Members Daily Post: 20/08/18 (complete)

Tips x2, Section 1 (comp) , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Thirsk 

3.35 – 

Bossipop (4yo+, + micro dist/class) H3 I1 G1 7/2 S1 S2 S4 

Elysian Flyer (m age) 14 I3 G3 9/2 UP

4.05 – Clenymistra (m age) 6/1 UP

5.05 – 

Zorawar (m age) (hncp debut) 12/1 UP

Storm Ahead (m class) I1 G3 8/1 S2 S6 2nd 

Autretor (m age) 4/1 UP

 

Leicester

2.50 – The Last Debutante (all hncps 5, 3yo+, m age) ES+ I3 G1 6/1 S2 S3A# S6 UP

3.20- Areen Heart (m age) H3 I3 G3 8/1 S4 S5 UP

4.50 – Agadeer (all hncps 5, 3yo+, + m age) ES+ 12/1 S3A UP

 

Windsor 

7.00 – 

Mountain Peak (all hncps 5 yrs, all) ES+ 14/1 S3A

Louie De Palma (m TJC) 8/1 

 

JUMPS

Bangor

6.40 – 

Atlantic Storm (m TJC) I3 6/4 

Beach Break (m runs) w1 30 H1 7/2 

7.40 – 

Stay In Touch (m dist + runs) 30 I3 7/1 (S5 IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

Danceintothelight (m dist + runs) 30 I1 9/1 (S5 IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

8.10 –

Pretty Reckless (m TJC) 30 H1 I3  2/1 

Handy Hollow (m class) 30 H3 I3 6/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 21/218,78p, +4.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +177.5)

Daily Tips

3.05 Thirsk – Queen Penn – 1 point win– 14/1 (gen)  3rd 10/1, ah, clearly wrong to take on the fav there. Ground had dried out a bit but not sure anything was beating that winner today. I’d be surprised if this one doesn’t add to the ‘losing tips’ haul at some point on next three runs, on that evidence. Front three miles clear, solid form for C5 grade and she’d like it softer. May not be 14s next time though. Raced on the pace with ease also back over 7f, her time will come. 

7.00 Wind – Mountain Peak – 1 point win– 25/1 (bv) 22/1 (coral) 20/1 (gen) UP 20/1>8/1. Well, getting value the only positive there. He wasn’t ridden as aggressively as I thought and he had a troubled passage. I’d have to watch it back but I think there was a gap there for a time if good enough but couldn’t force his way through. Maybe just not good enough. About time I/we noted Mosse even more as a jockey upgrade, given his pedigree. One for Guest, they would appear to be back in form. This one will win again, maybe drop into C3 again. 

That’s it for tips, 09.09, write ups…

Queen Penn – this one qualifiers against the ‘top of the class’ angle below which was my starting point and on closer inspection I was a bit bemused as to why she was such a big price. This is her first run of the season on rain softened ground and given her form at the back end of last season, you’d like to think she may run her best race of the season yet. She is a 7f+ horse to my eye so I like the move back up in trip and she also drops into a C5 handicap for the first time. That last run was after 47 days, no doubt being kept away from rattling fast, and she returns just 16 days later here. Hanagan jumps back on and given Fahey has a few runners at Leicester and one at Windsor, there’s a chance it’s significant he’s here today. Trainer and Jockey are 10/41,18p +30 at the track in the last 5 seasons, 7/22,10p in the last year. They are 3/10,6p on 3Yo in handicaps at the track and Fahey is 12/44,24p with all runners here in C5 races in the last 5 years, +57 – 5/18,8p the last 2 years. I thought these looked idea conditions, no excuses, and I expect a big run. She’s way overpriced to my eyes. She does have a tendency to hang left also, so this track could suit, as if she does hang she’ll be up against the far side rail. In truth she may be a wise EW bet, given there is a shorty in here from SBS. I thought he looked a bit too short given the drop in trip may not suit and there is still a question over the going, esp if this is more on the soft side in places. He is thoroughly unexposed and does come here in form, running on the wrong part of the track LTO. Clearly I won’t fall off my seat if he wins this well, but with any luck the selection will give him plenty to think about. 

Mountain Peak…I bit of a poke here but this section 1 qualifier shouldn’t be this big I didn’t think. There is a complete lack of pace in this race (on paper) and when winning at Leicester he made all. I wondered if David Eagan will be aggressive on him as it isn’t impossible that after 1f or so he finds himself dictating up against the nearside rail. There should still be more to come given this is only his 5th turf handicap and I did wonder if his last run was a prep for this, given it came after a 31 day break which is long enough for a sprinter- and his three runs before that were after 16, 14 and 8. He was the last off the bridle LTO also and faded as if he maybe would be sharper for it. I could be wide of the mark there and he simply wasn’t good enough for that C3, and as such will be out of his depth in this C2. But, there was just enough there for me at 20s in what is clearly a competitive race. The fav,Silent Echo, tipped at Goodwood when last seen, should go close. Maybe he will do a Gunmetal, albeit he isn’t 16s here. I suspect they may try and race him more prominent and he’s a danger if they do. If not he will need plenty of luck from the back, but I don’t think Goodwood suited LTO and he didn’t have the best of starts, running on well. That’s probably the strongest sprint form going into this. It felt quite an open race on paper though. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

3.05 T – Fard UP

3.35 T – Kupa River 

Top of the Class

3.05 T – Queen Penn 3rd 

2.20 L – Essenza UP

Jumps

D McCain (14/1< guide) 

6.40 B – Beach Break 

7.40 B – Stay In Touch 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

6.10 – King Muro 

Tom Lacey 

7.40 B – Silk Run 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

7.10 Bang – Red Giant 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

45 Responses

  1. Just a re post of the Sunday evening U.S. Racing Post – Saratoga race 9, 11.02. Max Velocity.

    Good luck.

