Members Daily Post: 03/09/18 (complete)

Section 1 (comp)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Brighton

4.00 – 

Dukeofwellingford (all hncps) G3 10/1 UP

Social Butterfly (3yo+) 12/1 UP

Cruel Clever Cast (m class) I3 12/1 UP

4.30 – Good Luck Charm (m class/going) w1 H1 I1 11/4 S1 

5.05 – Light of Air (m going) H3 I3 G3 15/2 S4 S5  UP

 

Ffos Las

2.15 – 

Awesome Allan (m dist) H3 I3 G1 5/1 S2 S4 2nd 

Give Em A Clump (m dist) G3 9/2 UP

4.45 – Essenaitch (m dist move) H3 I1 5/1 S2 UP

 

Windsor

3.55 – Silca Mistress (m TJC) H1  4/1 

6.00- Iconic Knight (all hncps) H3 G3 10/3 S5 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 22/233,80p, +4.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +154.5)

 

Daily Tips

None today. I’ve had a look, but nothing is leaping out at me on what is generally a day of moderate racing. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW Report

The Jumps: Who to Follow this Autumn: READ HERE>>>

Do have a flick through. Covers Longsdon, NTD and Lavelle, inc some ‘notes’ at the end, inc how you can focus in on certain qualifiers. I’m anxious to advise following systematically but i’m fairly confident that as a portfolio they’ll do well but in any case should be very good ‘starting points’. Twister made us +45 points or so last Sept/Oct, hopefully he can repeat that and the other two can chip in. 

*

Geegeez Speed…

NOTE. G1/G3.. has returned for the JUMPS, having had the summer off. This brings Strategy 1 back into play… any jumps qualifier that has a G1 or G3, is 10/1 or bigger on general morning price (qualifies at that point, or at a point you look the evening before) OR is sent off 11.00 or bigger BFSP (this covers the drifters) (that price can be set at any time you wish) All info relating to that strategy can be found within the various links in The Key above. Fingers crossed Jumps S1 can pick up having had an iffy 2018 to date. I’m not sure if that was down to the very bad weather we had or just how it goes. Again that is a low SR strategy and there will be long losing runs. 

The return of Geegeez Speed for jumps will also bring back Jumps S4 (which is on the naughty step) and should mean more S3A# qualifiers, of which we can keep an eye on. 

I’d hope that Jumps S1, S3A# and ‘in form’ horses (w1/w2) will be a decent Jumps portfolio, but time will tell. The latter two have done well over the summer months. 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

47 Responses

  1. U.S. Racing selection for Sunday Evening – Saratoga Race 10, UK time 10.38, Win The War, 1 point each way. If a non runner Moonshine Memories will be the replacement selection.

    Good luck.

  2. Hi Josh, I am heading to Windsor with a few mates tomorrow evening. Would value your thoughts on the card if you get a chance to take a look?

        1. Bashiba 600 was squeezed out and had to barge through, finishing 2nd lto, here, beaten 1/2 a length.
          in 2016, won twice in C3 0-95, including CD, so worth a bet in this 0-80, down from Yorkshire again.

    1. My brief thoughts… to be taken with a pinch of salt/added to your own!…

      4.15 – Bombastic
      3.55 – Annonymous John / Sir Roderic
      4.25 – In the Cove EW
      4.55 – Venture
      530 – Rollicking
      6.00 – Harry Hurricane
      6.30 – Chikoko Trail / Mystic Meg
      7.00 – / …. Lilypad EW for fun, market suggests fav may be hard to beat but you never know.
      7.30 – The Secrets Out

      Josh

    2. I see that SDS and Oisin Murphy travel to Windsor from the meeting at Brighton to ride at Windsor. They both ride for a mix of trainers and looks like volume rather than anything special? James Doyle is also there and rides Astronaut for Haggas in the 4.55 and may be some value against Dirty Rascal ? He also rides two more for Haggas and may be worth following?
      The Gerard Mosse and Charlie Hills team up and have been going OK and may be some each way value in races?

      Good luck.

