Members Daily Post: 15/09/18 (complete)

Fest Tips x5/ Section 1 (comp), test zone, Donny + late addition section 1 Jumps

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc


1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers



2.05 – Always Resolute (micro class move) H3 13/2 UP

3.55 – 

Confessional (3yo+ hncp) H3 I3 15/2 WON 16/1 

Bossipop (3yo+) w1 H1 G1 9/1 S1 S6 UP

Private Matter (m dist) I3 9/1  3rd 

Rene Mathis (m dist) w1 9/1 UP

Handsome Dude (m age) 40/1 UP

Venturous (m age) 12/1 UP

4.30 – 

Vive La Difference (3yo+, + m dist) w2 G1 4/1 UP

Viscount Loftus (m class) w1 11/2 UP

5.05 – Ghayyar (3yo+) I3 14/1 UP



5.55 – 

Highbrow (all hncps 5 yrs, all) 14,30 ES+H3 I1 3/1 S2 S3A# 2nd 

Byron Flyer (all hncps) H1 I3 G3 15/2 S2 S4 S6 WON 15/2>9/2



3.45 – Secretfact (3yo+ 5 yrs, 3yo+, + m dist) ES+ 8/1 S3A UP



5.45 – 

Be Bold (all hncps) ES+H3 I3 G3 12/1 S3A# S4 S5 UP

Muraadef (m class move) 15/2 UP

6.20 – 

Dandy’s Denouement (all hncps) 8/1  UP

Harbour Patrol (all hncps) ES+ 14/1 S3A  UP

6.55 – Jeffrey Harris (m runs) 4/1 WON 8/1 







Irish Bonus Stats

(forgot about these, posted late as of 09.55)

4.05 List – Georges (hncp c) 25/1 S2A 2nd 25/1>12/1 

4.40 List –

Draycott Place (hncp c) 18/1 S2A UP

Presenting Mahler (hncp c) 5/1 WON 9/2 


2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 26/254,88p, +29.9) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +149.5)


Daily Tips

3.45 Bath – Nibras Again– 1 point win – 11/1 (gen) WON 11/1>8/1 

5.45 Muss – Destination Aim – 1 point win – 22/1 (gen) 2nd 22/1>14/1…decent run, well beat but too good for the rest..ah the other old boy won at 33s! Front two only two in race with a course win, didn’t expect him to get easy lead but made sense from draw they had to go forward. Recent turf form also, bar wins in Jersey, but it was a shocking race. Wasn’t impossible to find him given approach to selection and how I viewed the oppo, but had nothing on, improved his 1/49 record in turf handicaps!! 🙂 I’d have taken +7 before the day began.


that’s it for ALL tipping, 09.53, write ups for those two…


Nibras Again.. i started looking at this race when flicking through the bigger prices quals in section one, with eyes on Secretfact (i’ve had a saver on that one but is on a career high turf mark/can be keen…but CD/proven on firm, a bit bonus, and he’s running ok) but in the end fancied this one at the prices. Two starts back he bolted up in a C5 on his first try at 5f. It seemed to be the making of him there and the horse he beat came out and won since. He is up in class here, but is thoroughly unexposed over the trip in what seems a very open race on paper to my eyes – I wouldn’t want to be with the top three/four at the odds personally. That fav stays on over 6f on good and now has 5f on firm to contend with here. I can live in hope that he won’t be quick enough but he’s 3 and unexposed. Anyway…this horse then ran at Sandown in good to soft and i’m going to assume he didn’t like it. It could be he’s just inconsistent but at double figures i’ll chance it that he will relish the underfoot conditions here. A decent claimer has been enlisted and he rides the track well, 4/21,10p here. NA’s trainer is 2/7,6p with his handicappers at the track which would suggest I should get a run for my money. He’s well drawn to get out and get a prominent position and it’s not impossible they try and make all. I thought his price was an over-reaction to that run LTO, and if he came here on the back of that win, he’d prob be a 11/2 shot.

