJC) 28/1
William of Orange (m runs) w2 I1 22/1 S2A S5
Ibsen (m runs) 10/1 S2
Green Zone (hncp h) H3 G1 6/1 S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)
Miro (m runs) I3 G3 13/2 S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)
*do note that ANY Jumps qualifier with a G1/G3 that is under 10/1 on morning odds becomes an S1 qualifier IF 11.00+ BFSP. Likewise with I1/I3 (S5). I add a note next to those that are 6s+ generally, but of course the likes of King Muro could drift out. Very rare for that to happen but last season there was a winner at Leicester that was 3s on morning odds, drifted to 14s I think and became an S1, and won.
H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)
G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated
I1/I3 = Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3
14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr
ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ + (rationale/ angles in link above)
S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start. w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)
The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>
‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)
‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)
Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>
IMPORTANT:Welcome Info HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :))
Contact: email: – firstname.lastname@example.org … or failing that… email@example.com
2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)
Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/267,90p, +25.9) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +159)
4.40 Good – Secret Return – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) 3rd
5.00 Red – Casterbridge – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) (11s BetBright) 2nd , damn, exciting run and there to win, sadly bumped into Nick’s who relished the blinkers/rail/racing alone, but I shouldn’t complain too much. Anyone on the 50/1 FC??
Secret Return… i thought this unexposed mare was the most interesting in here and could be a couple of points too big. She’s been nothing but consistent in her races, will appreciate this return to slower ground and I think the extra furlong will suit. Well, if you stay on strongly over 8f at Ascot, 9f around here shouldn’t be a problem. I like the fact Spencer keeps the ride here, he may well be determined to make up for last time out… there’s every chance she needed that after 75 days off, no doubt kept away from fast ground, and she was fresh/keen. She’s often enthusiastic but hopefully that run took some of the edge off. She still ran well enough and given P George hasn’t trained a winner after 60+ days yet (albeit only 4 goes) hopefully she comes on for it. There isn’t much pace in this and she usually races up there. It’s not impossible we get a Spencer special from the front, albeit he may try and get some cover. Given the lack of pace I think the draw should be ok and there shouldn’t be an excuse for getting a decent position here although he’ll be careful not to do a Kupa River and light her up by trying to get the lead/prominent. The Ascot run 4 starts ago was decent. Beaten by a horse who has since gone very close in two class 2s, the front three miles clear. She was staying on again at the end there. She then won at Leicester under hands and heels, another stiff 8f before possibly finding Windsor too fast next time, or the trip not far enough around there. She still ran with credit. Plenty in here are long in the tooth and/or not proven at C4 level. I like the fact she comes here fresh enough after that break and could have a decent end to the season. PGs horses have been going well enough. If she settles, I thought she could be the one to beat here. There’s been money for Master Carpenter but he’s getting on, is on a losing run, and seemed short enough to my eyes.
Casterbridge… this one has a couple of questions here (ground/fitness!) but the positives were just too great for me, at a double figure price. Firstly, the trainer is in form, that was my ‘way in’, 2/6,3p the last 14 days. Pace was also intriguing as I think he’s the only out and out front runner in the field, and has the perfect jockey on board for those tactics. The horse… well these are his conditions. He’s a 5f, class 5 animal… 5/11,6p in those conditions which covers all of his handicap wins. He will win a C5 5f handicap again soon enough. The horse has yet to win from after a break but did go very close at Southwell once, not beaten far at all. And, the trainer does just fine… in 5f handicaps with those returning 60+ days off he’s 6/18,7p…. 5/15,7p when Jason Hart has been booked, and 2/8 at Redcar. Maid In India returned in May after 220 days to win, as an example of the fact the trainer can ready them, if he so pleases. So, I was happy to take the chance given those stats, the horses profile, and the pace set up. Ideally he’d want softer but he hasn’t run many times on good over 5f, in a class 5, and has the odd decent run where I think class beat him more than anything. He’s clearly been kept back for an Autumn campaign and is one to keep an eye on in the coming weeks. If he’s A1 here, I think he’ll take the beating and will get away with the going. The Favourite, Gamesome, is 0/36 in handicaps, 0/26 over 5f. He has run well the last twice but they may not go hard enough for him here. In any case, with stats like that you have to take him on at 7/2! Tudhope may work his magic though. Angel Force is of some interest but is only 1/21 and all hope appears to rest on the blinkers. He drops in class and has the ability to win this well I think, if they work. 8s didn’t seem overly generous to my eyes in that context but we shall see. He did come 2nd here in May off 77, over 5f in a C5, in first time CP. The rest appear to have plenty of questions. I tipped Lexington Place LTO for my sins, expecting it to be set up for him, but the leaders didn’t come back. He’s had a long season and is 0/14,1p all runs September- end Dec. He’s also now 0/25,2p in fields of 12 or more and it could be he’s a funny one that doesn’t like being surrounded by horses on all sides. He has the ability to take this and given my LTO losing tips do ok on their next start, he may get some change on the machine just in case, with preference for mine, and then Nicks! 🙂
That’s the lot for today.
I’m awaiting a de-brief from Blessed’s run… I believe she didn’t play ball and had an off day.. she was very late into the pre-parade ring, having been reluctant to be fitted with the saddle etc. She was better than that run and maybe it was one run too many in 4 or so weeks. That’s the game. Hopefully we can get one more win out of her before the year is out.
