Members Daily Post: 19/09/18 (Tipx1/complete)

Tip x1, Section 1 (comp), test zone, results update

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Sandown

4.55 – Collegiate (micro age) (hncp debut) 3/1 UP

5.25 – Fanfair (m class move) 16/1 3rd 10/1

 

Beverley

3.25 –

Mutadaffeq (m TJC) ES+ I3 12/1 S3A UP

Sunglider (m 90 days) 16/1 UP

4.30 – Musharrif (m class/age) w1 G3 I3 5/1 2nd 

 

Yarmouth

2.00 – The Lacemaker (m class move) 14,30 9/2 UP

2.30 Desert Land (2YO) 14 30 20/1 UP (v. good run, worth watching next few starts) 

 

JUMPS

Kelso 

5.15 –

Mitcd (hncp hurdle) w2 H3 I3 G3 11/2 S4 UP

Sleep In First (all hncps/hncp hurdle) ES H1 I3 7/1 S3 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) UP

Make It Happen (m TJC) I3 14/1 S2 S5 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 26/259,88p, +24.9) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +149.5)

Daily Tips

5.15 Kelso – Rory’s Valentine – 1 point win – 8/1 (betfS/PP) 7/1 (gen) (09.28)   NR 

 

I thought this LTO winner looked the most interesting in here and one of the few open to further progress. Her last win was arguable her first run in such conditions- 20f on decent ground and 18f around Kelso should be fine. That was also her first run after a wind op and it was her first run in 123 days. Her profile gives the impression that connections (both new and old) think she must be best fresh, so I wont be using fitness as an excuse. If you have a jumps horse that’s best fresh and who needs decent ground, you’re not going to be able to fire many bullets through the course of the year, so i’d like to think this one will arrive at the top of her game. She could well be the best jumps horse in the yard I suspect. She also beat the right horse LTO which makes me think it wasn’t a fluke. Hello Fellas was rated 102 and has placed twice since in C4s. The 4th has since won a C4 handicap hurdle off 98. Had she not flattened the last that day she’d have won more easily but still did it cosily enough for me. She may appreciate this track more and has course experience, having run well over 2m6f here in a C4 a few starts ago, before flattening out up the straight. There’s every chance this one could have plenty in hand still and in general faces many more exposed rivals, including the 3 qualifiers in section 1. I’m probably asking for trouble taking them on but there we go. She showed decent tactical speed the last day and will be held up off the pace I suspect, hopefully not too far off it given they know she stays further and they’ve found the key. If she runs her race/builds on LTO, she’d run more like a 7/2 shot in this field for me and as such 7s looked generous enough.

That will be it for today, I personally couldn’t get that enthused by the flat cards having had a flick through.

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

The Doyler

2.30 Yarm – Aquanura 2/1 3rd

3.00 Yarm – Awe 8/1 UP

Top of the Class

2.20 Bev – Donnago 100/1 UP

 

Jumps

D McCain (14/1< guide)

5.45 Kel- Ink Master 7/2

6.15 Kel – Good Tradition 8/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

If you missed it, worth a flick through…

Strategy Results Update : Summary 27th Aug-16th Sept

FLAT

S1 – 1/8,3p = -3

S2 – 3/31,10p = -14.25

S3A –  2/25,7p = -15.75

S3A# – 2/9,6p = +0.25

S4 – 7/24, 12p, +12

S5 – 4/13,6p = +6.25

S6 – 1/15,5p = -6.5

w1 – 1/20,5p, -11

w2 – 2/9,2p, +7

Test Zone: 6/33,8p = -3.75

JUMPS

S1 – 1/9,2p = +25 +44.5 BFSP

S2 – 1/33,8p = +1  +20.5 BFSP

S2A

-1 point win : 1/12,3p = +22  +41.5

-1 point EW : 1/12,3p = +31.25

-1/2 point EW : 1/12,3p = +15.625

S3 – 1/2,1p, +3.5

S3A – 3/10,3p = +15

S3A# – 2/2, 2p = +9.5

S4 – 1/5,1p = -1.25

S5 – 0/7,1p = -7

w1 – 5/11,6p, +11

w2 – 2/6,3p +1

Test Zone: 4/27,9p, +2.5

 

UPDATE

I’ve updated the ‘where to begin’ document in the Key, can also read HERE>>>Jumps S1 has been added and results updated.

