Members Daily Post: 23/08/18 (complete)

ALL Tipsx7 , Section 1 (comp), York Day 2 pointers + stats/trends/shortlist for 3pm + test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc


1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers



2.15 – So Hoity Toity (all hncps/3yo+) G1 8/1 S6  WON 8/1>16/1 

4.00 – Swanton Blue (all hncps, 3yo+) 15/2 UP



3.00 –

Seniority (all hncps 5 yrs) w1 30 ES+ H1 13/2 S3A S6 

Mubtasim (all hncps 5 yrs) 30 ES+ 25/1 S3A UP

Original Choice (all hncps 5 yrs) 30 ES+  12/1 S3A UP

Afaak (micro class) H3 7/1 UP

Baraweez (m going) 14,30 I3 33/1 UP

4.50 – 

Move Swiftly (all hncps 5 yrs) w2 w1 30 ES+ H3 I3 G1 9/4 S2 S3A# S42nd 

Homeopathic (m class) w2 14,30 18/1 UP

Angel of Darkness (m class) 14 G3 20/1 UP

Lincoln Rocks (m dist move) I3 12/1 UP




3.10 – Dr Robin (hncp chase) 20/1 S2A UP

3.45 – Ontopoftheworld (hncp chase) H3 7/4 

4.55 – Magical Thomas (m dist) H1 I1 3/1 WON 6/1 



4.40 – Cor Wot An Apple (all hncps + hncp h) ES+ 10/1 S2 S3A UP

5.15 – Code of Law (all hncps) ES+ H3 2/1 S3A 

6.20 – My Brother (all hncps + hncp h + m dist/age) ES+ 11/2 S3A 

7.20 – The Detainee (all hncps + hncp h) ES+ I3 9/1 S3A 




H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  –  … or failing that… 



2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 22/228,80p, +9.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +172.5)

Daily Tips

None today. (I haven’t looked at sec1/3 or more generally through the cards, just focused on York)


Festival Tips

3.00 York

Afaak – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) UP

Original Choice –  1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP

Mubtasim – 1 point EW – 33/1 (betfS/PP) 25/1 (gen) (1/5,5p places) UP


Others… All from York...

1.55 – Flawless Jewel – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) UP poor, not good enough. 

2.25 – Concierge – 1 point win – 11/1 (bet365/PP) 10/1 (gen) – UP (almost PU), carnage on rail, did some damage I think but SDS eased off. Why he didn’t try and keep his spot on the rail I have no idea. Was cruising when barged. 

4.15 – Always And Forever – 1 point win  8/1 (gen) UP

4.50 – Preening – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) UP


Write ups below, bottom of Section 4… (also in free post) 


3.Micro System Test Zone


R Fell

3.00 York – Dommersen


Paddy Brennan

5.15 Font – Walden Prince

A Dunn (28/1< guide) 

6.50 Font – Milen Dollar Man

Irish Angles: De Bromhead 

7.00 Kil – Tisamystery

7.30 Kil – Theatre Dreams


4.Any general messages/updates etc

York Ebor Meeting

York Ebor Meeting Stats Report: Read HERE>>>

Thursday’s race in focus will be the 3pm. 

There is a handicap at 4.50 but only 7 renewals I think and no trends. 


York Day 2: Through The Card Pointers 


Trainer Race Pointers

Festivals/race trends…Trainers that have won said race 2x or more and have a runner

Trainers ‘in form’

’14Geegeez Symbol as per key (5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr)

Top Rated Runners

Those horses top rated on HorseRaceBase / Geegeez / Inform

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 

Those horses that hit at least one stat for my trainer/jockey/owner stats report for this Festival



Trainer Race Pointers


Trainers ‘in form’

Angle’s Hideaway / Firelight / The Mackem Bullet

Top Rated Runners

Agels Hideaway /Fairyland / Angel’s Hideaway

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 


Queen Jo Jo (16/1<)

Flawless Jewel


Angel’s Highway (8/1< FD m1/m2)

Stage Play

Queen Jo Jo (8/1<)




Trainer Race Pointers

Fanaar (3/5,5p)

He’Zanarab-Big Baby Bull- Magical Wish-Masaru (2/7,2p)

