Free Daily Post: York Ebor Day 1 (complete)

Tips 1.55 + 4.15, + write ups + York Day 1… pointers to help find your own bets…

Intro 

This week, as with other big ‘Festivals’ this year, I plan to attack York with everything I have at my disposal. This will include my ‘festival tips’ below (tbc by 10am on day of racing) which have done well in 2018 so far… +177.5 points to mainly 1 point win bets. We’ve had a very good Cheltenham, Aintree, Punchestown, Royal Ascot and Galway. Goodwood and Newmarket’s July meeting haven’t been so good, but with any luck this will be a good week. On Tuesday all tipping content on these pages, including the free tips which focus on 3m+ handicap chases, hit +250 points for 2018. 

My blog and what I do on these pages, both free and members’,  has always been more than just my thoughts. The aim has always been to provide unique/accessible information for you to use yourselves, to find your own bets. The most satisfying winners in this game are those that you find yourself, hopefully using some of the information I provide. With that said, below you can find my Day 1 ‘through the card’ notes, as explained below. For this week I will repeat all York content as posted in my Members’ posts. I’ve always done well at Jumps Festivals, but the flat has been a work in progress this year. You can also find my unique ‘big meeting stats report’ which I produce for members for each Festival, with a look at trainers/jockeys/owners. 

Let’s get to it…

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BIG RACE ‘Festival’ TIPS

1.55 York 

Copper Knight – 1 point win – 18/1 (betfS/PP) 16/1 (gen) UP

Line of Reason – 1 point win – 20/1 (betfS/PP) 16/1 (gen) UP

Eastern Impact – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP

 

4.15 York

Natural Scenery – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) UP

Northwest Frontier – 1 point win – 10/1 (betfS/Lad/Coral/others) 9/1 (gen) UP

Ah, a poor day, -5 and nothing giving me too much to cheer there. Onto tomorrow. 

 

1.55 

You can see the stats/trends shortlist at the bottom of this post for these two races and as always I have used that as a guide. This race is fiendishly difficult as you’d expect and in reality you wouldn’t be shocked were anything to really step forward and win this, to a point. Most have decent form somewhere in competitive big field C2 handicaps and a few have run very well at the track. With that in mind I did focus on those 16s+ and will live with it if any of the ‘shorties’ go in…

Copper Knight... i tipped this one LTO at Goodwood and long suffering members will tell you that it’s worth persevering with my recent losing tips on their next three starts/stop at a winner. I don’t have the figure to hand but it’s a chunky haul of profit and I seem to be premature with many of the tips i put up. This one also appears in my members section 1 stats (my trainer track profiles qualifiers) and he’s on the stats/trends shortlist below. He’s won a 5f big field C2 handicap at the course also. When I consider all of that I wanted to have another go at 16s-18s. I’d rather lose the 1 point than seem him win at those odds given the above. That would be painful. He has the ability to win this and will give it a good go. His turf form is a bit mixed but he once got within 3L of Battash and he does have some class. They fancied him at Muss where the jockey reported he probably needed the run still. He ran ok at Ascot, maybe on the wrong side, but wasn’t far behind the Stewards Cup 2nd that day. He wasn’t his best at Goodwood when last seen. Maybe the track didn’t suit or he went too fast on the front end. I paid too much attention to a poor run their for Gunmetal on Saturday, having tipped him in the Stewards and left him at Ripon where he dotted up. Painful. I didn’t want that happening again. Fingers crossed. 

Line Of Reason…he showed up well on my stats for this race and has the ability to take this. When running in the race in 2016 he fluffed the start somewhat and was never really in it, but plugged on. In last year’s race he was beaten 4l off 7lb higher and after a longer than ideal break. He does need plenty to drop right but he should have so much pace to aim at here, which suits his strong travelling style. He arrives in some sort of form and I wouldn’t be surprised if that run LTO was a prep for this, on the back of a 28 day break. He’s always been at his best returning within 15 days. He ran well at the Curragh 4 starts back and if he repeated that run he wouldn’t be far away here. He then dotted up in a C3 and gives every indication there is plenty of life in the old legs yet. Midgley has done well in this race in recent years and older horses have won this. At his price I couldn’t resist. Fanning returns and he is 2/3 on the horse in handicaps. 3/4 would be welcome! 