Destination Aim… clearly a poke but any Geegeez/Instant Expert users may see why he interested me. He’s one of not very many in here with winning form over the going and over 7f, which is a specialist trip of sorts. He’s also one of two with a course win to his name and is 4lb below his last win, which was only 4 starts back over CD in a C5, but that was last July. He clearly has his problems but after that win his trainer said he acts like a 5YO at home and they clearly think he’s worth persevering with. The 3rd and 4th runs of the season are usually his best and hopefully he’s needed his two previous runs this season. Jason Hart returns for the first time in a while and he’s ridden him to victory before, back in 2013! He should relish these conditions and while no spring chicken this is a shocker of a race, truly woeful. Everything has some sort of question or five to answer. The market doesn’t matter too much with this one, having won at 25s, 10s, 8s, albeit a drift beyond 25s may be a concern. I just thought that given they return to the CD of his last win, they must have him ready to run the best race of his season to date, and also given the jockey booking. He should be able to get out and track the pace, and then stay on. It could be he’s gone at the game now, but i’ll roll the dice at a big price and keep my fingers crossed.



Festival Tips

1.50 Doncaster 

Abel Handy – 1 point win – 25/1 (lad) 22/1 (gen) UP

The Daley Express – 1 point win – 40/1 (lad/Coral/BV) 33/1 (gen) UP

Lancelot Du Lac- 1 point win – 33/1 (bet365/PP/betfS/SkyB) 28/1 (gen) (added ‘late’) UP


That will be it for ‘festival’ tips on Sat, write ups… 

Abel Handy... I suppose if you glance through the various stats/shortlist discussion below for this race it may be clear why both of these were high up the list and at the odds I just couldn’t help myself. This horse is the most interesting/intriguing runner in this line up by quite some way. He has a completely different profile to these and it’s not impossible he demolishes this lot from the front. Well, it’s a game for dreamers. This horse makes handicap debut here and is lightly raced. He won a Group 3 last season, is only one of two to have won at that level+ (Blue De Vega the other) and one of only three to have placed at Listed+ level (Lancelot Du Lac the other) James Doyle rode him to that win and jumps back on here for the first time this season. I get the impression that they really liked this one going into this year, given the races they’ve pitched him into. He ran in the G1 Nunthorpe LTO, having been fast enough to toe the Commonwealth Cup field along at Ascot for 3.5f or so. Clearly I don’t think he’s been up to the class of his recent assignments but there’s a chance he hasn’t been in love with rattling fast ground either, given that all is better efforts haven’t had firm in the going. This ground may suit and so could this intermediary trip. This is the easiest race he’s run in all year and while he is only 3, they have won this before and a few have placed in recent years from limited numbers. It could be he just hasn’t trained on but given the odds i’ll take a punt. I think the lead may be his if he wants it, certainly from those middle to high, and he may be hard to catch. This race is lacking loads of pace on paper. Fingers crossed that the headwind of day 1 and 2 doesn’t return, otherwise front running won’t be ideal. Anyway, there was more than enough there to have a dart at the prices, esp given the stats etc below. I pondered going EW but if he is just out of sorts, then he’ll be going backwards at some point!

