Members Daily Post: 02/09/18 (complete)

Section 1 (comp) test zone, updates

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Brighton

3.00 – Pour La Victoire (micro dist) H1 I1 G1 7/2 S1 S4 WON 4/1 

4.00 – 

Last Enchantment (all hncps) ES+ I3 4/1 S3A 2nd 

Why We Dream (3yo+) w1 H1 4/1 UP

4.30 – Roy Rocket (all hncps) w2 H1 I1 G1 13/8 S1 S4  UP

 

JUMPS

Worcester

2.15 – Mount Russell (m age) 12/1 S2  UP

4.15 – Chase End Charlie (m age) G3 12/1 S1 S2  UP 

4.45 – 

Balkinstown (hncp hurdle) H1 I3 4/1 UP

Rubys Cube (hncp hurdle) H3 8/1 WON 11/1 

Coisa Blanco (m class) 11/2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 22/233,80p, +4.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +154.5)

None.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Autumn Trainers

E Lavelle 

4.15 W – Talent To Amuse UP

C Longsdon (8/1< guide) 

2.15 W – Djarkevi UP

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

2.15 Worc – King Muro 3rd 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW Report

The Jumps: Who to Follow this Autumn: READ HERE>>>

Do have a flick through. Covers Longsdon, NTD and Lavelle, inc some ‘notes’ at the end, inc how you can focus in on certain qualifiers. I’m anxious to advise following systematically but i’m fairly confident that as a portfolio they’ll do well but in any case should be very good ‘starting points’. Twister made us +45 points or so last Sept/Oct, hopefully he can repeat that and the other two can chip in. 

 

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Geegeez Speed…

NOTE. G1/G3.. has returned for the JUMPS, having had the summer off. This brings Strategy 1 back into play… any jumps qualifier that has a G1 or G3, is 10/1 or bigger on general morning price (qualifies at that point, or at a point you look the evening before) OR is sent off 11.00 or bigger BFSP (this covers the drifters) (that price can be set at any time you wish) All info relating to that strategy can be found within the various links in The Key above. Fingers crossed Jumps S1 can pick up having had an iffy 2018 to date. I’m not sure if that was down to the very bad weather we had or just how it goes. Again that is a low SR strategy and there will be long losing runs. 

The return of Geegeez Speed for jumps will also bring back Jumps S4 (which is on the naughty step) and should mean more S3A# qualifiers, of which we can keep an eye on. 

I’d hope that Jumps S1, S3A# and ‘in form’ horses (w1/w2) will be a decent Jumps portfolio, but time will tell. The latter two have done well over the summer months. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. I would advise caution following Charlie Longsdon because I think he is underperforming this year.

    If you break down his handicap stats 2013 onwards by month you will notice that he is also profitable in June. I tried following this year, results 1/14, -6.

    It’s not just June though, look at his record for the first 8 months of the year. There is a marked decline this year. Handicap strike rate has dropped from 12.73% in 2016, to 10.34% in 2017, to 9.77% this year.

    Even more marked if you look at strike rate all races first 8 months from 2013 on, 11.81%, 14.59%, 14.63%, 11.84%, 12.81%, then this year 9.47%.

    The decline may well stop this month but his horses won’t be carrying any more of my money.

    1. With all such micros you need to monitor them or go minor stakes if you feel that you need to have a go. I appreciate that a one month window is short and so you cannot hang around but these micros, as Josh would say ‘are a way in for you to analyse races further’.

  2. 2 today that i believe cannot be as bad as their last run and on previous form must be in with a shout.
    W. 2-15 Heurtevent 8-1
    W 4-45. Tir Dubh 12-1
    ew singles and double, those are the prices i took this morning but it looks like they might have both come in.

  3. RECENT TIPS
    Festival
    W 2.45 – Flying Tiger on 3rd run but only around Evs

    decent return on the over 3 runs yesterday
    Mike

  4. Firstly, I have a correction to make to my AW results. Seems I forgot to copy across the results for 24 August from the master data into the tips spreadsheet. So amended results are:

    w/c 20 August
    Staked 24pts, Profit -8.25pts, ROI -34.38% or -£41.25 to £5 stakes

    w/c 27 August:
    Staked 49pts, Profit +4.13pts, ROI +8.42% or +£20.63 to £5 stakes

    August:
    Staked 143pts, Profit -15.69pts, ROI -10.97% or -£78.43 to £5 stakes

    First negative month in the last four. Let’s hope it’s a blip. Certainly September started off with a bang for my revised method of selection with two winners at 14/1 and 8/1 BOG to give us 14pts profit after Rule 4 for the day. If that had only come one day earlier we’d have almost broke even for August. Just goes to show it only takes a couple of decent priced winners to turn it around. At least it gives us a kick-start for September.

    I’ll come back later with info on WSR.

      1. Grateful to you, Ken for doing the figures; improvement on those stats, as you project, will put us in a profitable for the year ahead.

        1. One thing I should clarify is that my revised method of selection for the AW only applies to Chelmsford, Lingfield, Southwell and Wolves. The results for those courses are fairly similar. However, Kempton and Newcastle continue to throw up different results, so I have separate strategies for those courses which may still throw up two selections in the same race.

          For the first four courses above, the overall profits from 12 Dec were 88.54pts. Interestingly, if I’d applied my new method of selection over the same period, the profits would’ve been 156.8pts. While this comes with the usual warnings that past performance is no guarantee of future returns, it gives me more confidence going forward.

  5. U.S. racing Tip for Sunday Evening – Saratoga race 10, 10.38 UK time, Win The War, 13/2 BOG now. 1 point each way. If a non runner replace with Moonshine Memories, same bet.

    Good luck.

  6. Josh’s Tips p/l figs up to 2/9 inc.

    Daily
    345 x 1st run, 42 x win @ 12.2% sr, bog + 98.3, sp – 13.75
    310 x 2nd run, 34 x win @ 11% sr, bog + 15.5, sp – 54
    195 x 3rd run, 20 x win @ 10.3% sr, bog + 57.35, sp + 33.85
    108 x 4th run, 18 x win @ 16.7% sr, bog + 12.5, sp – 19
    34 x 5th run, 13 x win @ 38.2% sr, bog + 56.5, sp + 37.5
    21 x 6th run, 5 x win @ 23.8% sr, bog + 39, sp + 32.5
    13 x 7th run, 2 x win @ 15.4% sr, bog + 17, sp + 12.5
    13 x 8th run, 4 x win @ 30.8% sr, bog + 54, sp + 44
    5 x 9th run, 0 x win, – 5
    4 x 10th run, 0 x win – 5

    Festival
    152 x 1st run, 14 x win @ 9.2% sr, bog +145.75, sp + 77
    57 x 2nd run, 12 x win @ 21% sr, bog + 20, sp + 6.45
    25 x 3rd run, 1 x win @ 4% sr, bog – 15.5, sp – 16
    8 x 4th run, 1 win @ 12.5% sr, bog + 5, sp + 2
    5 x 5th run, 0 x win – 5
    3 x 6th run, 2 x win @ 66.7% sr, bog + 16, sp + 8.5

    3m+
    134 x 1st run, 11 x win @ 8.2% sr, bog + 42, sp – 6
    22 x 2nd run, 7 x win @ 31.8% sr, bog + 43.75, sp + 32
    6 x 3rd run, 1 x win @ 16.7% sr, bog + 1, sp – 1
    3 x 4th run, 0 x win, – 3
    3 x 5th run, 1 x win @ 33.3% sr, bog + 12, sp + 9
    1 x 6th run, 0 x win, – 1

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