Members Daily Post: 29/08/18 (complete)

Results Update, Section 1 (comp) , test zone, Really Super, other musings

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Catterick

3.30 – 

Regulator (all hncps) 10/1 

Magical Effect (m TJC/class) H1 I3 7/1 S2 S6 

Our Charlie Brown (m class) I3 8/1 

Katheefa (m class) G3 14/1 

4.00 – 

Vallarta (m TJC/dist move/age) H3 G3 12/1 S5 

Spirit of Zebedee (m TJC/dist/class) G3 9/2 

5.00 – 

Meshardal (m TJC/dist/age) H3 I3 11/2 

Indian Pursuit (m TJC/dist) w1  11/1 

 

Musselburgh

3.10 – Royal Brave (all hncps) ES+H1 I3 G3 5/2 S2 S3A# S4

 

Lingfield

None. 

 

JUMPS

Worcester

5.15 – 

Scoop The Pot (all hncps) ES+12/1 S2 S3A 

Henri Parry Morgan (hncp chase) w214 I3 11/1 S2 S5 

Above Board (hncp chase) w2 H1 13/2

Ozzy Thomas (m age) 12/1 S2 

Florrie Boy (all hncps/m days since run) 11/1 S2 

6.15 – Innoko (hncp h) 9/2 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 22/233,80p, +4.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +154.5)

Daily Tips

NONE : Note… I’ve decided to take a few days off from analysing horses/tipping, which may extend through to early next week. My mind is feeling a bit tired on that front and needs a rest/recharge/re-set. I’m not taking the time ‘off’ as such, obviously…the to-do list never gets any shorter, but just on the daily analysis front – section 2. 

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Really Super…

The second of the horses I have a share in, trained by Amy, runs in the 7.45 Worcester…i’m heading down again and staying the night, before heading back to Suffolk for a friend’s 30th Bday party on Sat. I have no idea what price she is as I type, and having said the above, I have had a quick look at the race! It seems open enough with everything having a question or three. I expect her to run a big race. I’m convinced she’ll prove herself to be much better than this mark one day and I hope it’s a case of her being transformed when she eventually gets her head in front. She may well just get better mentally with time also. We shall see. She will race close to the pace here…i’m concerned there are not many/any out and out front runners…Richards attempted to make all over 24f when last seen and may do so again, if here to run it’s race/doesn’t need the run. I want to try and make all with her one day and just gallop them into the ground/don’t give her the opportunity to see another horse. One day. Odds allowing she’ll be worth EW support. Until she actually wins it’s hard to be bullish on that front- she hung in behind the leader the last day for a time after the last. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

3.30 Catt – Inner Circle 12/1 

4.30 Catt – Ad Libitum 4/1 

Jumps 

T Lacey 

6.15 Worc – Vivant 6/1 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

York Ebor Reflections

I’m not going to dwell on my own performance at that meeting, or Goodwood, or indeed on the Daily Tipping front. I’ve probably been thinking too much about such things and hence why I woke up Tuesday morning and had no appetite for the first time in an age to look at a horse race. I’ve got some ideas but I won’t go into detail on these pages and it will be a case of letting results doing the talking hopefully… BUT…there were a couple of areas I looked at with regards to the ‘through the card starting points’… 

1. In Form Trainers (a 14 as per key) 

For York Ebor meeting… an ‘in form’ trainer won 12 of the 25 races, +38 points to 1 point win bets on them all. 12/85 bets. Food for thought there and there’s an argument I need to be putting far more attention on those, inc on the daily front. I’ve mused about that before but need to be a bit stricter with myself. 

In handicaps in-form trainers won 7 of the 11 races. 

2. Multiple ‘Qualifiers’ 

I had a look back through all those horses, per race, that appeared at least 3 times, anywhere across the 4 sections. That was irrelevant of any price guides etc, just simply was the horse written down for any given races 3 or more times against the various approaches. 

21 such qualifiers, 8 winners, +31 points. (8/21, +31) 

So, a couple of areas to focus on moving forward. There is Ayr and Doncaster to come, and i’ll ponder what to do there. There could be nothing in the above but they make logical sense and may help bring more focus when the action is thick and fast at such meetings. 

