Members Daily Post: 21/08/18 (complete)

Tips x4, Section 1 (comp) , test zone,

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Hamilton

1.50 – 

Yes You (all hncps) w2 w1 H3 G1 5/1 S2 2nd 

Kenny The Captain (3yo+) I3 G3 12/1 UP

John Kirkup (micro dist/age) 14 8/1 UP

2.50 – 

Ayutthaya (all hncps/3yo+) w2 H3 I3 9/2 2nd 

Falmouth Light (all hncps) w1 I3 6/1 UP

Brother McGonagall (3yo+, + m age) I3 G3 14/1 UP 

Silvery Moon (3yo+) 25/1 UP

Give It Some Teddy (3yo+ ,+ m age) G1 9/1 S6 3rd 

Rock N Rolla (m runs) w2 ES+ I3 G3 20/1 S3A# UP

3.20 – Mable Lee (all hncps) 15/2 UP

3.50 – 

Cool Run Girl (all hncps) 10/1 UP

Hellavashock (m runs) G3 20/1 UP

4.20 – Kitty’s Cove (3yo+, + m age)  4/1 

4.55 – Colour Contrast (all hncps) 10/1 

 

Brighton

2.40 – 

Kirklan Forever (all hncps 5 yrs, all hncps) ES+ I3 G1 7/1 S2 S3A# S6 2nd 

Iballisticvin (m going) H3 I3 5/2 UP

 

Yarmouth

5.20 – Red Bunting (2Y0) 10/3 

6.20 – Slow To Hand (m going) 30 I3 G1 9/1 S2 S6 

7.50 – Foie Gras (m class move) G3 40/1 

 

JUMPS

Newton Abbot 

5.30 – Moorlands Jack (hncp chase) w1 H3 I1 11/4 

6.00 – Bleu Et Noir (m TJC/age) 22/1 S2A 

7.00 -Midnight Queen (m age + days) w2 4/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 22/224,80p, +13.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +177.5)

Daily Tips

1.50 Ham – Dark Defender – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen)  WON 10/1>14/1 

2.50 Ham- Brother McGonagall – 1 point win – 20/1 (bet365/SB/BV) 18/1 (gen) UP Exciting for a time, but sadly couldn’t get a prominent position. Travelled into it well but maybe using that much energy from that far back, on soft, with that weight, took it’s toll. Don’t want to say he’s finished winning just yet though. 

3.20 Ham- Mable Lee – 1 point win – 8s (places) 15/2 (gen)  UP …really poor, and seemingly no excuse on paper! 

3.50 Ham – Cool Run Girl – 1 point win – 11/1 (gen) UP ..didn’t see race, was in a tunnel, assume still running. The soft which probably ensured DD won, may well have done for this one. I’d have taken 1/4 before the day started. 

4.30 Kemp – Gallipoli No Tipprice gone as typing, 6s/7s worth a go, 9/2 not looking overly generous to my eyes and may be around the price he should be.  

that’s all for tips 09.40, write ups …

Dark Defender… a recent losing tip two starts back, the drop to 5f wasn’t really going to suit the last day. I have a fear that this ground may be drying out but with any luck they get some more drizzle and there is enough good to soft in places. He is 3/12,6p in handicaps GS-Soft, vs 1/19,2p Good-GF and it’s evident he prefers cut. At his best I think he’s better than this lot and at 10s I was happy to roll the dice again, given his form over CD at a higher level, the move back up in trip, the jockey switch and the removal of headgear- it may not work at all but he’s been wearing headgear for so long now that removing it may have a positive impact. My initial starting point was to tip Kenny The Captain in this and when he bolts up it will no doubt set the tone for the day, followed by Gallipoli whose price I missed. Dark Defender beat Kenny comfortably here last season, giving him 8lb, and now he receives 3. These two may be close enough to each other through this, and with any luck i’ve picked the right one! I’ve had a saver on Kenny just in case. 

Brother McGonagall…maybe this one has lost a leg overnight but I thought 16s was worth a stab and now he’s 20s/18s. I can’t quite work out that price unless he’s now simply out of form, but I thought I should forgive that one poor run when last seen. If he were coming here on the back of that decent effort in a C2, where the winner went in again at Goodwood, he’d surely be half this price. He doesn’t have many miles on the clock and while he has to prove himself up to this rating, he’s yet to conclusively prove he can’t win from this high, and in that scenario you want a decent price, He beat the Fahey horse at Beverley and there was 15lb or so between them that day, as there is today having both progressed, so maybe that price disparity is a bit strange. He is a tough horse, a trier, and I thought he’d appreciate this stiff climb and the pace he’ll have to aim at. His draw is a niggle but it’s not impossible from there. If they decide to drop him in there is pace to aim at, or there is a chance he can get out and across. At these odds i’ll roll the dice. It’s a more speculative one but if he ran to the form before his last run, he’d outrun these odds in what looks an open enough race. The trainer does well here, and even more so when Allan riding, especially in the last 12 months. 

