Members Daily Post: 13/09/18 (complete)

All Tips x5, Section 1 (comp), test zone, tipping results spreadsheets + listowel through the card
All Tips x5, Section 1 (comp), test zone, tipping results spreadsheets + listowel through the card

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Doncaster

4.05 – 

Related (m dist) H3 I3 12/1 UP

Buccaneers Vault (m dist) I3 G3 12/1 UP

Ninjago (m dist) 10/1 3rd 

4.40 –

Another Eclipse (all hncps 5 yrs, all) 14,30 17/2 WON 17/2>11/2 

Banditry (all hncps) H3 I3 G1 3/1 S2 S4 UP

 

Ffos Las

2.15 – Face Like Thunder (all hncps/3yo+) w1 14,30 ES+ H1 I3 G3 3/1 S2 S3A# S4 3rd

 

Hamilton

3.45 – Vallarta (m age) G3 11/1 WON 18/1 

5.55 – 

Flood Defences (all hncps) 16/1 3rd 40/1 

She’s Pukka (all hncps) 7/1 UP

Alabanza (m runs) w2 ES+ H3 I3 G3 5/1 S3A# S4 S5 WON 5/1>7/2 

6.55 – 

Yes You (all hncps) H3 I3 G1 3/1 S2 S4 UP

Nuns Walk (3yo+, + m age) w1 H1 I3 9/4 S2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 25/250,85p, +21.9) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +152.5)

Daily Tips

2.25 Donc – Star Terms – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) 2nd, no complaints, exciting for a time before one of AOBs loomed up the bugger, albeit appears a few followed Mark in below so not all bad news at least, but i’d have preferred the 1-2 the other way! 🙂 Winner did it well in truth. Star was overpriced.

3.25 Ffos Las – Dotty Grand – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) UP, close 4th 7/1, seemingly ran her race also, no excuse there really, ran well enough.

4.40 Donc – Another Eclipse – 1 point win – 8/1 (WH), 15/2 (Bet365/BV) 7/1 (gen) WON 15/2 (declared price 15/2>11/2) 

 

Festival Tips

5.25 Listowel 

Makitorix – 1 point win – 11/1 (gen) UP 6/1… didn’t run any sort of race, not sure if something amiss…

Voix Du Reve – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) 3rd 14/1, exciting, no excuse, the right 2 in front… dictated and kicked turning for home and was on edge of my seat, sadly other two had plenty more. he didn’t seem most genuine under pressure and jock appeared to know his fate jumping last. If on good he may have got away further but not to be, can’t complain with that.

 

That’s it for all tipping, 09.58… write ups…

Star Terms… well i’ve gone for two at Donny that hit some of my stats below and no doubt  AA and Simcock will be winning with others on the card (both have shorter priced ones etc) but at 12s I thought this one was worth a stab. The fav is clearly well thought of but like all in here will need to step forward and if she doesn’t run her race/live up to expectations, then this does become very open. This Sea The Stars fillie has really found her stride the last twice and runs as if this extra 1f will bring about plenty of improvement. She showed a great attitude the last day and at 12s I thought worth a go to find out. Her experience will count for plenty and there have been a few subsequent winners in her races, albeit at a moderate enough level. She has course form and AA will have her in the right spot here. She may not be good enough but there’s only one way to find out and the yard know what it takes to win this race. Richard Hannon senior won it in 2009 with one stepping up from a C4 maiden, and Junior has run 5 in it,with a couple going close at double figure prices. At least she knows how to fight and win, and there should be more to come at some point, hopefully today. The price lured me in somewhat. Given the research below and the case you can make for the horse, i’d be more annoyed if this one won at this price, against loaning back 1 point to the bookies.

