Members Daily Post: 05/09/18 (complete)

Tips x2, Section 1 (comp), test zone,

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Bath

2.30 – Babyfact (3yo+ 5 yrs, 3yo+) ES+ 4/1 S3A UP

4.00 – 

Frantical (4yo+) 14 8/1 UP (ok run in 4th) 

Altaira (4yo+) (added late, 08.18) 14 H3 7/1 WON 7/1>11/2 

Eben Dubai (m class) 13/2 UP

4.35 – Solar Gold (all hncps) I3 G1 4/1 S2 WON 4/1>9/4 

 

Ffos Las

5.30 – 

Silverturnstogold (m class) 14 H3 4/1 UP

Sugar Plum Fair (m class) 14 22/1 UP

Hold Your Breath (m class) 14 

7.35 – Lone Voice (m class) 14 22/1 

 

JUMPS

Southwell

2.20 – Dotties Dilema (all hncps) w1 14,30 H3 I3 15/2  WON 15/2>8/1 

(jumps section 1 quals that won LTO is ticking along fine, sometimes simple is best it seems! Always some regret not tipping them when they do that, if i’d known/predicted he would be ridden up there i’d have been more tempted. But hopefully a few follows of that simple approach, even to small stakes. Logically it should keep ticking along. Sean jumped off pretty quick so fingers crossed the horse is ok) 

3.50 – Mariners Moon (hncp hurdle + m dist) I1 G1  12/1 S1 S2 S5 UP

4.20 – Get Home Now (all hncps) 14,30 I3 G1 16/1 S1 S2A S5 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 23/237,81p, +15.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +154.5)

 

Daily Tips

3.50 South – Figeac – 1 point win – 7/1 (bet365/BV) 13/2 (gen) UP, poor effort, maybe he was too keen again but not sure an excuse. Doesn’t look like that flat spot he hits was anything to do with being outpaced/needing a trip. Not one to trust for now.

4.00 Bath- Frantical– 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) An ok run, the stable mate won, hopefully you may have read write up and had saver on. He ran on well into 4th, i thought he may swoop down the outside but that’s just him I think. Damn.

that’s all for tips, 09.10, write ups…

 

Fiheac... the first of two atrocious races that won’t really take much winning and this horse is the most interesting in here by far. He has a touch of the ‘could be anythings’ about him. This is the 9th start of his life, only his 3rd handicap hurdle and importantly his first go over 2m4f. Having watched his runs at Huntingdon and Taunton in April/May it looks well worth a go, as he was outpaced both times turning for home there, before plodding on/sticking to his task. Both of those contests were much deeper than this race, and the Taunton one was decent enough…the front three from that have since won 4 races between them.  He returned 4 days ago on the flat where he shot to the front and pulled like a train. He was still thereabouts 1f or so out before fading – it was an ok run. I suspect he needed it and I find it intriguing that they turn him out quickly here, especially as the trainer has a decent enough record when doing so. The tongue tie also returns. Jack Quinlan rides him again and has been on him for all of his NH runs. He’s a brilliant jockey as I know from his association with Amy/Really Super, a very good thinker about a race and his feedback is always top notch. He usually likes to race up there also, never too far away, and he’s the only horse in the race to have made the running on recent runs. Given it’s a new trip, I doubt he’ll blast off in front but it’s not impossible he rides a waiting race on the front end before then kicking for home. In any case I hope he’s in the front 3/4. He was a slick hurdler when last seen and this trip will either be the making of him, or of course he’ll flatten out and won’t stay. That’s the risk. Litmoden doesn’t have too many decent horses and plenty go off at monster odds, but a few in recent weeks have out-run big odds to place. I also noted that he’s the co-owner of this one, and i’d like to think betting on the odd winner may have a part to play in the business plan! He’s only run 14 horses in handicap hurdles in the last 5 years, 2 have won. In C5 handicap hurdles he is 2/5. He has an interesting profile here and could win this very well, if it all comes together. The dangers… well the fav is a danger (shock!) if repeating her chase form back over hurdles. This is her trip so you can ignore the last run, the one before that she was going well when coming to grief and that was after a win at Worcester. The 37 days off would be a niggle and she’s usually held up out the back, but maybe Dickie will be more aggressive. She’s certainly not over-priced and with any luck will be outpaced/jump them too big. Ring Eye is interesting but is 10 and doesn’t win very often, and he looks a bit trip-less… he runs over 3m as if this trip should be ideal but has been outpaced over it before. Then we have Mariners Moon… a strategy pick for Jumps S1/S2A… hard to make a case on paper but that was the case yesterday when we got some luck. 1/39 in his career, 0/13 over timber. But he gets a tongue tie, returns to hurdling and this trip is intriguing. But he does look out of sorts. Stranger things have happened though and as I said this is a shocker of a race – nothing would totally surprise. He’s been backed with my systems bank, which is the point of those…no form reading required. If Discay wins after 571 days off then i’ll just applaud the trainer, I can live with that!

