Members Daily Post: 25/08/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

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Festival Tips

3.40 York

Whiskey Sour – 2 point win – 7/1 (bet365/BetB) 13/2 (WH/BetfS/UniB/Coral)

Mountain Bell – 1 point win – 22/1 (BetfS/PP/BetB) 20/1 (gen)

Dylan Mouth – 1 point – 22/1 (Lad/BetB) 20/1 (gen) (38.00 on machine as of 07.43, BFSP an option,but hard to know, I’ve taken 38.00)

2.25 York

Making Miracles – 2 points win – 8/1 (bet365) 15/2 (gen) 

Berkshire Blue – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 

Polish – 1 point win – 28/1 (lad) 25/1 (gen) 

that will be all for tips today, 08.40, write ups on way…

3.40…

I have a train to catch to York races at 10.25 so i’d best get a move on… I haven’t diverted from the stats/trends shortlists below, which have worked well this week, just not my final decision making but that’s the way it goes….

Whiskey Sour… this is a high class horse who may still be a couple of points too big here. He ticks all the boxes on the trends, is drawn from where plenty of winners have come, and he won’t be far away. That Ascot run was impressive given he carried top weight and indicated he can more than compete in this. I don’t think he stays that distance on the flat and is more suited to 1m6f. He seemed to handle the ground just fine there and it’s possible his class gets him through on soft and he prefers top of the ground. He wins at Galway in a way you shouldn’t – held up out the back and making a challenge wide around the whole field. He has stamina, class and a turn of foot. Mullins is in mad form again and i’m looking for him to dig me out of a hole – he usually does at a Festival, so here’s hoping! They’ve booked a top jockey and I hope he gets him out and tracks the pace, in the right spot to pounce. He won’t be found wanting for stamina here and I expect a very big run.

Mountain Bell… the first of two pokes that show up well on the trends and I couldn’t help myself. By the trainer’s own admission this one has been hard to train but he’s had a good run with her at home in recent weeks and i sense this may be the best he’s had her- we shall see. She has a touch of class, and in big fields. She runs as if she will relish a race like this and they enlist a 5lb claimer- claiming jockeys have done very well in this in recent years, which I suppose makes sense the more compressed the handicap – there is only 10lb between top and bottom here and it’s more a case of who handles conditions best I think, rather than needing to be thrown in. This one is still in the ‘could be anything’ category and given the boxes she ticks below, and connections, I thought worth a go at a price.

Dylan Mouth…as i did with this one…he’d be a stats buster on a couple of angles but hits the initial stats and amazingly this is only his second run in a handicap- he hacked up in his first a few starts back at Haydock in a decent race and it’s hard to say the handicapper has him. He is a multiple winning group horse, inc G1s in Italy – while they may not be the strongest, this horse clearly has class and talent, as he showed the last day. I think he’ll appreciate this big field and a strong pace to aim at/weave through, and he has a master in the saddle. There is a niggle this trip may stretch him at a proper pace, but at the odds I thought there was enough there to roll the dice.

Of the rest…well i’ll mention two more, conscious as always it may not included the winner… Nakeeta is my clanger horse, much like Titus… I crossed him off and replaced him with Dylan Mouth, lured in by the odds. I don’t think it’s impossible he can win back to back races here, but he is up in the weight from last year and only just got up. He travelled well the last day as if he was coming to the boil and this has no doubt been the plan. He is the solid EW bet in the race I think but decided there will be a few better than him today. I could be wrong and he will look a danger at some stage. He ran well in the Melbourne Cup and has a great record over this distance and at the track. And of course there is Stratum, who it may turn out I was foolish to take on… but… in the context of his price, i’m not sure this drop in trip will suit him and he also has his draw to overcome. Low hasn’t been the place to be in this race and nor has it this week. In these big fields I think all have won coming down the centre or nearside, with those on the far side struggling. Winston may be able to angle him out as they turn for home and get up the middle, but it will be tough. He may well still be thrown in and his class will get him through. He is a worthy fav but I had to take him on.

The Melrose…

I’ve stuck to the stats again here…Making Miracles…well I’m expecting a massive run and get the feeling this may have been the plan for most of the season, if you believe the words of Charlie Johnston anyway. I think he’d have won at Ascot if he were tracking the pace – you had to be handy in that race but he was stuck wide, shuffled back, but made up plenty of ground up the middle late on. He hacked up over this trip at Haydock and stepped back in trip at Goodwood, which didn’t suit. He still ran well but got in a pace duel on the front and was tapped for toe. He looks a galloper and SDS is back in the saddle. I think he may try and make all here, and just keep going. Kingscote may be up there but he’s drawn wider and they step their’s up in trip, so may be more patient. He won’t be far away here and his course form was another plus.

Berkshire Blue… shows up well on the stats and the yard are in fine form. He has more of a ‘could be anything’ profile and runs as if he will relish every yard of this trip. He did everything wrong the last day and somehow still won, all credit to the ‘Magic Man’ there in the plate. He could be some talent and was still very green there. I just wanted him onside just in case this is a very smart horse in the making, which I have a hunch he may be.

Polish… a poke here but a big price and he’s on the trends list… he didn’t handle the track LTO according to his trainer but connections think he will relish this trip. Again he’s in the ‘could be anything’ category, like most/all in here I suppose, but he could step forward here and relish conditions. I was happy to have a poke at a big price.

of the rest…well I narrowed this down to the three tips, Mekong, and Corgi… the latter is the ‘clanger’ horse in this I think (unless the Dascombe horse relishes the trip and handles the ground!) but at least he’s not double figures… i’m not 100% sure this trip will suit and i’m yet to be convinced with him on fast ground. I preferred the Johnston horse and we shall see if i’ve got that right, both trainers know what it takes to win this race. If he relishes this trip, like Titus did when stepping up, I may be watching this through my fingers!

That’s the lot for today.

Best of luck with any bets,

Josh

Shortlist: No 10/10 stats so these may miss the target but focusing on those aged 5+ who had won over 1m6f+ leaves 10, so cutting the field in half..

Stratum / Blakney Point / Whiskey Sour / Nakeeta / Dylan Mouth / Platitude / Montaly / My Reward / Mountain Bell / Fun Mac

Ignoring those from that list that raced in Ireland LTO (only Whiskey S) and crossing off those that did not run at C2 LTO, leaves 6…

Stratum / Whiskey Sour / Nakeeta / Platitude / My Reward / Mountain Bell

There are only 10lb between them here and that class stat may go in time, as it may be you need a horse with group form in time, we shall see.

Shortlist: those moving up 1f or more and moving in class by max up1, leaves 8…

Corgi / Making Miracles / Berkshire Blue / Proschema / Candidate / Polish / Sergio Leone. 

Those carrying 8-7 or more leaves 6…

Corgi / Making Miracles / Berkshire Blue / Proschema  / Polish /