Celebrity Dancer -Secret Venture(2/355p)

Dream Of Honour (2/23,5p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Barossa Red / Dark Thunder / Gallovie / On The Stage

Top Rated Runners

Kodyanna/ Celebrity Dancer / Alfie Solomons

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 



Celbrity Dancer (16/1<)

Secret Venture (16/1<)

Kodyanna – Pacino



Secret Venture (8/1<)


Jfoul (9/1<)




Trainer Race Pointers

Firmament – Bravery (2/26,6p)

Afaak (Barry Hills was 2/13,4p in this)

Trainers ‘in form’

Sharja Bridge / Arcanada / Baraweez /

Top Rated Runners

Seniority / Hors De Combat / Sea Fox

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 


Firmament – Mythical Madness – Bravery(8/1<)

Get Knotted


Original Choice (15/2<)

Firmament (8/1<)


Silverline – Reach High (9/1<)



Trainer Race Pointers

Bye Bye Baby-Flattering-Magic Wand (4/24,7p)

Coronet (3/13,9p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Coronet / Eziyra / Horseplay

Top Rated Runners

Sea of Class / Coronet / Coronet

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 


Sea Of Class


Coronet (8/1<, FD m2)

Sea Of Class (15/2<)





Trainer Race Pointers

Awaysandforever (2/12,7p)

What A Home – Snow Wind (2/6,3p)

Sun Maiden (2/20,4p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Alwaysandforever / Lah Ti Dar / Shailene / Sun Maiden

Top Rated Runners

Lah Ti Dar / Sun Maiden / Alwaysandforever – Lah Ti Dar

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 


What A Home – Snow Wind


Sun Maiden (4/1<)


Sun Maiden (WB m1)

Lah Ti Dar (8/1<, FD m1/m2)

What A Home (15/2<)





Trainer Race Pointers

Lincoln Rocks- (trainer 3 wins of 7 renewals, inc this horse lastyear)

Trainers ‘in form’

Betty F / Crossing The Line / Homeopathic

Top Rated Runners

Victory Wave / Move Swiftly / Summer Icon

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 


Lincoln Rocks (8/1<)

Homeopathic (4/1<)


Preening (16/1< WB m1)

Betty F (8/1<, m1)

Move Swiftly (15/2<)

Lincoln Rocks (8/1<)


Victory Wave (9/1<)


3.00: Stats/Trends

3pm: 1m Handicap

10/182, 40p

10/10 aged 6 or younger

  • 0/41,7p
  • 7/10 aged 3 or 4

10/10 yet to win beyond 1m

  • Won beyond 1m: 0/66, 15p

8/10 had 2 or 3 handicap wins (8/68,17p, +40)

7/10 top 8 in the weights (exp claims) (7/84,17p, +63)

Track LTO

  • Ascot: 4/34,8p
  • Goodwood: 2/57,13p
  • 1x : York/Chelm/Ponte/Kemp
  • Haydock: 0/15,0p


  • D O’Meara: 2/26,6p
  • 1x : K Ryan/W Haggas/D Simcock/H Morrison/H Palmer
  • R Fahey: 0/11,1p
  • M Johnston: 0/12,1p

10/10 stats leave 11…

Afaak / Original Choice / Firmament / Get Knotted / Kynren / Reach High / Mubtasim / Bravery / Sea Fox / Poets Society / Love Dreams

Form that list…

2 or 3 handicap wins: Afaak / Original Choice / Firmament / Kynren / Love Dreams

Top 8 in weights:  Afaak / Orginal Choice / Mubtasim / Love Dreams


Write up for tips…

I’ve tried something a bit different today (bar the 3pm) and thought I should test myself using the actual research that follows below/in my stats report. Today may help determine how I attack the rest of the meeting as I wouldn’t usually set foot near a non handicap. But, there’s method to my madness and i’ve plenty of points to play with…