Frantical… he has the best recent form in this race in my view, although the stable-mate appears to be better fancied so we shall see (1/4 on him just in case/to soften the blow) He is one of a handful with proven stamina and the trainer is 2/12,4p in 10f C6 handicaps at the track.  Poppy is riding well and she is 4/7 on Carroll’s runners in the last 14 days, 6/18, 7p in the last 30. Carroll’s are running better than they have been – 7/36,11p in the last 14 days, and maybe that will rub off on this one. The horse…well the return of headgear lured me in, given he’s 2/5,2p in flat handicaps with either blinkers/CP on, 0/11,2p when he’s not wearing any. He’s a headstrong sort who needs plenty to drop right but maybe the CP will help him settle better and see out his race, which I don’t think he did LTO, using up too much energy and in the wrong place in what turned into a dash. The two runs before that were interesting, and have worked out well. He ran ok up the middle for a time at Windsor, not the place to be, having been held up and coming wide. He was 6th there, but the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th all came out and won again. At Newbury he got beat 1/2 a length in a class 5, the two in front of him both winning since as has one of those behind him. So, there’s some depth there. This is his first run at Bath which poses a question but he’s won at Brighton, and that’s similar to a point. Firm is a question also, but that’s the case for nearly all in here. He’s won/placed on good to firm and i’m not sure why you’d waste the return of headgear/declare him at Bath, if you didn’t think it would be ok. With Poppy’s claim he’s 9lb below his last winning turf mark. This is just an awful race and the weakest he’s been in for some time to my eye. Everything has questions to answer. Hopefully there’s some pace on, he can settle, and stay on best of the lot, swooping past to win a shade cosily! I should mention the other stats qualifier, Eben Dubai…he will have needed the last run but it was still rather poor, and he’s now 0/16 in his career..yet to prove he likes winning. But, they may change tactics now and blast out, and with form over further could stay there if a1. I’m hoping he sets it up for the selection.

So, that’s those two. Enough method to the madness there but it is poor racing with unpredictable animals, so you can never be too confident!

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Yesterday was one of those rare very good days. Pleased with how I read Twilight…it doesn’t get much better than that actually, from a race reading/analysis/price point of view, and the aim is to try and find more of those. I did much pondering during my ‘week off’ from tipping, and I need to be stricter with selections and more methodical – placing more emphasis on trainers in form, horses that have run well recently, hot form, class drops/jockey changes, added in to everything else that rattles around my head. I need to be putting up horses that tick more of my boxes, and get back to more 8/1+ shots. Fine tuning, as there were enough placed horses to not lose all faith and if just a handful of the 2nds/3rds had won that profit pile would be 80+ on the daily tips. We shall see how I do in the next few months.

The cherry on the cake was a 33/1 (55/1 BFSP) winner for the two big odds jumps strategies, S1 and S2A (which is a subset of S2) S1 is like Flat S6, and every hope that can add a few points to the coffers in the coming months. It had a decent 2017, but was about -6 or so for 2018 before the Geegeez Speed returned a few days back. That now looks a lot healthier. They are low win% / big odds approaches that work well to BFSP but there will be/have been hefty losing runs. It’s a case of starting small and building up over time. Hopefully some of you had a go on one or both of those strategies. Gavin won’t thank me for mentioning but as he’s posted a comment below… we chat on the tweet machine, and he’s a systematic follower of Jumps S1 and S2A… apart from yesterday, where he missed it! Ah. Painful as that’s 2x £20 on the nose at 33s for him (he’s been here a while and built up).  That happens to us all, and i’ve missed the odd biggie from those. I think he had a few beers last night to get over the pain. That’s the game with our approach here though, we will all miss winners and best trying to move on as quickly as possible.

