Members Daily Post: 16/09/18 (complete)

Tips x2 + write up, Section 1 (comp), test zone,

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc


1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers


Ffos Las

3.30 – Maggie Jonks (all 5 yrs, 3yo+) w1 14,30 ES+H1 I3 5/2 S2 S3A#

5.15 – Forsee (m class) w1 14,30 H3 G3 4/1 S5 

5.50 – French Kiss (m class) 14,30 50/1 



2.10 – Gemini (all hncps) H3 I3 G3 3/1 S4 S5 

3.20 – Showmethewayavrilo (3yo+ 5yrs,3yo+, + micro dist) ES+I3 G3 9/1 S3A#

3.55 – Red Miracle (3yo+, + m age/runs) G3 25/1 

5.05 – Windsorlot (4yo+) 14,30 H3 I1  7/2 S2 




H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

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S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 26/254,88p, +29.9) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +149.5)


Daily Tips

5.50 Ffos Las – French Kiss – 1 point win – 66/1 (betfS/PP) 50/1 (bet365/BV/others) 40/1 (gen) (as of 9.46) UP

6.00 Curragh – Lucius Tiberius – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP

that’s it for all tips today, write up…


French Kiss…well we can all dream of this one winning and if somehow he does I think i’ll have to declare him at 28s, given it’s now 10.22 as I type and only 40 mins after posting. It doesn’t take much money to move the price at that end of the market, in a race like this, at this time of day. It may well be all of your 5s/10/20ss and he’ll drift back out again later! There’s only 3k on betfair at the moment and if you’ve had a go there already, that may have caused the shortening! Or we can hope that it’s money from connections. Given the form of the yard and the completely unexposed profile of this horse, in a poor race, I thought he was worth a dabble at a monster price. Carroll is 11/36,16p in the last 14 days and that’s the hottest form I can remember him being in for quite some time. Trainer/jockey are 5/24,11p when teaming up in C6 handicaps on the turf so that’s a positive also, and Carroll is 5/22,6p in C6 handicaps at the track. If you’re going to back a biggie it makes sense to do so when the yard is in form. The horse… well he’s in the ‘could be anything’ category on only the fourth start of his life…and of course that means he ‘could be useless’. But, he drops into an open enough C6 on his second handicap start and it’s his second run after a break. They may have been waiting for ground with cut or giving him time to strengthen. He also steps up 4f in trip at a galloping track which I thought was interesting, especially as he’s related to a bumper winner. Connections clearly feel these middle distances may be the making of him one day. All of that combined was enough for me at this price, as you never know, and Carroll does have the odd biggie drop in. They ran him in a soft ground maiden and this ground could go on the soft side come race time, which could be an inconvenience to others as much as anything.  I’d like him to stay around 28s, and if he comes in further that won’t just be our money. Of the rest… i’d say the Channon horse looks most interesting of the three at the front but any cut would be a question for him. Kirk’s has to prove he likes turf but still time on his side to do so and the Irish raider is more exposed, and this trip may be on the short side…but if this is a slog, then he’d probably be the one to fear. But, I thought they were all worth taking on to some degree. Anyway, clearly not many in this price range fall in but you only need a handful over time. Maybe he’ll be the 5th winner of the year put up at 33s+ (from memory, Irish Nat 33s, Scottish Nat 40s, Albert Bartlett 50s, Bacchus 50s…it’s good to look back sometimes! 🙂 )

Lucius Tiberius… i thought this was a couple of points too big here and I expect he’ll go close. AOB is in great form again and he’s 5/18,9p in handicaps at the track in the last 5 years when Moore is up, 8/34,14p in all C2 handicaps here. This one looked progressive a few starts back when winning twice over today’s trip and he’s only a couple of pounds higher than the last of those. He was then pitched into a G1 at Arlington before returning to an inadequate 8f in the Irish Cambridgeshire. This is more his trip and Ryan gets a go for the first time in a while. He will need some luck and I wouldn’t want shorter than this. He’s usually held up and delivered late, deliberately so I think but maybe he’s getting better with age and they’ll race him closer to the pace. There’s a niggle that this won’t be strongly run but I watched his two wins back and it was his turn of foot that won it. He does have a touch of class. This ground isn’t as fast as then but I can’t use that as an excuse. There should be more progress in him and hopefully he can get back to winning ways. 3 year olds have won 3 of the 4 runnings of this race, AOB with one of those victories. Of the rest… Jessie’s horse has been well backed and looks a big threat, given how progressive he looks.But, this is a step up and he is drawn very wide. They’ll have a choice with how to ride him but hopefully he gets stuck wide! Anyway, I thought this one looked the over-priced one of the main contenders in this. Hopefully he gets some luck and swoops past them late, just on the line I suspect!



