A couple of pokes from the members’ post today, hopefully not cursed again…
Members Festival/Big Race Tips
(2018: +154.5 points, or +£1545 to £10 bets)
Zhui Feng – 1 point EW – 22/1 (gen)UP
Sea Fox – 1 point EW– 40/1 (bet365/UniB/Coral/BV) 33/1 (gen) UP
(will be declared to 1/4 4 places if a positive result, albeit 5th 5 places around plenty also)
Ah, well that didn’t go very well. Sea Fox was just poor having been in a prominent position. He was a bit of a stab. Zhui Feng was poor.. i think he did too much on the front end but there was also a strong headwind apparently and being out in front then isn’t the place to be. Still, that was poor. I expected at least one to place hence the staking. Damn. The winner was no shock but I was never tipping him at 7s personally, not given his running style etc, but Watson seen to superb effect again. Both horse and rider have had a very good season. Moving on.
Zhui Feng… there were no stats or trends to help with this race that I could find so i’ve just stuck to the old fashioned way. This one looks over-priced given that on paper at least there isn’t much pace in this. I’ve thought that before over 7/8f on the straight track here only for 4/5 horses who are usually ridden patiently to force a relentless gallop. But, if they all run as they have done on their recent starts, I think he will get his own way up front and will be able to grab the stand side rail. The stalls are over the stand side today which leaves plenty in here drawn lower with questions, and plenty of hold up types needed luck in running. It’s not impossible they all try and merge near-side but this horse should be the one they have to catch. He’s top weight because on what these have done historically he’s the best horse in the race and he does have a touch of class. He relishes the straight course here and on his first run of the season got caught on the line over CD off 106. I can’t say this mark/weight is too high as he hasn’t proved that to be the case yet, and in that scenario i’ll happily take a big price to find out. If he repeats that run, or many of his best runs at the track, then he won’t be out of the places. He gets 1st time blinkers here which I thought was interesting, given one of his big handicap wins here was in first time CP. There’s always a danger they don’t take to them but fingers crossed he does. The days rest suggests this may have been a plan and he does go well after a break. He also takes a drop in class having led a G2 field at a frenetic pace before fading. The race before that he won a Listed race beating a horse rated 110 who has since won again at Chester. He just ticks plenty of boxes and I was surprised to his his price. I wouldn’t have been shocked were he put in at half these odds, based on what he’s achieved on paper and especially at Ascot. Fingers crossed he runs his race, as i’ll be on the edge of my seat in the final 1/2 furlong if he does.
Sea Fox… I couldn’t resist a dabble at these odds given he’s another prominent racer who’s drawn high and I suspect he’ll sit just behind the selection above. Whether he’s good enough to stay there we shall see but he came a decent 3rd in the Victoria Cup earlier in the season over this CD and if he repeated that run he’d be bang there. Zhui Feng and Rip Orff were just ahead of him that day and if I fancy the one above, I have to give this one a squeak. He didn’t run that well at York. I’m not sure he stays 8f at that pace/field size/level but he did look beat before stamina was an issue so that’s a concern. But, some horses just don’t like York. It could be he’s now out of form and his yard is quieter than ideal. But, you can over-look plenty at this price and that Ascot performance stuck in my head. He was 40s that day and out-ran his price so I’m not sure it’s a guide as to what we can expect here. I can but dream of these two being 1-2 the whole way and them fighting it out to the finish, with the closers leaving it too late!
Of the rest…well pace wise…Belle Meade has made all the last twice but in small fields and at a lower level. I don’t think she has the ability to head the two above and lead them, not without doing too much. But, she could sit handy and is in form, so a big run wouldn’t be a total shock. The two Johnston horses can be up there but they are drawn low and could be marooned up the middle of the track which fingers crossed isn’t the place to be. Of course there’s a chance that the rail isn’t the place to be but that’s impossible to tell before the race is run this time. I don’t really like anything at 12s or shorter…in the context plenty are drawn low/could be on the wing, and the fact that most/all are usually held up, I don’t think any are over-priced. They are all going to need the leaders to stop, to set them a decent pace, and they’ll need luck in running. 12s/10s always seems short enough to my eyes for a hold up horse in a 16+ runner C2 handicap, when i don’t think there will be a pace burn-up. So, I can live with any of those winning. Clearly there are some more lightly raced/progressive ones at the head of affairs and one of them may relish this, but I like a juicy price in these big races. The last tip at this track in a 7f handicap won at 50/1, so I can get dreaming again for another biggie. Finally, the usual caveat… there’s every chance i haven’t mentioned the winner!
Best of luck with any bets,
p.s Freebie… don’t forget...if you’re not on my email list and would like to be sent my latest free stats report then head HERE>>> This one looks at three jumps trainers to keep onside in the coming weeks and there is one qualifier today…
5.50 Strat – Topfofthecotswolds