The Daley Express... this pick has a bit of the Bacchus about him, albeit without a win at this level… he hits plenty of my stats below and is a monster price. I could make some sort of case, so in I go. Ron Harris has run 5 horses in this race since 2012 and two have placed, at 25s and 33s. Given he returned after 98 days LTO, I wonder if this has been a plan. I suspect, like many of his, he kept him away from the fast ground over the summer. He’ll have appreciated the rain on Friday which loosened the ground a bit further. Probert gets back on having ridden him to victory 3 stars back and as i write it’s hard to say he can’t win at this level- he’s yet to prove that he can’t and this is a tight enough handicap. I thought that run at Newbury in a C2 gave some hope, on ground too fast. It wasn’t without hope and he does seem to enjoy a big field. His draw is a concern, on the stats below anyway, but so far this week low has been the place to be on the straight track.  There is some pace low and he should get some sort of toe into the race. Of course Abel Handy may be long gone by the time they catch up! 🙂 I thought he looked interesting enough here. He’s only 4 and this is only the 14th turf start of his life. Maybe he just won’t be good enough but I thought i’d roll the dice.  There is usually some money from this yard if they expect something and if he get’s backed into around 20s I may get more excited. If he stays around this price, maybe not so much. Given his place on various shortlists below, and the fact he’s 40s, I just had to have a nibble. This race has a strange feel about it and I wouldn’t have attacked it without my stats, I don’t know where you’d start. Maybe the fav will win well, but he’ll need luck in running again, but may not be far away if he gets it. Everything has some sort of question, including recent form, and those that are in form have to defy marks which are higher than for their most recent win.

Lancelot Du Lac… i’ve added one more, having pondered further and looked at the first shortlist of 4 below, looking at the non-GB breds within my initial shortlist of 10…obviously the Kevin Ryan horse will now win at 20s having not tipped him, but he’s been a tad poor the last twice and needs the headgear to perk him up. 33s has lured me in here, on closer inspection, given that in handicaps over 6f on ground no better than Good, he’s 5/11,7p. Plenty of those are on the AW but one of them was a win in last year’s Steward’s Cup off 104. He’s 2lb lower here and i’m sure he won’t have appreciated the GF the last few runs, given he’s now 0/12,1p on it. He’s drawn against the standside rail and he likes to race prominently. He may give my other one some company. Last year in this he was drawn on the wrong side, given how it panned out, and that may be the case again, or it may not. He does have a touch of class compared to this lot and if he returned to the form of that Goodwood win, then he won’t run like a 33s shot. Ivory has been quiet but has had a few places in recent days, inc a decent 2nd at the meeting on Friday.

Right, that will definitely be it for this race, maybe with £5 on Ryans at 20s just in case! Gulp.

I’ll stick to the stats and keep everything crossed. If neither of these three win, whoever does you’ll be able to look back after and make a decent enough case. It’s one of those races.



3.Micro System Test Zone


R Fell 

4.30 Chest – Tadaawol 25/1 UP


4.Any general messages/updates etc

For now… for the early birds…

The Portland Handicap

10/209, 40p

10/10 NOT GB Bred

  • GB Bred: 0/107, 19p
  • Others: 10/102, 21p
  • (that could just be bad luck given the placed stats, but interesting)

10/10 sent off 20/1 or shorter

  • 22/1 + : 0/77,8p
  • 14/1< : 8/87, 26p

10/10 had 0-4 runs prev 90 days

  • 5+ : 0/65, 6p

10/10 had 1-9 runs prev 365 days (10+ : 0/76,9p)

10/10 had 1-6 runs this season (7+ , 0/98, 14p)

9/10 aged 4 or 5

  • 3 : 0/24,4p
  • 6+7: 1/57,8p
  • 8+ : 0/16,3p

8/10 had 0-7 places in handicps (8/105,20p)

6/10 had 0-6 runs in handicaps (6/34,9p)

5/10 had 1-9 career runs (5/13,5p, +45 BFSP)


  • Stalls 1-6: 0/55, 5p
  • Horse had run over 1m+ : 0/37, 3p
  • Had WON over 7f+ : 0/43, 6p

Track LTO

  • Haydock 2/19,6p ; York 2/47,10p
  • Ascot: 0/20,4p
  • Beverley: 0/15,0p


  • D Marnane (2/2)
  • 1x: R Varian/D Omeara / C Hills/T D Barron/W Haggas/E Walker/P Darcy / S Williams
  • K Ryan: 0/22,6p



