Members Daily Post: 30/08/18 (complete)

Section 1 (comp) , test zone, York thoughts, Strategy Results Update

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Carlisle

2.10 – 

Crazy Tornado (micro dist) ES+ H3 7/2 S3A 

Bollin Ted (m dist) w1 H1 I1 9/2 S1 

Monsieur Jimmy (m age) I3 G3 9/1 

4.10 – 

Up Sticks And Go (3yo+, + m dist/class/age/runs) ES+ 12/1 S3A 

Dalawyna (3yo+, + m age/runs) H1 I3 G3 4/1  S2 S4 

 

Musselburgh

3.20 – Pammi (m runs) w1 H3 G3 2/1 S5 

3.50 – Zeshov (all hncps) ES+ I3 G3 11/1 S3A# 

 

JUMPS

Fontwell

4.35 – Magical Thomas (all hncps + m dist/age) w1 ES+ H1 I1 6/4 S3A#

5.05 – Code of Law (all hncps/dist move) ES+  9/2 S3A

6.05 – 

The Wicket Chicken (all hncps) ES+ H3 6/1 S3A 

Moorlands George (hncp chase) 9/2 

7.35 – Vexillum (all hncps + hncp hurdle) ES+ 9/2 S3A 

 

Sedgefield

4.50 – 

Hit The Top (m class) ES  25/1 S2A S3

Secret Passenger (m age) 16/1 S2A 

Irish Hawke (m age/90 days) 14 H3 I3 13/2 

6.20 – 

Tiger Trek (hnpc hurdle) 9/2 

Man Look (m age/runs) 14 H3 I1 10/3 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 22/233,80p, +4.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +154.5)

Daily Tips

NONE : Note… I’ve decided to take a few days off from analysing horses/tipping, which may extend through to early next week. My mind is feeling a bit tired on that front and needs a rest/recharge/re-set. I’m not taking the time ‘off’ as such, obviously…the to-do list never gets any shorter, but just on the daily analysis front – section 2. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

Top of the Class

4.10 Carl – Up Sticks And Go 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points

6.50 Sedge- Boss Des Mottes 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

York Ebor Reflections

I’m not going to dwell on my own performance at that meeting, or Goodwood, or indeed on the Daily Tipping front. I’ve probably been thinking too much about such things and hence why I woke up Tuesday morning and had no appetite for the first time in an age to look at a horse race. I’ve got some ideas but I won’t go into detail on these pages and it will be a case of letting results doing the talking hopefully… BUT…there were a couple of areas I looked at with regards to the ‘through the card starting points’… 

1. In Form Trainers (a 14 as per key) 

For York Ebor meeting… an ‘in form’ trainer won 12 of the 25 races, +38 points to 1 point win bets on them all. 12/85 bets. Food for thought there and there’s an argument I need to be putting far more attention on those, inc on the daily front. I’ve mused about that before but need to be a bit stricter with myself. 

In handicaps in-form trainers won 7 of the 11 races. 

2. Multiple ‘Qualifiers’ 

I had a look back through all those horses, per race, that appeared at least 3 times, anywhere across the 4 sections. That was irrelevant of any price guides etc, just simply was the horse written down for any given races 3 or more times against the various approaches. 

21 such qualifiers, 8 winners, +31 points. (8/21, +31) 

So, a couple of areas to focus on moving forward. There is Ayr and Doncaster to come, and i’ll ponder what to do there. There could be nothing in the above but they make logical sense and may help bring more focus when the action is thick and fast at such meetings. 

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Strategy Results Update 

(6th-26th August, and total update for year) 

(6th August 26th August) 

Summary below. 

Summary

TOTAL (strategies) (Section 1):

  • JUMPS – S1 (/) S2 (0/19,1p, -19) S2A (subset of S2… 0/9,0p, -9) S3 (/) S3A (0/8,1p, -8) S3A# (/) S4 (/) S5 (0/3,0p, -3)
  • FLAT 2018: S1 (1/9,6p, -5) S2 (4/33,17p, -2) S3A (4/46,15p, -10.25) S3A# (1/21,10p,-17)  S4 (2/23,12p, -10) S5 (4/20,7p,-0.5) S6 (5/27,13p, +38, +45.7 BFSP)

TEST ZONE

  • Jumps angles: 5/22,7p, +9.5
  • Flat: 3/39,13p, -28.75

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago w1 / w2)

  • Jumps: 2/6,2p, +8.5(w1 : 1/3,1p,+1.5, w2 1/3,1p, +7)
  • Flat: 5/43,13p, -14.5 (w1 1/19,5p, -15, w2 4/24,8p, +0.5)
  • Total: 7/49,15p, -6

 

Updated ‘Section 1 Strategies: where to begin?‘ document HERE>>>

Thoughts…

Since the last update to the doc above on 15th July, it’s really all been about Flat S6, which pulled in +50.4 (early/bog) / +56.3 (BFSP, comm deducted)

Flat S6 2018 Up to 26th Aug: 19/144,44p, +69.4 early/bog, +87.7 (BFSP)

That mirrors 2017’s results and is cementing itself as the best ‘big odds’ strategy. 

