(Free tips 2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018, 9/97,29p, +56.5)
4.40 War – Lofgren – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) UP, awful, never in it, moving on. Poor.
as of 09.29, write up
I’m running out of time this morning, so i’ll try and keep this brief. I thought this one should have been fav in this based on their recent form and that if he repeated his last two runs, he’d be the one to beat. He seems to have been rejuvenated with the cheekpieces and surprised his trainer LTO staying 25f on soft ground at Carlisle. This sort of test should be fine for him and he’s found plenty for pressure the last twice, which is always a positive character trait. I thought of the 3/4 with recent winning form, his may well be the best with the others needing to step forward on recent efforts, which they may well do of course. Bestwork is interesting but he can be keen and as such I was worried about him seeing out this trip, but he could prove me wrong. There’s plenty of pace on paper in this, which the selection should be able to track. I’d be mildly surprised if something is able to get an easy lead/dictate, without going a stride too quick in this. There has been a fair chunk for cash it seems for Laurium WON and Henri Parry Morgan… the former is unexposed over fences, the yard are in form and do well here… trainer/jockey are 10/24,15p at the track in the last couple of years. He does here on the back of three PUs which is a question for him, but he must be doing something at home and this is deeper than the novice he won, and he may struggle to dictate. Given his inexperience and form when last seen I was happy leave, but won’t be surprised if he runs a big race. I thought the ground may be too lively for old Henri and i’d have preferred to see Sean on top. He may come on from his last run and he does get a 1st time visor. He has the ability to take this and maybe that will make the difference, but again he’s a hard one to catch right these days.
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