Dotty Grand…I deferred to the Osborne headgear angle qualifier below which I looked at after Brian put up a big priced winner at Ascot linked to his 1st headgear record.  This is a very open/weak race on paper, with most of them having plenty to prove and having run a few times in nurseries. This one makes handicap debut and Osborne is 4/16,5p with those in 2018, +35… it looks to me as though  he may have changed approach with this type/is trying to win more on handicap debut than he has before. This one could well be moderate or will show herself to be thrown in at some point. I like the fact she had 3 quick runs in maidens, and has now had a little break, before returning here. I don’t mind that with young horses. She led up in her 6f maidens for quite a way before fading and this drop in trip, and drop into an open C6 handicap, could see improvement, as could the application of CP. He generally knows when to apply them and i’m not sure why you’d waste their application for the first time if the horse wasn’t here to run their best, but we shall see. Osborne doesn’t send many here but is 3/12,5p with those he has, in the last 5 years, 3/10,4p in handicaps. He’s booked Rossa Ryan who’s riding well and rides the track well also. The stalls are stand side on the straight track and if they’re aggressive again it’s not impossible he can get her out and bag the rail. The fav is drawn 1 and hopefully gets marooned up the middle! – of course that may transpire to be the right place but it certainly isn’t a neg for the selection, on paper anyway. The yard are going well enough, with a winner yesterday and he did well on the beach last week at Laytown. That seems to be his target meeting of the year now. Anyway, at 10s I thought she was interesting enough and could bolt up here, or just not be very good…but those maidens have had a few winners/placed come out from in and around her and this is an awful race. There’s a chance she may appreciate the lack of firm in the ground also. Here’s hoping. Trainer/jockey team up with a 16s shot in the race after this, and may be worth some change just in case!

Another Eclipse…I was on the fence for a time with this one but eventually got off it given the stats below and the form of the yard. I can’t work out if this one is a bit of a monkey but in any case at least he’s in form and consistent, and that could count for plenty in this race. He does have a bit to find if some of the other run up to their marks but he came second in this race last year and it may have been the plan again, and AA could bring about improvement in him. This race isn’t necessarily any deeper than some of his recent efforts and he should be thereabouts. Tactically the race is interesting, as there are no blast out front runners and he may try and take this up/dictate. He’ll need to wind him up early but he has the best course form in the race, one of only three to have run here, and that may count for plenty. There was just enough there at the price to my eyes and much like the first pick one of those where i’d be more annoyed were he to win unbacked, than loaning a point back, in the context of the stats etc. AA looks to have a reasonable chance with Kinks in the 3.35 but that’s a 22 runner 2Yo race and i’d want a bigger price than 8s for tipping purposes but he could relish the trip and go close. I can live with the other’s winning on the qualifiers list that Neil put up in the comments, at their prices.

To Listowel…

I hadn’t fully clocked this race until around 9.10 hence the later than usual posting of the tips in one batch, but having looked through it I wanted to have a go at these two decent priced Mullins horses. He won the race last year and looks like he has every chance of doing so again.

Makitorix… arrives in form after a decent spin on the flat, going close carrying 12-00 and the horse in front of him that day has since bolted up again. He’s thoroughly unexposed in handicap hurdles and came a credible 5th in the Coral hurdle earlier in the year, which is a deep/competitive handicap hurdle. If he repeated that run he wouldn’t be far away here for me. This is only his second run in a handicap hurdle and it looks like he appreciates a big field. I’m not sure how they will ride him but they could decide to go forward/have him up there. I thought he was worth a go at double figures.

Voix Du Reve…well I tipped this one LTO at Galway and at 16s I’ll have one more go here. If you’re going to back my recent losing tips systematically, doing so on their next start isn’t a bad place to focus given they’ve pulled in around +300 points in the last year! Urgh. I expected him to try and make all last time but he was held up and never really looked happy to my eyes. Hopefully they try more aggressive tactics here. He’s slightly more exposed but he was going to win the Fred Winter in 2016, but for coming down at the last. He then ran well in a decent enough race at Sandown. I’m not sure he’s in love with deep winter ground, and Galway was soft enough also. I’m not 100% sure on what the going is here but I don’t think it will be that soft. It’s down as soft to yielding in places and they run on fresh ground over hurdles today. The fact Snow Falcon won that race yesterday suggests it wasn’t proper soft albeit his stamina only just lasted in conditions. Anyway, he was worth one more go and it’s only the 12th run of his life. There’s a chance he may prefer going RH LH also, and may well prefer this track to Galway. I’ll pay to find out at 16s. When Mullins wins with a 10s+ shot at these types of Festivals it’s never pleasant when you haven’t looked at the race/considered the horses/given them a chance, as was nearly the case with his 20s winner of the biggie yesterday. I can make a strong enough case for these two, so in we go!

