Free Daily Post: 24/09/18 (complete)

Nothing from me today.

Nothing from me today.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. On a poor run atm
    L 3.20 – Lamplighter @ 5/2
    H 4.00 – Wheres Jeff @ 5/2
    K 5.40 – Global Spirit @ 11
    N 8.00 – Sumner Beach @ 5

  2. Monday 24th September Leicester
    Leicester 2.20pm 7f Novice D1
    Ratings
    1. Global Hero, Glenn Miller, Reeth, Chicago Doll
    2. Attainment, Global Quality, House Of Kings, Manton Warrior
    Previously seen
    Global Hero although the smallest in the field was by far the most racy and ‘ready’ looking despite the supposed principals having all raced. 83
    I rated Chicago Doll 67 on debut but I doubt she is much more than a 60 horse
    Manton Warrior – A bit tubular for my taste but showed early speed, fairly fit 70
    Conclusion
    This looks like it should be Global Hero first the rest nowhere, I will be interested to see how he looks in the paddock, he looked quite a slight type on debut and his opponents all looked a bit ordinary. I also have a nagging doubt about SDS whizzing them up for debut then them under-performing nto. Can’t really recommend a bet particularly if he drifts before the off.
    Leicester 2.50pm 7f Novice D2
    Ratings
    1. Past Glories
    2. Extreme Force, Faro Angel, God Has Given, Nubough,
    3. Pukka Tique
    Having watched a replay of Faro Angel’s debut run at Ascot I shall be very wary of taking him on. He looked a big unit, quite green and never asked to do more than progress under hands and heels under a typical JPS debut teaching ride. I would be surprised if JPS employs such waiting tactics today. The ground should be fine. One with experience that I did quite like on debut at Goodwood, Confils goes for George Baker. I gave her 66 which should not be good enough to win this but she might run into a place at huge odds. Currently 65’s on BF.
    .5 pt e/w Confils .5pt rev exacta Faro Angel, Confils
    Watch her finish 4th.
    Leicester 4.50 Nursery
    Ratings
    1. Posh Perfect, Gold Arrow, Mersey, Siberica
    2. Cotubanama, Nakakande, Antonia Clara, Elieden, Showu, Vena D’Amore, Amelia R
    Four joint top rated and seven joint second here, so like most nurseries a bit of a lottery.
    The one that is the best in against my versions of OR is Siberica
    1pt e/w Siberica
    Hugh

  3. I think Tyrell Hatton at 25/1 ew to be top Euro points scorer this weekend is a fantastic price.

    He qualified in third position so has more than earnt his position in the team.

    Looking at the team I can see only Rory, Justin, Molinari and Tommy Fleetwood playing all 5 games which means there’s going to be plenty of spare places available so would hope Hatton will play 3 games minimum. If he plays 4 then this would put the bet in a great position.

    I’m in the ‘America are too strong for us’ camp which means I don’t think it’ll take a large number of points for this to win.

    Rafa CB scored 2.5 points last time round and Thomas Pieters was top scorer last time round. Both will have been decent prices given they were rookies so hoping for the same again.

    Hatton has two top 10s in majors this year, got to the final 16 of the world matchplay and had a top 20 in the French Open.

    He may well come home empty handed but at 25/1 I think this price is huge

    1. The UK players are out of form and I would say it is lump on time on the U.S.

      I will post up some match bets as we go. The higher rated players on the Europe team will be overpriced and so we can oppose them. Re Hatton, yes I can see your angle in. I would put Thorben Oleson in that category. He is very good but streaky and so if he is on a going week he could go in if he plays. The danger is Bjorn goes with his old guard too much in matches?

      1. I can only presume that’s why they are such high odds but surely only Rory, Tommy, Rose, Molinari and Rahm are pencilled in?

        This means there are plenty of places to fight for and I think he may get at least 3 games. If he is teamed with Rory or Rose that’ll be a formidable partnership.

        Worth finding out at 25s although partly wish I’d waited till after the morning partnerships as he could well drift if not named. Worth keeping an eye on the exchange and hope he plays on the afternoon.

  4. Don’t know what i am missing,
    five bookmakers have the USA at 10/11 to win the Ryder Cup,
    which find amazing for everyone that i have spoken to cannot see past the USA winning,very generous bookmakers?