That winner sent Jumps S1 to around +44 BFSP for the year, on the back of +118 in 2017. S2A now on around +94 BFSP to 1 point win, +44 to 1/2 EW morning/bog odds. Not too shabby but it’s those biggies, however lucky they are, that make the difference come year end, and help pay for a lot of losers.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat

The Doyler

6.20 Wolv- Luxor 4/1 WON 4/1>3/1 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

My Losing Tips…

Just a note to draw your attention to Mike’s daily posts in the comments, where he tracks my losing tips (daily tips/Festival tips from section 2 above, + my tips from free posts, mainly 3m+ hncp chases). It would appear i’m rather premature with plenty of them, as you can see from the results below. I know Mike and a few others back them systematically and while I don’t do that as yet, clearly they’re all worth a second glance for a few runs after I’ve tipped them. Given my approach across the three different tipping elements there is plenty of logic for why enough of them would show their true colours a few starts after I’ve tipped them, and they’ve lost. Any such tip could be in form / well handicapped/unexposed/hot form element/suited to a Festival type race / etc …all reasons for why they could show winning form soon enough, if they so happen to lose when I tip them- which is most of them! Many may run in similar conditions on their next few starts, or indeed being doing something different which unlocks more. For the Festival tips.. well if i’ve deemed them in with a chance in a competitive class 2 and they fluff their lines, it makes sense that they may show up well again when running in a similar race not long after, or indeed if dropped in class say – if i’ve done my job right on the initial selection. Plenty of ‘jumps festival’ tips, esp Cheltenham say, may end up running at Aintree/Punch/Galway etc, or a big Sat handicap, and show up well.

Indeed, since 3rd Oct 2017 as below, if you’d have backed every one of my losing tips just on their next start…

634 bets / 67 wins / +286 bog/early morn odds / +57 SP 

The full results, as per Mikes comments in recent days, are below. It’s something for me to absorb and try and use moving forward. I need to get in the habit of tipping a few more of them where possible, albeit I doubt i’d do better than a systematic approach – but it’s a lot of bets and i’m anxious about a systematic approach with them – but the results look rather good. Anyway, as always, that’s just info to absorb/ignore as you please. My thanks to Mike for tracking and posting them all, as it’s not something i’m able to keep on top of at the moment.

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Results for all my losing tips, as recorded by Mike, from 3rd Oct 2017 to 2nd Sept 2018…

Josh’s Tips p/l figs up to 2/9 inc. (tip lost, tracked for subsequent runs as below, stop at a winner)

Daily Tips (members/section 2)
345 x 1st run, 42 x win @ 12.2% sr, bog + 98.3, sp – 13.75
310 x 2nd run, 34 x win @ 11% sr, bog + 15.5, sp – 54
195 x 3rd run, 20 x win @ 10.3% sr, bog + 57.35, sp + 33.85
108 x 4th run, 18 x win @ 16.7% sr, bog + 12.5, sp – 19
34 x 5th run, 13 x win @ 38.2% sr, bog + 56.5, sp + 37.5
21 x 6th run, 5 x win @ 23.8% sr, bog + 39, sp + 32.5
13 x 7th run, 2 x win @ 15.4% sr, bog + 17, sp + 12.5
13 x 8th run, 4 x win @ 30.8% sr, bog + 54, sp + 44
5 x 9th run, 0 x win, – 5
4 x 10th run, 0 x win – 5

