Members Daily Post: 17/09/18 (complete)

Tip x1, Section 1 (comp) , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Brighton

3.10 – Towelrads Boy (all hncps) I1 33/1 S6 UP

3.40 – 

Social Butterfly (3yo+ hncp, + micro dist) 8/1 UP

Cruel Clever Cat (m class) I3 12/1 WON 14/1 

4.10 – Wiley Post (m dist) 14,30 H1 I1 G3 10/3 S1 S2 S4 3rd 

4.40 – 

Kirkland Forever (all hncps 5 yrs, all) ES+H1 I3 G1 9/2 S1 S2 S3A# S4 WON 9/2>3/1 

Rocksette (m runs) H3 I3 5/1 UP

5.10 – 

Good Luck charm (m class/runs) I3 16/1 NR 

Barrsbrook (m class/runs) G3 7/2 UP

 

JUMPS

Worcester

2.20 – 

Cruising Bye (hncp chase) w1 14,30 H1 I3 G3 11/2 S4   UP

Gnarly (hncp chase + m class) 16/1 S2A UP

4.20 – Rolling Maul (m runs) 14,30 I3 G1 6/1  WON 6/1>11/2 

 

Hexham

2.30 – The Banastoir (hncp c + m class) ES+I3 7/1 S3A  S5 UP

3.00 – Desert Island Dusk (all hncps) ES+I3 8/1 S3A S5  3rd 12/1 

4.00- Tickerty Boo (hncp hurdle) 11/1 S2 UP

4.30 –

Quick Brew (all hncps) ES+H1 I3 6/1 S3A# UP

Spinning Scooter (all hncps) ES+ G3 6/1 S3A S1 UP

Rising Marienbard (hncp chase) H3 G3 9/2 3rd 

5.00 – 

Secret Passenger (hncp h)  50/1 3rd 33/1 

Misfits (m class) ES+ 16/1 S2A S3A  UP

 

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 26/257,88p, +26.9) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +149.5)

Daily Tips

3.00 Hex – Jack Lamb – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP 25p R4, 6/1>11/4 (strange run, don’t think it cost him but looked to slip/lose action as they were on bend heading for home, just as trying to make a move,didn’t really recover from that. Would have to watch it again. Hasn’t affected the win though I don’t think but poss second, certainly a place. Or i’m imaging it, would have to watch again.

That will be all for today, 09.09,  write up…

It’s a rather poor day’s racing today and not much caught my eye but I thought this one was overpriced here and if he stands up i’d be disappointed if I didn’t get a run for my money. This 6 year old is having the 6th handicap hurdle run of his life and it all came together LTO in a 1st time visor, after 79 days off where he won a shade cosily to my eye. That was 18 days ago and with any luck he may come on for it again, and will have learnt plenty from the experience. This ground could ride fast here today and having won on GF LTO, that won’t be an excuse but may pose a question for a few in here, provided they haven’t over-watered. And Sedgefield is similar enough to Hexham.  Jedd O’Keefe is now 9/43,18p with his hurdle runners in the last 5 years, +16 SP, 4/18,9p over middle distances in NH races and 10/43,22p with all LTO winners. He’s only had 4 runners at the track but one of those won. The horse…well he should be open to further progress and this will be a test for him. He does step up in class here but in December last year he had a couple of decent runs to his name at Doncaster, in ‘winter’ class 4s. Those races have worked out well, especially the latter of those where he came to grief 3 out. He was starting to come under pressure there but I think would have been in the top4/5 had he stayed on his feet. That race was won by Huntsman’s Son who would go on to run well in some decent races and is now rated 135. The second would win again and is now rated 130, the third won, now 122, the fourth would go on to win 4 in a row and reach 116. Those are the horse he was in and around and gives some hope that he could be up to a Hexham C4. It’s a step up in class and on ratings he has a bit to find if the fav runs her race, but there should be more to come from him. He’s clearly had issues I think given how lightly raced he is but hopefully they can have a good run with him now, and now that he’s got his head in front. He races on the pace and 8s seemed generous. He should be a few points shorter than that in my view.