Eastern Impact... I ignored the trends for this one but lodged in my memory is Stamp Hill..who was put up here in a stats shortlist of 5 or so for a big handicap at Ascot 2 years back, on Skybet Dash day, who bolted up at 50s in first time blinkers. Fahey reaches for them on this one for the first time and i hope they have the same impact. When it all clicks again this horse will be bolting up in a handicap, given his mark, and the level of his form in years gone by, including the odd run this season where he’s gone well. The trip is a slight unknown but it is doing something different and he has plenty of pace to aim at. Of course he may be sparked up in the headgear and be front rank. If he goes the pace Hanagan wants and isn’t pulling, his extra stamina will be a bonus here. This is about the headgear i think and whether it works, and takes him to the level of previous runs off much higher marks. At 16s I was happy to roll the dice and find out. He’s one to track as he’s so well handicapped, has some class at his best, and is only 7 still. 

So, three interesting outsiders there. As I said you can make a case for plenty. Final Venture was high up on my list but the 74 day break put me off, in the context of his price/this race. I wanted a bit bigger but he has the ability to win this and I won’t be surprised if he does. Maybe he will show 11s to be decent but like I said, my eyes were fixated on those 16s+ and I found three I could make a case for. Tis Marvellous won the last day as if 5lb wouldn’t stop her and she’s a G2 winner. Big weights don’t have a great record in this which put me off at 10s, but a big run wouldn’t surprise me. A case can be made for Tommy Taylor, Holmeswood and many more. It’s that sort of race but were one of these three to win at the prices, and I wasn’t on, i’d be very annoyed. I can’t say that about any other horses in this race and if something else beats me, so be it! 

There seems to be pace across the track and I don’t see an excuse on that front. Of course there may be a track bias but they have won from all over so far this year. Sadly we won’t know whether there is a track bias on the sprint course until after this race. 

 

4.15 

Again I used the stats/trends shortlist as a guide here…

Natural Scenery...she has has a few bits of form, including in last year’s Ebor, which would see her go very close to beating this lot if repeating it. She shows up on my Godolphin stats for the meeting also, if sent off 9/1 or shorter and SBSs horses are going well enough. She would have needed the run two starts back and given her best form is over 16f in a cavalry charge, i’m not sure her last race would have suited- 14f and 7 runners. These are more her conditions and she’s arguably the most thorough stayer on paper in this, on what they have all done to date. There was enough there at 9s for me to have a go. If she can get back to her best she won’t be far away here. (well, if she repeated that Ebor run I think she wins) 

Northwest Frontier...he’s had a cracking season so far and just keeps getting better. I suspect the trip was too far the last day and in any case he was on his toes and a bit agitated before it. The Ayr and Ripon runs were very good, given the horses he beat and what they have done since. There have been plenty of winners out of those, and losing to Euchen Glen at Ayr is very good staying form, given what he did on his next two starts. He ticks my main stats/trends for this and in general those more fancied runners, under 10/1 SP, have been the place to focus. He looks set to run a big race to my eyes and we shall if he’s up to it. I think he will relish these conditions, the pace and the trip around here. 

Of the rest…well Bedrock made my shortlist but he does need to step forward and the two selections have better form to date. But he looks like he stays well and is no forlorn hope. I’ve had a saver on. Manjaam would be the ‘clanger’ horse and I’ve had change on at 25s, just in case. Only because he’s on the stats/trends shortlist of 5 and is unexposed over the distance. He didn’t seem to get home the last day though and i’m not sure he has the class for this. The market may guide…Dunlop is only 5/211 with his flat handicappers sent off 22/1 or bigger! They are pretty hard to find and the stats for the 14/1-22/1 range are not much better. We shall see. Hopefully the two selections give me something to cheer entering the final furlong. Of course i may not have mentioned the winner. Pays your money and takes your chance. At least any long time followers of the blog/my tips, certainly in 2018, have plenty to play with. 🙂 

I’ll try my best this week to do better than Goodwood. On we go. 