Festival Tips (members/section 2)
152 x 1st run, 14 x win @ 9.2% sr, bog +145.75, sp + 77
57 x 2nd run, 12 x win @ 21% sr, bog + 20, sp + 6.45
25 x 3rd run, 1 x win @ 4% sr, bog – 15.5, sp – 16
8 x 4th run, 1 win @ 12.5% sr, bog + 5, sp + 2
5 x 5th run, 0 x win – 5
3 x 6th run, 2 x win @ 66.7% sr, bog + 16, sp + 8.5

3m+ (chase tips/free posts)
134 x 1st run, 11 x win @ 8.2% sr, bog + 42, sp – 6
22 x 2nd run, 7 x win @ 31.8% sr, bog + 43.75, sp + 32
6 x 3rd run, 1 x win @ 16.7% sr, bog + 1, sp – 1
3 x 4th run, 0 x win, – 3
3 x 5th run, 1 x win @ 33.3% sr, bog + 12, sp + 9
1 x 6th run, 0 x win, – 1

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Trainer Track Profiles: Jumps 2018/19

Just a note to say that i’m planning on having the new stats guide in use for what is unofficially the start of the jumps season proper, at Chepstow’s opening meeting of the year on Sat 13th October. I’ll be using the current TTP Jumps guide until then. (link in ‘research articles’ link in Key) 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

29 Responses

  1. U.S. Racing Tip – Finger Lakes race 8, 9.19 UK time, Monmouth Beach circa 10/3, 2 points win. If a non runner then replace with Im Not Funny 1 point win.

    Good luck.

    1. ah, karma…as I was writing them up i actively thought ‘ah, I haven’t missed one in a while’ haha. That will teach me! I’ll amend. cheers.

  2. Three winners from four races at Kempton tonight. Even with a 25p Rule 4 in the 8.45, we still come out with 14.25pts profit.

    With Josh’s 14/1 tip and a 33/1 S2A winner, I’d say that was a pretty good day for team RTP, if you had them all (I didn’t have the S2A doh!!)

    Two AW meetings tomorrow at Lingfield and Wolves. Qualifiers below:
    Lingfield
    1.40 Molly Jones 5/1
    2.40 Havana Mariposa 9/2
    3.10 Majrooh 10/1

    Wolves
    5.50 Amoreena 14/1
    6.20 Sosume 5/1
    6.50 Minneli 10/1

    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    1. Well done Ken
      Just wondering if you have retained records from last Autumn / Winter to give a brief analysis of Profit / ROI on selections as a bit of a backdrop to past results.
      No problem if you haven’t & not expecting you to spend time doing research as I know how time consuming it can be
      regards
      Andy

      1. Hi Andrew. Yes I still have all the data from Oct 17. Might be later in the week before I have time but shouldn’t take too long.

  3. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    F 5.30 – Foxrush Takes Time on 1st and 2nd run @ 22, pp/bf 25
    Festival
    G 7.40 – Davids Charm on 1st run @ 5/2
    GL Mike

    1. Ah, I can feel your pain, yep don’t read my re-cap to follow in section 2 haha. Horrid. But it’s gone now, they’ll be more! I fear you weren’t the only one. Urgh. Moving on!

  4. Two all weather meetings today.
    Gosden and Dettori team up for two at Lingfield, 3.10 Tiffin Top 2/1 and 4.45 Panmolle 8/11. John Feane from Ireland has a runner in the 1.40, Pavlichenko 9/2. Atzeni and Crowley also ride there.
    At Wolverhampton Ryan Moore rides one for Sir Michael, 6.20 Extreme Force 2/1. SDS and James Doyle also ride there. Doyle has one ride as well and is in the same race as Moore, 6.20 on Luxor 11/2.

    At Ffos Las in the 7.00 Sir Mark and Luke Morris team up with Altra Vita 9/4 BOG. I also hear a good word for Whispering Sands in the same race 8/1 BOG.

    Good luck.

    1. Hi Martin. Well done on your 12/1 winner yesterday. Quick question. When you put up these thoughts/musings are you actually tipping them or just putting them up as starting points? Cheers.

      1. I am suggesting that you all include them in bets. However I will spell it out with clarity in future.

        Good luck.

