Members Daily Post: 12/09/18 (complete)

Tips x1, Section 1 (comp), test zone, Doncaster pointers, Kerry National Stats

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Carlisle

1.30 – Qasr (3yo+, + m dist/age) w2 ES+ 7/2 S3A UP

2.00 – Powersail (m dist) H3 I3 G3 5/1 S4 S5  2nd 

3.10 – Oak Park (2YO) 14,30 5/2 UP

4.15 – 

Sir Derrick (m TJC) 11/1 UP

The Right Choice (m class) 10/1 UP

4.50 – 

Just Hiss (m TJC/class move/dist) H3 I1 G1 9/4 S1 S2 S4 3rd 

Brother McGonagall (m dist) 9/1 UP

Withernsea (m dist move) I3 6/1 UP

5.25 – Contrebasse (m class move) H1 I3 G3 9/2 S2 S4 UP

 

Doncaster

4.05 – 

Lady of Shalott (all hncps 5 yrs, all) (hncp debut) ES+ G1 18/1 S3A S6  UP

Pretty Jewel (all hncps) 14/1 3rd 

 

JUMPS

Uttoxeter

2.15 – Boston Heather (m TJC) w2 ES+ 

3.55 – Notnow Seamus (m TJC) w2 ES+ H1 7/2 S3A WON 7/2>11/4 

4.30 – Soupy Soups (m class) ES 11/2 S3 WON 11/2>9/5 (15p R4) 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 24/246,83p, +17.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +150.5)

 

Daily Tips

4.05 Donc – Lady Of Shalott – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP 10/1…a bit of a nothing run, Crowley keen to settle her, made a move of sorts and looked like may make a challenge but wasn’t sustained for very long! A more speculative one, not to be.

that will be all for daily tips, 3x pokes for Kerry National are in the free post… write ups…

 

Lady Of Shalott… a decent day yesterday but no time for self congratulations given the state of that daily tipping pile. That needs to get past 50+ before it starts to look respectable and hopefully this one can help me creep a bit closer. She’s clearly a poke but there’s enough there and has the supporting evidence of the Simcock Leger meeting handicap stats below. This one makes handicap  debut here and is in the ‘could be anything’ category at this level. She drops from competitive listed/group races into a C2 handicap and also drops in trip. She did nothing the last day but at the odds i’ll put a line through that. Maybe it was an off day/hated the track/prob didn’t stay. She was 33s. I liked the fact that she returns to softer ground here, having rained overnight. She won her maiden with cut and it’s not impossible she hasn’t put down on fast ground on recent runs – I got that impression from the Lingfield and Ascot runs. When they travel well and flatten out under pressure, it can be because they’re hating fast turf. Or she was just outclassed and had been going a stride faster than her comfort zone. In any case, given that maiden win it’s not impossible to think she may relish a return to these conditions, unless she does want fast and just had too much ability on debut, ground less important. At least it’s doing something different. Simcock is in fine form also, and in much better form than when she last ran I think. 4/10,5p the last 14 days. He is 2/12 with handicap debutants at the track in the last 5 years, and has only had 8 in total in the period. The jockey booking is a positive also. Spencer doesn’t have any rides today, anywhere (in UK/Ire, that I can see), so I can only assume he’s suspended or abroad somewhere. He has plenty tomorrow. The Simcock/Crowley combo is decent enough… 13/53,27p in all turf handicaps the last 5 years, +15…. 5/20,10p in all C2 handicaps (1/3 on AW). So, no complaints on that front and Crowley is riding well also. It’s clearly a poke in what feels an open race but the fact they pitched her in so deep after her maiden suggests to me they liked her earlier in the season. Maybe with more experience under her belt, the hood on for the second time, an easier grade and softer ground, we could see an improved show.  The racing education she’ll have got from Spencer will pay off at some point, hopefully today. I’ll pay at 16s to find out. Fingers crossed.

*

Kerry National Tips, from Free Post, write ups will be in that post (it’s a 3m+ handicap chase, which is where they live/have always done so) 

The Kerry National 

4.30 Listowel

Oscar Knight – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen)

Call It Magic – 1 point win – 25/1 (gen)

Dell’ Arca – 1 point win – 25/1 (gen)

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat

R Fell

1.30 Carl – Inner Circle 7/2 2nd

4.50 Carl – Elusive Heights 10/1 UP

Top of the Class

3.10 Carl – Oak Park 5/2 UP

3.45 Carl – Fflur 50/1 UP

Osborne/ 1st Headgear

5.45 Kemp- Vibes  22/1

 

Jumps

Autumn Trainers

C Longsdon (8/1< best)

5.05 Uttox – Lady Ingleby 14/1

E Lavelle

3.55 Uttox – Majestic Moll 5/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Doncaster Pointers

Read HERE>>>

As below…

 

