Members Daily Post: 25/09/18 (complete)

Daily Tips x2 (+ write up), Section 1 (comp), test zone, + War through the card.

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT

Beverley 

4.30 – Vigee Le Brun (micro age) ES+ I3 G3 15/2 S3A# 2nd 

5.00 – Stringybark Creek (all hncps) w1 H3 I1 3/1 S2 WON 3/1>11/4 

6.00 – 

Whatwouldyouknow (all hncps) w2 H3 6/1 

Polar Forest (all hncps) 20/1 

Outlaw Torn (all hncps) 40/1 

 

JUMPS

Warwick

4.05 – Dreamsoftheatre (hncp h +m class) ES G3 8/1 S3 S1 WON! 25/1 SP, 40.00 BFSP! (qual as S1 on the 11.00+ BFSP angle, which catches the drifters from morning price, as per note below as of 8am) 

S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) (video #2 in the welcome info link in the Key demonstrates setting a min BFSP price if you’re unsure) 

4.40 – 

Laurium (all hncps) 30 16/1 S2A WON 16/1>12/1 (15p R4, 13.6/1…  13.8 BFSP) 

Call To Order (m class move/runs) w1 6/1 3rd 

5.10 – Thelunarschooner (all hncps) 16/1 S2A  UP

 

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/267,90p, +25.9) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +159)

Daily Tips

3.20 Bev – Kupa River – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365/Marathon (not bog)) 14/1 (gen) UP 16/1 … weak enough in the market, that’s one of the strangest runs i’ve seen from a horse…he must have done far too much on the front end, but TH sat motionless 3/4 out as he was swamped and he’s just cut out and gone backwards. Something not right there. Undercooked/overworked at home, or he’s bleed or something. I can’t think he’s gone so fast to explain cutting out like that. Odd. Very odd. 

5.10 War – Milan of Crystal – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365/BV) 12/1 (gen) UP… a bit of a ‘meh’ run really. Krystal Hart rubbing salt in my tipping wounds, having won for S1 LTO rather fortuitously, but backs it up, up in class, game effort. A day for the systems, not for my awful tipping. Onwards. 

that’s it for daily tips, 09.04, write ups…

Kupa River… the test zone was my ‘way in’ here and this one was more than interesting at double figures given he drops into a C5 for the first time for this trainer, he steps back up to a more suitable trip and gets some cut in the ground which is ideal. His mark has dropped, the hood returns, as does the main man for the yard, and he’s one of the few pace angles in here – he’s drawn in the right place to get out, either lead/dictate/kick for home, or track anything that goes by him. He’ll have no excuse today and looked the most intriguing in this to me. I’d have liked to have seen more at Hamilton but that was 1 day after his Thirsk effort, which was over a trip too short. His two runs before that were on quicker than ideal ground I think albeit it was a solid effort at Carlisle, in a race which has worked out well enough. I think if he repeated that run he’d win this, and given he looks to stay 8f no problem, they should be aggressive with him. Trainer/jockey are 4/20,9p in Beverley handicaps, 3/12,6p + 11 when those are C5, and with any luck they can add to those stats here. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t go close in a muddy C5 handicap before the season is out, and hopefully i’m not a run too soon again! He doesn’t show up that well ‘on the numbers’ (my 3 ratings sets I use..HRB/GG/Inform) so it could be he isn’t good enough but this race seems open enough with plenty having something to prove. I did think Beverley Bullet was the main danger here but is usually held up so will need some luck in running.