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Strategy Results Update 

(6th-26th August, and total update for year) 

(6th August 26th August) 

Summary below. 

Summary

TOTAL (strategies) (Section 1):

  • JUMPS – S1 (/) S2 (0/19,1p, -19) S2A (subset of S2… 0/9,0p, -9) S3 (/) S3A (0/8,1p, -8) S3A# (/) S4 (/) S5 (0/3,0p, -3)
  • FLAT 2018: S1 (1/9,6p, -5) S2 (4/33,17p, -2) S3A (4/46,15p, -10.25) S3A# (1/21,10p,-17)  S4 (2/23,12p, -10) S5 (4/20,7p,-0.5) S6 (5/27,13p, +38, +45.7 BFSP)

TEST ZONE

  • Jumps angles: 5/22,7p, +9.5
  • Flat: 3/39,13p, -28.75

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago w1 / w2)

  • Jumps: 2/6,2p, +8.5(w1 : 1/3,1p,+1.5, w2 1/3,1p, +7)
  • Flat: 5/43,13p, -14.5 (w1 1/19,5p, -15, w2 4/24,8p, +0.5)
  • Total: 7/49,15p, -6

 

Updated ‘Section 1 Strategies: where to begin?‘ document HERE>>>

Thoughts…

Since the last update to the doc above on 15th July, it’s really all been about Flat S6, which pulled in +50.4 (early/bog) / +56.3 (BFSP, comm deducted)

Flat S6 2018 Up to 26th Aug: 19/144,44p, +69.4 early/bog, +87.7 (BFSP)

That mirrors 2017’s results and is cementing itself as the best ‘big odds’ strategy. 

Flat S1 + S4 in that time were a combined -28 and some mild concern there. I do wonder whether the increasing smaller fields over the last few weeks, due to the ground/too much racing, has affected the reliability of a ‘treble rated’, with a treble rated in a 12+ runner race more solid than in a 6 runner race say, but i’m thinking aloud there. The placed stats are robust but there is a niggle that these selections, unlike S6, haven’t been offering much value. 

Still, combined, Flat S1, S4, S6 as per the updated link above…

2018 to 26th Aug: 347 bets / 68 wins / 136 wins/places / +90.5 (early/bog) / +108.8 BFSP (*if backing S6 to BFSP)

Jumps S2A is between +23 and +47 for the year to date, depending on if/how you play those, so those 4 combined have had a good year to date. 

Elsewhere and looking ahead to the Jumps

The ‘in form’ horses are looking more promising as each week goes by, those Jumps Section 1 qualifiers that either won on their last start (w1) or two starts back (w2) indicating they are in some sort of form… from 12th Feb 2018 (when I had the idea/started monitoring) to 26th Aug…

Jumps w1: 31/102,37p, +40.25

Jumps w2: 15/80,27p, +29.6

Total: 182 bets / 46 wins / 64 wins|places / +69.85 (early/bog) 

With any luck they continue in that vein through the main jumps season. 

The recent results of Flat S6 are probably most pleasing as they now mirror 2017 and are looking very solid moving forward. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. U.S. Racing Tips – Thistledown race 5, 8.40 UK, Back To Seattle, 4/1 available, 1 point win but if it drifts to 5/1 or better 1 point each way.

    Good luck.

    1. Ok I out and about at present and so cannot see if there are any non runners.

      The back up selection is Pango, race 7 Thistledown, 9.40 UK time, 5/1 available and 1 point each way. If it goes to 4/1 or less then 1 point win. If it is a non runner then it is a no bet day.

      Good luck.

      1. The selection lost, 3rd of six. Up with the pace but faded in the home straight.

        No selection on Wednesday.

  2. No winners but a 25/1 place and one NR reduced the deficit to -2.37pts.

    Four AW races from a mixed card at Lingfield and Kenpton tomorrow. Qualifiers below:
    Lingfield
    2.20 Valentino Sunrise 11/2
    2.50 Chicago Doll 4/1
    3.50 Seprani 5/1

    Kempton
    8.25 Zilara 4/1 & Sassie 4/1
    8.55 Chloellie 9/2 & Spot Lite 10/1

    1pt win each

    Note: The 8.25K is a four runner race with an 8/11 fav. As most of you will know I use a stats based approach with no subjective judgement. Those of you with more knowledge of horses may wish to use that before betting on those two. I will be betting on both and will record them as such.