Trainer Pointers

All stats for previous five meetings/Festivals

Roger Varian

All runners: 33 bets / 11 wins / 20p / +84 BFSP

  • Top 2 at least once on last three runs: 10/23,14p, +80
  • Top 4 LTO: 9/19,12p, +82
  • 1+ runs at track: 8/15,10p, +64

 

David Simcock

All runners: 27 bets / 7 wins / 10p / +27 BFSP

  • Handicaps: 5/13,5p, +31

 

Luca Cumani

All runners: 22 bets / 6 wins / 14p / +23 BFSP

  • 3-10 career runs: 6/14,10p, +31
  • Ran 21-45 days ago: 6/15,11p, +30

*

Jockeys

All stats for previous five meetings

Andrea Atzeni

All rides: 78 bets / 22 wins / 41p / +92

  • 5f or further: 22/64,36p, +106
  • 3yo+ races: 17/43,25p, +65
  • 2nd, 3rd, 4th LTO: 12/27,16p, +78
  • Handicaps/ 0-3 runs in handicaps: 7/16,11p, +48
  • Trainers: Varian/Cumani/Simcock: 12/27,16p, +78

**

Kerry National

10/178, 40p

10/10 top 8 LTO (0/45,8p were not)

10/10 had 6+ runs prev 365 days (0-5, 0/51, 9p)

10/10 ran within prev 60 days (0/30,4p did not)

9/10 ran in a race for 4yo+ (5yo+, 1/51,8p)

8/10 had 1+ run at the track (0 – 2/82,18p)

7/10 had run over fences at the track (0 – 3/108,22p)

6/10 ran over hurdles LTO (6/48,14p,+61)  

Other

  • French Bred: 0/16,2p
  • 11-4 + : 0/24,6p
  • Top 2 in weights: 0/23, 5p
  • Joint bottom/clear bottom weights: 4/23,6p, +62 SP, +210 BFSP
  • Running at the same/or up 1 class: 0/45,8p
  • 0 runs last 90 days: 0/24,3p
  • 7+ career wins: 0/43,7p
  • 1 win at track: 4/21,6p, +196
  • 2+ distance wins: 0/25,4p
  • Claiming jockeys: 3/33,8p
    • Includes the last 3 winners (3/13,6p), albeit x2 for Lisa O’Neill.

Trainers

  • G Elliot (2/13,3p), E McNamara (2/11,5p)
  • 1x: J J Hanlon/C Byrnes/J Nash/M Morris/A Martin
  • W Mullins: 0/20,3p
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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

57 Responses

  1. U.S.Racing Tip Wednesday Evening – Thistledown race 8, 10.10 UK time, Dr Rincon, circa 6/1. 1 point each way. If a non runner no bet.

    Good luck.

    1. The selection was second, leaving its run too late to catch the winner. SP was 6/1 with some 8/1 available 20 minutes before the off. So a small profit for the place.

    1. As Josh says use them as a starting point.

      The Atzeni micro seems an easy one to start with.

      I have an additional Varian one – class 1 and 2 races, non handicaps.

      John Gosden is going OK and his 2YO’s under 10/1 may go well?

          1. It’s a relatively small number of bets – 82 over 5 years of a 3 day festival – so I might just back them blind.

            Josh, I don’t suppose you know the returns at SP vs BSP? I’m guessing the Varian results include a few winners at big prices, with the average odds of a winner at about 9/1.

  2. After another winner today we are due for the universe to rebalance itself…so onwards to tomorrow’s qualifiers more in hope than expectation!

    14.15 Uttoxeter – Boston Heather

    15.55 Uttoxeter – Notnow Seamus

    Both the above trainer/jockey 46% win/66% place over 12 months.

    Best of luck to all.

    1. Well done again Mark – still 100%. I didn’t get greedy today, just did your selection in a patent with Dr Newland’s 2 runners at Uttoxeter. Very pleased that Mauricio drifted to 11/2 and won !

  3. Soupy Soups Uttoxeter Wednesday 16:30 1pt e/w Price available 8/1
    Marjus Quest Uttoxeter Wednesday 17:05 1pt e/w Price available 10/1
    Sheepscar Lad Doncaster Wednesday 17:15 1pt e/w Price available 10/1

    Anyone who backed my winner today with 365 will have a freebet. I have gone with David John.