Looking at those with 0-4 runs in 90 days and 1-6 runs this season leaves a more manageable 10…

Encrypted / Tis Marvellous / Udontdodou / Golden Apollo / Savalas / Wentworth Falls / Lancelot Du Lac / Abel Handy / El Hombre / The Daily Express 

Four of those are NOT GB Bred… Savalas / Lancelot Du Lac / Abel Handy / The Daily Express

All NON GB Bred… Savals / Lancelot Du Lac / Abel Handy / The Daily Express / Open Wide / Orvar / Blue De Vega / Powerallied

It could be that’s just one of those odd stats, which the placed numbers would suggest it may well be, but if it stands up again this year then one of those eight is winning!

The only horse in the race with 1-9 career UK/Irish runs is:   Abel Handy

As further pointers…if I look at 1-9 runs in last 365 days / 0-7 places in handicaps / 0-6 runs in handicaps, from that initial ‘long list’ of 10, that would leave three..

Encrypted / Tis Marvellous / Abel Handy

Looking at 5 further stats in total…NOT UK Bred/  1-9 runs in last 365 days / 0-7 places in handicaps / 0-6 runs in handicaps / 1-9 career starts…

those with 4 or more ticks against those: Tis Marvellous / Abel handy / The Daily Express 

Do with that lot as you please, some pondering for me to do! Not a race to go mad on but I may not be able to resist 2 pokes having done all that.



Big Meeting Stats ‘Qualifiers’


2.25 – Breton Rock / Tomyris

5.55 – Highbrow / Dubawi Prince

Jockey (AA)

1.50 – Open Wide

2.25 – Tomyris

3.35 – Raymond Tusk

4.10 – Leroy Leroy

4.45 – Ostilio

5.55 – Dubawi Prince


Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

47 Responses

  1. U.S. Racing Tip Friday evening – Gulfstream race 6, 9.30 UK time, Sara’s Day, 9/1 BOG, 1 point each way. If a non runner then no bet.

    The frustration continues with 2nd 12/1 to 8/1 and 2nd 13/2 and
    Logi backed from 11/1 to 7/2 unplaced from 5 bets,pulling my hair out.

    Chris Sengelow
    I am away at the moment,and record my results in a ledger at home,will put them up some time next week for you.

    1. Don’t worry Colin, the breaks even out over time. You are bound to hit periods when the world seems against you.

      Tomorrow is another fresh start.

  3. What a day! After crashing down to earth with 5 losers, here are tomorrow’s qualifiers:

    14.30 Lingfield – Dubai Blue (47% win/58% place last 12 months)

    16.40 Muss. – Rose Tinted Spirit (50/78 12 months)

    15.55 Chester – Madrinho (53/53 last 30 days)

    13.45 Listowel – City Hall (40/60 30 days)

    14.20 Listowel – Triplicate (as above)

    15.25 Chelmsford – Fenaar (53/67 30 days)

    AOB and Donnacha are 41/67 last 30 days and have loads of runners at Leopardstown. Further form analysis would be needed. However, they are 42/57 with their handicappers so Saracen Knight would be of particular interest?

    Best of luck (I need it!)

    1. Fantastic Mark…I’m about 22.5 pts up at the prices I managed to get on at….
      Beautiful mate……
      Wish I’d have mixed them up, greedy I know !

    2. Well done Mark on another good day, a great addition to the comments! Be interesting to see if they work systematically over time but great as starting points nonetheless…which is just what I like! With that said…any chance you can throw up a price when you post the qualifiers..can be top price, price you take, whatever, only as a general guide…when I browse through with my 6/8 /1+ eyes, i can just straight to X, and also helps give a rough guide as to whether any prices been missed/hammered/no point in bothering now etc. No probs if too much hassle.

      1. Cheers Josh. Yes, I don’t back them systematically, but weed out some via further analysis. I only use B365 so am happy to add that price at the time of posting, usually around 8pm the night before if it helps? Annoyingly, Rose Tinted was 20s last night but I stupidly waited till today to back it at 12s!

