Members Daily Post: 22/09/18 (complete)

ALL Tips x7/ Section 1 (comp) test zone, Ayr musings…

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT

Newbury

1.45 – 

Original Choice (all hncps 5 yrs, all) 14 ES+H3 G3 12/1 S3A# S5 UP

My Lord And Master (all hncps 5 yrs, all) (hncp debut) 14 11/1 UP

Pivoine (micro dist) 14,30w1H1 G1 6/1 S1 S6 

 

Catterick

5.20 – 

Naples Bay (m TJC/class) H3 I1 G3 4/1 S2 S4 S5 

Mischief Managed (m dist) H3 5/1 

Munthany (m dist) 18/1 

Meshardal (m age) I3 12/1 

5.50 – 

Bee Machine (3yo+ hncp) w2 5/1 

Burnieboozle (m TJC/class) 20/1 

Sir Derrick (m dist) 20/1 

 

Ayr

none.

Newmarket (Rowley) 

none.

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

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‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/262,89p, +30.9) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +159)

Daily Tips

5.20 Catt – Redrosezorro – 1 point win – 17/2 (bet365/BV) 8/1 (gen) WON 8/1>7/2 

that’s it for ALL tipping content, write up to follow…

Alston has burst into life in recent days and has a superb record at the track, in part helped by this horse. He ran in a C5 LTO, in deep ground over 7f up that stiff Carlisle hill. He was also a bit keen. I think all of those reasons may be an excuse for that run, or i’ve read it wrong and he is just out of form. Given he’s 3/9,6p in C6 handicaps (015,1p above), 3/10,6p in ground with soft in the description (0/14,1p good or better), 3/9,4p in 12+ runner races (0/15,3p below…i suspect the pace may help him settle) and 1/4,3p over CD, I was happy to have a go at around 8s, which seemed big enough to me, especially as i’m not 100% convinced that some of the others will handle the ground as well. Supreme Power is a big danger and i see Nick has tipped him, so with any luck one of us is right. I liked the jockey booking and he should race him up there, tracking the 3/4 who like to go forward. Hopefully they take each other on/go too quick, and can set it up for him, but often when I think that one can just dictate! I thought he looked over-priced and will win another C6 before the season is out I suspect, hopefully its this one.

 

Festival Tips

2.40 Ayr

Green Power – 1 point win – 25/1 (gen) (40.00 Betfair Exc) UP

Snazzy Jazzy – 1 point win – 18/1 (lad/uniB) 16/1 (gen) (20.00 BF exch) WON 16/1 > 12/1 (BFSP 15.7) 

Hyperfocus – 1 point win – 18/1 (gen) (24.00 BF exch) UP

Wahoo – 1/2 point win – 28/1 (betfS/Lad/Uni) 25/1 (gen) (30.00 BF exch) UP

 

3.50 Ayr

Terentum Star – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365/Lad/BetfS/PP) 14/1 (others) UP

Aces – 1 point win – 18/1 (bet365/lad/BetfS/PP) 16/1 (others) UP

 

That will be all for Festival tips today, 10.10…write ups…

Green Power… looking at this race with fresh eyes this morning, I thought this one looked a big price at 25s. Heavy is a question but he has a decent win on soft to his name and I’m banking on him relishing it. He’s lightly raced, unexposed, has some decent big field handicapping form, and is in form. The ground would have been too fast for him LTO I think as it was at York, where he was only beaten 2L in that decent 3Yo handicap, not putting down fully. He has a touch of class i think and could give his young jockey his biggest winner to date. He like to make all/press the pace, and from 14 can hopefully spearhead up the middle/edge near side. It may be you definitely need to be high, on the fresh strip of ground, but at his price I couldn’t resist. I have avoided anything in single figure draws and if one of them wins, so be it.

Snazzy Jazzy…another who on closer inspection looked interesting on this ground. It’s the softest he’s run on since dotting up in a valuable race at The Curragh last season, which was soft/heavy. He tore that field apart from on the pace and while i’m not sure as to the strength of that form, he is lightly raced and there should be more to come at some point. It’s only his 5th run of the season and he ran as if coming back to some form LTO, staying on/going forward at the line. I just wanted to see him on this heavy ground, especially from his high draw. I can only assume they’ll change up tactics again and revert to a more prominent style. Well, here’s hoping.

Hyperfocus…well he’s covered below really. One of only two in the race with a win on heavy, in handicaps, Maarek being the other…were he drawn higher he may have out-run his odds but he’s 11 and surely younger legs will have him! He needs the visor to work but Palmer knows what he’s doing with headgear and hopefully it works, he relishes the return to a bog, and he can race up there. Trainer/jockey do well together in handicaps. He was an interesting outsider.