Flat S1 + S4 in that time were a combined -28 and some mild concern there. I do wonder whether the increasing smaller fields over the last few weeks, due to the ground/too much racing, has affected the reliability of a ‘treble rated’, with a treble rated in a 12+ runner race more solid than in a 6 runner race say, but i’m thinking aloud there. The placed stats are robust but there is a niggle that these selections, unlike S6, haven’t been offering much value. 

Still, combined, Flat S1, S4, S6 as per the updated link above…

2018 to 26th Aug: 347 bets / 68 wins / 136 wins/places / +90.5 (early/bog) / +108.8 BFSP (*if backing S6 to BFSP)

Jumps S2A is between +23 and +47 for the year to date, depending on if/how you play those, so those 4 combined have had a good year to date. 

Elsewhere and looking ahead to the Jumps

The ‘in form’ horses are looking more promising as each week goes by, those Jumps Section 1 qualifiers that either won on their last start (w1) or two starts back (w2) indicating they are in some sort of form… from 12th Feb 2018 (when I had the idea/started monitoring) to 26th Aug…

Jumps w1: 31/102,37p, +40.25

Jumps w2: 15/80,27p, +29.6

Total: 182 bets / 46 wins / 64 wins|places / +69.85 (early/bog) 

With any luck they continue in that vein through the main jumps season. 

The recent results of Flat S6 are probably most pleasing as they now mirror 2017 and are looking very solid moving forward. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

30 Responses

  1. Really Super!! Great stuff there Josh. Beautiful ride and won with plenty to spare. I swear I saw you jumping around like a lunatic at the line 🙂 Well done to all involved.

        1. Thanks, yep it’s been a good week on that front from the two, now 4 wins between them so can’t really complain! And more to come I hope. All credit to the syndicate boys who plough through the sales catalogues/videos and do plenty of work picking them out. Hard to find a decent/fun syndicate horse for 15-20k but they’ve done it with both now, and getting fillies/mares is a good model as they both have re-sale value down the line as broodmares when the time comes etc. So far so good anyway, but you have to enjoy every run/trip to the races.

          1. Yes, many congratulations Josh and thanks for sharing your views on their chances, my only couple of winners in the last few days!

  2. Spanish Mane Musselburgh Thursday 16:20 1pt e/w Price available 7/1 Ran well in a hot looking class 4 which has produced a number of winners including those behind her and she was out of the handicap. Drops back down to a class 6 here. Fahey has a solid record at the track and is in good form. Has a decent draw and should be able to race prominently.

        1. Back in the winners enclosure again!! You deserve a good sluice down and a packet of polo’s. Well done.

  3. One winner so far today with one race to come. Worst case scenario -1.5pts after Rule 4.

    Chelmsford tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    2.30 Inaam 33/1 (EW) & Makaarim 8/1
    3.30 Inshiraah 5/1
    4.00 Kodiac Express 9/1
    5.00 Indigo Princess 11/1 & Lily Ash 5/1

    1pt win each except where noted EW

    Good Luck

    1. thanks Mick, glad you had a piece. I may have gone a bit silly when I saw her pre race/coat/demeanour (best it had been to my eye) and what the others looked like, but any winnings is always a cherry on top. Just so pleased she got her head in front, as hopefully no stopping her now!

  4. What else can I say Josh but that was really super. You must be feeling so good right now, certainly cheered me up watching. Looked even better than if Liverpool had won the Premier with those celebrations.

    1. ha, well it’s hard to contain the excitement when you’ve been on a journey with a horse like that, a 15 race maiden who you know has all the ability in the world and could certainly be a 120+ horse over sticks but hasn’t shown in, and when you have a niggle about what she may do if/when hitting the front again…she’s just taken time to mature and still has plenty of improvement left, esp mentally, she was looking all over the place when in front there, but please to see her keep going/pull away. Had the top 3 in the weights behind her so beat the right horses again. Fingers crossed that does her the world of good. Ideally she needs a much stronger pace to aim at, and she’ll be even better I suspect as he has a high cruising speed. Anyway, it was a great night. Doesn’t get much better in this game.