      1. Mosse/Hills 1 win from 15, 1 place last 90 days. 2 wins from 21 4 places over the last year?

        Mosse over 20% win rate over the last 2 weeks tho so maybe without Hills

  3. In case you missed it from Sunday’s post:

    One thing I should clarify is that my revised method of selection for the AW only applies to Chelmsford, Lingfield, Southwell and Wolves. The results for those courses are fairly similar. However, Kempton and Newcastle continue to throw up different results, so I have separate strategies for those courses which may still throw up two selections in the same race.

    For the first four courses above, the overall profits from 12 Dec were 88.54pts. Interestingly, if I’d applied my new method of selection over the same period, the profits would’ve been 156.8pts. While this comes with the usual warnings that past performance is no guarantee of future returns, it gives me more confidence going forward.

    Newcastle tomorrow. Qualifiers below:
    5.20 Vera Drake 3/1 & Chantresse 3/1
    6.20 Olivia R 10/1

    1pt win each

    Gooc Luck

      1. Morning Ken,
        There does appear to be some decent mileage in backing these blind with nearly a years results in. It’s deciding where the cut-off in terms of runs is. I decided to keep round figures of 10 for my bets. There have been winners beyond 10 runs at odds of 10+. A case in point recently was My Amigo. I didn’t back it on it’s 11th run and Nick tipped it. One guess on the result of that race?
        A more steady profit may be had by backing e/w where odds are favourable although I haven’t got any figures to support that but there are plenty that place in races before a win.
        Mike

    1. Hi Mike, thanks for those. I’ll repeat them on here soon… so those are ‘stop at a winner’ ? and since when/what time period?
      cheers, Josh

        1. As it’s a quiet day I’ll throw something else in the mix to do with as you please.
          Some runners get re-tipped before a win eg Copper Knight and Dark Shot on Saturday who were both on their 2nd run since the most recent tip but CP was on 3rd run from previous tip and DS on 4th. This is reflected in the figs but I only use the most recent tip for the post. I have thought of doubling up or adding 1/2 stake to these, depending on the odds. As a stand alone method they would be slightly in the red atm but I can see no reason over time why they won’t be profitable based on the figs.
          I’ll highlight any of these in the post going forward.

  4. i’m going for a couple of oldies at Brighton today, both running off fair marks and have won over CD.
    3-00. Perfect Pasture 20-1
    4-00. Shifting Star 14-1
    ew singles and an ew double.

  5. COLINS BETS
    Ffos Las
    2.15 Awesome Allan BOG 10/1
    Brighton
    3.00 Seaforth BOG 5/1
    Newcastle
    8.20 Brendan BOG 9/2
    8.20 Windforpower BOG 8/1

  6. Results for all my losing tips, as recorded by Mike, from 3rd Oct 2017 to 2nd Sept 2018…

    Josh’s Tips p/l figs up to 2/9 inc. (tip lost, tracked for subsequent runs as below, stop at a winner)

    Daily Tips
    345 x 1st run, 42 x win @ 12.2% sr, bog + 98.3, sp – 13.75
    310 x 2nd run, 34 x win @ 11% sr, bog + 15.5, sp – 54
    195 x 3rd run, 20 x win @ 10.3% sr, bog + 57.35, sp + 33.85
    108 x 4th run, 18 x win @ 16.7% sr, bog + 12.5, sp – 19
    34 x 5th run, 13 x win @ 38.2% sr, bog + 56.5, sp + 37.5
    21 x 6th run, 5 x win @ 23.8% sr, bog + 39, sp + 32.5
    13 x 7th run, 2 x win @ 15.4% sr, bog + 17, sp + 12.5
    13 x 8th run, 4 x win @ 30.8% sr, bog + 54, sp + 44
    5 x 9th run, 0 x win, – 5
    4 x 10th run, 0 x win – 5

    Festival Tips
    152 x 1st run, 14 x win @ 9.2% sr, bog +145.75, sp + 77
    57 x 2nd run, 12 x win @ 21% sr, bog + 20, sp + 6.45
    25 x 3rd run, 1 x win @ 4% sr, bog – 15.5, sp – 16
    8 x 4th run, 1 win @ 12.5% sr, bog + 5, sp + 2
    5 x 5th run, 0 x win – 5
    3 x 6th run, 2 x win @ 66.7% sr, bog + 16, sp + 8.5