Flawless Jewel… before this meeting started Fahey was 4/16,6p + 36 with his 6-6.5f horses that had 1-3 career runs, in the last 5 years… 4/9,6p in the last 3. Like a few of these this one is in the ‘could be anything’ category and should appreciate this step up in trip. She couldn’t have done any more LTO and Fahey speaks about her as if there is a tinge of excitement/expectation of a big run. She’s less exposed than most in here and at 9s I thought she may give the top two something to think about. Angel’s Hideaway has the best form and is still improving,but is open to attack from something less exposed, also stepping forward. She isn’t the most straight forward either, edging/hanging right the last twice . She is drawn against the rail as the stalls are stand side today but she is usually held up off the pace…she may need some luck in running if they all come stands side with a wall of horses in front. I’m happy to take on an AOB shortie at the moment given his yard is a bit up and down, but that one has decent form also. Maybe i’ve picked a bad day to take on the shorties, we will find out soon enough! They are not the first…

Concierge….to my SDS meeting stats here and all of his rides in non-handicaps have been worth backing at the last 5 festivals…. 5/22,7p, +109 before this year (that does inc one big priced winner) and he rode a 3rd yesterday in his only non-handicap ride. By the trainer’s admission this has been the plan since his first run and he couldn’t have been more impressive the last twice, winning cosily LTO and running as if he’d appreciate this step up in trip. I was lured in at a double figure price because he’s drawn in box 20 and if yesterday is anything to go by, the nearside is favoured. No doubt that will switch today or it will prove to be a pace bias, but those up the middle/low looked to have their work cut out yesterday. Given the draw SDS may decide to be aggressive and some of the more fancied ones are middle to low and he may be the quickest/best of those drawn high. Maybe he’ll need some luck in running also but given the above I thought i’d have a go at around 10s. The market would indicate that Masaru may be smart but once raced horses haven’t won this yet in 20 renewals, 20 have tried, 4 have placed. So, on that basis he has some questions, esp at his price. Hannon knows what it takes to win this though. This race may prove whether there is a track bias or not as there is plenty of pace low and a few fancied ones down there. Hopefully high can dominate again, and you never know, SDS may make all against the rail! We can but hope. 

3.00 York…

I’ve used the stats/trends below as my main guide in this and have gone for three that show up well, with the trainers of both in great form at the moment. 

Afaak…I suppose I have backed him more with a ‘i want winners’ mindset (rather than finding horses overpriced against their chance to my subjective eyes, which is the only way to win long term) given his place on the stats, and to a point have ignored his odds. The betting gods may punish me for that. He was 7s before Seniority came out and he was going to be a danger to all and I quite fancied him. However, this one is solid, and has been running good races in decent handicaps. He had to wait for a run the last day/had to be switched out, but motored a bit when he was. I suspect Crowley will be aggressive on him here as it looks like he stays further. There is a niggle about fast ground for a few of the main protagonists in here, but not him. He’s also a CD winner which is never a bad thing and if he runs his race, i’d be surprised if he were far away. Hills will hope to improve on his father’s decent record in this race. 

Original Choice… like Afaak shows up well on my race/trends pointers and a few of the ‘through the card’ pointers. 12s did seem a shade too big given his last two efforts and even more so now the fav is out. A repeat of those two runs will put him in the mix here. I’m not quite sure he saw out 10f at Goodwood but ran well, outstayed by the front two maybe. He ran 3 days later in the 8f race when drawn in the car park. He was held up but got the rail and did get a fair amount of luck in running, going close. That was a decent effort and he may appreciate the 20 day break and the better draw here. Doyle is in the form of his life and with any luck he’ll race him prominently, in the right spot. There is a niggle about fast ground for him. I think he’s better with cut but based on that last run, and his double figure price, it’s hard to say he won’t handle it. 

Mubtasim…clearly a poke here but he’s the most interesting outsider of my trends qualifiers, to my eyes at least. Big priced horses have won this race a few times. His draw is just ok, those drawn 3rd widest are 1/20,5p in this over the last 20 years. At the price I was happy to overlook that and in any case I suspect he’ll be dropped in. This horse was a smart two year old but hasn’t replicated that form as yet. He ran in some decent group races aged 2 and 3, won by the likes of Blue Point and Harry Angel, and he got close enough in a couple of them. He also has big field form with a decent run in a 20 runner G3 at Royal Ascot last year and his run in the International Stakes was ok, 3/11 on his side, which was unfavoured. This is his first go over 8f which interested me. He may not stay but then again he could relish it. It could be the making of him. He was running on over Ascot’s stiff 7f LTO as if well worth a go at this distance. Hopefully he can place at worse here for a decent enough return. He should appreciate the pace/set up of the race and I can dream of him scything through and winning going away! An interesting outsider anyway. 