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Information to use as you please…

York Ebor Meeting

York Ebor Meeting Stats Report: Read HERE>>>

 

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Below I have pulled together the four strands of my ‘through the card pointers’, which are all in one place, on a race by race basis. With any luck if you plan to get involved in any race from York, you will find this information useful in helping with your analysis. It’s all fairly self explanatory. For previous ‘Festivals’ this approach has found plenty of winners, especially when a few horses ‘align’ across a few sections, and the ‘trainers in form’ have landed on a few biggies from memory. Landing on the right ones is easier said than done though! You may ignore them, just focus on a handful of races, use for placepot purposes etc etc. I’ll endeavour to get these complete by 7pm the night before in future. If you do fancy anything at York, esp if using anything below, do post a comment! 🙂 

 

York Day 1 : Through The Card Pointers

‘Key’

Trainer Race Pointers

Festivals/race trends…Trainers that have won said race 2x or more and have a runner

Trainers ‘in form’

’14Geegeez Symbol as per key (5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr)

Top Rated Runners

Those horses top rated on HorseRaceBase / Geegeez Gold / Inform Speed Ratings

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 

Those horses that hit at least one stat for my trainer/jockey/owner stats report for this Festival, the link to that is above. 

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1.55

Trainer Race Pointers

Tommy Taylor (trainer 2/15,3p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Culturati

Top Rated Runners

Tis Marvellous / Final Venture / Final Venture

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers

Trainers

Tommy Taylor

Fashion Queen (8/1<)

Watchable

Cultural (5/1< best)

Holmeswood

Jockeys

Culturati (WB m1)

Fashion Queen (8/1<)

Owners

Culturati (9/1<)

 

2.25

Trainer Race Pointers

Broome (2/15,6p) / Persian Moon (2/17,3p)

Trainers ‘in form’

None.

Top Rated Runners

Watan /Pogo / Persian Moon

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers

Trainers /

Jockeys

James Street (15/2<)

Persian Moon

Phoenix of Spain

Owners /

 

3.00

Trainer Race Pointers

Sevenna Star (4/11,4p) / Kew Gardens – Nelson – The Pentagon – Zabriske (3/29,14p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Old Persian / Cross Counter / Sevenna Star

Top Rated Runners

 Cross Counter / Cross Counter / Cross Counter

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers

Trainers

Cross Counter (5/1< best)

Old Persian (5/1< best)

Jockeys

Sevenna Star (8/1<) ( FD m1/m3)

Old Persian (15/2<)

Owners

Cross Counter (9/1<)

Old Persian (9/1<)

 

3.35

Trainer Race Pointers

Saxon Warrior (5/35,9p) / Poets Word (3/19,8p) / Benbatl – Thunder Snow (2/12,4p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Poet’s Word / Thundering Blue / Latrobe / Roaring Lion / Without Parole

Top Rated Runners

Poets Word / Poets World / Poets Word

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers

Trainers

Poets Word (4/1<)

Jockeys

Without Parole (8/1<, FD m1/m2)

Poets Word (15/2<)

Owners

Benbatl (9/1<)

Thunder Snow (9/1<)

 

4.15

Trainer Race Pointers

None.

Trainers ‘in form’

Genetic / Here And Now / Eye of The Storm

Top Rated Runners

Bedrock / Genetics / Watersmeet

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers

Trainers

Davy’s Dilemma

Jockeys

Speedo Boy (15/2<)

Manjaam (8/1<)

Owners

Natural Scenery (9/1<)

 

4.50

Trainer Race Pointers

Eljayeff – Gabrial The Wire – Absolute Dream (3/20,4p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Don Armado / Blyton / Thegreatestshowman  / Woodside Wonder

Top Rated Runners

Ginger Nut / Thegreatestshowman / The Great Heir

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers

Trainers

The Great Heir (16/1<)

Rathbone (16/1<)

Prince Elzaam (8/1<)

Blyton (8/1< best)

Eljayeff

Gabrial The Wire

Absolute Dream

Barend Boy (16/1< best)

Jockeys

Prince Elzaam (8/1<)

Owners /

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These stats I will use as a guide to help with my own tipping…

Day 1 Handicaps In Focus 

1.55: 5.5f Handicap

9/158, 34p

9/9 carried 8-13 to 9-7 (exc claims)

  • 9-8+ : 0/28,4p
  • 8-12< : 0/44,4p
  • 7/9 carried 9-4 to 9-7

9/9 had 4+ runs this season (3<, 0/30,3p)

9/9 ran within last 25 days.

  • 26+ : 0/31, 4p

8/9 Top 9 in weights

  • 10th or lower: 1/67,9p

8/9 had run at Group 3 or above

  • 8/81,19p
  • Had not: 1/77, 15p

8/9 had 1+ class win

  • 0: 1/62,13p

Track LTO

  • Goodwood: 5/44,11p, +34

Trainers

  • K Ryan: 2/15,3p
  • 1x: Chapple-Hyam/ A Carroll/P Midgley/T Easterby/M Dods/ D Ivory

 

Shortlist: 8-13 to 9-7, 4+ runs this season, ran within last 25 days…leaves 7…. 

