Free Daily Post: 25/09/18 (complete)

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(Free tips 2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018, 9/97,29p, +56.5)

4.40 War – Lofgren – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) UP, awful, never in it, moving on. Poor.

as of 09.29, write up

I’m running out of time this morning, so i’ll try and keep this brief. I thought this one should have been fav in this based on their recent form and that if he repeated his last two runs, he’d be the one to beat. He seems to have been rejuvenated with the cheekpieces and surprised his trainer LTO staying 25f on soft ground at Carlisle. This sort of test should be fine for him and he’s found plenty for pressure the last twice, which is always a positive character trait. I thought of the 3/4 with recent winning form, his may well be the best with the others needing to step forward on recent efforts, which they may well do of course. Bestwork is interesting but he can be keen and as such I was worried about him seeing out this trip, but he could prove me wrong. There’s plenty of pace on paper in this, which the selection should be able to track. I’d be mildly surprised if something is able to get an easy lead/dictate, without going a stride too quick in this. There has been a fair chunk for cash it seems for Laurium WON and Henri Parry Morgan… the former is unexposed over fences, the yard are in form and do well here… trainer/jockey are 10/24,15p at the track in the last couple of years. He does here on the back of three PUs which is a question for him, but he must be doing something at home and this is deeper than the novice he won, and he may struggle to dictate. Given his inexperience and form when last seen I was happy leave, but won’t be surprised if he runs a big race. I thought the ground may be too lively for old Henri and i’d have preferred to see Sean on top.  He may come on from his last run and he does get a 1st time visor. He has the ability to take this and maybe that will make the difference, but again he’s a hard one to catch right these days.

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8 Comments

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  • Flat
    B 3.55 – Tricksy Sprirt @ 14(poss e/w)
    NH
    3.30 – Peppay le Pugh @ 9/4
    4.40 – Bestwork @ 9
    5.10 – Milam of Crystal @ 14
    5.40 – Bally Lagan @ 13/2

    Titus 25/09/18 8:55 AM Reply


  • GOLF BETS

    No bet this week.

    September
    + 16.8 points from 7 bets

    colin leafe 25/09/18 9:31 AM Reply


  • Golf update – Last week we lost 2 points with Nacho Elvira missing the cut. Webb Simpson joint placed 4th and so we had part of a place that made us 1.5 points. The match bet was successful with Tiger beating Dustin Johnson (1st and 2nd) for 5.25 points. Our Sunday bet on Justin Rose failed and lost us 4 points. Since 29 June I am + 91.25 points to date.
    The only Ryder Cup bet so far is USA win at 10/11 for 10 points. More bets to follow once the matches are known.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 25/09/18 9:32 AM Reply


    • 10 points…woah!

      I am slowly coming round to the fact we may not be completely out of it. I think the bad weekends that Mickelson, Bubba, Koepka had have given me a chink of light.

      Chris Sengelow 25/09/18 10:35 AM Reply


      • Chris,

        We are far from out of it. I have been to matches when we didn’t stand a chance in World rankings but either won the match or got to within a whisker. If you start looking at an individual’s form you will likely go mad. It is all to do with the way they adapt to the environment, the buzz of the week, they way they interact with their players, how the captain gets them going and a huge slice (no pun intended!) of luck.

        Having said all that, purely from a betting proposition 10/11 for the US team is extraordinarily good value and from a non-emotional point of view (which is where Martin comes from as a pro) is the bet of the week.

        Cheers

        Ben

        p.s. Colin – sorry I never got back to you but the daily thread had moved on. Sadly, I am not there this year. The first home match I have not been involved with since 1993 so feeling a bit sore at the moment. Still – it will be 3 fantastic days on the telly with a few drinks so every cloud…..

        921389 25/09/18 3:56 PM Reply


        • Hi Ben,
          thanks for coming back sounds good a few beers and watching the golf,sure it will be a great 3 days,just off to watch the match manure v Derby,they are charging Derby fans £36 robbing -astards.
          Cheers
          Colin

          colin leafe 25/09/18 6:35 PM Reply


  • I normally do win only, but I fancy a ew bet on this. Especially as I have backed Josh’s horse to win.
    20:15 Chelmsford Dreamboat Annie

    Richard 25/09/18 6:30 PM Reply


    • GL Richard, but not too much haha. A 1-2 will do! 🙂

      Josh 25/09/18 6:39 PM Reply


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