    3m+ (chase tips/free posts)
    134 x 1st run, 11 x win @ 8.2% sr, bog + 42, sp – 6
    22 x 2nd run, 7 x win @ 31.8% sr, bog + 43.75, sp + 32
    6 x 3rd run, 1 x win @ 16.7% sr, bog + 1, sp – 1
    3 x 4th run, 0 x win, – 3
    3 x 5th run, 1 x win @ 33.3% sr, bog + 12, sp + 9
    1 x 6th run, 0 x win, – 1

    1. Mike what time of day do you get the BOG prices from? Is it the night before, the next morning or does it vary? Thanks

          1. Thanks for the reply and sorting these. I’ll be starting backing the ‘on the first run’ from tomorrow.

  7. Chris M Selections:
    Brighton:
    16:30 – Good Luck Charm (10/3 gen)
    17:05 Light of Air (11/2 gen)

    Ffos Las:
    16:15 – Accomplice (16/1 gen)

    Results for last week to follow, along with breakdown for August.

    1. Re-Cap w/c 27/8/18:
      34 bets – 3 winners
      S/R: 8.82%
      ROI: -59.03%
      P/L: -20.07 pts

      Overall:
      342 bets – 63 winnners and 7 N/R
      S/R: 18.86%
      ROI: +7.11%
      P/L: +23.81 pts

      June: -10.4 pts
      July: +33.68 pts
      August: -0.97 pts
      Sept: +1.5 (ongoing)

      A very poor end to August meant what looked like a profitable month came back down to just about even. Seems I wasn’t the only one who had a tough August, well apart from the man Nick Mazur who kept my balance looking good 🙂 . Few things noted from the end of last month was the amount of selections I had each day, I am looking to reduce them while still keeping a good ROI however I won’t be tweaking too much until I have a larger back log of bets to sift through.

      Good luck with your bets today!

  8. Lucrative Racing Shortlist,been receiving emails for the past 12 months,with free systems and stats mainly trainer and jockey based,always appears logic behind them,but have never monitored or recorded them.
    Now he has opened up his Betfair account for viewing,do not know if he is able to fiddle this if it is true then would take a closer look at his free systems/stats which he has sent over the past week.
    Anyone come across him?

    1. Yes I know some history of selections etc, although not lately. I did not find the service to be profitable when I tracked it for a while.

    2. I followed Lucrative Racing for a while but left them after suffering losses. I think they are a genuine outfit, but not for me.

  9. As nice a guy as he seems, I’ve never seen the Lucrative stuff to be profitable.
    Continuous launch, relaunch, revamp, rebrand etc etc tells its own story for me.

    We all have poor runs (trust me, I’m well aware of it), but if the methodology is sound, there’s no need for constantly changing things.

    Chris

  10. Back Lucrative…
    The free content is always worth a read albeit the free reports etc usually only appear when there’s something to sell, unless I’m being harsh and actually only notice when launches something.

    I participated in a couple of his early launches but have refused,having been invited, to do so for his latest offerings over the last year. Like Chris above I don’t like the constant re launch/launch of new services and re branding of old ones. It all feels desperate at times and doesn’t strike me as having a set approach/yet to find a model that works. I also had a long chat over email with a member who tried a couple of years back and was far from impressed. I’m not sure what existing members on product X think when they see these new methods, esp if the service they’re on may not be performing.
    I think Michaels intentions may be good and he thinks about the game in depth and gives impression his own betting results are decent.
    And I think he does use ClickBank? Which is always a positive. Dodgy people don’t use CB I don’t think as you have 60 day refund period and never need speak to the vendor to process it. So, if you paper trade, there can only be so much damage.
    Josh

    1. You have it the nail on the head he is launching a subscription service tomorrow for which i would not join for their is plenty on your web site for me,always looking for trainers and jockey combos,surprised that Joe Fanning approx 28% when ridding for Mark Johnson is so high.

      1. Is that new/recent??

        Never read such a pile of shit in my life, when in comes to trainer angles! 🙂 Albeit of course I don’t plough through too many free reports on such matters from elsewhere… my eyes could deceive me but from what i can see in my HRB account, the stats are not even accurate, that’s before you get into how lazy the analysis is. That’s just been cobbled together for the purpose of ‘oh, i need a free report’, in my view. Very poor.

