It’s fair to say that since the heady heights of Bacchus (he was 50s though!) these free posts have been woeful on the tipping front, especially when repeating some of my members’ festival tips for you. The dreaded curse! It will be broken at some stage and the jumps will return in earnest soon enough. I don’t really care for losing runs or indeed how many winners I back. I have eyes fixed on long term profit and ROI… my Members Festival/Big Race Tips are +152.5 for the year, an ROI of around 112%. (they did hit a high of +184) I’d like to get it back up and past those heady heights, hopefully starting today… below are my tips/preview for the Portland Handicap. One of the Dods ones may take it but I hope he continues his 0/5,0p record in the race and i’ll always look to bigger priced ones in a race like this… below the tips/preview there are my unique stats/trends discussion which I did use as a guide for this.
These tips were posted last night in the members’ posts but the prices have generally held..well Lancelot is still 25s in places and good to see he’s been nibbled at…let’s crack on..
Abel Handy – 1 point win – 25/1 (lad) 22/1 (gen)
The Daley Express – 1 point win – 40/1 (lad/Coral/BV) 33/1 (gen) (could be a name your price job on Betfair when it gets some liquidity)
Lancelot Du Lac- 1 point win – 33/1 (bet365/PP/betfS/SkyB) 28/1 (gen) (added ‘late’)
Abel Handy... I suppose if you glance through the various stats/shortlist discussion below for this race it may be clear why both of these were high up the list and at the odds I just couldn’t help myself. This horse is the most interesting/intriguing runner in this line up by quite some way. He has a completely different profile to these and it’s not impossible he demolishes this lot from the front. Well, it’s a game for dreamers. This horse makes handicap debut here and is lightly raced. He won a Group 3 last season, is only one of two to have won at that level+ (Blue De Vega the other) and one of only three to have placed at Listed+ level (Lancelot Du Lac the other) James Doyle rode him to that win and jumps back on here for the first time this season. I get the impression that they really liked this one going into this year, given the races they’ve pitched him into. He ran in the G1 Nunthorpe LTO, having been fast enough to toe the Commonwealth Cup field along at Ascot for 3.5f or so. Clearly I don’t think he’s been up to the class of his recent assignments but there’s a chance he hasn’t been in love with rattling fast ground either, given that all is better efforts haven’t had firm in the going. This ground may suit and so could this intermediary trip. This is the easiest race he’s run in all year and while he is only 3, they have won this before and a few have placed in recent years from limited numbers. It could be he just hasn’t trained on but given the odds i’ll take a punt. I think the lead may be his if he wants it, certainly from those middle to high, and he may be hard to catch. This race is lacking loads of pace on paper. Fingers crossed that the headwind of day 1 and 2 doesn’t return, otherwise front running won’t be ideal. Anyway, there was more than enough there to have a dart at the prices, esp given the stats etc below. I pondered going EW but if he is just out of sorts, then he’ll be going backwards at some point!
The Daley Express... this pick has a bit of the Bacchus about him, albeit without a win at this level… he hits plenty of my stats below and is a monster price. I could make some sort of case, so in I go. Ron Harris has run 5 horses in this race since 2012 and two have placed, at 25s and 33s. Given he returned after 98 days LTO, I wonder if this has been a plan. I suspect, like many of his, he kept him away from the fast ground over the summer. He’ll have appreciated the rain on Friday which loosened the ground a bit further. Probert gets back on having ridden him to victory 3 stars back and as i write it’s hard to say he can’t win at this level- he’s yet to prove that he can’t and this is a tight enough handicap. I thought that run at Newbury in a C2 gave some hope, on ground too fast. It wasn’t without hope and he does seem to enjoy a big field. His draw is a concern, on the stats below anyway, but so far this week low has been the place to be on the straight track. There is some pace low and he should get some sort of toe into the race. Of course Abel Handy may be long gone by the time they catch up! 🙂 I thought he looked interesting enough here. He’s only 4 and this is only the 14th turf start of his life. Maybe he just won’t be good enough but I thought i’d roll the dice. There is usually some money from this yard if they expect something and if he get’s backed into around 20s I may get more excited. If he stays around this price, maybe not so much. Given his place on various shortlists below, and the fact he’s 40s, I just had to have a nibble. This race has a strange feel about it and I wouldn’t have attacked it without my stats, I don’t know where you’d start. Maybe the fav will win well, but he’ll need luck in running again, but may not be far away if he gets it. Everything has some sort of question, including recent form, and those that are in form have to defy marks which are higher than for their most recent win.