    1. Listening to podcasts some of them are hanging on to the Europe thing that a lot of the Americans have not played the course before. However the European Tour is nowhere near the standard of the U.S. tour these days. I may come unstuck but it is the U.S. big in my book.

      1. Really disagree, think Europe are far too big for the win.

        The big reasons for me are:
        – The U.S have only won 1 once this side of the pond since the 90s
        – Its a idiosyncratic track where driver is only in hand on 4 or 5 holes. Only Justin Thomas bothered played the French Open so we are far more experienced playing there.
        – They may have slightly higher rankings player for player, but you can pick holes in a lot of the U.S players right now. DJs head isn’t in the game, JT/Speith/Bubba off the boil. Woods never has played well at a RC.
        – Euros are in better form than people say, Rose just won the Fedex over there, Rory contending the last few, Poulter contending in a few majors. Plus they have a good partnerships and a strong bond and are very good at match play.

        Not saying it will be easy but i think there are a lot of factors people aren’t considering and just looking at world rankings. Whatever happens it should be a great spectacle as always.

        1. I like tour optimism and I hope you’re right but I would still rather be in their position.

          They have a very strong nucleus who have dominated the majors over the last couple of years. Our nucleus is Rose, Mcilroy, Molinari (Not in the same form as the summer), Rahm (rookie) and Fleetwood (rookie).

          We all know the concerns with our wildcards picks and then you look at theirs – Finau has had 4 top 10 in majors this year and should be a fantastic match player then DeChambeua and Woods are in fantastic form.

          I am slightly coming round to the fact that we may have a chance but I do think their team is far superior to ours. Hopefully home advantage and the fact the course should suit us more will swing it. There is nothing to say the big hitters won’t easily adapt either: John Rahm and Justin Thomas both got within three shots three months ago there

          1. They may have better individuals but its a team game and match play requires a completely different mentality to stroke play. Some of the rookies will never felt the heat of this battle and the pressure that goes along with it. They’re used to flag waving patriots willing them to win not a partizan crowd against them. I don’t think you can really equate the Ryder cup atmosphere to anything else in golf. Thats why we’ve gone with experience for our wild card picks.

            That said, their rookies may take to it and be a new breed, some of their players I like a whole lot and seem to have a good attitude and our veterans could under perform. I just don’t think the factors in my first paragraph are considered (or not highly enough anyway) and thats why I think Europe are a betting proposition

  5. I could not agree more James, indeed all of your points imho spot on.

    Since the mid 80’s at The Belfrey (still the best Ryder Cup venue btw) once the myth that The US Tour was the best and the US were unbeatable was debunked, we get this “US TOUR is the strongest” and “US are strong favourites” every RC.

    The US Tour is stronger than European Tour, why; because all of the top Europeans fill out, enhance and perform exceptionally well on the US Tour, whilst too few Americans have the balls to come and test their game in Europe often enough.

    The other issue for me in the Ryder Cup has always been “the team ethic”, 12 often squabbling individuals v a team of guys who play for the jumper for the week. With the possible exception recently of Patrick Read, always feel Yanks are going through the motions and thinking more of the last or next big individual pay-cheque, whereas the Europeans, play with a spirit and team ethic that can distract and intimidate the individuals.

    It is a unique event, unique pressure, unique history, it can make heroes and destroy reputations, and I don’t think any European Team can ever be written off on “rankings” as in the heat of Ryder Cup battle, they mean absolutely nothing and it is down to who grabs the moment and enjoys it, rather than fears it.

    Go Europe…

    1. Agree 100% and put much more articulately than I could Ian, the Ryder Cup is a magical one off event and team spirit and belief can go along along way. We also have some exceptional match play players that thrive on the pressure. Cant wait 🙂

      1. I come at it purely from a betting angle. The Americans have a much better team in terms of current world rankings and their players are in better form than the Europeans.
        But it is all about opinions and obviously from a non betting angle I would be firmly behind Europe. We shall see who was correct on Sunday. Let battle commence!

        I love the 10/11 USA and am on.

  6. First of all would expect we all want Europe to win the Ryder Cup,but agree with Martin on a betting angle would favor the USA.
    For the Americans not having the balls to come over to Europe,guess its the prize money European win £350,000, PGA Tour win $1,500,000,if i was a top golfer know were i would be playing my golf,that is why the top European golfers go to the States for the money.

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