Re-cap…
A poor first two days but still plenty of time to turn it around! Two never nearer fifth places were the best I could manage on what was a poor day. There is no hiding place in this game and i’ll try and up my efforts. Moving on…below are the Day 3 pointers, as well as some stats/trends for the 1.55.
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BIG RACE TIPS
(2018 +164.5 points)
1.55 York
Pacify – 1 point win– 12/1 (bet365/BV/BetB) 11/1 (gen)
Never Surrender – 1 point win– 20/1 (gen)
that’s all for today,write up to follow
Pacify… this horse just seems to come alive around here and appears to save his best form for the track. It looks like 12f is his trip now, he’s unexposed over it, and is reunited with Danny Tudhope. According to his trainer he had issues for all of last year, and plenty of the yard’s horses were sick also I believe. Beckett’s horses have been running better in recent weeks and I thought he was sure to give me a run for my money around here. I hope Tudhope doesn’t have him too far back as there is a chance this turns into a bit of a dash, but if it does his 10f speed should help. There is more to come from him I think and I’d be surprised if he wasn’t in there pitching come the business end.
Never Surrender… with any luck an apt name given how my punting week is going to date. This one appears on my trends shortlist below, the yard are in form, he won LTO and I thought worth a stab at 20s. He does need to step forward, and may well not be good enough, but he stepped back up to 12f last time and settled into his race better than he had been doing – he does have a tendency to ruin his chance by pulling but there was no evidence of that LTO as he scooted clear. On only his 4th start over 12f and 3rd on decent ground, I thought he was one of the more interesting ones at a big price.
dangers…First Nation is clearly one to fear and you suspect this has been the plan. There should be more to come this season but he can be held up and it’s his first run here. He may take to the place really well and his yard couldn’t be in better form, but 4s is short enough for me in a race like this. I looked at Titus for an age and will be a tad annoyed if he wins but he does have to prove his stamina, stepping up in trip, and in that context, in a race like this, I wasn’t sure 11s or so was overly generous. The 40 day break niggled me also but the yard are in form and so was the horse when last seen. I was on the fence as to whether he’d improve for the step up so we shall see. If he relishes it he could win this well enough. Kelly’s Dino is interesting from a pace perspective…i’m not sure there is loads of it in here and he will be in the right spot. However that Ayr run put me off a bit and he needs to prove it in a race like this. I’d fancy the fav to overturn that Ascot run as you’d expect him to come on for it, and that run was a tactical affair. Of those around the 12/1 mark I preferred Pacify and we shall see if that’s right. Reshoun is a big priced trends qualifier but enough questions for me. He may appreciate this return to a more galloping track but he does need the headgear to work wonders, which isn’t impossible. It would be a bit frustrating were he to win at those odds but enough questions for me.
As always there’s a chance I haven’t mentioned the winner. I could do with one this week, so fingers crossed!
Best of luck with any bets.
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York Ebor Meeting
York Ebor Meeting Stats Report: Read HERE>>>
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York Day 3 Pointers
1.55
Trainer Race Pointers
Melting Dew (3/18,10p)
Trainers ‘in form’
Melting Dew
First Nation
Titus
Never Surrender
Top Rated Runners
Melting Dew /Moonmeister / Kellys Dino
Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers
Trainers
First Nation
Melting Dew (4/1<)
Mister Belvedere – Archie’s Affair
Caliburn
Moonmeister
Jockeys
First Nation (6/1<)
Pacify (8/1<)
Caliburn (14/1<)
Owners
First Nation (9/1<)
2.55
Trainer Race Pointers
Desert Skyline (2/6,3p)
Red Vernon (3/13,6p)
Trainers ‘in form’
Stradivarius
Count Octave
Desert Skyline
Max Dynamite
Top Rated Runners
Stradivarius/Count Octave / Stradivarius
Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers
Trainers
Jockeys
Desert Skyline (16/1<)
Stradivarius
Owners
3.00
Trainer Race Pointers
Emaraaty (3/12,5p)
The Irish Rover (2/7,6p)
Trainers ‘in form’
Chuck Willis
Legends of War
Shine So Bright
Showout
Top Rated Runners
Shine So Bright/Cosmic Law / Shine So Bright
Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers
Trainers
Emaraaty Ana
Cosmic Law – Space Traveller
Jockeys
Shine So Bright (16/1<)
Amaraaty Ana
Semoum (14/1<)
Owners
3.35
Trainer Race Pointers
Mabs Cross (2/3,2p)
Washington DC – Battle of Jericho – Declarationofpeace – Sioux Nation (2/8,4p)
Trainers ‘in form’
Battash
Blue Point
Judicial
Abel Handy
Top Rated Runners
Battaash/ Battaash / Blue Point
Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers
Trainers
Muthmir
Blue Point
Mabs Cross
Jockeys
Judicial (14/1<)
Owners
Blue Point (9/1<)
Battaash
4.15
Trainer Race Pointers
None.