Always And Forever… depending on how the day has gone up to this point I may have hit the bottle by race time, and be hoping that the Ante-Post fav for the Oaks doesn’t show her best. Lah Ti Dar is the one to beat but does come here after a break and there is a niggle over fast ground. She does have a knee action and this ground, in a race with some depth, does pose a question. She is so well bred though and could just be much better than these, but I thought I’d take her on. Brave or foolish, one of the two. It was a toss up between this one and What A Home (some change on her) but I thought the selection was sure to appreciate this fast turf on what they’ve done to date. Cumani is in the best form he’s been in for some time – 5/13,7p the last 14 days and with any luck this one may improve on his record in the race, as per the pointers below. Mr Coolmoore (jockey wise) jumps back on and that is always an upgrade, even from the superb Jamie Spencer. The trainer is known to take his time with horses and hopefully this one can progress again. The front two were clear the last day and she may appreciate this more galloping track. Another interesting outsider in this I thought. If the fav does falter this becomes a very open race. 

Preening…I thought I’d finish off with an easy 15 runner handicap here! I’ve referred to my William Buick stats for this one as per the report below. This ride ticks all of those boxes… those horses with 0-3 career wins, 16/1< shorter SP, 7f-1m6f… 7/24,8p, +76 before this year’s meeting, over the last 5 years. This one steps back from listed company where she’s been running well and she is unexposed in handicaps. I also thought the drop back in trip was interesting and I assume as such that Buick will have her very handy near the front end. Outside of the fav I thought she looked most interesting here and her trainer is known to be a very good with these types. Again the fav may be hard to beat as she was very impressive the last day, having been held up and coming with a wet sail from an impossible position. But, she is up in class, and any fav under 8s or so is always short in a big field when they are a hold up types, as you need plenty of luck. She is a gassy sort, hence why they tried to settle her behind runners the last day. Maybe she’s getting better with experience and they will race her more prominently. I hope not! I thought those two looked the most interesting and have gone for the 7s shot. 

So, that’s the lot for today. 8 points spread around. I’ll keep everything crossed for a better day than yesterday. 


Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

59 responses

      1. OK, then in that case the Exacta pick that went with the original selection is Focus Group, which becomes the selection. Hopefully it turns up for the race.

        1. Another nice winner with Focus Group Martin. Got 7/1. Came from last place at one point then over the top to steal it on the line. Thanks for posting these.

        2. Another nice winner with Focus Group Martin. Got 7/1. Came from last place at one point then over the top to steal it on the line. Thanks for posting these.

  1. Hi Josh, I know you’re focussed on York this week, but how about a bit of Irish festival distraction?! I’m going to Killarney festival for next 3 days, would really appreciate if you can have a quick look to see if anything stands out to your eagle eye! No need for a through the card, maybe one of the handicaps each day. Big thanks if possible!

  2. I personally think that on a private Forum like this where posters are not seeking financial gain from their opinions they should be free to express thoughts without the restrictions or burden of adding statistics. Betting figures are a minefield awaiting ridicule and should be left to the professional touts to suffer.
    My best case scenario on here would be posters giving their reasoning for a bet and others possibly adding to a wider discussion on the race rather than a list of tips which the like can be found in any newspaper daily. I feel Josh subconsciously does this on the bigger handicaps but we fail as a forum to evolve the debate.
    Maybe I should grasp the nettle and start a daily focus on one of the sprints, which is my selected category and others can add their informed comments for the good of all. Thanks for everyone’s post on here regardless of success.