  5. Well done to Josh and all who had winners yesterday.

    Another day with plenty of meetings and average fare. At Chelmsford Ryan Moore and SDS are there among others. Qaroun drops in class in the handicap for the Stoute – Moore team in the 2.30. At Musselburgh Dascombe and Kingscote have one in the 3.20, Crimson Skies, which may be worth a go at 10/1?
    At Fontwell Hendo runs two shorties in the 6.35 and the 7.05. He puts a claimer up on Haul Away to take some of the weight off and James Bowen rides the other, . Short priced double? STD is also there and rides for the old man among others. Interestingly Richard Johnson travels to Sedgefield to ride for Gordon Elliott, 5.20 Kuiper Belt and 7.20 Ravenhill. Another short priced double? The Skeltons also have runners up there as does Gavin Cromwell.

    So some things to pick over. Good luck.

  6. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    Ca 4.45 – Iconic Code on 2nd run @ 8
    M 4.55 – Goninodaethat on 2nd run @ 28
    S 5.50 – Running In Heels on 2nd run @ 6/4
    B 4.40 – Mohart on 2nd run @ 9/2
    3m+
    F 7.05 – Exxaro on 2nd run @ 9

    Over 3 runs
    Ca 2.10 – Dutch Artist on 9th run @ 40
    Ca 4.10 – King Robert on 4th run @ 10
    M 3.50 – Chinese Spirit on 4th run @ 6
    GL Mike

  7. Chris M Selections:
    Carlisle:
    14:10 – Crazy Tornado (7/2 gen)
    15:10 – Chookie Dunedin (11/2 gen)

    Fontwell:
    17:05 – Code of Law (6/1 gen)

    Sedgefield:
    16:50 – Irish Hawke (6/1 gen)
    16:50 – West to Crossgales (16/1 gen) ** advised as 0.5pt EW, only if getting 4places otherwise no bet

    Musselburgh
    16:20 – Eva Docc (3/1 gen)

    Hopefully get a turn around today in my selections. good luck with your bets 🙂

    1. Watch the volume on tips guys. Profit is hard enough but with say 30 tips a week you need 6 x 5/1 winners or 3 x 10/1 winners to break even on an ongoing basis. In my experience that rarely happens.
      I am just trying to be helpful and do not want to come over as negative

      1. I appreciate the advice Martin 🙂 anyone who see’s some advice/comment from someone potentially more experienced as negative, then they are a fool and in the long run will not be profitable.
        I am working to reduce my selections by introducing some extra factors into research of my full list of qualifiers. Since posting I have averaged 30.8 bets per week but I’d rather see that around 25 and below.

        Question: I have been using the same method since I started posting and it is profitable but I know I can squeeze more out of my method but whats the best way to do this without compromising something that already works?

        1. What I do is go through my system(s) from start to finish from time to time. I would write it out on the white board and spend some time going through it. I would look at its recent previous results, say last 3 months and analyse what went well and what did not? I would then look at the system again and look for potential tweaks for improvement. If there are any I would implement them, give it a go and come back to it in two weeks.
          As I am a full timer I have time to do this, but it does not take long once you get the hang of it and if you only have one or two systems. I also like to discuss the systems with others, but you have to be careful you do not bore people too much! I am always happy to discuss system functionality either on this blog or by email.
          I have not come across a system that is successful if it has too much volume in it, but I guess that there can be an exception to the rule. I know that Ken has some big ups and downs and works hard at it. Also that some of the other guys on the site have a go to their credit and have started well and then tailed off. But I would not give up on any system until you have tested on the biggest sample possible. Absolute minimum should be 100 bets but that is not enough really. Test and tweak.

        2. thats the million dollar question chris when your system gives you a pool of horses which ones do you select but when you get 5 or more selections each day its tough to be consistent. i would only want 2 or three a day from you

  8. COLINS BETS
    Carlisle
    1.40 King Of The Celts BOG 7/2
    4.10 Beverley Bullet BOG 9/2
    Chelmsford
    4.00 Roussel BOG 2/1
    Musselburgh
    4.20 Bee Machine BOG 9/2
    4.55 Newgate Sioux BOG 7/1

  9. Josh
    Enjoy your ownership it is fantastic,but at times it is such a cruel game.
    Saturday 10th November 1990 Cheltenham, Dai Williams had a horse running called Alaoui which had won its last two races and he was talking about next seasons Scottish National,Brendan Powell was in the plate and was cruising when he fell at the third last and sadly had to be destroyed,will never know how good Alaoui would have been,remember clearly to this day running down the course to the horse to find out nothing could be done.
    Beverley,Dai’s partner at the time had to go to the medical room to see the Doctor for whilst there her heart stopped,thankfully she made a full recover,it was a stressful day over all and thankfully i did not witness another one.

    1. Ah, i’m trying to have a few days off from analysis, sorry John…that part of my racing brain just needs a rest at the moment, back firing early next week on that score. I’m sure some others may have the odd thought! Looks competitive stuff, plenty of big field handicaps.

      1. No worries Josh. Enjoy the break. Refresh the brain. I did read you were considering having a break or indeed taking a break. I too suffer from brain overload, so understand completely.

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