Trainers ‘in form’
Barrys
Indomitable
Sevenhillsofrome
Top Rated Runners
Sky Defender/ Sky Defender / Beat Le Bon
Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers
Trainers
Argo – George Mallory
Sevenhillsofrome
Jockeys
Sky Defender
Owners/
4.50
Trainer Race Pointers
None.
Trainers ‘in form’
Finniston
Urban Aspect
Top Rated Runners
Crack On Crack On/ Mystic Flight / Crack On Crack On
Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers
Trainers
Queens Sargent – Commander Han
Finniston Farm
Silver Quartz – Corrosive
Jockeys
Nicklaus (16/1<)
Owners/
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Stats/trends race
1.55
1m4f Handicap
11/164,36 p (there was a dead heat in 2015, so 11 winners over last 10 renewals)
11/11 had 0-1 win over distance (2+ : 0/40,6p)
10/11 had 1-4 places in handicaps (inc wins) (10/79,23p) (1/85,13p outside this)
9/11 had 11 or fewer career runs (9/57,17p)
9/10 had 1 or 2 handicap wins (9/78,19p) (2/86,17p outside this)
8/11 aged 4 (8/69,19p)
Other
10/11 sent off 12/1 or shorter (14/1+ : 1/93,10p)
Track LTO
- Ascot (3/39,13p)
- Newm July (3/18,4p)
- Haydock (2/18,3p)
Trainers
- Sir M Stoute: 3/9,6p
- 1 x: Saeed bin Suroor/D OMeara/T Easterby/C Hills/M Johnston/L Cumani/R Varian
Shortlist:
0-1 wins over the distance, 1-4 places in handicaps, leaves just 4…
Never Surrender / Reshoun / Titus / Archies Affaire
11 or fewer career runs: Reshoun / Titus / Archies Affaire
1-2 handicap wins: Never Surrender / Reshoun
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2 Responses
York day 3.
1-55. Melting Dew 6-1, Mukhayyam 20-1, Caliburn 14-1
2-25.Stradivarius looks the winner all the way but at 4-11 not worth backing, Sir Chauvelin 25-1 could be best of the rest and if you want a real stab in the dark Petitioner 100-1 in first time blinkers.
3-00. nothing stands out but Showout 14-1 might be worth a small ew.
3-35. again Battash 4-6 the odds on fav should take this so i’ll have a fun ew bet on his stablemate Muthmir 33-1
4-15.Sky Defender 2-1 is the top rated but an improver could come out of the pack and Sevenhillsofrome 25-1 could be the one.
4-50.Tangled 33-1 might be worth a punt stepping back up in trip if he can recover the form from the back end of last year.
maybe a day to keep your hard earned in your wallet with more open racing tomorrow.
– 3 on flat and +14 (sp 10.5) Nh yesterday
F 3.25 – Moonlit Sands @ 7/2
N 3.45 – Railport Dolly @ 8
N 4.20 – Jet Streaming @ 11
Y 4.50 – Finniston Farm @ 20…(poss e/w)
C 6.45 – Spiced @ 10/3
G 7.05 – Trouble and Strife @ 5
S 7.25 – Glamorous Dream @ 11/2