Of the rest…well Mullins will probably win it with Shanning but she drops down from nearly 3m to 2m here…strange…connections must have thought she wanted further and she does have that to prove at the prices. Hopefully she gets outpaced, but she does have the most fascinating profile in this and clearly ‘could be anything’. Townend rides but I never pay much attention to jockey bookings for Mullins in big handicap hurdles. Maybe they fancy her the most, or they actually like her as a longer term prospect this season and want one of their best jockeys looking after her. Is Ruby injured again?? Or is he out in Korea or wherever they had some runners recently. Anyway, jockey bookings are not worth over-thinking in races like this from Mullins. I tipped David’s Charm at Galway also and his race was over after 1/2 a furlong, having blown the start. I doubt he’ll be far away and if you wanted one more to have onside, he’d be it for me at 6s. I can leave Ballyoisin returning after a break and also back from fences. If he transfers that form to timber then he won’t be far away but there’s no value in his price given those questions. As always, I may not have mentioned the winners…but well, backing decent priced Mullins Festival handicap hurdlers will serve us well until he retires, as will those he runs on the flat no doubt!

 

Listowel ‘through the card’… David’s off racing and has asked me to have a flick through, at the bottom of the post….

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

5.20 Ham- Beadlam 9/2 NR

J Osborne/1st Headgear

3.25 FL – Dotty Grand 10/1 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Doncaster Pointers

Read HERE>>>

As below…

 

Trainer Pointers

All stats for previous five meetings/Festivals

Roger Varian

All runners: 33 bets / 11 wins / 20p / +84 BFSP

  • Top 2 at least once on last three runs: 10/23,14p, +80
  • Top 4 LTO: 9/19,12p, +82
  • 1+ runs at track: 8/15,10p, +64

 

David Simcock

All runners: 27 bets / 7 wins / 10p / +27 BFSP

  • Handicaps: 5/13,5p, +31

 

Luca Cumani

All runners: 22 bets / 6 wins / 14p / +23 BFSP

  • 3-10 career runs: 6/14,10p, +31
  • Ran 21-45 days ago: 6/15,11p, +30

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Jockeys

All stats for previous five meetings

Andrea Atzeni

All rides: 78 bets / 22 wins / 41p / +92

  • 5f or further: 22/64,36p, +106
  • 3yo+ races: 17/43,25p, +65
  • 2nd, 3rd, 4th LTO: 12/27,16p, +78
  • Handicaps/ 0-3 runs in handicaps: 7/16,11p, +48
  • Trainers: Varian/Cumani/Simcock: 12/27,16p, +78

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Tipping Results Spreadsheets

Not before time, we now have access to up to date results spreadsheets for all ‘section 2’ tipping from me, to advised and BFSP. The first link below is for the Festival (Big race) Tips, and covers 2018 to date. The second is for the Daily Tips and is from the start of July through to Aug 28th so far. They’ll be an update through to end of Sept come early Oct. Both will be maintained moving forwards and links updated in The Key (which i’ll add asap) monthly. Both are in Excel. My thanks to members Paul and Danny for pulling those together and they’ll be maintaining them, which will be a great help. I’m also speaking with Danny about helping me keep on top of the strategy results updates also. Clearly I’m not expecting them to do it for free 🙂 Anyway, links below for those of you interested. It makes that side of things a tad more professional.

Festival Tips: Results HERE>>>

Daily Tips: Results HERE>>>

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Listowel ‘through the card’ picks

this was a rather brief flick through! …

2.05 – Arcturus

2.40 – Keep Believing / Prove The Point (only 2 horses to have won on heavy, i’ll keep it that simple!)

3.15 – Maajmeh EW

3.50 – Ocean Voyage / Hurricane Sky

4.20 – / beer time!

4.55 – It’s All Guesswork (an apt name I thought!.. I haven’t just picked the name :))

5.25 – David’s Charm (+ the two tips which are main picks obviously!)

6.00 – Easy Gold / Kilcarry Bridge EW (could give some fun from front for a time,could stay there pitching but is 11)

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

49 Responses

  1. U.S. Racing Tips Wednesday evening – Thistledown race 8, 10.10 UK time, Ring Of Iron, 11/2 BOG, 1 point each way. If a non runner then no bet today.