  4. A good night on the AW on Monday with 2 winners from 4 selections for 6.5pts profit after Rule 4.

    Kempton tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    6.45 Coverham 3/1 & Crystal Casque 11/4
    7.15 Wohileh 9/4
    8.15 Morning Skye 4/1 & Bombero 7/1

    1pt win each

    Good Luck

  5. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 4.50 – Brother McGonagall on 2nd run @ 11
    D 3.35 – Cadeau Magnifique on 2nd run @ 10
    U 5.05 – Marjus Quest on 2nd run @ 9
    Festival
    D 4.40 – Afaak on 1st run @ 11/8
    L 4.20 – A Rated on 1st run @ 20/18
    U 3.55 – Buckle Street on 1st run @ 11
    3m+
    L 4.20 – Rogue Angel on 2nd run @ 7
    over 3 runs
    L 4.20 – Slowmotion on 5th run @ 16
    L 4.20 – Thunder and Roses on 5th run @ 33
    U 4.30 – Capard King on 4th run @ 13/2
    GL
    If anyone missed the later comments yesterday between myself and Ken, I checked back to beginning of June and there may be possibilities of backing e/w over 10’s or 16’s. It’s worth keeping an eye on,
    Mike

    1. Mike, I’m probably just being thick but what are you say about the each way method?

      I’m only backing the ‘after 1 run’ qualifiers…is there evidence to say they are more profitable to back each way so far?

      1. Hi Chris,
        It’s not more profitable but looks like there is some mileage at e/w for anyone not wanting the added exposure of win only as there will be long losing runs at the bigger odds. Ken’s usual betting practice is e/w @ 10+ so asked if I had any figures. I didn’t, but looked back 3 months and they were profitable in that time eg a quid e/w made 150 ish @ early odds.
        Mike

  6. Today’s Tips – Lady Baker, 4.05 Don, Gosden handicapper 1M+; 2.44 Utt Notnow Seamus, Skelton handicapper at Uttoxeter, less than 2M6F; 7.45 KP Twister, improving Prescott 3YO in an all weather handicap; 4.05 Don Spirit Of Appin, improving 3YO in a handicap, won last two and up in grade.

    Good luck.

  7. What time did people receive the SP2A email this morning? The prices tend to be long gone by the time I get it. Seems to happen most days.

    I got mine at 8.56am today. As examples, the last traces of 10/1 for Marjus quest went at 8.16am with Hills. Price went on David Lloyd at 8.10am. Just makes it hard to determine whether selections are still a bet post price crash.

      1. Just a bit odd that the prices aren’t adjusted just before the email goes out. Understandable today but it is a common problem for me.

      2. I tend to use a thumb in the air method of if the price has dropped over 20% from when tipped, then it is likely to be not profit making. I think i read a Hugh Taylor article (i realise he is different being free) saying the crossover point was about 78% of tipped price.

    1. Took 15/2 Marjus, only 12/1 Lloyd (I got it) left Sheepscar at 7/2. I should of backed that last night as was on my own list.
      Think some of these tipped up by tipsters with a big following,hence the price crash.

      1. Cheers guys, makes sense to make your own decisions on ‘value’ in such circumstances. I’m swerving Bumble so expect that to romp home!

    2. In fairness this mornings email has been total shambles for a number of reasons although there is some justification as Ian’s priorities elsewhere. Do find it concerning they now refer to winners at prices as advised (even when they include rule 4s) and not at SP like they used to but I guess that’s probably a product of a couple poor months.

      1. They have slipped out of form lately and I am not backing the selections at present. I think that now followers should focus on the National Hunt selections and let the flat go for this season. Hopefully they should be back in form soon.
        Whoever said do not focus on the prices quoted in emails is 100% correct. Most posts around the tipping game are like that. Look on Oddschecker at the price and make your own mind up. Personally I do not go each way on a bet unless it it 10/1 or more.
        Plus Ian has some family illness to deal with and so we need to cut him some slack.

        1. I do sympathise with the family illness. My post was unfortunately timing in that regard.

          Today was just an example. Generally, I find the service overly complex at times.

          Prices checked immediately before email sent seems an obvious thing for me.
          …and then results displayed in a way where being a member of mensa isn’t a pre-requisite would be another.

          Rows should be months of the year and columns should be tipsters. Then have 3 simple tables for advised, SP and BFSP. Then everyone is clear. Anyway, probably enough SP2A chat for this page now(!)….

          1. A quick look on the Racing Index of tipsters over the last 12 months will show only 6 made a profit at SP, none of which are likely to repeat looking at the figures closer. Once a tipster gives multiple selections, opening prices with BOG, disregarding N/Rs, adding additional places and booster odds it becomes impossible to make any long term gain. Especially the gain the tipster is advertising. Today is a perfect example where price collapse and N/rs affecting place bets end up with the bemused punter drawing stumps on a selection. Sooner or later one of these will win ( probably after a hefty run of losses) and what was an easy money adventure goes tits up. Nothing more galling than an email informing you the wonderful profit to date while your spreadsheet is a sea of red.

