Members Daily Post: 24/09/18 (complete)

Tips x3 / Sect 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT

Hamilton

2.30- Vallarta (micro age) w1 H1 3/1 UP

4.30 –

Dandys Beano (all hncps/3yo+) H3 G3 12/1 S5 UP

Hot Hannah (m class/age) 5/1 2nd

5.00 – Zealous (m runs) 12/1 UP

 

Leicester

None.

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/265,90p, +27.9) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +159)

 

Daily Tips

2.30 Ham – Vallarta – 1 point win – 9/2 (bet365/WH/BV/PP) 4/1 (gen) UP 8/1.. Ah. well, i’d say the market told the story there but this one drifted LTO when winning. He hasn’t backed up that run, didn’t look as soft as I thought,and nearside rail definitely favoured so got that wrong. Don’t think that’s cost him, couldn’t back up that run and i’ve picked the wrong Carr horse on the card! 

3.00 Ham- Highwayman – 1 point win – 25/1 (bet365/SkyB) 20/1 (gen) 2nd (neck) 18/1 Ah damn… well that was exciting. The best horse on the day has won that, we needed a bit of luck there, shame his run wasn’t blocked off etc, and that he put it all in. Got the heart racing, so can’t complain. 

5.20 Leic – Elation – 1 point win – 12/1 (betfS/PP) 10/1 (gen) UP 12/1…hmm, an ok run, running on into 4th. Drifted back out having shortened earlier in the day, which can always be a tad ominous. The 2nd was next to her in the early part of the race so it wasn’t impossible from further back. She did respond for pressure though and maybe wants softer and/or further. One to watch on next three starts I think. 

that’s all for today, 09.16, write up…

 

Vallarta… well a ‘shorty’ for me here who was just too tempting at 9/2, having drifted from around 3s at 8am. Based on that last run he should be fav in here, given he had a few of these behind him also, and if he repeated that run he would win again against these. Whether he does repeat it is the question but it’s exactly the same conditions, he has a bit of pace he can just sit behind and he did it a shade cosily LTO. The extra 3lb wouldn’t have stopped him there I don’t think.  The jockey didn’t have to get after him at all in the closing stages and he could have won by further. When it’s soft here it can pay to be up the middle. I don’t think it’s an advantage to be high, but we shall see. I don’t see an excuse on that front. This is about whether he repeats that run I think, as if he does he’s the one to beat again.

Highwayman… I couldn’t resist a nibble at this price given he’s one of the few in here proven on the ground and who stays, as well as only one of two with a course win to their name. He won’t be found wanting for stamina here and will be plugging on. Whether something has flown by then, we shall see, but the hope is that plenty of these may fall in a hole and he’ll just keep going. This is only his 6th start in a flat (turf) handicap and his win four starts ago was his first go on proper soft. Given he’s 0/14,0p after breaks of 31 days or more, there’s every chance that he needed his run LTO or in any case will strip fitter for it. He ran ok there to a point, before fading/plugging on. He is a hold up horse so will need some luck but I get a big price to find out. There isn’t loads of pace on paper but if plenty in here don’t handle the ground/trip, that may not matter as much. Maybe his flat win was just a fluke but i’ll pay to find out and given he went off at 28/1 for his Newcastle win, the market won’t be much of a guide. An interesting outsider I thought.

Elation… Varian’s form was my ‘way in’ here in what looks an open race on paper with nothing really proven against all race conditions (going/class/trip). His string are going well and he can’t keep many C5 handicappers in his yard and nor do these owners I doubt, so it could be significant that shes still in his care. Given she’s three, and her profile, I hope the break of 80 days or so is a positive. They may have discovered something at home or just given her time to strengthen up. There’s a chance that she wasn’t in love with fast ground the last twice, nor with headgear. Her maiden win at Ripon was on GS and that race has produced plenty of winners. The 2nd is now OR 71, the 3rd OR 92. Her mark has dropped 11lb from her first handicap four starts back. It could be she’s just moderate but connections must think there’s something there and in what looked at open race, I wanted to take a chance on her at double figures. If/when it all clicks, she could bolt up from this mark and is one to watch on her next few starts, esp if they run her on soft again. This ‘good’ ground should hold no excuses.

That’s the three for today. I suspect Vallarta may set the tone! Gulp. Best of luck.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

5.30 Newc – Ad Libitum

8.00 Newc – Justice Pleasing

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. Hi Josh
    I am going to Warwick on Tues 25th if you can find any time to have a look at the card that would be great and if anybody else has any thoughts would be much appreciated also
    Regards

    Peter Lucas

  2. COLINS BETS

    Only 1 bet in the end with Pammi being backed from 7/2 to 7/4 could only finish 2nd,story of this month for we had one in the week which was backed from 9/1 to 5/2 but could only finish 2nd,will not change my methods after this dire month of September for many of the bets have been heavily backed without winning.

