Members Daily Post: 25/08/18 (complete)

Melrose+ Ebor Tips / Section 1 (comp), test zone, York Day 4 pointers + stats/trends shortlists x2

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Goodwood

3.15 – 

Masham Star (all hncps/3yo+) 20/1 

Vale of Kent (all hncps/3yo+) H1 I3 G3 6/1 S2 S4 S6 

Lake Volta (all hncps/3yo+) 22/1 

Aces (micro age) w2 w1 12/1 

Flaming Spear (m runs) 13/2 

4.25 – Grand Inquisitor (m age) I1 G3 15/2 S2 S6 

5.00 – Darksideoftarnside 5/1 

 

Newmarket July 

3.30 – 

Sofia’s Rock (m dist move) H3 G3 7/1 S5

Star of The East (m dist move) w2 10/1 

4.35 – Hackney Road (all hncps/3yo+) w2 H1 10/3 

 

York

3.40 – My Reward (m runs) 80/1 

4.50 – Alfarris (all hncps 5 yrs) w1 14,30 ES+ H1 I3 6/1 S2 S3A# S6

 

Windsor

4.45 – Reckless Wave (all hncps 5 yrs, all) 14 ES+ I3 11/1 S3A

7.15 – Arendelle (all hncps 5 yrs, all) 14 G1 9/2 

7.45 – Optimum Time (m age) w2 H3 G3 9/2 S5 

 

Redcar

7.00 – Fayez (m age) ES+I1  8/1 S3A S6 

 

JUMPS

Cartmel 

2.45 – Chantara Rose (all hncps)  10/1 S2 

4.30 – 

Dotties Dilema (all hncps) H3 I3 4/1 

Deadly Move (all hncps) 10/1 S2 

5.05 – Wells De Lune (all hncps/m age) H1 I1 11/4 

5.35 – Captain Brown (m TJC)  14/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 22/229,80p, +8.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +162.5)

Daily Tips

None.

 

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Festival Tips

3.40 York

Whiskey Sour – 2 point win – 7/1 (bet365/BetB) 13/2 (WH/BetfS/UniB/Coral)

Mountain Bell – 1 point win – 22/1 (BetfS/PP/BetB) 20/1 (gen)

Dylan Mouth – 1 point – 22/1 (Lad/BetB) 20/1 (gen) (38.00 on machine as of 07.43, BFSP an option,but hard to know, I’ve taken 38.00)

 

2.25 York

Making Miracles – 2 points win – 8/1 (bet365) 15/2 (gen) 

Berkshire Blue – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 

Polish – 1 point win – 28/1 (lad) 25/1 (gen) 

 

that will be all for tips today, 08.40, write ups on way…

 

3.40…

I have a train to catch to York races at 10.25 so i’d best get a move on… I haven’t diverted from the stats/trends shortlists below, which have worked well this week, just not my final decision making but that’s the way it goes….

Whiskey Sour… this is a high class horse who may still be a couple of points too big here. He ticks all the boxes on the trends, is drawn from where plenty of winners have come, and he won’t be far away. That Ascot run was impressive given he carried top weight and indicated he can more than compete in this. I don’t think he stays that distance on the flat and is more suited to 1m6f. He seemed to handle the ground just fine there and it’s possible his class gets him through on soft and he prefers top of the ground. He wins at Galway in a way you shouldn’t – held up out the back and making a challenge wide around the whole field. He has stamina, class and a turn of foot. Mullins is in mad form again and i’m looking for him to dig me out of a hole – he usually does at a Festival, so here’s hoping! They’ve booked a top jockey and I hope he gets him out and tracks the pace, in the right spot to pounce. He won’t be found wanting for stamina here and I expect a very big run.

Mountain Bell… the first of two pokes that show up well on the trends and I couldn’t help myself. By the trainer’s own admission this one has been hard to train but he’s had a good run with her at home in recent weeks and i sense this may be the best he’s had her- we shall see. She has a touch of class, and in big fields. She runs as if she will relish a race like this and they enlist a 5lb claimer- claiming jockeys have done very well in this in recent years, which I suppose makes sense the more compressed the handicap – there is only 10lb between top and bottom here and it’s more a case of who handles conditions best I think, rather than needing to be thrown in. This one is still in the ‘could be anything’ category and given the boxes she ticks below, and connections, I thought worth a go at a price.