    Good luck.

    1. Hard lines Martin, you appear to have seconditis. Surprised there was $15k up for grabs for the winner yday, didn’t look the best of contests!

      1. Yes, we had a non runner in the race and so there was a rule 4 on the 6/1 I got. Another late finisher who finished too late but got the place. In my figures it was a 0.25 point loss.

      2. Francis
        British racing have let the bookies rule racing taking out and putting little in.
        Approx 10 years ago Dai was thinking of relocating to train in France,where a class 5 race in the uk paid the winner £2000,however in France the class 5 race paid £10000.
        If a recall Malaysia class 5 and 6 races pay the winner more than the UK.
        When Ladbrokes started they took so much out of racing they started a chain of hotels,may be wrong believe the chain is now the Hilton,it is one of the big chains anyway.

  2. The lads have done a sterling job there, well done.

    I notice that Joe Farrell doesn’t appear in the Festival Tips which strictly speaking is correct i think. You had numerous other regional national winners too.

    Will those type of bets be tracked as part of the daily tips in future or will there be a third ‘big race tips’ category!

    1. Hi Francis,
      Outside of Chelt Festival Week, and specifically the Midlands National which I could in the members’ Festival Tips, the likes of Joe Farrel, and the Irish Nat winner etc, are in the Free Tips pile, not included in those two spreadsheets. That’s where in general any 3m+ handicap chase tips live, esp big races, as they have always done. After yesterday’s losers that takes them for the year to… 9/95,29p, +58.5 (advised)

      Taking all tipping content so far to +58.5, (free) +154.5 (Festival/big race tips section 2) +16.4 (daily, section 2) so +229.4 for 2018 to date. I’d take that as a bad/average year every year,across the board, but will try and get up to 300+.

      Maybe from the start of 2019 i’ll get the free tips recorded along similar lines.

      Josh

      1. I get it, cheers Josh. I would settle for that every year too! Probably some have achieved 300 points already with the likes of bacchus and Joe Farrell available at fancy prices on the machine but don’t let me hold up back in your quest…! The Kerry national and big hurdle today certainly perking me up a bit.

  3. One winner and a NR on Wednesday. Thursday qualifiers are:

    14.25 Donc – Fleeting EW (40% win/69% place last 30 days)

    16.40 Donc – Mountain Hunter (41/41 12 months)

    17.10 Donc – Maverick Officer (54/63 30 days)

    16.15 Hamilton – Autumn Flight (46/73 12 months)

    18.55 Hamilton – Nuns Walk (as above)

    Autumn Flight is a 2yo, so I may swerve that one.

    Best of luck.

          1. Ha! No I did in fact swerve it. Mountain Hunter was the first loser of the week (more to follow I’m sure) but had a saver on Josh and Nick’s pick so not unhappy! That’s why I love this site

          2. Formidable opposition when Josh and Nick team up with one, yours (and Banditry) did seem to be unlucky in running though.

  4. For Josh’s trainer and jockey stats for Doncaster we’ve got –

    300 – God Given and Pilaster (ridden by Atzeni)

    440 – Another Eclipse

    510 – Mystic Flight (Atzeni) and Maverick Officer

    Atzeni also rides Star Terms (225) and Kinks (335).

    1. The Racing UK app is good. You can just sign up as a free member. I use GeeGeez, you can track horses, jockeys, trainers, even sires.

    2. Attheraces is pretty good free tracker also I believe, and they send email alerts also if you wish. Plenty of options out there I think.

  5. Thanks for the kind words earlier. Nice to keep the run going today. Just Donny tomorrow:

    Cookupastorm Doncaster Thursday 13:50 1pt e/w Price available 10/1
    Dougan Doncaster Thursday 16:05 1pt e/w Price available 9/1
    Another Eclipse Doncaster Thursday 16:40 1pt e/w Price available 10/1

    1. Have some more kind words, Nick, that was super picking yet again, thank you.

      My stats highlighted Eclipse too, and when Josh went in as well, thank you Josh, i had three points on.

      Lovely!

  6. Very rare flat related post from me as my knowledge is sketchy at best but Another Eclipse seems to be the one to be on today??

    Good luck all!!