Wahoo…as was Wahoo… who maybe i’ve bottled a bit with a 1/2 point, and we all know my history with those. There was just something niggling at me for full confidence. That run was poor LTO and on reflection he was there to run his race I think. Maybe he didn’t like York. And his win in soft was only a small field affair and he doesn’t have the strength of handicapping form as some of these. But, he is interesting and is a high drawn pace pusher, who does get soft- heavy a slight unknown. Willing to have a go but I think more in hope than expectation. We shall see!

Terentum Star… I tipped him LTO where he lost the race at he beginning when stumbling and then also lost a shoe. I’ll just ignore that run. This horse relishes soft ground and knows how to win a big field handicap, and his trainer knows how to win this race. At his best he’d bounce out and race up there from this draw. Heavy is a question, as it is for all bar 2 in this (in terms of winning handicap form) but the way he relishes soft gives me hope and this will have been the plan for a while I suspect. 7 year olds and older have a poor record in this, so it could be his last chance to win it. He was targeted at the race last year I think, and didn’t run in it when it was relocated. I’d be disappointed if he didn’t give me a run for my money here.

Aces…he’s interesting and comes from the only ‘in form’ trainer in the race (Geegeez 14) and is red hot in the last two week. 10/31,17p or so. Trainer/jockey also do very well in handicaps together. He’s seemingly on an upward trajectory again having moved into the care of Ian Williams, having recorded a decent win at Epsom and then again at Newmarket, where he may have won despite the ground. I can only assume the run the last day after a break was to set him up for this. He was drawn wide, held up and never really put into the race. This must have been the plan. He has wins in deep ground from his days in France so i’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. It is a question for him and it could be he just out-classed opposition back then. We shall see. RK usually likes to race them prominently and I hope they ditch their usual hold up tactics. There is enough pace to track around him and if he can race him just off it, his extra stamina could help come the end, as he powers through. Here’s hoping anyway. I thought he looked one of the more interesting ones in here.

And that’s the lot. Clearly I may not have mentioned any of the winners, gulp. I could do with having a good day again on, so fingers crossed.

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

3.50 Ayr – Muntadab 12/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Ayr

Hmm…well my Bronze Cup efforts were poor. I didn’t predict it would go heavy as such but anyone with Geegeez Gold, using Instant Expert, would have seen only three horses in the race with proven winning handicap form on heavy. That included the 1st and 3rd! Sometimes simple is best. An unexposed horse won, and I was nowhere near him, which always frustrates me. His best performance had come when hacking up last September in heavy at Carlisle. He’d been running well all season and on reflection that York run was clearly a prep, given the rest pattern. In such a tight handicap the 7lb claim proved invaluable and he relished the ground. I went with some hardier sorts in big handicaps, but he stepped forward in some fashion, and was backed from 28s>12s to do so. Looking back at some stats…well Fahey was 2/28, 5p places in the race. On closer inspection,post race, those that he ran at York LTO were 2/9,3p, that’s now 3/10,4p. Damn. In any case, it appears that high is the place to be.

Thoughts as of last night, as per tips i’ve pondered further this morning! 

To Saturday…I’m a bit tentative on The Gold Cup, because so many are proven in the ground on first glance but if i look to the Silver Cup (2.40)… and keep it simple… looking at those with proven winning handicap form on soft through to heavy, drawn middle to high… leaves…

Quick Look (stall 12) 8/1-11/1… may go off short enough here, but in flying form, the ground shouldn’t be a problem, races prominently and an excellent 7lb claimer on top. He won’t be far away.

Hyperfocus (21) 20/1-22/1… drawn in the right place and his winning form has been when making all. He has wins in ‘Haydock Heavy’ so the ground won’t be an excuse…in fact his best form is on heavy. He was poor the last day but was free when racing on the wing. They put a visor on here and trainer/jockey have a decent enough record. I fear he may over-race in the headgear, and may not be in form, but he ticks plenty of boxes and is unexposed. His best form last season came from Sept onwards.

Wahoo (24) 25/1-28/1…I can’t remember if I tipped this one LTO but on reflection that looks to have been a prep for this, given the rest pattern. He has winning form on soft and two starts ago beat the Bronze Cup 2nd, on ground that wasn’t as fast as advertised. He likes to make all/race up there. Dods is 2/18,6p in the race, a further three have been 5th or 6th. He looks sure to run a big race on paper/to my eyes (poor sod)

Others…well Powerallied ticks those boxes but doesn’t look like he stays 6f to my eyes fully/or there will be stronger stayers/classier sorts. And i should mention Dakota Gold given those Dods stats, his draw and his prominent style. He’s won on GS and placed on soft, so a ground niggle, which may make 10s seem short enough.