Dylan Mouth…as i did with this one…he’d be a stats buster on a couple of angles but hits the initial stats and amazingly this is only his second run in a handicap- he hacked up in his first a few starts back at Haydock in a decent race and it’s hard to say the handicapper has him. He is a multiple winning group horse, inc G1s in Italy – while they may not be the strongest, this horse clearly has class and talent, as he showed the last day. I think he’ll appreciate this big field and a strong pace to aim at/weave through, and he has a master in the saddle. There is a niggle this trip may stretch him at a proper pace, but at the odds I thought there was enough there to roll the dice.

Of the rest…well i’ll mention two more, conscious as always it may not included the winner… Nakeeta is my clanger horse, much like Titus… I crossed him off and replaced him with Dylan Mouth, lured in by the odds. I don’t think it’s impossible he can win back to back races here, but he is up in the weight from last year and only just got up. He travelled well the last day as if he was coming to the boil and this has no doubt been the plan. He is the solid EW bet in the race I think but decided there will be a few better than him today. I could be wrong and he will look a danger at some stage. He ran well in the Melbourne Cup and has a great record over this distance and at the track. And of course there is Stratum, who it may turn out I was foolish to take on… but… in the context of his price, i’m not sure this drop in trip will suit him and he also has his draw to overcome. Low hasn’t been the place to be in this race and nor has it this week. In these big fields I think all have won coming down the centre or nearside, with those on the far side struggling. Winston may be able to angle him out as they turn for home and get up the middle, but it will be tough. He may well still be thrown in and his class will get him through. He is a worthy fav but I had to take him on.

The Melrose…

I’ve stuck to the stats again here…Making Miracles…well I’m expecting a massive run and get the feeling this may have been the plan for most of the season, if you believe the words of Charlie Johnston anyway. I think he’d have won at Ascot if he were tracking the pace – you had to be handy in that race but he was stuck wide, shuffled back, but made up plenty of ground up the middle late on. He hacked up over this trip at Haydock and stepped back in trip at Goodwood, which didn’t suit. He still ran well but got in a pace duel on the front and was tapped for toe. He looks a galloper and SDS is back in the saddle. I think he may try and make all here, and just keep going. Kingscote may be up there but he’s drawn wider and they step their’s up in trip, so may be more patient. He won’t be far away here and his course form was another plus.

Berkshire Blue… shows up well on the stats and the yard are in fine form. He has more of a ‘could be anything’ profile and runs as if he will relish every yard of this trip. He did everything wrong the last day and somehow still won, all credit to the ‘Magic Man’ there in the plate. He could be some talent and was still very green there. I just wanted him onside just in case this is a very smart horse in the making, which I have a hunch he may be.

Polish… a poke here but a big price and he’s on the trends list… he didn’t handle the track LTO according to his trainer but connections think he will relish this trip. Again he’s in the ‘could be anything’ category, like most/all in here I suppose, but he could step forward here and relish conditions. I was happy to have a poke at a big price.

of the rest…well I narrowed this down to the three tips, Mekong, and Corgi… the latter is the ‘clanger’ horse in this I think (unless the Dascombe horse relishes the trip and handles the ground!) but at least he’s not double figures… i’m not 100% sure this trip will suit and i’m yet to be convinced with him on fast ground. I preferred the Johnston horse and we shall see if i’ve got that right, both trainers know what it takes to win this race. If he relishes this trip, like Titus did when stepping up, I may be watching this through my fingers!

That’s the lot for today.

Best of luck with any bets,

Josh

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat

Top of the Class

3.15 Good – Lake Volta / Vale of Kent 

The Doyler

1.40 Newm – Riviera Nights

Jumps

D McCain (14/1< guide) 

3.55 Cart – Fit For Fifty

5.35 Cart – Wazowski 

Irish Angles – De Bromhead

4.20 Killarn – Alisier Dirlande / Full Cry / Monbeg Chit Chat

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

York Day 4 : through the card pointers

1.50

Trainer Race Pointers

Mustashry-Zaaki (2/16,6p)

Lord Glitters (2/4,3p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Master The World / Morando / Mustashry/Seniority/Zaaki

Top Rated Runners

Lord Glitters/Threading/Master The World

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers

Trainers

Seniority

Mustashry (4/1<)

Zaaki (4/1<)

Lord Glitters (8/1<)

Jockeys

Zaaki (8/1<)

Threading

Lord Glitters (8/1<)

Owners

Mustashry

 

2.25

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Proschema/Mekong/Berkshire Blue/Coolongolook/Heart of Grace/Ghostwatch

Top Rated Runners

Corgi/Proschema/Corgi

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers

Trainers

Ghostwatch

Mekong (4/1<)