        Thanks for the winner and second today, happy days!

        1. yep that’s fine, it’s only a rough guide and will help me anyway. I suspect a few of those over time may find themselves into my daily tips! I don’t bet the evening before, value is in the eye of the beholder at the time you look imo, and don’t concern myself if I miss a big evening price – i tend not to look what they were but judge whether still value when i look/on my interpretation. cheers.

          1. Yes, that makes sense. Re daily tips, fill your boots as I don’t have the time, resources or knowledge to analyse the form of the qualifiers as well as you do so would be of great benefit whenever you decide any are worth a further look.

            All the best.

        2. Hi Mark,

          good day for your selections so well done. Just to let you know I managed to back Rose Tinted at 25’s last night. so thank you!

    3. I joined the party yesterday so a slow start.

      Only backed four of yours today but had the winners.

      Rose was specially good for me. I had a lump on at average 23.0 because was also one of my own system selections that I post on another forum.

      Thank you so much, Mark, you won me a few bob today.

  4. I shall add Lancelot du Lac to your bets, Josh, as he looks to have been prepared for this(?) in contrast to his previous run after the Stewards victory. A big price for a horse of his class and ability, I believe, at 33/1.

    1. Yep, i’ve already added him to my bets haha. We must have been thinking a similar thing. When I looked back at stats shortlists etc, he was the other monster on there that looked too big… he doesn’t like good to firm so happy to ignore recent runs and not sure yard been firing. He’ll appreciate Good here, slightly on slow side. Certainly does have class, rarely runs a bad race really when not on fast. Hopefully gets out and my two can dominate high, and then we shall see what those low do.

  5. Good Evening

    Going to the racing in Ireland over the weekend, any tips/information/opinions greatly received.

    Thanks in advnce

    1. What about Happily, 5.25 Leo, at 18/1 against Alpha Centauri, as fillies can go over the top at this time of year?

      Roaring Lion, 6.35 Leo, to outclass the opposition.

      Rostropovich, 4.55 Leo, to win easily enough.

    2. Have fun Jim! We appear to be light on Irish enthusiasm here! I don’t look at the flat over there at all so don’t wish to just throw horses at you for the sake of it.

      Sunday…I’d focus on UK sprinters in the 2pm… think you can back UK raiders blind in Irish sprint handicaps but could be wrong, they farm plenty anyway. About 7 in that to have a look at. Of course I know what happens now!

      Going into the weekend, those trainers ‘in form’ (geegeez 14)

      – AOB
      -M O’Callaghan
      -C Appleby
      -G Lyons
      -J Gosden
      -G Elliot
      -W Mullins
      -A Balding
      -H Palmer
      -P Chapple Hyam

      Focusing just on those may not be a bad start/finishing point. Albeit it’s a big weekend so eyes on Jessie H, Joseph O B and D Weld maybe, albeit not the force of old.

      AOB…you’d suspect he’ll have plenty of winners…his 2nd / 3rd string always worth a look, esp Donnacha / Heffernan rides.

      best of luck

      1. Josh (& Jim, of course!)…

        A bit “niche” but I back all Yorkshire based runners racing over trips of 5 to 7f in Ireland.
        I try to stick to 7/4 and better and tend not to punt on what I expect would be 25/1 shots or bigger.

        Over the last 5 seasons, backing all of them = 32/209 (15.3%) for 60.63pts at SP (+29%) and 133.6pts at BFSP (+63.9%)

        And at SP’s of 7/4 to 22/1 = 32/171 (18.7% SR) for 98.63pts at SP (+57.7%) and 171.6pts at BFSP (+100.4)

        1. So, in tonight’s 7.10…
          Safe Voyage
          Burnt Sugar
          Reckless Endeavour

          focusing on the first four.