    September
    Bookmaker SP -27.625 points
    BOG – 18.875 points

  3. AW action at Kempton and Newcastle on Monday. Qualifiers below:

    Kempton
    2.10 Starchant 7/2
    3.40 Pytilia 4/1
    4.40 Watchable 5/1 & Polybius 3/1

    Newcastle
    6.00 Orobas 7/1 & Exclusive Waters 8/1
    8.00 Totally Magic 10/1
    8.30 Joyful Star 5/1 & Top Offer 4/1
    9.00 Alexandrakollontai 10/1 & Roman Spinner 10/1

    All 1pt win. Hopefully a couple of winner in there.

    Good Luck

  4. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    L 5.50 – Hedging on 6th run @ 20
    N 6.00 – Savannah Moon on 2nd run @ 12
    N 8.00 – Totally Magic on 3rd run @ 9/2
    N 8.30 – Foxrush Take Time on 3rd and 4th run @ 10
    Festival
    K 4.40 – The Daley Express on 1st run @ 20
    L 3.50 – Move in Time on 4th run @ 9

    Sorry it’s late again. Once again I failed to get a email from tracker and have had to check every runner. Anyone know of one that’s unlimited?
    Mike

    1. If you have access to Horse Race Base they offer an enhanced account for £15 per month, only £5 more then their standard one. This gives you unlimited (appears as 100000 in the tracking page) slots to track horses. I have just shy of 400 tracked and have had no issues with getting an email every morning, plus you can view them on the site in your qualifiers section. You can even view them the day before I am sure.

      I moved to using the HRB tracker due to other trackers failing me and not coping with the number of horses I track.

        1. HRB are not taking any new subscriptions at the moment, but I think if you get a recommendation from an existing subscriber you may get in.

    2. Daily runners = 35
      Winners = 3 @ bog 6, 12, 11. sp 11/2, 7, 11
      p/l @ bog – 3
      p/l @ sp – 8.5
      There were 4 plcs @ 16, 12, 11 and 16

      Festival runners = 18
      Winners = 1 @ bog 9/2, sp 3
      p/l @ bog – 12.5
      p/l @ sp – 14
      There were 0 plcs

      3m+ runners = 1
      Winners = 0
      p/l @ bog and sp -1
      there were no plcs
      Mike

  5. Chris M Selections:
    Nothing from me today, could not find value in my shortlist. See below for last week’s results.

    Re-Cap w/c 17/9/18:
    14 bets – 3 winners & 1 N/R
    S/R: 23.08%
    ROI: +111.54%
    P/L: +14.5 pts

    Overall:
    384 bets – 71 winnners and 9 N/R
    S/R: 18.98%
    ROI: +12.62%
    P/L: +47.31 pts

    June: -10.4 pts
    July: +33.68 pts
    August: -0.97 pts
    Sept: +25 pts (ongoing)

    The run of profitable weeks continues and baring a complete blowout to end September, it looks like a profitable month. ROI is starting to head in the right direction for the overall, I like to be around 15% or above. Few decent priced runners I left on the shortlist on Saturday could have boosted the winnings after Waarif got me off to a blinder at 12/1. If I didn’t have 3 pokes in the Gold Cup I might have included them in my selections, lured in by big prices.

    1. Well done Chris, building up some good numbers there. A 10-15% is more than decent long term. Reading that Channing interview in the post during the week I was surprised to read that Tony Bloom aims for 1% ROI on his football betting!

      Can you remind me again as to some of the method to your madness/approach? I’m sure you’ve mentioned it before but I can’t remember!

      Josh

      1. Cheers Josh. Yeah I think I read that same article and I was rather astounded that he aims soo low on the ROI scale!

        Sure thing. I start with two ways into the days racing; one way is using a combination of some of the information found on this site along with systems I have running in HRB to provide a list of horses; the second is what I call my eye catchers, these are horses that I have watched the replay of the race and noted them for some reason (mark reducing, distance that might help, etc). With this long list of horses I then use a combination of ATR Speed ratings, form analysis and a slimline version of the ratings that I used to produce in the free post for the ITV 7 races (rating potentially 7 races with upwards of 15 runners became too much for me too do with a FT job and other commitments). This helps understand the strength of each horse against the field. Using this combination I get a shortlist, I then create a quick tissue for each race in the shortlist and compare it against the available odds, if the available odds are better than mine then I see value and it becomes a selection.

        No doubt I have made the method of selection very long winded but I am tweaking it and improving it all the time. Some of the members here gave some good advice in the past which I now apply to my method/madness 🙂

  6. Duke Of Firenze is dropping down the weight s and is 25/1 in the 3.50 at Leicester. At his best he would sail past these. I would go win only as he is either going on to win or continuing to regress.

    U.S, Racing Tips – since 29 June +50.5 points. We are treading water a bit this month. I will continue with the same approach until month end and then analyse whether to continue with it or give it a tweak or two?

    Good luck.

  7. That’s the game. Bets horse on day has won that, was on top enough come the line, but thought he may pull himself up/we were getting back up. Not to be. Needed some luck and his run to be blocked off at some point! All evens out etc. But yea, would have been nice if he’d have won. On we go.

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