Mable Lee – unexposed, drops in class, returns to ground with no sting in it, which should suit, and Evans jumps back on. I thought that was interesting given he’s the only jockey to have ridden her to victory and it’s his first go on her again since that win. She ran well the last day as well, and the jockey wasn’t overly hard on her, on ground which would have been too fast. I thought she was a couple of points too big here in another open enough race. She had the most interesting profile I thought. Given my inability to find any rhythm i’ve probably picked the wrong Jardine horses today, but hopefully the icing on the cake will be…

Cool Run Girl… I think I tipped this one at various points last season without much luck but while she’s a maiden she does come here in some sort of form, and was running on the last day. This is a shocker of a race and I thought she was worth a go back at this trip on more suitable ground. She tried it at Newcastle a few runs back where she needed the run I assume and her other goes on turf have been in deep mud. The jockey booking intrigued me also, ‘Roddy’ riding for the first time…trainer and jockey are 5/14,7p when teaming up in turf handicaps, and maybe he can find the key. This race won’t take much winning and this is last chance saloon you’d think. With any luck she relishes this trip and bolts up. She is related to a few nice 10f+ horses. 

Gallipoli- was worth a go at 6s/7s I think… first time visor, ran ok to a point LTO when tipped at monster odds but this is much weaker. Drop in class for the first time in an age and Hamilton jumps on for the first time I think. A chance they try and make all and he had decent form at Lingfield and Newcastle. Fahey is only 1/94,16p here in the last 5 years which tempered some enthusiasm at a shorter price but I hope he goes well. 

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That’s the lot for today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

1.50 Ham – Kupa River 20/1 UP

3.20 Ham – Guardia Svizzera 9/2 WON 9/2>2/1 

Jumps

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

5.30 NA – Millie Nautique 11/2 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

In the news…

In case you missed it, as of today BetVictor have introduced a £500 Bet Guarantee for every race in the UK and Ireland. You can read the statement HERE>>>

It would appear this provision is also available to those that may have had their BV accounts closed and you can email in and ask them to reinstate for racing markets which it appears they’re willing to do, subject to review. They will be reviewing it as time goes on and may increase the liability. Hopefully the market may do the rest and others will follow with similar offers. Time will tell but it’s a positive step. The fear for anyone successful over time isn’t the remove of BOG (or shouldn’t be, and that didn’t exist pre 2000) but simply never getting on. If we get to the stage of X bookies offering such a guarantee, that fear will be long gone. It will be interesting to see what impact this has on price, and whether any ‘value’ prices are still available or disappear in no time at all, making it all a pointless exercise anyway. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

55 Responses

  1. This could be of interest to punters that are struggling to get a decent bet on with the bookies. BetVictor are guaranteeing to take any Win bet to a maximum £500 liability from on-line accounts and will not close winning customers accounts. There is a catch however…. you won’t be able to place the bets the night before.

    You can read more here….. https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/betvictor-claim-online-first-with-new-500-lay-to-lose-guarantee/343141

    1. I couldn’t get a bet on earlier, still says all bets are banned for my account. Apparently you can email them, asking to have your account reopened for racing bets

    1. I will sound negative now, but it sounds like a gimmick to me. So if they let me back they will let me win £500 on every bet I have! I know, lets give them the benefit of the doubt for now. Hopefully there will be benefit to some.

      1. Yeah it’s not much of a concession particularly as it’s from 11am. You can get the same from BlackType right now and they are priced up at 8:30am. But it’s a start.

      2. Well sounds like they will Martin, yep! 🙂 It is from 11am, so all perceived value may be gone by then but then again i’m sure there are pros etc who bet around lunchtime, based on their perception of value at that time. With any luck it will be more important for the impact it has on others- a market in Guaranteed Bets would be good- as some may do it differently, eventually it may be from earlier in the day, and liabilities may go up in time. It is a positive move forward but will be interesting the impact on wider industry and indeed their own odds, and the business.

        1. More sceptical possible Bet Victor is the next bookmaker to be bought and they wish to up their turnover to make the business more attractive to suitable bidders,for they are not doing this for the good of the punter.
          Would imagine they have lost a lot of the market share.

        2. They have let me back on and I will try some bets up to the £500 limit once there is something I want to back, likely tomorrow for certain. We shall see. Black Type do do it and Star Sports as well.