Price wise then, i’m sure you can see where i’m heading! I’m a bit bloodied and bruised at the moment in these sprint handicaps, but Wahoo and Hyperfocus look most interesting at the prices, with Quick Look in with a big shout. I’ll ponder whether to get off the fence and tip the two biggies, I probably will, with the expectation that something with no soft+ ground winning form will sluice in, drawn low! 🙂

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

  1. Snazzy Jazzy and Hyperfocus for me in the Silver Cup.
    Not that I’m any judge of a race but Snazzy Jazzy won a big prize in a big field on soft/heavy at the Curragh last October by 3 lengths carrying top weight as a 2yo.
    25 winners from 188 runs have come from that which may mean the race was ok or not! Hasn’t run on any sort of soft ground in the 4 runs since and could be unexposed, fresh or not good enough. Trainer is in form and has a high draw.
    Anyway I’ve convinced myself he’s worth a stab at 16’s even if he’s only a 3yo.
    All my other scratching around with various trends kept on putting Hyperfocus in the shortlists so he’s the other.

  2. Nothing from Newcastle for me tonight although a nice 9/1 winner from Kev. Well done. You can take over at Newcastle if you like 🙂 I’ve always found it a tough nut to crack.

    My qualifiers for Chelmsford and Wolves on Saturday are as follows:

    Chelmsford
    1.40 Fintas 9/1
    2.15 War Glory 8/1
    3.25 Lord Riddiford 8/1

    Wolves
    5.45 Time Medicean 6/1
    6.15 Darwin’s 4/1

    All 1pt win.

    Good Luck

  3. Hyperfocus Ayr Saturday 14:40 1pt e/w
    Aces Ayr Saturday 15:50 1pt e/w

    That’s likely all from Ayr and Catterick (although I will have a 2nd look in the morning). I will look at the rest tomorrow but its getting late.

  4. im on 3 in the 3.50 at ayr please don’t take these as tips….just think they could run well at current prices..given the class and the going draw etc..g force…baron bolt…Ice age…

    1. I can see the angle re Ice Age but it looks very hard today and so it will likely be my lightest Saturday betting day for some time. I dont like the favourite in the Gold Cup at the price. I know it is considered a bit unexposed and likes the ground but it is well short for a horse that has not done much winning. If you twisted my arm I would go Muntadab and Ice Age, but win only as it is a cavalry charge and anything could happen.

      Good luck.

    2. Nice shout re Baron Bolt Claire, read your post after the event sadly but did follow Josh on snazzy jazzy so not all bad! Well done.

    3. yes well done Claire, great shout that. I looked at him, but something put me off. Not quite sure what it was. He was 50.00 on the machine at one point! 🙂 A nice return even after dead heat. Well done.

  5. Good to get the monkey off my back with a winner, drifted to 9/1 so +6 on the day Running total +3

    325 Ch Marnie James 9/2, Eeh Bah Gum 9/2 & Mountain Peak 13/2
    545 Wo Furni Factors 5/1
    645 Wo Acrux 3/1 & Super Florence 6/1

  6. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    A 2.40 – Wahoo on 1st run @ 25
    A 2.40 – Al Qahwa on 4th run @ 8
    A 3.50 – Muntadab on 3rd run @ 12
    C 3.00 – Sellingallthetime on 8th run @ 8
    C 5.50 – Admiral Rooke on 7th run @ 6
    Nm 4.30 – Biotic on 1st run @ 4
    Nm 4.30 – Know Your Limit on 2nd run @ 13/2
    Nm 4.30 – Brother McGonagall on 3rd run @ 11/2
    W 8.45 – Brockey Rise on 4th run @ 10
    Festival
    A 3.50 – Terentum Star on 1st run @ 16
    A 3.50 – Kimberella on 2nd run @ 33
    A 3.50 – Justanotherbottle on 4th run @ 28
    A 3.50 – Growl on 4th run @ 9
    A 5.30 – Never Surrender on 2nd run @ 7
    G 2.35 – Hence on 8th run @ 13/2
    G 5.25 – Davids Charm on 2nd run @ 9/2
    Nb 1.45 – Original Choice on 1st run @ 12
    GL
    Mike

    1. Thanks for posting: Based on original % winners in relation to runs here are the value bets in relation to odds available for both Daily and Festival wins:

      Daily Tips: Festival Tips:
      Runs Percentage Odds Runs Percentage Odds.
      1 12.2 15/2 1 9.2% 10/1
      2 11.0 8/1 2 21.00 7/2
      3 10.3 9/1 3 4.00 25/1
      4 16.7 5/1 4 12.5 7/1
      5 38.2 13/8 5 zero wins any odds?
      6 23.8 10/3 6 66.7 1/2
      7 15.4 11/2
      8 30.8 9/4

      Value does not equate with the chance of winning but hopefully this will help in deciding what to bet on. For example Muntadab in 3.35 at Ayr if at 12/1 represents value as the price should be around 9/1 given the 3rd run ratio on the Daily tips is around 10.3%…others to note are Sellingallthetime at C in 3.00 @ 8/1 (should be around 9/4) and Admiral Rooke C 5.50 @ 6/1(should be around 11/2)……hope the table above is useful…Gd lck

  7. Heavy ground at Ayr can be a real leveller and past form in the conditions is often a quick way in as Josh reported after yesterday’s racing.

    With that in mind, I’ve had a couple of small E/W bets on Maarek (2.40 Ayr) and Wax And Wane in the 5.30. With up to 6 places on offer in the 2.40, it’s worth a dabble.

  8. I agree with two of your picks, Josh, but think you are wrong not having a full point on Wahoo in view of your reasoning. Ironically, as I typed that, I realised I might be doing the same and went back and upped my stake!

    1. Well if my other three bomb out, I hope i’m wrong haha. Maybe i’ll regret not doing the full 1 point, and will be kicking myself, as per the Festival. Something niggled at me, in terms of the strength of his form etc but maybe I should have gone with my first instinct. At least it could have been worse if he does win, ‘only’ missing out on +12.5 points or so. Gulp.

  9. COLINS BETS

    Chelmsford
    2.15 Zap BOG 8/1
    4.00 La Fortuna BOG 13/8
    Ayr
    2.40 Al Qahwa BOG 7/1
    3.50 Son Of Rest BOG 7/1
    Catterick
    4.10 Star Of The East BOG 11/4
    Wolverhampton
    5.10 Essaka BOG 5/2

  10. Supreme Power Catterick 17:20 1pt e/w
    Aces Ayr 15:50 1pt e/w
    Original Choice Newbury 13:45 1pt e/w
    Hyperfocus Ayr 14:40 1pt e/w

      1. Yankee time indeed! I’ve got so many multi-way yankee’s and trebles going on this afternoon I’m scared to watch the racing…the biggest one has 40 combinations…gulp

  11. Improvement was seen yesterday from the selections but not enough to get the win, I will track him.

    Chris Selections:
    Ayr:
    14:00 – Waarif (11/1 gen)
    15:50 – Growl (9/1 gen)
    15:50 – Get Knotted (18/1 gen)
    15:50 – Summerghand (33/1 gen)

    Catterick:
    17:20 – Meshardal (12/1 gen)

    Wolver:
    17:10 – Red Stripes (4/1 gen)

    Chelmsford:
    14:15 – Poets Society (16/1 gen)

    3 pokes in the Gold Cup at Ayr, I will back them straight win but with up to 6 places on offer 0.5pt EW could be good as well. Good luck with your bets today.

  12. I had that feeling with Snazzy Jazzy and it pretty much scooted in …. it just jumped out at me! well done for tipping it up Josh! knew it couldn’t lose once you put him up!!!

    1. well done Chris. Yep I attacked the race cold again this morning and with the profile of yesterday’s winning in my head a bit, and he did jump out on that Curragh run, esp given his draw /age / open to progress / ran into form LTO. Thankfully all came together, will take the +13.5 on the race, much needed. The other three may still be running, but who cares!
      GL with the multiples.
      Josh

    1. cheers Jim, thankfully that horse seems to love it around there! A keen sort, I think he just likes hurtling down into that straight/to the line. Didn’t expect him to lead like that but was over with half the race left! Anyway, will take that. Been a little while since we had a good day but will take the +20 points or so. I think the members profit pile is the biggest that’s been at any point this year.

    1. No bother. Hopefully a good final quarter to the year, following a quiet middle stint! But in any case, the profit piles ticking along just fine. Fingers crossed more to come!
      Enjoy the break.

  13. Two lovely winners Josh, thank you v v much.

    Must admit I had a close look at Snazzy before I backed it because had completely passed it over in my assessment. What do I know eh? Cheers!

    1. Ha, well I did last night but at the end of a long day it’s usually best for me to have a fresh look back in the morning. That heavy ground Curragh win over 6.5f did stick in the mind. Drawn high. Did think he’d race more prominent but a bit taken off his feat early. Anyway, nice to land on one of the winners from the three races. Something to work on.

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