        Two big problems with ‘back all trainers runners’ (in handicaps, or non, or just all) is that a) PL results can be down to a handful of big winners, b) they can be down to a handful of horses, esp for smaller yards like K Slack… having had a quick look…

        Slack… 22 winners since start of 2017 from what I can see in my HRB account when drilling down, 14 of those winners are from just 3 horses. +101 of the profit (out of +139 total) is from 3 monster winners.

        Lacey… +182 of the +236 profit is from 5 big priced winners.

        Shaw… well my stats don’t reflect his in that report at all. Since start of 2014, backing all his handicap runners… 104 from 1182 (not 61/554) for an SP LOSS of -223 points, and AE 0.92.

        C Appleby.. again, I dont recognise the stats… 323/1320 in non handicaps since start of 2014, for an SP loss of -175 points.

        I’m not sure how he gets the figures he does, unless he hasn’t been specific enough with his very basic rules… ie for Shaw, is that just flat,or AW, does it exclude nursery handicaps.

        I mean I may just be losing the plot, and someone else can have a look at the numbers but some of those, as per rules in the link, do not match up. I’m confused!

        I mean that report just isn’t of much use, as a stand alone. Some of the info, that which is accurate, may be decent as a starting point. Lacey is a very good trainer, and is ripe for an angle or three, but just ‘backing all’ is never wise, nor enjoyable and doesn’t make much logical sense. The AE for some of those is around 15% above market expectations, which doesn’t give you much room for manoeuvre and as bookies cotton on will only go down in time. You have to be smarter than that.

        I suspect I’ve got some of my time periods or ‘season’s different to what he’s looked at, but from what I can see I wouldn’t touch some of those as ‘back all’ (appleby/shaw)

        Freebies should try and advertise the best of what you have, or some elements of that, esp as part of launch. That just looks rubbish 🙂

        Josh

        1. Josh

          Thanks , you have just confirmed what I was thinking. How could you back all just blind. Many thanks for your reply appreciate it.

          Back L has been deleted for eternity.

          Mike

  11. Hi Josh, I read a comment on here a few days ago about how good the ‘Handicap Chase System Starting points’ has been from section 3. I have tried to find more info from the key but can’t seem to find anything about it, maybe i’m not looking in the right place. Could you please tell me more about what that is? Regards

    1. I do need to update the Research link and will do so this week. Not sure it’s in there, and need to add a couple of others. It looks at LTO chase winners with a couple of other rules. 30% win SR and 50% win/place. So idea is that would be a good starting point for bets. Plenty of them are short enough. Qualifiers have been posted in test zone for a few months now. Based on results I didn’t think worth following systematically to 1 point win. But prob do well to morning prices.But one member, one of the Chris’ I think, developed their own staking plan to trial, give the high win% and that appears to be going well. I forget the figures but hopefully he’ll chip in. I don’t back them systematically as yet.
      Josh

      1. The criteria are: C3-5 h’caps, not novice h’caps, LTO winners 1-20 days, aged 4-9 yrs; 0-2 previous h’cap chase wins.
        Results update to follow.

        1. Since 9/6: 22 bets, win only = 9 wins; LWS:2; LLS:7
          Backing these to BSP using progressive staking (1% to 2% via 8 steps after loser(s), £10 initial stake) has given a profit on a £1K bank of 18% or £180.
          Level stakes to £10 at ISP gives £100 profit.

  12. I had a question the other day about betting on less exposed runners with some decent pace and the fall off in sr/profit in the last 3/4 wks. Thanks to Martin and Colin for the replies and you may already have answered it anyway but I should have re-phrased my question.
    Is there are tendency of the less exposed to under-perform as the season goes on especially in hc’s?
    Mike

    1. Hi Mike,the handicapper keeps putting extra weight on them when they keep winning to stop them.
      Sir Mark Prescott is a master of beating the handicapper with his improving 3yo’s,however the down side they are heavily backed,another issue is the change in ground conditions can also have an effect in their performance.

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