    1. Chubnut….
      -there are no ‘rules’ to the comments section, everything is welcome… the comment above was in reality aimed at the handful of people who take the time to not only research their bets etc, but then post them regularly. If someone is going to put the time and effort in over time with regular posts, i’m sure they’d take comfort knowing that others are reading the comments, and may occasionally/or more systematically, actually follow them with their own money. We are not talking complicated stats here, more a simple P/L, which all put up every now and then anyway so forget I said anything. With those who regularly ‘tip’ for example, (which is a window into their own thinking/bets), i’m not sure how everyone else is meant to know whether to follow them or not? (outside of just being interested in ‘the read’) If they so please. I for one am happy Nick for example keeps us updated on P/L as way back when that helped me decide to start following with my own money, having not done so initially as I didn’t know if he was any good. It turns out he’s one of the best tipsters/race analysts i’ve ever come across, and a tad better than anything found in the newspaper 🙂 And i only single him out because he’s been posting regular thoughts like that for the longest. I’m rather happy with my financial gain from his expertise. As I said, in reality that comment is aimed at less than 10 people who bother to share horses regularly, so the rest of us can make informed decisions on the various excellent contributions. Most people I assume have busy lives to lead and writing copious amounts as to why etc isn’t possible all the time, albeit I enjoy all the write ups etc from everyone as I like to learn and see how others think about the game, and they are the most valuable. but that’s up to the individual and whether time allows. I’m sure there will be more as the jumps season gets going, that’s always been a bit more engaged with more in depth thoughts flying around.

      -and that’s only one part of the comments clearly, along with all the other great musings, questions and occasionally debate etc, which are interesting/useful as of themselves, regardless of any ‘results’ etc.

      -I for one would be interested in any thoughts you have on sprints from time to time, that’s an area I could improve on.

      Best, Josh

  3. Conflagration Chepstow Thursday 14:50 1pt e/w Price available 7/1-Won a big field class 6 straight course 3yr old only 7f fairly easily which has thrown up a number of winners. Next time his run was too bad to be true although he had a number of excuses including the fact that he was coming off a break, stepping up in class and trip and over a round course not to mention you very rarely win with hold up horses at Beverley. Drops back into a class 6 and 7f on a straight track on better ground. Trainer in good form and is 4/10, 6p at the track in the past 12 months. Harley is one of the better jockey in the race and is 1/4, 2p here in the past year.

    Original Choice York Thursday 15:00 1pt e/w Price available 12/1-He fits all the trends and is trained by someone who targets this meeting and riding by a jockey that does well here. Has been fairly consistent and is still unexposed. I do think it likely between him and Afaak and I prefer him at the prices. 40% of those drawn 1 to 5 have placed (the winner in 2016 and the 1/2 last year were both drawn there also) and if you look at just those aged 6 or younger with a SP 14/1 or lower this improves to 10/54, 29p +43.5. Haggas was confident he would win a decent handicap this year. Doyle should be able to keep him not too far off the pace.

    Ataman Stratford Thursday 16:20 1pt e/w Price available 15/2-I was drawn in by the fact that the jockey has more experience in the past 2 years than all the others put together. He also has 8 wins to their collective two. The horse ran OK on his last handicap hurdle start on unsuitably bad ground and runs in his first handicap hurdle on good ground. Murphy is in good form and applies first time cheekpieces. His last 3 runners in first time cheekpieces have all won. Definitely looked overpriced and has been nibbled in the market.

  4. Just to throw my thoughts in…..

    I love reading both Josh’s and other members thoughts on their picks.
    If they have the time and those that post regularly by default probably already track their results. Then posting the occasional PL update shouldn’t be to much of an ask.
    A nice addition that helps.

    As for the regular tips/thoughts, i note the horse first.
    I don’t read the thoughts straight away. I go away and make my own analysis (basic such as it is) to see if i can identify the angle. The way in. Sometimes its clear and straight forward. Others not so.
    So i go back and read the members thoughts.
    There are facepalm moments, when the insight is put before you and it becomes so clear.
    Other times i may disagree with the findings and leave the suggestion alone. Happy to watch.
    If it comes in. Well done to the poster and move on.
    You can’t bet on everything.
    Letting the winners go/missing the winners is a part of punting that I’ve yet to master 🙂
    For me this is a great way to learn and one of the main reasons i love this forum and the community Josh has created.
    So hats off to those who do put their head above the parapet.
    Its appreciated and long may it continue.