Lancelot Du Lac… i’ve added one more, having pondered further and looked at the first shortlist of 4 below, looking at the non-GB breds within my initial shortlist of 10…obviously the Kevin Ryan horse will now win at 20s having not tipped him, but he’s been a tad poor the last twice and needs the headgear to perk him up. 33s has lured me in here, on closer inspection, given that in handicaps over 6f on ground no better than Good, he’s 5/11,7p. Plenty of those are on the AW but one of them was a win in last year’s Steward’s Cup off 104. He’s 2lb lower here and i’m sure he won’t have appreciated the GF the last few runs, given he’s now 0/12,1p on it. He’s drawn against the standside rail and he likes to race prominently. He may give my other one some company. Last year in this he was drawn on the wrong side, given how it panned out, and that may be the case again, or it may not. He does have a touch of class compared to this lot and if he returned to the form of that Goodwood win, then he won’t run like a 33s shot. Ivory has been quiet but has had a few places in recent days, inc a decent 2nd at the meeting on Friday.
Right, that will definitely be it for this race, maybe with £5 on Ryans at 20s (Savalas) just in case! Gulp.
I’ll stick to the stats and keep everything crossed. If neither of these three win, whoever does you’ll be able to look back after and make a decent enough case. It’s one of those races.
The Portland Handicap
10/10 NOT GB Bred
- GB Bred: 0/107, 19p
- Others: 10/102, 21p
- (that could just be bad luck given the placed stats, but interesting)
10/10 sent off 20/1 or shorter
- 22/1 + : 0/77,8p
- 14/1< : 8/87, 26p
10/10 had 0-4 runs prev 90 days
- 5+ : 0/65, 6p
10/10 had 1-9 runs prev 365 days (10+ : 0/76,9p)
10/10 had 1-6 runs this season (7+ , 0/98, 14p)
9/10 aged 4 or 5
- 3 : 0/24,4p
- 6+7: 1/57,8p
- 8+ : 0/16,3p
8/10 had 0-7 places in handicps (8/105,20p)
6/10 had 0-6 runs in handicaps (6/34,9p)
5/10 had 1-9 career runs (5/13,5p, +45 BFSP)
- Stalls 1-6: 0/55, 5p
- Horse had run over 1m+ : 0/37, 3p
- Had WON over 7f+ : 0/43, 6p
- Haydock 2/19,6p ; York 2/47,10p
- Ascot: 0/20,4p
- Beverley: 0/15,0p
- D Marnane (2/2)
- 1x: R Varian/D Omeara / C Hills/T D Barron/W Haggas/E Walker/P Darcy / S Williams
- K Ryan: 0/22,6p
Looking at those with 0-4 runs in 90 days and 1-6 runs this season leaves a more manageable 10…
Encrypted / Tis Marvellous / Udontdodou / Golden Apollo / Savalas / Wentworth Falls / Lancelot Du Lac / Abel Handy / El Hombre / The Daily Express
Four of those are NOT GB Bred… Savalas / Lancelot Du Lac / Abel Handy / The Daily Express
All NON GB Bred… Savals / Lancelot Du Lac / Abel Handy / The Daily Express / Open Wide / Orvar / Blue De Vega / Powerallied
It could be that’s just one of those odd stats, which the placed numbers would suggest it may well be, but if it stands up again this year then one of those eight is winning!
The only horse in the race with 1-9 career UK/Irish runs is: Abel Handy
As further pointers…if I look at 1-9 runs in last 365 days / 0-7 places in handicaps / 0-6 runs in handicaps, from that initial ‘long list’ of 10, that would leave three..
Encrypted / Tis Marvellous / Abel Handy
Looking at 5 further stats in total…NOT UK Bred/ 1-9 runs in last 365 days / 0-7 places in handicaps / 0-6 runs in handicaps / 1-9 career starts…
those with 4 or more ticks against those: Tis Marvellous / Abel handy / The Daily Express