  5. Chris M Selections:
    Southwell:
    14:20 – Dotties Dilemma (9/1 gen)

    Lingfield:
    14:40 – The Chemist (7/2 gen)
    16:45 – Game Player (7/1 gen)

    Gowran Park:
    16:40 – Scream (7/1 gen)

    Good luck today 🙂

    1. well done with Dotties Chris…stared at him for a time, along with two I went with, and for some reason put myself off tipping him…should have looked at opposition closer as was a poor bunch/a few with fitness/wellbeing/ability/staying questions, and he was in fine form. ratings/weight can mean sod all for chasers in form, when oppo isn’t up to much. Did his usual idling in the closing stages..didn’t expect Sean to be so aggressive on him but tanked through first 3f and decided to get him up there and then take it up heading out. Brilliant ride. Still, had a few coins on as a jumps w1 which I take more not of now so not all bad! good stuff.

      1. Cheers Josh, yeah his form against the rest is what swung it for me. The weight was a niggle but at that price the niggle was worth a punt. Glad it paid off. Guarantees my profit for the day but hopefully grab another from the two left

  6. Does anyone have a view about the merits of Proform, which I haven’t used, compared with other products, for example, Geegeez Gold, which I have. Any views/advice would be much appreciated.

    1. ridiculously over-priced would be my initial reaction! From what i’ve heard from a reliable source or two, certainly compared to other products out there. But, if there’s a low cost trial or something, or the pricing has changed, no harm in trying. I can’t imagine my punting world without the geegeez racecards, and i’ve yet to see anything that matches that. I think Inform Speed is pretty good, in terms of content also, that has plenty to get stuck into. But, i’ve never used proform properly and basing on the assumption that I thought it used to be around £600+ annually, which could be incorrect! I’ve never used it bar the odd free snippet.

      I believe you can get free proform info if you have a BetDaq account and have money deposited. I think you can access some race card features with a link at the top of each race in the exchange, so that may be worth looking into. I’ve never used it and don’t know what info is in there and as I type have nothing deposited in my account so can’t look. But that would be a free way of getting some of the race card content.

      Josh

      1. Yes you can get some data from Pro Form free on Betdaq. I do use it but do not like the Betdaq website for functionality and so am only an occasional user. I would not purchase Pro Form. I think that Geegeez Gold is a superior product.

  7. Does anyone have a list of the ‘W1/2 Jumps only’ bets and results prior to 29/8, please. This looks like worthwhile group of bets to systemise with a staking plan and I’d like to look at the losing and winning sequences.
    I made Collodi a ‘no bet’ y’day but have three wins from six otherwise.

    1. Hi Chris… I posted an update on the post on 30th August, and the Jumps w1 updated in ‘where to begin’ link up to 25th…. in any case…

      from 12th Feb 2018 (when I had the idea/started monitoring) to 26th Aug 2018…

      Jumps w1: 31/102,37p, +40.25

      Jumps w2: 15/80,27p, +29.6

      Total: 182 bets / 46 wins / 64 wins|places / +69.85 (early/bog)

      That +8 will help, not sure what they’ve done since 26th to 04th Sept as yet. Both seem worthwhile, albeit the jumps w2 only came into profit in last couple months after a very good run/odd nice winner. In theory both should keep ticking along I think, as jumps horses in form are to be feared, and I should certainly be homing in on them/studying them closer for tipping purposes. Dotties wasn’t too hard to find at a nice price, on reflection, having stared some more, but then i’m looking having seen him just win which always clouds judgement to some degree! talked myself out of him this morning for some reason.

      I have no idea on the losing/winning sequences, but i suppose from the win % you should be able to predict them roughly? Small samples to be making staking plans maybe, as unlike the test chase starting points system you follow, I don’t have all that historical data to add to confidence.

      Josh

      1. Thanks, Josh; I’ve failed to remember those links but the overall SR for the two @ 25% is attractive, especially if one can eliminate a few losers.
        From 29/8 they are 3/7,+9.25 and better at BSP – and that includes Collodi and both W2 losers.

  8. Tony Carroll on one of his hot streaks, 3 wins today i think with a couple still to come. Sods law Frantical the only one not to win so far.

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