Members Daily Post: 18/09/18 (complete)

Tips x2, Section 1 (comp) , test zone, results update /jumps strategy discussion…

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Yarmouth

4.50 – 

Equimou (m age) I1 9/2  UP

Arzaak (m class move) 14,30 9/1 2nd 

 

Redcar

3.40 – Zorawar (m TJC/class/age) ES+ 12/1 S3A UP

4.10 – Mon Beau Visage (m TJC) 11/2 2nd 

5.10 – Clenymistra (m TJC/age) w2 ES+ H1 I3 7/2 S2 S3A# UP

5.40 – Barney George (all hncps + m age) G1 11/1 S6 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 26/257,88p, +26.9) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +149.5)

 

Daily Tips

3.40 Red – Jessie Allan – 1 point win – 25/1 (Lad/WH) 22/1 (gen) UP

5.45 Galway – Secret Wizard – 1 point win – 9/1 (Sky/BV) 8/1 (gen) UP

that will be all for tips, 09.27, write ups …

 

Jessie Allan… I thought 22s was a quite ridiculous price for the only course winner in the field. Even if she tails off, there’s no way she should be anywhere near this big to my eyes. Firstly she drops back in class here and back to her optimum distance. She ran well at Musselburgh to a point, and between the 2 and the 1f pole was motoring as if a horse still in form. This one took an age to get off the mark…41 runs or so! Credit to connections for keeping going. Wiley old Jim appears to have found the key as since she got her head in front over CD in May she’s been very consistent. Well in 6f handicaps, including that win, she’s 1, 1, UP, UP, 1, 3. One of those UP was possibly after a longer than ideal break or the race just didn’t set up for her that day. The other was at Hamilton. Given her new zest for life at Redcar and Ayr, there’s every chance she enjoys a flat track. Her wins/placed efforts don’t seem to be a fluke either. Yes the Redcar race was poor but the Ayr runs are decent form for the grade. Her 2nd win in that sequence above has produced 5 further winners including the 2nd, Nuns Walk, who’s since won x3 and now rated 80. The 4th there Eternalist has since won twice also. Her last win in July – the 3rd, 4th , 5th have all won since. And her most recent effort over 6f, that 3rd two starts back, was decent. Yes she was beaten 3l but the two in front of her have since won again, one now rated a career high 85, the other back up to 82 after a C2 win at Chester. IF Jessie Allan runs to the level of that 3rd or those two wins, she’d go very very close to winning this race. All of a sudden she’s become fairly consistent. Clearly she now be niggled after 1f and tail off 🙂 There’s a slight concern there isn’t loads of pace here but in fairness her wins have been in 7 runner races or so and she’s won them with a devastating turn of foot (for the grade) in the final furlong. So, I won’t use that as an excuse. They should go a reasonable pace here and she has Spirit of Wed her side to take her into it hopefully. In any case, this price was just silly, arguably twice as big as it should be on what she’s achieved since that maiden win over CD here. She’s been dropped a couple of lbs also which may help.

Secret Wizard… I’m hoping this top-weight may simply out-class these here, dropping in class from his last run. He’s 2/2 in turf handicaps with soft in the description and he’s a course winner over 7f – at this meeting two years back. He’s been dropped 4lb for that last effort which I thought was generous, given he ran well on ground too fast and a tip too far, beaten by a couple of progressive 3 year olds. There’s every chance connections have had this race in mind and will be delighted that he’s been dropped just enough to get in!! I wonder if Ms Lavery was on the phone to the handicapper after that last run. On what these have achieved on paper to date, he is the one to beat in this and he seems to do well when at the top of the handicap… he’s 3/7 when carrying 9-8 or more. The draw is a niggle but there are no out and out front runners in this and he can make all, but certainly likes to push the pace. With any luck he can get out and get a handy position. The draw stats around here on soft suggest you don’t want to be low. I suspect it may get cut up plenty on the rail or unless you front run you always have a wall of horses in front of you, needing plenty of luck. Certainly over jumps swooping around the outside is no bad thing here when the ground is soft. He’s the only course winner in the race also, which may count for something, although a few have placed. IF he runs up to his mark/his best, he’s the one they’ll have to beat and with any luck he has too much class for them. I’d be delighted if he could build on his trainers 5/15,p stats in flat handicaps here, in this class band. Of the rest.. i have had a saver on TRY AGAIN at 8s who is the other one well suited to conditions but I didn’t think had quite the level of class of this one. But, under the excellent Ben Coen and his 7lb claim, he could run well…he’s drawn low so you’d expect he may go forward. I did wonder if he’d be quick enough over this trip to hold an early position. Something else may step forward of course, esp if they’ve been hiding their true ability. But, on what they’ve done to date, all but 3 horses in this are 8lb+ inferior to him. If he runs to his best he’s the one to beat, and in these conditions there’s every reason to think he will.