  2. AW racing from Kempton on Tuesday. Here are the qualifiers:
    4.30 Gallipoli 7/1
    5.05 Maakaasib 9/2 & Vegas Boy 7/2
    5.35 True North 5/1

    1pt win each

    Good luck

  3. Hi everyone I need some help, is there anywhere online I can obtain the betfair SP’s win and place other than timeform, paper trading a little system but the last 4-5 days the SP’s on timeform are all over the shop.
    Thanks,

    Greg

    1. Hi Greg. The only place I can find is a website called promo dot betfair dot com slash betfairsp slash sp_history dot html (I’ve written it this way cos Josh’s security sometimes doesn’t like you putting up links).

      Go to the second paragraph and click where it is highlighted “here” You can download excel files with BSP. Might be a bit long-winded for what you are looking for and can’t vouch for the site or it’s accuracy. Otherwise TF is the only other place I can find.

    2. HorseRaceBase has full results, to SP, BFSP, but of course that’s a subscription service albeit if you enjoy building systems etc then def worth the £10 pm. although still not sure if accepting new members. Josh
      (Ken, you can post such links, just occasionally I have to approve them depending on what linked to!)

    3. I use a similar link to the one Ken has given.

      http://www.betfairpromo.com/betfairsp/prices/index.php

      I have this bookmarked because I have no idea how I found it. From here you can sort using a load of filters. It gives you excel files you can download with the BSP and the place odds, plus a load of other information I’m sure someone out there finds useful. If all else fails horse race base is a great tool to have so may be worth the investment.

      Hope that helps. (hopefully the link is allowed)

      Chris

      1. I was curious in the difference between myself and Ken’s link as they are both betfair promo links but it seems the one Ken gave is secure (according to Google Chrome) so maybe that is the safer one to use. I have used Ken’s link to find the exact same page my original link goes to but this time secure (again according to Google Chrome). I have put that link below and also update my own bookmark 🙂

        https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices

  4. Roca Magica Kempton Tuesday 14:00 1pt e/w Price available 14/1-Has come out of an extremely hot race with the front five in that race having gone 6/10, 8p since the race. Trainer is flying at the moment and Probert is one of the better jockeys in the race. None of the big yards are represented here and I thought he looked value for the price even if the AW is a slight unknown.

    Bodega Newton Abbot Tuesday 18:30 1pt e/w Price available 8/1-Has ran OK in class 3 company since his win and drops back to a class 4 which looks much easier than what he has been contesting and I thought 8/1 was a solid enough e/w bet. Trainer is flying with 3 wins and 2 2nds from his last 7 runners.

    Kiruna Peak Newton Abbot Tuesday 19:30 1pt e/w Price available 13/2-I want to give this one one more chance. Looked the likely winner when falling at the last 2 starts ago and might have needed last time to regain confidence. Fergal had his first winner in a month (should have twigged considering it was his birthday today but hindsight is wonderful) and Paddy is back in the saddle. They have a solid 3/13, 6p record at the track in the past 2 years. The other thing which severed us well this time 12 months ago is only 3 of the field are race fit with 3 making their season debuts and 3 returning off 7 weeks plus which I always think is an odd break pattern. Of the 3 one is a fairly exposed 9yr old so I do think this is between the pick and the favourite.

    1. Almost a dream start…thought it was getting up at one point. Profit secured for the day anyhow so thanks as always.

    1. yep just spotted that, thanks. He is on my notepad, I think the lost of horses in 1.50/2.50 all blurred into one. He isn’t a strategy qual at least. thanks.

  5. another cracking day out at Thirsk apart from the betting, i blanked not a winner in sight, at least my lad had 4/7 for a nice profit even my dad who was ringing me up had 1/3 , no more trips now for a while.

  6. Recent Tips
    Daily/Notes
    B 1.40 – Haylah on 2nd run
    H 1.50 – Dark Defender on 3rd run, and Kupa River on 3rd run
    N 6.00 – Court Minstrel on 2nd run
    Festival
    K 4.30 – Gallipoli on 2nd run ( has form on aw at distance and down in class)
    Mike

  7. Chris M Selections:
    Hamilton:
    13:50 – Kenny the Captain (12/1 gen)
    14:50 – Ayutthaya (4/1 gen)
    16:20 – Flying Focus (4/1 in places, shortening to 7/2 as I type)

    Kempton:
    16:30 – Tawny Port (9/1 gen)

    Newton Abbot:
    17:30 – Candy Burg (9/2 gen)

    Good luck with your bets today

    1. Another nice one with Candy Burg Chris and a nice driift to 10s too. Unfortunately I didn’t have a penny on. More fool me!! Well done.

