Free Daily Post: York Day 3 (complete)

 

Re-cap…

A poor first two days but still plenty of time to turn it around! Two never nearer fifth places were the best I could manage on what was a poor day.  There is no hiding place in this game and i’ll try and up my efforts. Moving on…below are the Day 3 pointers, as well as some stats/trends for the 1.55.

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BIG RACE TIPS 

(2018 +164.5 points)

1.55 York

Pacify – 1 point win– 12/1 (bet365/BV/BetB) 11/1 (gen)

Never Surrender – 1 point win– 20/1 (gen)

that’s all for today,write up to follow

 

Pacify… this horse just seems to come alive around here and appears to save his best form for the track.  It looks like 12f is his trip now, he’s unexposed over it, and  is reunited with Danny Tudhope. According to his trainer he had issues for all of last year, and plenty of the yard’s horses were sick also I believe. Beckett’s horses have been running better in recent weeks and I thought he was sure to give me a run for my money around here. I hope Tudhope doesn’t have him too far back as there is a chance this turns into a bit of a dash, but if it does his 10f speed should help. There is more to come from him I think and I’d be surprised if he wasn’t in there pitching come the business end. 

Never Surrender… with any luck an apt name given how my punting week is going to date. This one appears on my trends shortlist below, the yard are in form, he won LTO and I thought worth a stab at 20s. He does need to step forward, and may well not be good enough, but he stepped back up to 12f last time and settled into his race better than he had been doing – he does have a tendency to ruin his chance by pulling but there was no evidence of that LTO as he scooted clear. On only his 4th start over 12f and 3rd on decent ground, I thought he was one of the more interesting ones at a big price. 

dangers…First Nation is clearly one to fear and you suspect this has been the plan. There should be more to come this season but he can be held up and it’s his first run here. He may take to the place really well and his yard couldn’t be in better form, but 4s is short enough for me in a race like this. I looked at Titus for an age and will be a tad annoyed if he wins but he does have to prove his stamina, stepping up in trip, and in that context, in a race like this, I wasn’t sure 11s or so was overly generous. The 40 day break niggled me also but the yard are in form and so was the horse when last seen. I was on the fence as to whether he’d improve for the step up so we shall see. If he relishes it he could win this well enough. Kelly’s Dino is interesting from a pace perspective…i’m not sure there is loads of it in here and he will be in the right spot. However that Ayr run put me off a bit and he needs to prove it in a race like this. I’d fancy the fav to overturn that Ascot run as you’d expect him to come on for it, and that run was a tactical affair. Of those around the 12/1 mark I preferred Pacify and we shall see if that’s right. Reshoun is a big priced trends qualifier but enough questions for me. He may appreciate this return to a more galloping track but he does need the headgear to work wonders, which isn’t impossible. It would be a bit frustrating were he to win at those odds but enough questions for me. 

As always there’s a chance I haven’t mentioned the winner. I could do with one this week, so fingers crossed!

Best of luck with any bets. 

 

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York Ebor Meeting

York Ebor Meeting Stats Report: Read HERE>>>

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York Day 3 Pointers

1.55

Trainer Race Pointers

Melting Dew (3/18,10p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Melting Dew

First Nation

Titus

Never Surrender

Top Rated Runners

Melting Dew /Moonmeister / Kellys Dino

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 

Trainers

First Nation

Melting Dew (4/1<)

Mister Belvedere – Archie’s Affair

Caliburn

Moonmeister

Jockeys

First Nation (6/1<)

Pacify (8/1<)

Caliburn (14/1<)

Owners

First Nation (9/1<)

 

2.55

Trainer Race Pointers

Desert Skyline (2/6,3p)

Red Vernon (3/13,6p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Stradivarius

Count Octave

Desert Skyline

Max Dynamite

Top Rated Runners

Stradivarius/Count Octave / Stradivarius

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 

Trainers

Jockeys

Desert Skyline (16/1<)

Stradivarius

Owners

 

3.00

Trainer Race Pointers

Emaraaty (3/12,5p)

The Irish Rover (2/7,6p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Chuck Willis

Legends of War

Shine So Bright

Showout

Top Rated Runners

Shine So Bright/Cosmic Law / Shine So Bright

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 

Trainers

Emaraaty Ana

Cosmic Law – Space Traveller

Jockeys

Shine So Bright (16/1<)

Amaraaty Ana

Semoum (14/1<)

Owners

 

3.35

Trainer Race Pointers

Mabs Cross (2/3,2p)

Washington DC – Battle of Jericho – Declarationofpeace – Sioux Nation (2/8,4p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Battash

Blue Point

Judicial

Abel Handy

Top Rated Runners

Battaash/ Battaash / Blue Point

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 

Trainers

Muthmir

Blue Point

Mabs Cross

Jockeys

Judicial (14/1<)

Owners

Blue Point (9/1<)

Battaash

 

4.15

Trainer Race Pointers

None.

Trainers ‘in form’

Barrys

Indomitable

Sevenhillsofrome

Top Rated Runners

Sky Defender/ Sky Defender / Beat Le Bon

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 

Trainers

Argo – George Mallory

Sevenhillsofrome

Jockeys

Sky Defender

Owners/

 

4.50

Trainer Race Pointers

None.

Trainers ‘in form’

Finniston

Urban Aspect

Top Rated Runners

Crack On Crack On/ Mystic Flight / Crack On Crack On

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 

Trainers

Queens Sargent – Commander Han

Finniston Farm

Silver Quartz – Corrosive

Jockeys

Nicklaus (16/1<)

Owners/

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Stats/trends race

1.55

1m4f Handicap

11/164,36 p (there was a dead heat in 2015, so 11 winners over last 10 renewals)

 

11/11 had 0-1 win over distance (2+ : 0/40,6p)

10/11 had 1-4 places in handicaps (inc wins) (10/79,23p) (1/85,13p outside this)

9/11 had 11 or fewer career runs (9/57,17p)

9/10 had 1 or 2 handicap wins (9/78,19p) (2/86,17p outside this)

8/11 aged 4 (8/69,19p)

 

Other

10/11 sent off 12/1 or shorter (14/1+ : 1/93,10p)

Track LTO

• Ascot (3/39,13p)
• Newm July (3/18,4p)
• Haydock (2/18,3p)

Trainers

• Sir M Stoute: 3/9,6p
• 1 x: Saeed bin Suroor/D OMeara/T Easterby/C Hills/M Johnston/L Cumani/R Varian

 

Shortlist:

0-1 wins over the distance, 1-4 places in handicaps, leaves just 4…

Never Surrender / Reshoun / Titus / Archies Affaire

11 or fewer career runs: Reshoun / Titus / Archies Affaire

1-2 handicap wins: Never Surrender / Reshoun

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