3.Micro System Test Zone


J Osborne/1st Headgear 

1.50 FL – Sybil Grand


4.Any general messages/updates etc



Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

28 Responses

  1. Better on Saturday with three winners and a 14/1 2nd. Tomorrow looks like a Poppy Bridgewater trixie:

    14.10 Bath – Altaira 5/2

    15.20 Bath – Red Alert 3/1

    17.05 Bath – Windsorlot 4/1
    All the above from trainer/jockey striking at 50% win/57% place in the last 30 days.

    Also Downdraft in the 18.00 Curragh 8/1 (41/75).

    AOB and Donnacha team up for four at the Curragh, and they are 45/67 last 30 days, as today further work is required to sift through these and I can’t be bothered tonight!!

    Best of luck.

    1. The claimers are to the fore tomorrow with J Watson and S McCullagh having several chances.
      Also worth noting is that Paul George has three runners in weak events at Ffos Las- 150, 220 and 330.

      1. Apologies, first time poster,

        Q, who is Paul George, what’s his background?,

        on another note Trainer Adam West was assistant trainer to Tom Dascomb.


        1. Please never apologise for posting! All questions welcome in these parts…
          I believe he’s the son of Karen George, who retired last year. I assume he took over with what horses they had also, and has probably added to them.
          He’s 5/21,9p, +90 SP in his training career to date, with 4 different horses which is a good sign. One to watch and some sort of case could be made that they’re all worth some attention in weeks ahead. The market hasn’t bothered noticing as yet!

  2. A decent day on the AW with a 20/1 place and a 6/1 winner from four picks to give us 4pts profit.

    Results for w/c 10 September:
    Staked 15pts, Profit +10pts, ROI 66.67% or £167.50 to £5 stakes.
    +33.50 for September so far.

    I’m off to Croatia tomorrow for seven days. As I’m on a good run, my intention is still to post up qualifiers. Might be the morning before they go up depending on time and wi-fi connection. We’ll see how it goes.

      1. Ken, life’s too short to be ‘thinking horse’ while on holiday, if you’re able not to! Sadly not a luxury I have as yet but if I were you I just wouldn’t bother for the week…if you don’t look, and then don’t look back, you won’t know what you’ve missed etc. Best relax, enjoy the sun, food and wine/beer. Put your feet up. The horses will still be running when you return. Enjoy.

  3. Yorkshire-based 5 to 7 f runners in Ireland…

    Al Qahwa
    Marie Of Lyon
    My Amigo

    Havana Grey
    Take Cover

    Main Edition

    Kuwait Station
    Self Assessment
    World Order

    F 2.55 – Wediddodontwe on 1st run @ 22/25
    F 2.55 – Brockey Rise on 4th run @ 10
    C 2.00 – Al Qahwa on 3rd run @ 14
    C 2.00 – Dark Shot on 2nd run @ 20
    C 2.00 – Sors on 4th run @ 50

      1. Was Areen Heart yesterday a previous tip from Josh? Maybe I’ve imagined that, or it could have been from Nick or someone else.

      2. Hi Mick, you are correct. Should be Festival on 1st run, Is in my tracker but not shown up for today? will investigate later
        Neil, Must be one of Nick’s

        1. Polish is also a retired horse and name re-used but old one still in tracker database and I’ve ‘tracked’ the old name.! Hopefully I’ve not missed any others by doing the same thing but I’ll double check.

  5. Not been on for a while, fancy just one of them today. The forgotten , bit like myself.
    Once jumps starts up i will be back, but, small poke today!
    SHOWMETHEWAYAVRILLO 15:20 @bathracecourse. 1pt ew
    Good luck with whatever you back today!

  6. having a sunday selection today

    16.05 ffl contrive ………. backing this trainers maidens in handicaps is a happy past-time of mine 🙂
    16.40 ffl monjeni – trainer (i wiliams )in tippy top form and got the supreme “job” jockey (r winston) on here …. defo upto no good !!!

    will also being do i willliams other 2 runners today in an e/w patent for some sunday interest 🙂

    gl all
    bc 🙂

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