  8. COLINS BETS
    Hamilton
    3.20 Guarida Svizzera BOG 4/1
    4.20 Handsome Bob BOG 5/2
    Newton Abbot
    7.00 Top Chief BOG 11/2

  9. One winner from three yesterday, but as it was at 9/4 there was a small profit.

    On the jockey front Paul Hanagan goes to Hamilton to ride for Fahey, who has some decent low weight runners in handicaps. SDS is at Brighton for a mix of trainers but not Mark Johnston, on a not particularly interesting card. At kempton on the all weather Atzeni and Oisin Murphy are there. Atzeni rides two but is likely there to rice the Roger Varian runner in the 5.35, Gift Of Raaj. The Gosden – Havlin duo team up for two, 3.30 Margie’s Choice and 4.30 Fennaan. Sir Mark and Luke Morris have two as well, Boffo in the 3.00 and True North in the 5.35.
    I will go with a win trixie on the Gosden Havlin two plus True North.

    At Yarmouth only Jamie Spencer goes from the top league of jockeys. His rides are all for different trainers, none of the big boys.
    There is a good twilight meeting at Newton Abbot. Skelton and some of the bigger hitters run horses and Richard Johnson, Scu, Aiden Coleman etc are there.

    Good luck.

    1. More selections – 2.50 Ham Michele Strogoff, 20/1+. I have put up this horse previously. It is a bit in and out but has ability and so the 20/1+ looks worth a go.

      U.S. Racing Tip – Finger Lakes race 7, 8.2 UK time, Gino And The Jets. No prices yet.

      Good luck.

  10. Hi Josh

    Off to Cartmell on Saturday, know you will be busy this week but any pointers would be appreciated.

    Cheers Mark

    1. Hi Mark, I’ll see what I can do albeit York on Saturday is very busy and I’m off there for the day’s racing, so other than any section 1/3 quals, it may be unlikely! But we shall see.

  11. Help went onto Betvictor help site could not find anything about the £500 commitment how do you contact them to reopen my account.
    useless on the computer
    Many thanks

  12. Well done Josh, great tip and a nice drift as well! Glad Dark Defender got the win there, I tipped Kenny the Captain but was between him and Yes You, would have been egg on my face if he won!

    1. ha cheers, I was between those 3, but left YY on price, could have lived with him winning that at odds. Was very close between Kenny and winner. Was on Kenny for an age, then starred at Mike’s list of my recent losers for a bit longer, and he was doing a few more things different, looked a tad more interesting, and that weight swing on collateral form swung it, esp as DD has very good form here, and Kenny not so good- albeit I put that down to small fields/lack of pace, but after that run maybe he just doesn’t like Hamilton, that’s now 0/5,0p. Needed a decent priced one, need to up my game on the daily front. Hopefully 1 more of others can go in for a very good day.

      1. I was the exact same on YY, the price put me off. Yep reading that stat after the race, Kenny looks like he does not favour this course but may be one to watch NTO, could be a decent price again. DD was ridden perfectly imo, ran away fro the bunch and took the front at the right time. Again well done Josh 🙂

  13. Lovely start, helped in no small part to the jockeys reporting the ground to be riding soft after the first race.

    The planets aligned 🙂

  14. Jason Hart… I think that’s one of the best rides you’ll ever see! 🙂 Well, in the context of the horse/race etc. He is a tricky bugger, and I don’t think likes racing with other horses…i remember a quote from somewhere, possibly NM told me. Anyway, Hart has ridden him all alone up the middle as if he didn’t know he was in a race. He’s then moved him across to race with the rail, which has helped win him that also. Masterful stuff there, from one of the best sprint handicap jockeys around. Good start to the day, could do with a few more before the flat season is out.

    1. A lovely bit of drift on the price, 9/2 advised to 10/1 SP, turned what looked like a losing day into a good winning day 🙂 hopefully keep this run going!

  15. Recent Tips OVER 3 runs p/l to 19 Aug

    DAILY/NOTES

    98 x 4th run
    14 x win @ 14% sr
    prof @ bog – 10.5……..@ sp – 33

    27 x 5th run
    12 x win @ 44 % sr
    prof @ bog 52.5……..@sp 37.5

    19 x 6th run
    5 x win @ 26% sr
    prof @ bog 41………@ sp 34.5

    10 x 7th run
    2 x win @ 20% sr
    prof @ bog 20……..@ sp 15.5

    9 x 8th run
    2 x win @ 22% sr
    prof @ bog 26.5………@ sp 21

    3 x 9th run and 3 x 10th run for a loss of 6
    There has been 1 x 11th which was My Amigo t’other day which won @ 8’s bog, 5’s sp which I didn’t back.

    FESTIVAL

    5 x 4th run
    1 x win
    prof @ bog 8……@sp 5

    2 x 5th run
    0 win
    prof – 2

    1 x 6th run
    1 x win
    prof @ bog 12…….@ sp 5

    3m+

    3 x 4th run
    0 x win
    prof – 3

    3 x 5th run
    1 x win
    prof @ bog 12……. @ sp 9

    1 x 6th run
    0 x win
    prof -1

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