            These professional tipsters are a completely different proposition to the people on here who post selections freely. These selections are opinions and as such hold no responsibility to other members. Josh runs a good ship here and his own opinions are very transparent with no attempt to massage the odds, places or bonuses. Along with members posts on here there really isnt any reason to get involved with professional tipsters and suffer all the heartache.

          2. There are tipsters out there who make consistent profits and they are not all on that list. However according to my data none are outperforming Nick M in 2018, so just stick with him. I also have Josh’s free blog tips (not the daily tips) in third place, based upon the odds I were able to obtain.

      2. Yeah I agree Nick, I get the impression though that other services, new ventures and upgrades are piling up the workload too.
        Things are getting missed more often lately, still a great service though and hopefully things will settle down soon so a bit more housekeeping can be done. Keep missing the Speedway though which is bloody infuriating!

      3. There are no excuses for keeping incorrect records,i must be too transparent and honest, be it racing or golf bets their must be two bookmakers at BOG advertising a price at the time i put the bets on or will not claim it,and always check for R4.
        Not a member of this service,very alarming if they are claiming prices that have long gone prior to clients receiving notification of the bets.

        1. Turns out Oddschecker is completely inaccurate mate and can’t be trusted at all. The non-runners in the 5.05 at Uttoxeter were both after 9am (definitely not at 7.34am and 8.05am as stated on oddschecker) and Bumble Bay was widely available at 28/1 and marjus quest at 10s at 8.55am, despite my comments to Nick on this thread at 8.30am commenting on how his selections (including marjus quest) had moved in price.

  8. Chris M Selections:
    Carlisle:
    13:30 – Rosy Ryan (5/1 gen)
    14:00 – Power Sail (9/1 gen)
    16:50 – Withernsea (7/1 gen)

    Good luck today

  9. I get what folks are saying about prices crashing with SP2a , emails being late, though I can’t see today’s being advertised as being late unless it’s on the site but I’m guessing they wouldn’t want their selections plastered all over here or anywhere else. Just saying , not telling anyone off or anything 🙂

  10. Colin Leafe – I would not normally comment on this Members page. What I would say in response to you; is that when every selection over 8 years is proofed in advance to Racing Index to SP and BSP and the recent introduction of Advised Prices is merely a comparative to compare with 95% of services who do no independent proofing at all, I hope that those who use the service, irrespective of fluctuations in form of which no Tipster has any control ; will view the service as open, transparent and honest, and those who have never used the service should refrain from potentially libellous comments.

    For the record, every advised tip is backed by a £1 bet made via Racing Post ODDS service of top 8 bookmakers; a few minutes before mail is sent each morning without fail, again something the vast majority can’t and won’t be able to verify.

  11. SP2A… you can all move that conversation into the free post if you wish 🙂 Or take up any issues with Ian in private over email. Josh

    1. Good info James, yep, always hard to hold on from the front when strong headwind. That didn’t help my ascot pokes albeit turned out not to be ‘the’ excuse, they were just rubbish!!

  12. Does anyone have Nicks results to ‘Win only’, given his high strike rate I’m wondering if it has proved more profitable. Thanks

  13. Hi Chris, this is the best i can do to £20 win

    2018
    Jan + 950 Bookmakers SP
    Feb + 195 Bookmakers SP
    BF Exchange SP £20 win approx 4% commission
    Mar + 507.62
    Apr – 37.50
    May + 432.87
    Jun + 1312.21
    Jul – 545.33
    Aug + 1260.70

    Sep so far + 65.41

      1. Thanks for sharing Colin. Does make me think backing win only may be more profitable if those kind of results are available at SP although I guess the occasional high BFSP winner may inflate the results a bit which you don’t want to always rely on. Thanks

        1. it’s interesting… the ROI may well be higher backing win only, given it’s usually half the amount, 1 point win vs 1 point EW, but latter may be more profitable, in pure points terms. And as Nick likes to remind me, it’s important to remember that his approach to analysis is with an EW mindset generally, and that’s his strategy.

          I’ve always wondered if bookies take a dimmer view to EW betting, esp the evening before, but I’m starting to think that may just be nonsense and that view isn’t really backed up by anything!! I think i’m in fear of losing my bet365 account, which somehow is still going, and for some reason I think that’s to do with betting win only, and usually after 9am. But given i’ve lost BOG on plenty etc, that’s probably total tosh. I’m probably on one of their lists for their annual Xmas review and will get the chop soon enough!

          Josh

  14. Phenomenal results. There will always be steamers like today but always been impressed how many seem to hold their price / drift and still win. Just shows, Nick sees things others can’t. Tremendous tipping.

  15. Dare one mention about keeping records it is a must if you take your betting seriously,and while i am on don’t forget the betting bank!!!
    This was a service update.

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