Of the rest…well Vivant is clearly a danger and is due to go up further in future and could be thrown in again. But, she shouldn’t have won at Worcester. I was there that day to see Really Super run (and win, hurrah!) and TimeforBen should have won, Tom Scu furious with himself post race. He didn’t kick on when he should have done. She has franked the form since though and Vivant went on to bolt up at Fontwell. I’m not sure what she beat though. She dictated a steady gallop and the fav went backwards after making an error, having loomed up down the back straight. I don’t think that was a great race and this should tell us more. It’s a different sort of track and possibly the fastest ground she’s run on, and a drop back in trip. Clearly I won’t fall off my seat if she wins again but I thought worth taking on with this one. It’s her third run in 19 days also, and however easy a horse looks to have won the race before, it can still take something out of them.  I can’t work out why The Trigger is so short, but maybe we will soon find out. Maybe he’s worked the house down in these blinkers and will build on his 1/17 record over timber. Happy to leave at that price though. Cromwell has a lurker also but enough questions there. To be feared if that one crashes in price. I thought it was between Vivant and the selection, maybe they’ll be 1-2 the whole way round! It could be Jack Lamb isn’t up to the favs level but I wanted to find out, and 8s seemed worth chancing.

GL with any bets.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

J Osborne/1st Headgear

6.00 Kemp – Fanny Grand 11/1 UP

Jumps

D McCain (14/1< guide)

4.00 – Hex – Wazowski 7/2 UP

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.30 Hex – King Muro 3/1 UP

Tom Lacey 

2.50 Worc -Flashing Glance 5/2 UP

*

Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

2.20 Worc – Bermeo 7/2 WON 4/1 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Strategy Results Update : Summary 27th Aug-16th Sept

FLAT

S1 – 1/8,3p = -3

S2 – 3/31,10p = -14.25

S3A –  2/25,7p = -15.75

S3A# – 2/9,6p = +0.25

S4 – 7/24, 12p, +12

S5 – 4/13,6p = +6.25

S6 – 1/15,5p = -6.5

w1 – 1/20,5p, -11

w2 – 2/9,2p, +7

Test Zone: 6/33,8p = -3.75

JUMPS

S1 – 1/9,2p = +25 +44.5 BFSP

S2 – 1/33,8p = +1  +20.5 BFSP

S2A

-1 point win : 1/12,3p = +22  +41.5

-1 point EW : 1/12,3p = +31.25

-1/2 point EW : 1/12,3p = +15.625

S3 – 1/2,1p, +3.5

S3A – 3/10,3p = +15

S3A# – 2/2, 2p = +9.5

S4 – 1/5,1p = -1.25

S5 – 0/7,1p = -7

w1 – 5/11,6p, +11

w2 – 2/6,3p +1

Test Zone: 4/27,9p, +2.5

 

I’ll get updating some of the links and brings those yearly totals up to speed.

*

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

31 Responses

  1. A poor day on Sunday with one winner from four qualifiers mentioned. Tomorrow Tony Carroll must be taking a fleet of horseboxes to Brighton. He has Kirby and Marquand booked for some but our qualifiers are ridden by the excellent Poppy B.

    14.10 – Gracie Stansfield 10/1

    15.10 – Imbucato 5/2

    16.40 – Frantical 4/1

    17.10 – Baltic Prince 7/1

    17.40 – Toni’s a Star 11/2

    Poppy B is 50% win/56% place for Carroll over 12 months, 53/60 in the last 30 days. Statistically we can expect two to win (!) so will leave the final choices to members own opinions.

    Also Tiffin Top in the 20.30 Kempton 4/1, (41/58 30 days)

    Good luck

    1. Adam Kirby is a job jockey for Tony Carroll.
      Tony likes Brighton and Bath for his horses,over the years had some good punts at Doncaster in HC’s Flat or NH,and he also likes Goodwood,so his runners are always worth a look in the Hc’s,remember a few years ago won the Stewards Cup with a 33/1 shot which was fancied by the stable,cannot remember the horses name.
      Tony is a very shrewd trainer a great character who makes owners very welcome to his stables,and is very open,anyone wanting a to own a share in a horse or outright ownership,cannot go far wrong joining his stable.
      I am not on commission.

      1. Kirby/Carrol interesting… they are 13/48,17p, +36 when teaming up on the turf, but that’s mainly from a few years back… 1/16 in the last 2 years, so less of a job jockey on that front now…but, in the meantime, it looks like the AW runners may be worth some focus, 4/17,5p, +20 in the last 2 years with the AW runners, which makes sense given how good he is around those tracks, esp over winter when he must be one/the best AW jockey riding when plenty go overseas for the winter etc.

        1. Cheers Josh for that on Kirby shows how quick things in racing can change,it was 10 years ago when i had a share on one in his stable for 3 years,and like you figures show he was a jockey to watch out for when riding one for Tony then.

    1. The jockey made all the difference there.
      Danny Cook on the winner looked like he wanted it more whereas Nicol looked less able.
      Slim margins & Cook had it.

  2. Putting mine up earlier than normal due to travelling with work tomorrow morning.

    Chris M Selections:
    Brighton:
    17:10 – Baltic Prince (9/2 gen)

    Hexham:
    16:00 – Wazowski (4/1 gen)

    Good luck with your bets. Last weeks results will be posted below.