Proschema

Jockeys

Ghostwatch (16/1<)

Mekong (8/1<)

Owners

Ghostwatch (9/1<)

 

3.00

Trainer Race Pointers

Donjuan Triumphant (3/7,4p)

Expert Eye (2/6,3p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Donjuan Triumphant / Expert Eye

Top Rated Runners

Expert Eye/Nebo/Tabarrak

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers

Trainers

So Beloved-Suedois (8/1<)

Expert Eye (4/1<)

Jockeys

Expert Eye (8/1<)

Suedois (8/1<)

Arbalet

Owners

Tabarrak

 

3.40

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Weekender/Muntahaa/Scotland/Lord Yeats/Montaly/Teodoro/Platitude/Whiskey Sour/Stratum

Top Rated Runners

Whiskey Sour/Nakeeta/Toedoro

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers

Trainers

Teodoro

Jockeys

Stratum

Owners

4.15

Trainer Race Pointers

Vintage Brut (2/4,4p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Street Pride / World Order

Top Rated Runner

Sabre/Glory Fighter/Sabre

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers

Trainers /

Jockeys

Chapelli

Owners

 

4.50

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Alfarris/Pivoine

Top Rated Runners

Alfarris/Another Touch – Awake My Soul/Dolphin Vista

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers

Trainers

Mooltazem

Jockeys

Owners

5.20

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

/

Top Rated Runners

Savalas/Airglow / Main Desire

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers

Trainers

Savalas

Jockeys/

Owners/

*

Race Stats/Trends

Ebor Handicap

10/189,39p

9/10 aged 5+ (3 or 4, 1/77,13p)

8/10 had won over 1m6f+ (2/84,12p had not)

6/6 (of UK runners) running at same class as LTO (0/58,11p moving in class)

 

Other

  • Stall 1-5: 0/45,8p)
    • 6/10 drawn 15-18: 6/37,7p)
  • 5/10 won by 3 or 5lb claimers (3lb 1/10,3p, 5lb 4/14,4p)

Track LTO

  • Ascot: 3/37,7p
  • Galway: 3/13,6p
  • 1x: York/Newmarket July/Leop/Ling
  • Goodwood: 0/51,7p

Trainers

  • Saeed Bin Suroor: 2/11,3p
  • 1x: G Elliot/W Mullins/J Murtagh/J Tuite/I Jardine/A Martin/B Ellison
  • M Johnston: 0/10,0p

 

Shortlist: No 10/10 stats so these may miss the target but focusing on those aged 5+ who had won over 1m6f+ leaves 10, so cutting the field in half..

Stratum / Blakney Point / Whiskey Sour / Nakeeta / Dylan Mouth / Platitude / Montaly / My Reward / Mountain Bell / Fun Mac

Ignoring those from that list that raced in Ireland LTO (only Whiskey S) and crossing off those that did not run at C2 LTO, leaves 6…

Stratum / Whiskey Sour / Nakeeta / Platitude / My Reward / Mountain Bell

There are only 10lb between them here and that class stat may go in time, as it may be you need a horse with group form in time, we shall see.

 

Melrose Handicap

10/161,37p

10/10 Up 1f or more from last run (same or down in trip: 0/37,5p)

9/10 carried 8-7 or more (8-6 or less, 1/60,8p)

9/9 UK runners (ignore Irish) were moving up in class a max 1f (same, up1, or drop) (up2+, 0/49,4p)

9/9 UK runners ran in class 1,2 or 3 LTO

6/10 had 2 handicap wins (6/40,12p, +71)

Track LTO

  • Goodwood: 4/32,10p
  • Ripon: 2/9
  • Ascot: 2/24
  • Newmarket: 1/13,4p
  • Galway: 1/1

Trainers

  • 1x: Haggas/Martin/Palmer/C Appleby/L Cumani /M Johston/H Morrison

 

Shortlist: those moving up 1f or more and moving in class by max up1, leaves 8…

Corgi / Making Miracles / Berkshire Blue / Proschema / Candidate / Polish / Sergio Leone. 

Those carrying 8-7 or more leaves 6…

Corgi / Making Miracles / Berkshire Blue / Proschema  / Polish /

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

36 Responses

  1. Going early tonight as I’m off out. Chelmsford tomorrow. Qualifiers below:
    1.55 Pair Of Savannas 10/1
    2.30 Cadeau Magnifique 5/1 & Coverham 11/2
    3.35 Janabiya 10/1

    1pt win each

    Prices correct as of 17:31. There may be extra qualifiers later. Will post later or tomorrow morning.