    1. Thanks Darren. That sounds like a satisfying way to attack the content to me! This game is a constant journey/learning game. I’m better at missing winners provided I haven’t made a clanger. There is plenty going on that they will always be missed, can’t back everything, and you just have to be happy with your own progress over time, and that of your betting bank. My approach usually leads to big spikes on the festival front, yet to find much consistency on daily front mind! I need to learn from a few others on here.

  5. A cracking ride from Richard Guest to bring home Exchequer at 12/1 in the final race at Kempton for 11pts profit overall. Backed in to 5/1 SP he won with loads to spare. Wolves on Thursday. Qualifiers below:

    5.40 Jorvik Prince 25/1 (EW) & Pea Shooter 9/2
    6.40 Acquirer 11/2
    7.10 Noneedtotellme 9/1 & Destiny’s Rock 13/2
    8.10 Pride’s Gold 9/2

    1pt win each except where noted EW.

    Good Luck

    1. Hi Ken
      Was there not a R4 on Exchequer for was a NR a Mark Johnson horse,did not check the price at the time of withdrawal and you always put up a price the night before,often before the NR’s are announced has do others.
      Not having a go but this is always a concern when bets are put up the night before,do they include R4 in the results.
      Anyway said before started following you last week of July on Betfair Exchange at SP and showing a fair profit so far,so keep it up.

      1. Just to confuse the matter various books treat a N/R differently, Bet365 dont deduct 5ps and possibly 10ps at times. Add in differing prices from the night before complicates things. This goes back to my earlier post where should Ken, who posts for no monetary gain be put under pressure to spend more time proofing his winners

        1. Hi Chubnut. I have no problem with proofing to R4’s. I occasionally miss one but happy to correct it if someone points it out. I keep detailed records, including R4’s and it only takes a couple of minutes to check and update.

      2. Hi Colin. Yes I thought there are would be a 10p rule 4 but I bet with Ladbrokes and they paid out in full. Looks like others did too.

  6. Well done Nick on the profit figures continuing. Also well done to others who post as well, who are less successful. I do have a go most days but keep it a bit brief as I am running out of time every day. I enjoy the postings from Josh and others and try to read them all, including ones I disagree with the logic on. You learn by listening to others I find.
    I am an all rounder on sports betting but spend time on horse racing (4 to 5 hours a day) as it has value in terms of odds, as opposed to Football or NFL, which are my specialities. Golf is the only real comparison re odds but there are only two significant tournaments a week. I am very logic based but that is what comes of being an Accountant by profession (not cool)!!
    Chubnut likes to stir the pot on occasion with an opinion. It would be good if he could feed into the selection theory of the tipsters who post sometimes. Have a go at my posts as they will have some basis, but it will be to the point due to time constraints, but it will be able to be expanded upon. I had a shocker today apart from Roaring Lion (and then Millwall lost) but things can only get better on Thursday (hopefully).

    1. Martin, I’ve had great success the last 3 years on the NFL. Basically I converted Football Outsiders DVOA ratings into point spreads. I’ll post them weekly when the season starts.

      1. OK cheers. I do not think that contributors on this site are much interested in the NFL? It would go on the Free blog but you can email me instead if you wish? .
        I work in conjunction with a guy in the U.S. and use his system which I feed in to rather than one of my own.

  7. Super run from Blessed yesterday. I wasn’t at the meeting but watching her closely on the screen she behaved impeccably in the prelims, then pulled early. Thought she might run out of gas but not so and Nicola Currie gave her an excellent ride!

    Can’t wait to see her at Chelmo in the very near future Josh!!

    1. Yes, let us know when she will run at Chelmsford and I will journey over into Essex to see her run and we can meet as a group if others can make it?

      1. yep i suspect we will run her back there at some point, but as she’s now proven on grass no doubt will try again somewhere. She doesn’t want it soft so would switch back to Chelm, races permitting, if/when the ground goes.

  8. 2.25 York. Jfoul 36.0 bf 1pt win,won last 2 over 7f, drawn 18 but that doesn’t seem to be such a disadvantage anymore , gets out well and could get an easy lead won’t be stopping could hold off late finishers. that’s the theory and i’m willing to take a chance at the price as on paper doesn’t have a chance against the likes of He’zanarab and Kodyanna.