    1. Re-Cap w/c 3/9/18:
      13 bets – 3 winners
      S/R: 23.08%
      ROI: +38.46%
      P/L: +5 pts

      Overall:
      370 bets – 68 winnners and 8 N/R
      S/R: 18.84%
      ROI: +9.06%
      P/L: +32.81 pts

      June: -10.4 pts
      July: +33.68 pts
      August: -0.97 pts
      Sept: +10.5 (ongoing)

      Plodding along in September, not posting ground breaking results but if it continues I am more than happy with the current trend in ROI. Long may it continue.

  3. Sorry Josh, couldn’t resist!

    Kempton qualifiers:
    5.30 Three C’s 12/1 & Athassel 11&4
    8.30 Rake’s Progress 10/1
    9.00 Downtown Mombasa 4/1 & Kingfast 7/1

    1pt win each

    Good Luck.

  4. Hello, well my flat tip went the way of all of my tips on the level, got in the trap and was winding itself up and got pulled out…such is life!! One i do fancy today, but, is an awkward ride is CRUISING BYE in the 14:20 at Worcester. Bit of an oddball, but if they have got this horse back on the straight and narrow he should bolt in here! 13/2 available back 1pt ew.

  5. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    B 3.10 – Watch Tan on 1st run @ 6
    B 4.40 – Frantical on 1st run @ 9/2
    B 5.10 – Barrsbrook 0n 2nd run @ 7/2
    H 4.30 – Rising Marienbard on 4th run @ 9/2
    W 4.20 – Rolling Maul on 1st run @ 6
    GL

    I’ll post some basic stats for last week later this morning
    Mike

    1. Daily runners = 30
      Winners = 1 @ 11/4, sp 2
      p/l @ bog – 26.25
      p/l @ sp – 27.00
      There were 7 plcs @ 14, 12, 25, 25, 25, 11 and 14

      Festival runners = 24
      Winners = 1 @ 9/2
      p/l @ bog – 18.5
      p/l @ sp – 18.5
      There were 2 plcs @16 and 12

      3m+ runners = 4
      Winners = 0
      p/l @ bog and sp -4
      no plcs

      Should be due a re-adjustment over next few days.

      I’ll do as above on a weekly basis and a full stat at end of each month, so next one 1st Oct.
      Mike

  6. 3.10 Bri : WATCH TAN = only runner there for the trainer (G.Baker) This has been is m.o. the last couple of Brighton meetings 🙂

    gl
    bc

  7. 900 Amy Murphy runs Approaching Menace upped to 12f and the price has halved overnight on BF. The dam brings stamina and Kempton form into the equation so the backing seems based on expected improvement in this 0-60.

    1. Hmm, good spot that Chris. Interesting one. Is a shocker of a race and she’s in form. Horse runs as if will relish this step up. Amy doesn’t bet herself, but a few of the lads in the yard do, and they had a good go at Sankissed when winning at big prices the other week, one of them had 50EW track side when was pushed back out to 25s or so and that was enough to send it back into 14s across the board. They know what they have. And Amy won’t be keeping many in the yard at that basement level for long if they don’t show much, and she’ll want to get that one up the ratings. A definite eye on improving the quality and if that one doesn’t start winning soon probably won’t be in the yard this time next year. Best of luck.

      1. Hugh Taylor had tipped it apparently, I’ve just discovered.
        Passionate Love has also been the subject of a gamble, stable led, it seems.

  8. COLINS BETS

    Worcester
    2.20 Bermeo BOG 3/1
    Brighton
    3.10 Emily Goldfinch BOG 11/2
    4.10 Arcanista BOG 4/1
    5.10 Solveig’s Song BOG 18/1

  9. Just got these prices:
    17.9.18 16:15 Galway Zero Ten 7/2
    17.9.18 16:20 Worcester Miss Mash 3/1
    17.9.18 16:20 Worcester Midnight Sapphire 4/1
    17.9.18 16:30 Hexham News For Pascal 66/1
    17.9.18 17:45 Galway Banjo 13/2
    17.9.18 19:00 Kempton Park Sir Magnum 250/1
    17.9.18 19:30 Kempton Park Reignite 16/1

  10. Boy was today needed,still down on the month,but 3 winners out of 4 confidence will be back,after a long losing run even though have been backing myself for 10 years it always hurts and especially when i know people are following my bets with their hard earned cash.

    Thanks for all your kind words of support over this period it does help.

  11. Lovely return to form, Colin.
    The key is not to doubt yourself and that way you can persevere with methods you know are successful long-term.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.