Elsewhere… WIFF WAFF (4.50 Yarm) I stared at him for a good while but in the end his price wasn’t big enough for me – that’s the only thing that’s put me off. I wanted 7s+ i think but hopefully eh proves me wrong and will be another 11/2 winner, like Rolling Maul yesterday who dipped under 6s when I looked and that put me off. It seems to be my psychological price barrier! This one is a hold up horse and doesn’t like to be in front too long, that’s why I wanted bigger. Were he a front runner/pace pusher, this price may be more palatable but it’s fine margins at these price points, and it’s subjective. Trainer/jockey are 3/11,4p in handicaps and it’s interesting that Kingscote is here, on his way down to Sandown tomorrow. He has a good book of rides it seems. Williams is 5/15,9p in C4 handicaps at the track, 2/5,3p with those aged 3. He’s 7/32,14p, +9 with all 3 year olds in handicaps here in the last 5 years. The horse has the ability to win this and drops in class from his last run. He just needs a strong pace to aim at as it helps him settle and he seems to enjoy running through horses. I think he will get a strong pace here. Kingscote has been booked and it could be the horse has just got better with age/experience, and they’ll now race him up there. Anyway, I was on the fence a bit as you can probably tell, but given his running style, and the fact he does have to prove himself up to C4, I was just put off. Plenty in here are out of form and he did look the most interesting to my eyes. Do with that as you please.

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Urgh, clanger alert… Cockley Beck hosed up in the final race at Hexham and is the sort I really should have been closer to finding. A slap on the wrist there, and a ‘must do better’ note home. The ‘way in’…well it was a poor race on paper. A general sea of red with Geegeez Instant Expert, the one with some form wasn’t getting any younger. That’s usually a good sign to look for something unexposed. This one was dropping in class also which was easy to spot, as was the report angles indicator, a quick click on that showing that Richards was 13/44,20p, +17 all runners here the last 5 years. (5/13 in C5 handicaps).  Those are all reasons why I should have looked deeper into this one’s profile. She had won her bumper…so we knew she had some ability at least and knew how to win. She stepped up to 24f at Perth and ran well. She then ran in a decent enough C4 at Aintree, leading for most of the way before running out of gas in the final 150 meters. That was over 25f and one of the horses in front has since won twice. They then gave her a wind op, and she returned after over 2 months off at Worcester, in the C4 that Really Super won, over an inadequate trip. She stepped back up in trip here, and dropped into a shocker of a C5, with many of the opposition with questions to answer over recent form. Ryan Day took over which also meant she was 5lb lower than recent starts. And the final piece of the jigsaw..if there was one horse likely to make all in the race, it was her. Which is what she did, and won by half the track. Widely available at 15/2 in the morning. So, enough to think about there. It’s hard to spot them all of course, but that one should have been higher up my thinking. On we go. At least it was a boost for Super’s form, as was the Daly horse running into second behind Rolling Maul (he was meant to do that at Sedgefield when tipped and I missed the 6s this morning by the time I looked at him), although well stuffed but he’s a 120 animal. Every cloud. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

3.40 Red – Fard 22/1 UP

The Doyler

2.30 Ling – Night Secret 7/1 3rd

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Strategy Results Update : Summary 27th Aug-16th Sept

FLAT

S1 – 1/8,3p = -3

S2 – 3/31,10p = -14.25

S3A –  2/25,7p = -15.75

S3A# – 2/9,6p = +0.25

S4 – 7/24, 12p, +12

S5 – 4/13,6p = +6.25

S6 – 1/15,5p = -6.5

w1 – 1/20,5p, -11

w2 – 2/9,2p, +7

Test Zone: 6/33,8p = -3.75

JUMPS

S1 – 1/9,2p = +25 +44.5 BFSP

S2 – 1/33,8p = +1  +20.5 BFSP

S2A

-1 point win : 1/12,3p = +22  +41.5

-1 point EW : 1/12,3p = +31.25

-1/2 point EW : 1/12,3p = +15.625

S3 – 1/2,1p, +3.5

S3A – 3/10,3p = +15

S3A# – 2/2, 2p = +9.5

S4 – 1/5,1p = -1.25

S5 – 0/7,1p = -7

w1 – 5/11,6p, +11

w2 – 2/6,3p +1

Test Zone: 4/27,9p, +2.5

 

UPDATE

I’ve updated the ‘where to begin’ document in the Key, can also read HERE>>>Jumps S1 has been added and results updated.

 

Looking ahead to the Jumps

If some of the jumps results over recent months are repeated during the main winter season we should have some fun. There appear to be 6 or so ‘strategies’ that are worth plenty of attention –  S1, S2A , S3A, S3A# , w1, w2 

S1

Results 2017 : 132 bets / 17 wins / 13% sr / +91 early|bog / +118 BFSP / 69 % ROI

Results 2018 up to 16th Sept : 5/66, 19p, +21, +48.5 BFSP

S2A

2018-

  • Win only (1 point win): 8/136,27p, +38, +83 (BFSP)
  • Each Way (1/2 point EW): 8/136,27p, +39.475
  • Each Way (1pt EW): 8/136,27p, +78.95