      1. I know very little about the flat but the stars did seem to be aligned with this one in terms of jockey stats, trainer stats and jockey/trainer stats
        Cheers
        Doug

  7. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    D 4.05 – Kenny the Captain on 1st run @ 8
    H 5.20 – Eyreborn on 2nd run @ 11
    Festival
    D 4.05 – Eastern Impact on 1st run @ 6
    L 5.25 – Davids Charm on 1st run @ 6
    L 5.25 – Voix du Reve on 1st run @ 16
    GL
    Mike

  8. This week feels the same as last week, start the week well then nothing clicks the rest of the week. Hopefully change that today.

    Chris M Selections:
    Doncaster:
    16:05- Ninjago (9/1 gen)

    Hamilton:
    17:55 – Alabamza (4/1 gen)

  9. I’m on holiday and in need of some cash to pay for it..Lol.. so here is my multi for today based on what I have seen from you all plus one of my own.
    Another Eclipse…6.40 D
    Nuns Walk…6.55H
    Beadlam..5.20H
    Smokey Lane..5.00FL…one of my own
    Maverick Officer..5.10D

    GL

    Mike

  10. Good Morning Chaps

    I’m off to Ireland for the racing this weekend at Leopardstown and The Curragh , if anyone has any Tips/Opinions for either that would be cracking.

    Thanks in advance

    Jim

    1. I’m going to chanpions weekend as well .If you like we can meet for a Guinness .BTW my name is Jim as well .topofthemorningtoyou ☘️

  11. Interesting that A O’Brien puts blinkers on a 2yo ? (335 Donc – The Irish Rover) He did the same with Mendelssohn in the dewhurst when it came 2nd at 50/1. At first glance his record with putting blinkers on for first time on a 2yo in class 1 and 2 races doesnt look great BUT there is strong evidence that they improve in some cases quite significantly and thinking about it logically, maybe, they are showing strong ability at home and not producing it on the track. The Irish Rover is already rated OR108, that 13lbs better than nearest rival and if the blinkers bring some more improvement 5/1 could look huge

    1. Thanks for producing that detailed analysis Ken

      Very informative and as you say if results are only 50% of past achievements it will continue to be a big success (obviously anyone who bets does so at their own risk because nobody can guarantee continued profits)

      If past results Oct – Dec are an indicator then it could be a really successful period we can anticipate (heres hoping)

      Andy

      1. You’re welcome Andy. I’ve also put a post up on Friday’s page but so far Josh’s system has blocked it (I copied the link again which his system sometimes doesn’t like). I’ve asked him to unblock it so hopefully it will come through later tonight or tomorrow. In it I have explained a bit more about how I find my selections. Hope it makes sense.

  12. Hi Josh, just thought I’d comment on your Dotty Grand post. I have Dotty Grand on 66 and Sylvia’s Mother on 65. Given that Dotty is getting 9lbs from Sylvia who is favourite this looks a decent shout. Dotty is tiny but at least she is shaped like a racehorse rather than a yak. Biggest danger is Valentino Sunrise I think who is 2lbs well in with Dotty on my ratings but far more exposed.
    Hugh

    1. Thanks Hugh, we shall see how she goes, but if she’s small then being at the bottom of the weights will help, and in theory should make sense why the mini-break will help, those three quick runs may have taken plenty out of her. rail to help hopefully but at this stage no idea if this side will be a bonus or not! Wasn’t sure drop back 2f would suit Channons, but doing something different and if holds a position/hits the front, prob won’t be caught! We will soon find out.

    1. seems to work well haha. That’s one of the best rides you’ll see for me, given how tricky the horse is. That’s the only way to win on him. Nearly didn’t get any luck but got out and switched in time, shade cosily. No idea where that pace came from but those two front runners have helped him there. exciting finish!

    1. Hear Hear, many thanks Josh and Nick, you eased the pain of my own selection losing, have to have a saver when the gigantic brains coincide!

      1. …well you did me in the 2.25 so it’s good to share it around haha, albeit AOB’s won fairly well in truth, great pick at the prices. On we march.

  13. many congratulations josh and nick great winner i know its been said before many times but you really do help us punters out there in te betting jungle earn a bit of extra money. ihave a low paid job and making extra through you guys really counts many thanks again

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