Milan of Crystal… i thought 12s was too big here and a disservice to her chance. I’ve gone for the fit, in form, solid yardstick here, given everything else has some sort of question. She’s the only one in the race i’d bank on getting a good run from in these conditions (cue early disaster now!) I think she ran in this race last year, and was in there pitching three out when falling, albeit from a much lower mark. I can’t say as yet that she can’t win from this rating and at these odds i’ll give her the benefit of the doubt. This trip is fine for her (she stays further) as is the ground, which could be quick enough unless they’ve over-watered. I thought if she repeated that last run she wouldn’t be far away here and she’ll appreciate being back against her own sex. It’s not impossible that this race falls apart and she’s the last one standing and as such i’ll take a chance. Something may prove themselves to be thrown in/ahead of their mark.. the Williams horse would be top of that list. The yard are on fire and they can get them fit, but the break is a question in the context of price. Her win LTO looked more emphatic than it was given she was about to get into a scrap with the fav when that one fell. It’s hard to know what to make of the form but she’s unexposed and was in form when last seen, which can’t be said for many in here. I get the impression the bookies are just scared of Dan Skelton. He had a few at silly prices on Sunday, most of whom got beat, and how his was put in at 5s here I have no idea. She’s just out of form, with seemingly no excuse. Maybe she will win, but on recent efforts that price was silly. Massini’s Dream doesn’t seem to like winning, when she’s been expected to do so. The Greatrex horse looks out of form. There’s a chance 16f has taken her out of her comfort zone and this longer trip will suit. But i’d have preferred to see a staying on effort, rather than tailing off LTO. Just For Tara is unexposed but the trainer is only 1/31 with those returning 60+ days off, so i’d want a bigger price for that one but Denis has come over the water for the ride. The Mullins horse ‘needs’ softer i think, and again has had a break. There were nibbles for Min Tiky… maybe the wind op has worked wonders but she has shown nothing in her career to date so i’m happy to watch, but won’t fall off my seat if we see an improved run. Maybe she’s been working well at home. I’ll mention Scented Lily…who i’ll fear more if the price shortens to 8s or so.. she’s yet to win but ran well at Market Rasen and could build on that. She fell NTO and I suspect she remembered that on her next start. CL can get them ready and is another lightly raced one, but not in great form when last seen and hasn’t won a race yet. Kristal Hart was a lucky winner LTO (not that we were complaining given an S1 qual) in a weaker race. Maybe that win will give her renewed confidence but I was happy to leave. She was running well though and would have placed, so maybe no forlorn hope.

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Autumn Trainers

C Longsdon (8/1 < best) 

2.55 W – On Raglan Road 16/1 2nd 16/1>10/1 (20p R4)

4.40 W – Bestwork 9/1 UP

5.10 W – Scented Lady 14/1 3rd

5.40 W- Djarkevi 9/1 UP

NTD (22/1<) 

2.20 W – Larch Hill 66/1 3rd  66/1> 33/1

E Lavelle

4.05 W – Lady Markby 10/1 UP

 

*

D McCain (14/1< guide)

4.40 W – Lofgren 13/2 UP

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.30 W – Hurricane Rita 20/1

Tom Lacey 

2.55 W – He’s A Goer 12/1 WON 9.6/1 (20p R4) > 8/1 (possibly 40.00 BFSP?!!)

*

Flat 

R Fell

3.20 B – Kupa River 16/1 UP

5.00 B – Zodiakos 15/2 UP

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Blessed To Empress (Chelm 8.15) 

Having had a quick look I think she’s got a sporting EW chance here at 7s or so, albeit maybe that’s my owner’s eyes clouding my judgement! 🙂 Everything in here has some sort of question to answer and BtE is nothing but a trier. I think she’d have won a C5 around Lingfield when SDS rode her last year, but missed the start and then go no run up the inside when tanking. So, I don’t think this level is beyond her in handicaps. Indian Pursuit is 0/13 in C5 races so has that to prove. Blessed is drawn in 1 and won’t have to use as much petrol as LTO to get a prominent position. Anyway, she should run her race and who knows. Not one to go mad on this time and I don’t feel as confident as Brighton – it’s certainly a deeper race, and it looks a bit better than LTO also. We shall see. I can’t make it sadly but will be in Worcester on Friday to watch Super. 