  9. Seniority now a n/r York 3-00, after deductions i’ve taken 61.76 Baraweez 1.5 pts and 38.82 Mubtasim 1pt, could have done better after the n/r on Baraweez but worse on Mubtasim so swings and roundabouts i suppose.

  10. Recent Tips
    S 4.55 – Magical Thomas on 2nd run @ 7/2
    Y 3.00 – Kynren on 3rd run @ 7
    K 5.30 – Meri Devie on 3rd run @ 16

    1. Over 3 Runs
      C 4.30 – Massinis Trap on 6th run @ 7 (been backed well in last few mins to 4?)
      K 8.30 – Ah Littleluck on 5th run @ 10

      1. Hi Titus
        You probably put the figures up for over 3 runs,but would you be so kind to do so again,for very impressed with the recent tips.
        Thank you so much for putting them up,for at times there seems to be so much content here,struggle to keep up.

  11. Chris M Selections:
    15:00 – Original Choice (12/1 gen)
    15:35 – Coronet (11/2 gen)

    13:45 – Nyala (8/1 gen)
    14:50 – Stringybank Creek (10/3 gen)

    For peoples interest I will do a small write up after this post as to why I picked these 🙂

    1. I have 2 method for my selections, method 1; system/stat based approach which I then use a rating system for the race to determine if a selection or not. Method 2; my eyecatchers, basically horses I have seen run in the past that are tracked, I take notes at time of viewing race then track and possibly bet on them for their next three runs after being noted.

      Original Choice – Method 1; Rated 7/10 using my ratings, this is top rated along with Get Knotted, Firmanent, Afaak and Hors De Combat. Given his price and him being unexposed I just think he has this one in him.

      Coronet – Method 1; Rated 6/10, this is top rated along with Laurens. This one comes from OCP systems. Gosden has a great strike rate when backing his 3 or 4 yo horses who are at the same trip or stepping up from their previous race.

      Nyala – Method 2; Noted 2 starts ago at Bath. I reckoned she needed a step back in trip and today she has stepped back 2f from when I noted her. The odds swayed it for me, given her note and the rest of the quality in the race, 8/1 is value in my eyes.

      Stringybank Creek – Method 2; Noted LTO at Wolver where he did not appreciate the AW in his bid for the treble. Back to turf today and using my ratings he is some 3 points clear of any of the others in the race. 3/1 or higher is where I’d take him on, clearly capable but only concern could be his mark which is now 5 clicks higher than his last win.

      Indian Reel – Method 2; Noted 3 starts back at N.A where he was close to opening his chase account but the distance seemed too much for him, today he steps back nearly 5f here and he may appreciate that. Given his last 2 runs have been over 3m+ and he has not handled that trip well, his mark has dropped since I noted him ( although still higher than his highest winning mark) and looks ready to claim a chase win.

      Unfortunately I don’t have time to post this everyday, even more so when I have 5+ selections but I will try to add some notes when I can. Happy punting 🙂


    No bet today

    Struggling to find one,will not risk my money let alone anyone’s else’s,there is always tomorrow.

    1. I like your ethos Colin. No point in betting for the sake of betting. Save it for the good ones. Keep up the good work!

  13. Hi Josh
    I’m about to start following your Festival Tips (if that doesn’t curse them nothing will!). How many points betting bank would you recommend?

    1. Hi Steve…
      ah that’s a good question. Well they will have 20-40 point negative swings every now and then, if not a tad more at times, albeit i don’t think we’ve gone past -25 at any point this year, that’s the nature of the beast. I’d like to think +100 points will do. All of my tipping of all time since I started blogging has never gone past -40 I don’t think, but always possible given the odds and winSR etc. I’ll be taking a holiday to clear the head if they ever have a -80 spell in one hit. As always, start small, £2.50, 5s , as all the time in the world to build up and you have to bet an amount where if there is a losing run you keep going. I’m pretty bullish in my ability, over time, in festivals/big handicaps, esp over sticks.