El Astronaute / Tommy Taylor / Tanasoq / Gracious John / Copper Knight / Line of Reason / Watchable 

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4.15:  2m ½ F handicap

9/138, 31p

9/9 aged 4 or 5

  • 6+ : 0/50, 5p

7/7 (UK run LTO) running same class or drop 1

  • Up 1 or 2: 0/41,7p

8/9 drawn 7+

  • 1-6: 1/52, 7p

7/9 sent off 8/1 or shorter

7/9 6th or lower in the weights

  • Top 6: 2/51, 9p

Other

  • Top 2 LTO: 0/34,8p

Trainers: No trainer has won this more than once since inception

  • 1x: D Weld / R Beckett/ A Martin/ M Tompkins / A King / B Ellison / E Dunlop / JJ Quinn / M Johnston
  • Irish based trainers 2/9,3p (none this year)

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Best of luck 

Josh 

 

p.s Don’t forget, if you like my approach above, like the idea of following some profitable tips (in the long term!), systems and/or like using quality information to find your own bets, then you can take a 7 week trial of my members’ club for just £7. That’s £1 per week for a whole 7 weeks. Bargain! 🙂 Oh, and it’s a great community with plenty of profitable contributors in the comments.

You can join TeamRTP for your trial, HERE>>>

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. +5.4 @ bog ( 5 @ sp) on the flat and -2 on NH yesterday(both placed)
    C 2.05 – Scenery @ 10
    C 3.50 – Danehill Desert @ 17/2
    Y 4.15 – Speedo Boy @ 8
    K 8.45 – Treacherous @ 13/2
    NH
    5.00 – Heurtevent @ 7/2
    6.00 – Ocean Jive @ 4

  2. BEDROCK is about a 150 Hurdler, ran 4th in the £150K Galway Hurdle, bolted up off 82 at Mussleburgh and certain to stay

    The yard have previous for lining them up for the Ebor and my impression is they will be trying to get this one there next year. They ran Nakeeta here the year before he won the big race. Anyway, besides the conspiracy theories which may or may not hold watet, the majority of the opposition here have been either slung up in the weights, are trying 2 miles for the first time or have never won a handicap.

    5 places ew is a pretty much free bet – I’ve had the maximum on

    1. Good luck Rick, yep maybe i’ll regret crossing him off my shortlist last. Should go well you’d think and won’t be found for stamina. Horses that ran at Galway Fest LTO have a good record at this meeting. I’d better have some more cover on him!

      1. with 5 places, each way a pleasure

        no accident that Fanning is back on board

        We saw what a high rated hurdler can do at Glorious Goodwood (Rockerfeller) and
        this boy is rock hard fit, most of these are going to struggle to give him weight

        I have a 100+ horse already

  3. Golf Tips – I am running out of time what with York and midweek football!

    At The Northern Trust I like Webb Simpson at 33/1, 1 point each way. Second last week and back to form. I also like Justin Thomas at 12/1, 2 points each way.

    In Europe I like Eddie Pepperell at 18/1, 1 point each way. He is in decent form and is suited to the course at The Czech Masters.

    Good luck.

  4. Football – two from two yesterday. Not so much choice today.

    Blackburn go well at Home and Reading are struggling this season and so the home win at 5/6 looks solid.
    Norwich can score goals but struggle to defend and so the 11/10 for over 2.5 goals looks OK.

    Good luck.

    1. Hi Martin, hopefully over 2.5 goals might be 3-0 to Preston!! I think we’d both take a point from our tricky away games tonight. You are a point ahead in our friendly wager. We are missing Paul Gallagher tonight for his ridiculous challenge on Joe Allen on Saturday – hopefully might be a recall for ex United player Josh Harrop who I rate highly but Alex Neill never gives a proper run of games for some reason. Good luck at Hillsborough
      Harry

      1. Alex Neill!!! He looks a bit crazy to me? Well we storm the first 30 minutes, ease off a bit the next 30 and then try to defend for the last 30 minutes. Odd tactics. The truth comes when injuries hit. May the best team win (but only if it is Millwall).

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