    Good Luck

  2. Rather than look at the puzzle that is York I’ve looked away to the lesser meetings.
    Ok Newmarket may smart at that but for tomorrow it is the smaller meeting.

    5.10 Newm – Diamond Lady 7/1 e/w
    Nose second in this race last year and opposes the winner from the same race again but this time receiving a few lbs.
    It’s following the same m.o. from last year too, racing 8 days after running over 6f but now back to 5f.

    Onto the seaside now
    7.00 Redcar – Roll on Rory 11/1 e/w
    A case of been there done that. Cl3 winner earlier this year off the same OR as today.
    Changed trainer since last run to J Camacho and at first glance she doesn’t have a great record with those runners but upon closer inspection over the last 5 years where the horse was having its 1st run after the trainer change and then running at Redcar is 2/3.
    G Lee rides which I class as a +

  3. Another Touch York Saturday 16:50 1pt e/w Price available 12/1
    Roll On Rory Redcar Saturday 19:00 1pt e/w Price available 12/1
    Totally Magic Redcar Saturday 19:30 1pt e/w Price available 16/1

  4. RECENT TIPS
    Daily/Note
    Ch 2.30 – Cadeau Magnifique on 2nd run @ 5
    Ca 2.45 – Chantara Rose on 2nd run @ 10
    R 7.30 – Totally Magic on 2nd run @ 9
    Festival
    Ca 5.35 – Always Resolute on 2nd run @ 6
    G 3.15 – Mukalal on 2nd run @ 25
    G 5.00 – Tuff Rock on 2nd run @ 6
    K 2.35 – Smitty Bacall on 3rd run @ 10
    Y 3.40 – Whiskey Sour on 3rd run @ 13/2
    Y 5.20 – Savalas on 2nd run @ 9/2
    3m+
    K 4.20 – Peregrine Run on 2nd run @ 9

    Over 3 runs
    Daily/Note
    G 3.15 – Daniels Flyer on 4th run @ 16
    R 8.00 – Cheeni on 5th run @ 50 (I’ll do that e/w)
    W 6.45 – Red Alert on 7th run @ 22
    Festival
    K 4.20 – Grand Partner on 5th run @ 10
    GL Mike

  5. One of NTF’s Summer Stunners runs today.

    Killarney 4.20 – Peregrine Run. Currently around 6/1, some bookies paying 4 places for this race, so shop around if having a bet.

  6. COLINS BETS
    Newmarket
    2.50 Highland Reel BOG 5/2
    Goodwood
    Truth Or Dare BOG 18/1
    Redcar
    7.30 Fieldsman BOG 8/1
    7.30 Abushamah BOG 12/1
    Windsor
    7.45 Sir Plato BOG 5/1

  7. Toyed with going to York today but decided to go to Huddersfield v Cardiff where there’ll be far less pissheads, and have a leisurely afternoon at Beverley tomorrow instead. Any thoughts at Bev would be much appreciated.
    Mike

  8. Value…..
    CARTMEL 2.45 GOLD CHAIN far too big.

    Horse seems to have lost his way which may be the case but its got a few things going for it. This jockey got on well with this horse in the past and thought it strange with the jockey change. Horse has also ran well here in the past. The horse also makes a quick reappearance which also ties in well with rest to win ratios. Big price with a few ticks in the box. Sire does well in this class here too. distance stats a bit of a let down…but hey its 80s -100s. Check your alternative markets.

    1. These tips are superb, thanks again. Just wondering why only the one tip/ day? Just target one race or just the most confident bet? Not that I’m complaining it’s working very well so far!

      1. When the U.S. Tips started I agreed with the guy who does the race analysis in Canada some parameters so that we could do something useful within the time constraints we both have. So i thought it best to analyse one race per day from three initial picks and then go through it and come up with a bet that was value. Some days no bet.
        Going OK so far. I did hear that there was a plan for Mendelsson to lead and the selection likes to go with the pace. The pace was very good and the others got caught cold. Sometimes things work out.

  9. Sums up my bloody week. In Spain, and managed to get my bets on, only for half of them to be still running!!

    1. Hi Titus, everything is fine the security certificate ran out,contacted my son to investigate for Firefox would not let me on,take it has been sorted for now have access,he also found Josh on Twitter, so today looks like a write off.
      Recent tips another 2 winners yesterday,any bets today if so can you put them on here.

      COLINS BETS

      No bet

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