          1. Thanks chaps. Had a nightmare so far. Too many faves for My liking. Still it can only get better. GOT Daniel’s flyer at 20/1 ew so fingers crossed.

  6. A loss of 0.5pt for my AW tips on Wed. Chelmsford and 5/7 of Lingfield card on the AW tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    2.50 Chloellie 6/1
    3.25 Gallipoli 20/1 (EW)
    4.35 Makaarim 9/2

    1.55 Scottish Glen 20/1 (EW)
    3.40 Dark Alliance 16/1
    4.15 Rose Berry 6/1

    1pt win except where noted EW.

    Good Luck

  7. Chester 5.05 Save The Bees 12/1
    First of all the jockey booking is important. So I think it’s trying. Wins it’s fare share. I like it because of this years MO. I think it’s trying to win at the courses it hasn’t won at. Quirky trainer/owner not sure. Won at Haydock had never won there. Now trying to win at Chester. Gl

  8. 410D Nominally a C2, but this is a weak race with all the runners rated 85 or below, so C4 types, except for The Trader who is bred to appreciate the new trip of 8f (and further) and takes a drop from listed company. Nap, 9/2.

  9. St Leger: the lightly raced Raymond Tusk has a chance. The yard has gone a similar route to that with Ventura Storm, winning at Hamilton before his very close second in this race – and they have booked Atzeni who has two wins.
    RT was hampered lto ( Hamada should have been disqualified imo) and snatched 2nd after losing all chance of winning. A longer trip and a stronger pace will benefit; they are likely to be racing into a strong head wind, so his enthusiasm and undoubted stamina will be ideal qualities, making 28/1 a sound EW bet.

    1. I like Southern France at 14/1 each way. An improver at the end of the season. Looks value to me if it can take the step up in class.

    C 3.55 – King Robert on 4th run @ 10
    C 3.55 – Ginbar on 2nd run @ 10/3
    M 6.20 – Foxrush Take Time on 2nd and 3rd run @ 25
    M 6.55 – Goninodsethat on 2nd run @ 40
    L 7.10 – Daniels Flyer on 4th run @ 11
    C 2.05 – Always Resolute on 2nd run @ 13/2
    C 2.40 – Mountain Bell on 1st run @ 6
    C 3.55 – King Robert on 5th run @ 10
    D 1.50 – Savalas on 2nd run @ 22
    C 3.25 – Gallipoli on 2nd run @ 12
    L 7.10 – Escobar on 2nd run @ 10

    1. Many thanks for the stats and dedication in making the time to post the qualifiers as the info very handy and saves a great deal of time finding them…I am interested in following the Festival tips stats having their 2nd run as the strike rate is 21% (12 from 57 runs in original stats) and was interested to see Savalas pop up as it is in Josh’s shortlist…other qualifiers Gallipoli and Escobar also of interest so will be interesting if any of the three do well…many thanks again.

  11. Tis Marvellous Doncaster 13:50 1pt e/w Price available 16/1
    Dee Ex Bee Doncaster 15:35 1pt e/w Price available 16/1
    Mr Top Hat Chester 16:30 1pt e/w Price available 9/1
    Instant Attraction Chester 17:05 1pt e/w Price available 10/1

    1. Why the jockey didn’t track across to the inside on instant attraction and make use of the horse’s early pace I will never know. Frustrating loser to my eyes that one!

  12. Chris M Selections:
    14:05 – Always Resolute (13/2 gen)
    14:40 – Hochfield (I got 11/2 but shortened to 9/2 as I looked at other bets, tracked as 9/2 gen)

    17:45 – Eva Docc (13/2 gen)

    Good luck with your bets today 🙂

    1.50 Blue De Vega BOG 12/1
    1.50 Open Wide BOG 14/1
    4.45 Aquarium BOG 5/1
    4.20 Masham Star BOG 9/4
    3.15 Blyton BOG 9/2
    4.30 Redgrave BOG 10/3

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