  14. York today – Fairyland seems to be drifting in the 1.55 but that is likely due to the O’Brien stable not hitting the stellar heights it has achieved lately. I find the race hard and so would plump for The Mackem Bullet each way at a price. 2.25, good luck with that one!
    In the 3.00 I liked Seniority as an improving type but sadly Her Majesty has pulled him out. What about Sea Fox right at the bottom? I like Eziyra for value in the 3.35. The Weld stable has found form and looks to be an improver against a short priced favourite.
    In the 4.15 Lah Ti Dar looks a star but is short. If you do not like shorties I would go with Snow Wind from the Haggas stable as an improver. In the lucky last Move Swiftly looks short. Another improver but this is a competitive race.

    Good luck to all who have tipped.

  15. Reply to James RE Killarney….
    I’ve had a quick flick through, some that caught the eye…

    5.00 Miss Zizi / Karannelle
    5.30 – ugh, that’s a tough race… Whirling Dervish maybe most interesting, if fit enough, and could race more handily than all the Mullins mob, but maybe taking him on his foolish. I’d prob have £2 for fun on Le Vagabond and Top othe Ra also at double figures. But a tricky race!
    6.00 – Cache Queen
    7.00 -Das Mooser
    7.30 – Theatre Dreams
    8.00 – Cap D’Anbois , if too short…PallasKenry at a price, first chase run mind but can usually jump from this yard.

    Best of luck, esp if backing any of those!

    1. Thanks for looking Josh and Nick, much appreciated! We’ll have a bit of fun with those! Not a bad card today, hope my luck is in! Cheers!

  16. Having run a successful betting service in my own name and also another service under a different name including golf bets for Optimum Racing in the past.
    Anyone who are putting up any bets should keep 100% true records for it helps new and old members decide if they wish to follow anyone on Josh’s site with their hard earned cash.
    My bets are recorded at bookmakers SP and at BOG where there must be at least two bookmakers who are showing the price and R4 deductions are taken off my figures,it takes only a couple of minutes to keep the records up to date.
    Anyone can manipulate figures to make them appear attractive,plenty of the shady characters out there who are charging £1000 to £2000 or more for their bets and will not send you a complete list of results only a selection of winners,that is one reason i am transparent and honest with my results and figures,and hope that everyone will be the same for it helps new and old members.
    Once again would like to thank Josh for his wonderful site and allowing myself and many others to put our information on his site,many i look at and enjoy but you cannot back them all,if there is no results and figures will not take any notice,till their are and proven.

  17. Gary Moore has five runners today and I’ve put these in a yankee:
    130 Light Of Air
    420 Hermosa Vaquera
    440 Mr Fickle
    620 East Indies

  18. whoosh, a nice 16/1 winner there for flat S6, always nice when it finds a biggie. 1st CP have transformed that one.

      1. yep, that’s why I like the odd system and I think that’s the best big priced one of the lot on flat. Those make the difference come end of season, think that’s past +40 odd to bog/early, bigger at BFSP. Every little helps. A nice £200+ to £5 win bets to date which is never to be sniffed at, or £400+ if on £10s! 🙂 Hopefully that can keep going until the end of the flat season.

      1. Oh bugger haha. I do go BFSP when bigger odds but at 8s when with bookies. Damn! drifted late and big. … that must be north of +60 BFSP now for the season. need to update from 5th Aug to yesterday, can’t recall what it’s done in last few weeks. Anyway, that will help. Well done.

  19. VALUE….

    Light of joy 4.15 York. Crazy price about this girl. Sire gave the stats a boost yesterday via roaring lion. Sire on good to firm at the distance at galloping tracks 7r 3w 2p. In those 7 runs they have ran for over 1.5 million in prize money. Trainer doesn’t tilt at windmills either. Shop around…. Look for an extra place. Looks way too big.

    1. Jarrod
      Thanks for the post with Light of Joy, just got 2nd on the line 7 runners one was withdrawn at the stalls. I got 50/1.


      1. We play fine margins…..great price without the fav…..been 80s and 66s available if shopped about. I know a few of my members had a nice touch. Don’t matter if its a nose or half the track ……VALUE AND PROFIT

  20. Mark Johnson and Joe Fanning
    Interesting comment from Jason Weaver about Joe Fanning being at Mark Johnson’s from the start and ridden about 1200 winners for him about 28%,Johnson’s words remarkable.

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