3.Micro System Test Zone
Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)
3.15 P – King Muro 7/2
4.20 P – Double Ross 4/1
Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)
3.15 P – Ontopofthworld Evens
4.Any general messages/updates etc
Free Report... if you missed it, Matt at Geegeez is giving away TTS 2018/19 for free, worth the read. I need to find 45 spaces in my HRB accounts! Yes yes it’s part of a bigger launch for Geegeez Gold etc, but it’s worth the read and the launch process is worth following as plenty of freebies along the way, and as always you can unsubscribe, albeit his email list would be one of the top five i’d be on…
Tuesday: looking back
Where to start…
The Strategies...well there are three ‘big odds’ strategies in the Flat +Jumps section 1 portfolio.. Flat S6 , Jumps S1 and S2A… the latter two had 25/1 (40.00 BFSP) and 12/1 (13.8 BFSP) winners on Tuesday.
As of 17th September those three combined were on +211.5 points to 1 point win bets BFSP. Today took them up to +264 points or so, minus/add whatever happened between 18th and 24th! They’ll be updated in due course. Please please read ‘The Strategies: where should you start’ link in the Key above if you haven’t already. They are big odds/low win % and there are various ways you can attack them, esp EW for S2A which is more consistent (fewer losers/shorter losing runs between drinks). They should be attacked with small stakes to start, building up. Even to just £2 win bets that’s a healthy +£528 for the year to date, which is a nice number and after subs etc leaves some left over for some of the finer things in life. That’s where I started with those and i’m now on £10 per point generally which is the level i’m comfortable at with those but come start of 2019 I may re-evaluate. They have and will have some long losing runs combined. S2A has hit -60-80 on the win side, and the others have had some -40+ runs I think. That’s the nature of the approach where the P/L, ROI is more important than winners. But that’s why you should start small etc. Of course that approach may not suit you at all which is fair enough. Many of you won’t back any, some maybe one or two, or all three. And we will all miss the odd winner sadly, life does get in the way at times. But they are very much ‘back them or don’t’ – they throw up winners that make little sense to my subjective eyes at times, but that’s the point! They are logically sound and in live play are proving themselves. I’d take +200 a year, every year, from those three combined, no doubt about that.
Dreamsoftheatre hit jumps S1, on the angle which covers any drifters. He wasn’t 10/1 or bigger on morning odds so didn’t qualify at that time, but did if his BFSP was 11.00 or bigger. You can set that minimum BFSP at any time that suits you, and Video 2 in the Welcome Info link in the Key explains how to do that.
Anyway, hopefully some of you backed one or both of those. A good sign for the jumps season ahead, hopefully.
Tom Lacey… a mad day, where his 8/1 test zone angle returned 40.00 BFSP. I didn’t back him at that price sadly but it appears one of you did!
Through the Card…well that found two winners so no complaints there… considering there were those two monster winners in the content, it’s annoying I didn’t highlight those! I hope Peter may have backed them… ?? That may well have been the most fun he’s had track side if he did!
Tipping... well a poor day. If you don’t look back/reflect, it’s hard to stand still in this game, let alone progress.
Kupa River…I can live with that one…something wasn’t right there. He can be keen and maybe rushing him up to grab a position set off something in him which meant he went backwards pretty quick. It appears the stewards didn’t ask his jockey for an explanation which given how many other horses in the race they enquired after, seems odd…especially how he ran. TH didn’t make any effort on him once the others pulled level turning for home and appeared to just let him drift back in his own time. He clearly has ability for this level I think and just hope they find the key. One to keep an eye on. The way he stopped suggested he may have bled or swallowed his tongue or something. Who knows.
Lofgren… the most annoying effort of the day and an early/timely reminder that we are hitting proper jumping season. He just has not gone the pace there at all (‘winter pace’ ?) and was taken out of his comfort zone and could never get prominent. They went very fast there for a 3m+ chase and he’s not enjoyed it. Maybe just a ‘summer horse’ The winner…well yet again a stats qualifier in section 1 beats me in a race i’ve tipped in. I really need to pay more attention to any Section 1 quals in a 3m+ handicap chase i’m looking at. He had so many trainer /trainer-jockey stats pointers he was worth closer inspection at 12s+. It was only his second chase and a drop in class. He clearly wasn’t right when last seen. It did take a leap of faith and I wasn’t a million miles away. I think I can live with that one, it’s more the assessment of my selection that irks me. I didn’t think for one moment he’d struggle to lay up, which I should have pondered.
The Hendo/De Boinville stats that I did muse over pre race… trainer 7/15,9p at the track in the last year, 6/12,9p with all runners in the last 30 days (in form, just slightly!!) , jockey 5/18,7p at the track in the last year, trainer/jockey 10/24,15p here in last 5 years. What with the fact he was a section 1 qualifier also, I should have pondered deeper at 12s+. Easy to say after of course, but those Geegeez report angles snippets within the race-cards are a gold mine. More focus on those.
The 5.10…again my selection was just out-classed I think but she ran ok…what is annoying is that I read the top of the market correctly and they were all worth taking on. Arguably the other fit and in form horse won, at 14s… I wasn’t that close to the Mulholland horse which on reflection was silly. While she was lucky LTO she was going to come 3rd, with the front 3 miles clear. That was her first run over 19f on good ground, this her second run, over hurdles. She was open to progress in these conditions and the same reasoning behind the selection was applicable to her. She showed up well on the ratings sets also, to give some context to that recent run. With both those winners I mentioned them in the write ups and with some clearer thinking may have landed on one or both, but then again I think I should be finding the winner of every race I tip in.
Finally, it was a reminder how hard it can be to come from off the pace over jumps in general, let alone on good/firm ground.
Always something to ponder, at least those strategies had a good day, and not many like that come along in one hit. Onto tomorrow.