    Good Luck

  3. Regulator Catterick Wednesday 15:30 1pt e/w
    Dandys Denouement Catterick Wednesday 16:00 1pt e/w
    Turanga Leela Catterick Wednesday 17:00 1pt e/w
    Christopher Wood Kempton Wednesday 18:25 1pt e/w

  4. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 4.00 – Spirit of Zebedee on 2nd run @ 9
    K 7.55 – Know Your Limit on 2nd run @ 14
    3m+
    W 5.15 – Bagad Bihoue on 2nd run @ 6

    Over 3 runs
    C 2.30 – Sellingallthetime on 7th run @ 6
    C 3.30 – Magical Effect on 8th run @ 7
    GL Mike

  5. Chris M Selections:
    Catterick:
    15:30 – Magical Effect (7/1 gen)
    15:30 – Our Charlie Brown (8/1 gen)
    16:00 – Vallarta (10/1 gen)
    17:00 – Maeshardal (6/1 gen)

    Worcester:
    17:15 – Above Board (6/1 gen)
    18:15 – Innoko (9/2 gen)
    19:15 – Casemates Square (40/1 bet365, 33/1 gen) ** Advised as 0.5pt EW

    Kempton:
    19:25 – Sister Celine (6/1 gen)

    Musselburgh:
    14:10 – Thierry (12/1 bet365, betvic, 11/1 gen)

    Lingfield:
    14:20 – Jazz Hands (6/1 gen)

    Could not pick between the two in the 15:30 @ Catterick, as a side bet I am having a small stake reverse forecast on the two selections. Won’t be included in my P/L figures.

    Good luck with your bets today 🙂

    1. Well that was possibly one of my worst betting day’s in a long time. Looking back at some of my selections I really can see the flaws. Need to get my head back in the game!

        1. You are totally right Paul. Number of things I did wrong today compared to what I normally do which meant the selections ended up too many. For one the two selections in the 3:30 at Catterick was against what I normally do. If I have 2 selections in one race I would normally say no bet. Lessons learned

  6. COLINS BETS
    Lingfield
    2.20 Valentino Sunrise BOG 11/4
    5.25 Bamako Du Chatelet BOG 4/1
    Musselburgh
    3.40 Lucky Beggar

  7. It is raining heavily here in Kent and I am not that far from Lingfield where the turf and surf (sand) meeting takes place. It is expected to cease raining circa 1 PM. SDS and some of the other top guys head there. It looks a tough meeting and no value I can see. Hugh Taylor puts up Duke Of York in the 2.20 and I got 12/1 on the exchanges on it.

    At Mussleburgh Dascombe and Kingscote are there with two runners – 2.10 Starfighter, 25/1+ and 2.40 Mac O’Polo, 10/3. Maybe worth a go on Starfighter at that price?? Paul Hanagan rides for Fahey.

    At Worcester Richard Johnson and Pipe and Scu and the Twiston Davies are there, as well as Really Super. Paul Nicholls runs Bahad Bihoue, 7/1, in the 5.15 and puts up a 7LB claimer to reduce its top weight. Richard Fahey has an unbeaten hurdler going in the 6.45, Chief Justice, 15/8 and Brian Hughes rides. What can go wrong?

    At Catterick Saeed Bin Suroor has a runner, Perisher in the 3.30, 5/1. The whole meeting looks hard and I will leave it alone.

    Good luck today, it looks hard.

  8. Hi Josh,

    Thanks for the updates on the results much appreciated. However, I was wondering if at anytime soon you would be making your festival results spreadsheet available to members?

    MikeC,

    Joseph Buchdahl in his book How To Find A Black Cat In A Coal Cellar – The Truth About Sports Tipsters presents a method for using the t-Distribution to estimate the number of bets required to achieve a level of statistical significance for any yield/betting odds pairing.

    1. Hi Chris,
      I’m in discussions with a member who is pulling one together for me, from work they’d already done, and will get that out as and when I have it etc. It will then be kept updated, as will one for the daily tips. At the moment I only keep results in the form as presented in section 2, which i’m aware is too basic.
      Josh

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