 

Looking ahead to the Jumps

If some of the jumps results over recent months are repeated during the main winter season we should have some fun. There appear to be 6 or so ‘strategies’ that are worth plenty of attention –  S1, S2A , S3A, S3A# , w1, w2 

S1

Results 2017 : 132 bets / 17 wins / 13% sr / +91 early|bog / +118 BFSP / 69 % ROI

Results 2018 up to 16th Sept : 5/66, 19p, +21, +48.5 BFSP

S2A

2018-

  • Win only (1 point win): 8/136,27p, +38, +83 (BFSP)
  • Each Way (1/2 point EW): 8/136,27p, +39.475
  • Each Way (1pt EW): 8/136,27p, +78.95

S3A

Results 2018 : 33/153,48p, +35.41

S3A# 

Jumps since Sept 1st 2017 – 16th Sept 2018: 30/97, 44p, +45.91

(a more focused alternative to S3A/fewer bets/greater ROI. Logically, given the use of ratings pointers, it may be more reliable moving forwards also) 

w1

12th Feb – 16th Sept 2018 : 36/113,43p, +51.25

w2

12th Feb – 16th Sept 2018: 17/86, 30p, +30.6 

Total w1 +w2 : 199 bets / 53 wins / 73 win|place / 27% win SR / +81.85 

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Personally, the collection of jumps strategies/angles above, from a systematic perspective, loos to be the place to focus this coming season. S1/S2A/S3A (or S3A#)/w1 + w2 are on +175 points or so for 2018 to morning prices, +250 or if backing S1 + S2 to BFSP. 

I think i’ll be dumping S3 for the new stats guide, and S4 + S5 haven’t really been cutting it over sticks. 

I’ll be renewing the stats guide which of course always brings with it some dangers, given the results above are based on the current version, but I take the same approach to researching it every year so fingers crossed they all keep ticking along. 

Clearly some of those have a lower win SR than others, and all will have chopping losing runs. As always you need adequate banks and to start small, building up as time goes on/banks double etc. If backing 4/5 of those as a portfolio I’d probably have a 200 point bank to be safe, if not 250, but that’s being cautious I think. But, if a few of those had their worst runs at the same time, it would be testing for a while. 

Anyway, as always that information is presented for you to absorb and use/ignore as you please. 

Josh 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. One winner at 3/1 SP from five qualifiers on Tuesday. Fairly poor. Before posting Wednesday’s qualifiers just wanted to reiterate that these are not “tips” unless stated, rather they are (to use Josh’s phrase) ways in to look further at the race. Obviously form, price and level of competition all dictate whether a bet is viable (teaching Granny, I know…)

    There are lots tomorrow. The win/place percentages are all from 12 months unless stated.

    14.30 Yarmouth – Rayig (41/83) 10/1, Desert Land (41/58) 12/1, Victory Day (46/59) 9/2

    15.00 Yarmouth- Lehoogg (41/83) 4/1, Snow Storm (50/61) 6/1

    15.35 Yarmouth – Sheikha Reika (41/83) 10/1

    16.40 Yarmouth – Courtside (41/58) 7/4

    17.40 Yarmouth – Lady Dancelot (41/50) 5/2

    16.10 Kelso – Falak (50/62; 66/83 last 30 days) 5/2

    17.45 Kelso – Cubomania (ditto) 5/2

    18.15 Kelso – De Plotting Shed (ditto) 5/1, Alfie’s Choice (46/53) 10/3

    18.45 Kelso – Miss Aloud (ditto) 7/2

    15.25 Beverley – Weather Front (53/80) 5/1

    16.20 Sandown – Whitlock (41/66 last 30 days) 11/2

    Phew! Scope for some fun Lucky 15s and Trixies as some of the shorter priced ones have live chances. Just need to winkle them out, no problem!!