S3A

Results 2018 : 33/153,48p, +35.41

S3A# 

Jumps since Sept 1st 2017 – 16th Sept 2018: 30/97, 44p, +45.91

(a more focused alternative to S3A/fewer bets/greater ROI. Logically, given the use of ratings pointers, it may be more reliable moving forwards also) 

w1

12th Feb – 16th Sept 2018 : 36/113,43p, +51.25

w2

12th Feb – 16th Sept 2018: 17/86, 30p, +30.6 

Total w1 +w2 : 199 bets / 53 wins / 73 win|place / 27% win SR / +81.85 

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Personally, the collection of jumps strategies/angles above, from a systematic perspective, loos to be the place to focus this coming season. S1/S2A/S3A (or S3A#)/w1 + w2 are on +175 points or so for 2018 to morning prices, +250 or if backing S1 + S2 to BFSP. 

I think i’ll be dumping S3 for the new stats guide, and S4 + S5 haven’t really been cutting it over sticks. 

I’ll be renewing the stats guide which of course always brings with it some dangers, given the results above are based on the current version, but I take the same approach to researching it every year so fingers crossed they all keep ticking along. 

Clearly some of those have a lower win SR than others, and all will have chopping losing runs. As always you need adequate banks and to start small, building up as time goes on/banks double etc. If backing 4/5 of those as a portfolio I’d probably have a 200 point bank to be safe, if not 250, but that’s being cautious I think. But, if a few of those had their worst runs at the same time, it would be testing for a while. 

Anyway, as always that information is presented for you to absorb and use/ignore as you please. 

Josh 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

24 Responses

  1. U.S. Racing Tips – Monday evening – Thistledown race 8, 10.10 UK, Rock Victor. 6/1 BOG now. 1.5 points each way. If a non runner then no bet.

    Good luck.

  2. You haven’t mentioned the ‘starting points chasers’ in your summary but another winner today gives 11/25 since 9/6 so with W1/2 recent form looks banker material as a core element of this season’s strategies.
    Now, you just have to find a similar way to back the hurdlers for regulars wins 🙂

    1. Ha cheers Chris…
      yep i’m a bit nervous recommending it systematically to say 1 point level stakes, simply because at SP it’s AE in the study period is only 1% above market expectations, hence why it had the ‘starting point’ emphasis. No doubt at morning prices it probably does very well, or as you have done approached with a staking plan of sorts. That’s still in it’s infancy though but of course i’ll be keen to keep tabs on your results and if everything holds over time, I can maybe start highlighting that more formally. I’m also cautious to an extent with any jumps results based on the summer jumping programme. I haven’t looked to see if there’s a difference historically but the winter months will tell us much more.
      Josh

  3. Just the one winner today, Baltic Prince, winning unbacked by me who chose a couple of other Carroll/ Bridgewater runners!

    Tomorrow’s qualifiers are:

    14.30 Lingfield – Night Secret 11/2 (40% win/80% place last 12 months); also a qualifier under Josh’s Doyler angle

    16.50 Yarmouth- Kodiac Express 8/1 (40/50 12 months)

    Then Messrs Simcock and Spencer (54/72 last 30 days) have:

    14.00 Lingfield – Arnecy 5/2

    16.30 Lingfield – Oasis Fantasy 11/4

    19.30 Kempton – Mobham 6/1

    Best of luck.

  4. Tadaawol Redcar Tuesday 15:10 1pt e/w Price available 16/1
    Deadly Accurate Redcar Tuesday 16:10 1pt e/w Price available 8/1

    1. Was that all your money caused Tadaawol to shorten, Nick? You must’ve won a few bob!

      Thank you so much yet again, quality advice.

  5. No joy at Kempton tonight, -5pts.
    Lingfield end Kempton on Tuesday. Qualifiers below.

    Lingfield
    4.30 King’s Proctor 8/1
    5.00 The Secrets Out 20/1 (EW)

    Kempton
    5.30 Meerpat 12/1
    8.30 General Zoff 9/2 & Duration 4/1

    1pt win except where noted EW.

    Good Luck

  6. Yarmouth 3-20. Tyrsal 11-1, probably last chance saloon for this one hasn’t won in over a year but has had a couple of 2nd’s at Yarmouth recently. was rated at 65 at one point last won off 56 now down to 53 and has a 3lb claimer on board. £2-50 ew .

  7. Rainbow Spirit Lingfield 14:00 1pt e/w-I had this one picked out last night but I think you’re a bit of a tw*t if you try and put a massive priced up horse the night before so have been given price goes in no time and barely anyone gets on so have been waiting until this morning. On the form on his last run which has thrown up several winners he shouldn’t be this big although may be a couple of points loaned back.
    Mr Strutter Redcar 15:40 1pt e/w-This one looked the right price last night but has now doubled in price and looks too big. Most of these appear out of form and he is very much in the best form of his life and there isn’t a massive amount of pace on paper so could have his own way up front.

  8. Brilliant work as usual nick …. that was indeed a “tad” easy 🙂

    keep up the good work .. absolutely incredible
    a very in awe brian c
    gl
    bc

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