 

Really Super (runs Friday)

Shares available…just an early heads up…i’ll post any thoughts as to her chance closer to the race but for info –  there are 20% of shares available in her (8 x 2.5%) for next year which runs from the 1st of Oct I think. I’ll post up more details in the next few days, but the prospect may excite some of you and you can join Doug and I as the growing RTP influence within White Diamond Racing! 🙂 She should give us plenty of fun in the coming years.

*

Warwick

‘through the card’ thoughts, just so Peter knows who to avoid on his trip to the races! 🙂 

2.20 – Nylon Speed (if jumping, maybe could have too much speed for fav) WON 3/1 

2.55 / Hendo’s should win if taking to hurdles, Fearsome EW UP for track side interest if you must, maybe.

3.30 – Peppay Le Pugh UP (slipped, would have been bang there at finish,if not winning)

4.05 – Silk Run does look solid in this, could improve further for trip. Lillian UP / Lady Markby UP for bigger odds/interest

4.40 – Lofgren – a tip in the free post. UP

5.10 – Milan of Crystal (tip above) UP  Scented Lily 3rd interesting if pos market vibes.

5.40 – Jonagold WON 9/2 

*

 

 

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

36 Responses

  1. One winner so far with Polybius going from last to first in the last 2 furlongs to pip Airshow on the line. Thought he’d left it a bit late but got there in the end. Still a few more chances to come tonight at Newcastle.

    Lingfield and Chelmsford tomorrow. Here are the qualifiers:
    Lingfield
    1.30 The Warrior 7/1
    2.00 Debbonair 4/1
    3.10 Moans Cross 5/1
    4.20 Cheeky Rascal 9/1
    5.20 Spin Top 7/1 (9/1 available with PP but not BOG for me so will proof to 7/1)

    Chelmsford
    5.45 Rollicking 13/2
    6.45 Sonnet Rose 4/1
    8.15 Kodicat 6/1

    All 1pt win.

    Good Luck

    1. Top Offer also won at 6/1 SP/BOG and with 1 NR that gives us a small profit of 1pt for the day. Better than a loss 🙂

    2. Looks like we both picked out Moans Cross in the 15:10. Hopefully it is a good omen! I’m doubled up as I back yours as well, double or nothing

  2. Timetodock Beverley Tuesday 14:10 1pt e/w-I can’t hit the broad side of a barn right now so its probably folly to be backing a horse in a two year old novice race but the form of his last race has worked out well with the front three winning NTO and I think the drop back to 5f will suit so in an average looking race he looked a little over priced. Allan and Easterby are 5/21, 8p at the track in the past 90 days.

  3. Someone said they were off to Warwick……two that look a bit of value.

    4.40 MARQUIS OF CARABAS 33s… Jockey here for this one ride and gets on well with the horse. Rides well for the stable. His form round here in handicap chases is top draw. Horse ran well here on previous visit. Worried by PICKAMIX …..This horse must have a serious chance and the 73 day break won’t be a problem.Exacta maybe?

    5.40 MOUNT RUSSELL 14s…..They are sure to exploit this handicap mark soon and i’m hoping it’s today. This horse is still learning but can jump. Willing to ignore the last run. This step up in trip is sure to suit. It would be nice to see some money around for it ….. they like a punt. Although 14s does seem skinny.

    1. good stuff Jarrod, best of luck. Hope you’re wrong about the 4.40! Thought M just looked badly out of sorts and well held behind Lofgren at Bangor, but suppose a return to that Ffos Las run may see him get involved.

    1. good stuff Kev… would you mind enlightening us to your methods? or a rough idea as to how you home in on your selections! 🙂 I find that as interesting as the horses mentioned. Look forward to seeing how they go over time. best of luck.

  4. Hurrah for a decent jumps card at Warwick and my old friend HENRI PARRY MORGAN who is at odds that suggest with him hunting round and with Sean Bowen on board will keep him going again! 16/20’s is too big and i will fill my boots with that! Saver on The Young Master for insurance.