    Good luck.

    1. Bit harsh on yourself Mark, a Win at 11/4, 2nd 13/2 & 3rd 12/1 from 5 picks, still a profit of 3 points on a ‘fairly poor’ day!

      1. True (thank you) but as I don’t suggest wins versus EW I think it’s a bit cheeky to claim credit for seconds and thirds, albeit I did back those myself each-way.

    2. Hello Mark,

      Thank you for providing these stats, they are proving helpful and won me a few bob the other day.

      I don’t want to seem ungrateful but I notice that you have provided two different one year stats here. The Mclintock/Gormley stat is trainer/jockey, while the Varian/Atzeni stat is trainer/jockey/course. Would it be possible to say in future if the stat is course related or not please? Would save me having to look them all up.

      Thank you again.

  2. Thanks for the kind words guys. Let hope we can keep the run going tomorrow:

    Misty Spirit Sandown Wednesday 13:40 1pt e/w Price available 16/1
    Scottish Jig Yarmouth Wednesday 15:35 1pt e/w Price available 11/1
    Enigmatic Yarmouth Wednesday 16:05 1pt e/w Price available 15/2

  3. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    B 4.30 – Bondi Beach Boy on 2nd run @ 11
    B 4.30 – Foxtrot Knight on 3rd, 4th and 10th run @ 33
    S 4.20 – Monoxide on 2nd and 3rd run @ 15/2
    Festival
    S 3.15 – Zhui Feng on 1st run @ 14
    Y 5.10 – Line of Reason on 3rd run @ 11/2
    GL

    Sorry chaps, My tracker didn’t send email and I’ve had to go through the cards to find them.

      1. Cheers Colin, It’s not the first time an email’s failed but i was in Bradford last night for beer/PSG humbling and curry so didn’t know no email til this morning. There are a couple of other issues with the tracker but can’t find another that’s unlimited. I use GG’s.

      1. the number of times they’ve run since I tipped them in Section 2 (or free post), without winning. Mike stops at a winner. backing my losing tips on their next start has won 300+ or so points since last Sept, as an example, but generally appear to be profitable to back for a few runs, before stopping, albeit very choppy if doing that systematically.
        He’s been posting like that for over 2 months I think, with a few results updates along the way! 🙂

        1. to follow on from Josh. As he’s tipped it on 3 separate occasions I personally back it 3 times and the stats will reflect that, BUT I have been backing for a few months now and have more than tripled my starting bank so in effect my stake is now 3pts. I assume with FK that each ‘tip’ is worth 3, 2 and 1pt as that’s probably how much I had on originally, so I’ve bet 6pts of my original bank. If recently starting to back I would only use the most recent ‘run’ as my bet.
          Mike

          1. Thanks Mike. I got the bit that Josh explained. I didn’t realise he’d tipped some of them multiple times. All clear now. Cheers

          2. Oh apologies Ken, I’ve got wrong end of stick there with your question! Read it as if you were unaware of what Mike was tracking generally etc. Yep some of them i’ve tipped a few times, many still running! 🙂

  4. Chris M Selections:
    Kelso:
    17:15 – Mitcd (6/1 in places, 11/2 gen)
    17:15 – Sleep In First (7/1 gen)
    17:45 – Ifandbutwhynot (7/2 gen)

    Good luck today 🙂

  5. Sandown 5:25 – shufoog 10/1. Down in grade and distance and last win on flat was over this trip. Lower mark than last win and jockey/trainer are 19/5 in hcps. Trainer seems confident too on LTA site.

    Chris R

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