  5. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    B 3.20 – Kupa River on 3rd run @ 16
    C 6.45 – Sayesse on 5th run @ 16
    C 7.15 – Repton on 4th run @ 20
    Festival
    B 3.55 – Savalas on 3rd run @ 9/2
    B 3.55 – Copper Knight on 2nd and 3rd run @ 8
    C 7.15 – Sea Fox on 1st run @ 16
    GL
    Mike

        1. 55 was IR high. I’m not very good at judging pace but I don’t think I would have been a layer at 55s given it was an apprentice hcap! A good spectacle all the same.

  6. Bestwork Warwick 16:40 1pt e/w-I was mulling this one last night but given the drift this morning decided to get off the fence. There are questions about plenty of these but this one arrives in form and certainly looked like the step up in trip will suit (as does the breeding). Will be out in front and hopefully will stay there come the end. Trainer thrives at this time of the year.

    1. Hi Josh
      Just arrived at Warwick noticed the through the card selections so thx very much for that along with the tips from you,Nick,Sp2a,Jarrod and the stats hopefully will be a good day thx again and good luck to all
      Peter

      1. No problem, have fun. Hopefully the collective wisdom leads to a few winners/not too much damage done! 🙂

        The 3.30… on reflection that’s between the top two in market… weighing up proven chase form vs the exciting unexposed one from C Williams…market vibes would suggest he’s the reason Denis has flown over maybe, we shall see! A coin toss…maybe see how he looks pre race etc/whether like a chase. Placed in a point.
        May be a case of throwing some of the shorties, esp in non handicaps, into some fun track side multiples if you so dare!
        Have fun,
        Josh

  7. Chris M Selections:
    Lingfield:
    15:10 – Moans Cross (13/2 gen)

    Had internet issues this morning so took a bit longer to get this one honed in on, good luck today 🙂

    1. oh. Well done. sometimes i’m an amateur at best! All said with hindsight of course..but a) why haven’t i just highlighted the 2 test zone picks in the through the card. I hope Peter threw darts at all the biggies! b) that’s some BFSP, sadly I wasn’t on that price… and a timid token bet at 12s before R4, for what is prob one of better test zone angles I’ve researched. And with such a short priced fav, who was making hurdle debut, makes sense that his BF price would be huge. Still, i hope you were not the only one on at that price! super stuff. Just shows how much improvement a novice can make. Truly abject hurdling wise LTO on debut. Clearly came on for it and appreciated drop in trip. They can’t have done much work with him over hurdles before that last run. Moving on! 🙂

  8. Just back from New York and glad to be feeling the cool west wind again.I always like to follow profitable track trainers and jockeys that are in profit over all and hone in on the profitable angle

    5.45 Chelmsford So Hi Class 10/1 BV
    Botti 18% SR +43 2 YO
    Monaghan/Botti 8/42 on aw +25
    Horse won nicely with blinkers applied for first time

    1. oh don’t say that, they’ve been doing well in recent weeks! An all year round system. Yea best move on sharpish haha, 40.00 and 13.8 on the machine also. Gulp. That’s 2x 40.00 on the blog today, albeit didn’t back the first on machine sadly.

  9. All I can say is who needs to be pouring through flat variables when you can have these gems,just had Laurium but there was 50 odd pts to be had in an afternoon,roll on the proper racing

  10. What a day to forget your strategy qualifiers. When the betting gods are against you, they really bloody hate you! Well done to all that were on!

  11. Hi all,

    Anyone able to employ their box of tricks on Ryan/Stott combos please?

    Been winning a few recently I’ve noticed, may be a way in?

    Cheers,

    1. someone (sorry I didn’t make a note) on here did put some stats up for them at beginning of flat ’17 which was to back all 2yo on turf only and forget the rest, whether that has changed I wouldn’t know for sure but this years win% stats would appear to enforce that rule.
      Mike

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.