  2. Red Cymbal Thirsk Monday 15:05 1pt e/w Price available 10/1
    Firmdecisions Leicester Monday 15:20 1pt e/w Price available 8/1
    Agadeer Leicester Monday 16:50 1pt e/w Price available 12/1

    1. They certainly have ‘thrown the kitchen sink’ at Red Symbol!, gelded and cp1 and tongue tie had wind done (w3). interesting Crowley on board , 24/84, 42pl last 2 years when riding for Haggas, and dropped to class 5.

      1. I won’t mention them all but stats very strong in just about every aspect with that one (jockey/trainer, trainer/first time cheek-pieces, jockey/trainer/first time cheek-pieces (3/6), trainer/track, recent trainer form) not to mention the fact that its his first run on ground with cut since his debut. Plus he is meant to have a massive engine but just not been putting it together so far. Not to mention the class 3 he ran at last time was a hot race. Hopefully the gelding/cheek-pieces do the trick.

    2. Lovely job, well done, and a nice double up with SP2A, banged in a couple in recent days when you’ve agreed, 2 points on the nose, i’ll take it! 🙂

        1. yep, thank heaven’s for that! They were due a dip in fairness, but that went on longer than ideal, but appears, rarely, their whole team hit bad form at the same time. They have started reading it very well, plenty of placed efforts also, so hopefully turned a corner. I’ve always backed everything 1 point on the nose, so been testing at times in recent weeks but nice returns last few days. On we go.

    3. Superb stuff, cheers! Running out of superlatives for this website now. I’m way up since I joined thanks for various posts/tips/musing.

    1. have a great day Martin. I don’t have time to flick through this morning sadly, but Nick and I have a couple in the 3.05 and hopefully one of those bolts up! Bossipop and Storm Ahead (if headgear works) look interesting enough for the strategies. Best of luck.

    2. I like Lydiate Lady in the 3.35.

      Horse prefers cut in the ground 3/9 in g/s. Jockey is 1/1 on the horse and 2/3 with the trainer. Horse is 2lbs over LWM but jockey claims 7 so 5lbs below.

  3. Recent Tips
    T 3.35 – Bossipop on 3rd run and Kupa River on 2nd run
    T 4.05 – Fisher Green on 3rd run and Albert Bay on 2nd run
    Festival
    W 7.00 – Silent Echo on 2nd run and Mobsta on 2nd run
    Mike

    1. P/L for w/e 19/8
      DAILY/NOTES

      20 x 1st run
      4 x wins @ 20% sr
      p/l @ bog 25
      p/l @ sp 13.5

      7 x 2nd run
      1 x win @ 14% sr
      p/l @ bog 5
      p/l @ sp -2

      6 x 3rd run
      1 x win @ 17% sr
      p/l @ bog 9
      p/l @ sp 9

      FESTIVAL

      4 x 1st run
      0 x wins
      p/l @ bog and sp -4

      9 x 2nd run
      3 x wins @ 33% sr
      p/l @ bog 16.5
      p/l @ sp 8

      2 x 3rd run
      0 x win
      p/l @ bog and sp -2

      3m+

      1 x 2nd run
      0 x win
      p/l @ bog and sp -1
      Mike

    2. yep thanks Mike, keep up the good work!! 🙂 Appears a few just follow them blind which appears to be a decent way forward on evidence to date this year! I should probably take note of that
      My inability to land on these recent losing tips at double figure winners is starting to annoy me. Albert was the one I stared at longest, given what is a jockey upgrade, 5lb below last win with claim, pace angle/confident would be up there in right spot, and one of few in race with winning form on ground with some ease. Ran ok LTO, maybe over raced, did/ too much, and in any case this is a slightly easier 12f than Leicester. Kings Coinage the one to take out of that mind, possibly very unlucky but if you’re a hold up horse that happens, got no run all the way up the straight and jockey reluctant to pull him out right into the middle. His turn isn’t far away, travelled very well. But, that is annoying, tipping wise. Damn.

  4. COLINS BETS
    Thirsk
    3.35 Bossipop BOG 3/1
    Leicester
    4.20 Five Helmets BOG 7/2
    4.20 Sophosc BOG 9/2
    Windsor
    7.00 Cowboy Soldier BOG 6/1
    7.30 Bashiba BOG 11/1

        1. Our friends at SP2A also put the Snedeker plus 2nd up in the golf through their golf guru,
          Anyone else join that service?
          Very impressed so far

          1. Just a pity the refuse to send out his P/L record. I have asked Kevin directly and Ian but only got excuses back.

          2. I asked Ian a few weeks ago and apparently Kev has been slacking in that department and didn’t keep any so they would only have records from when he joined the SP2A banner as per say.

          3. That’s not what Kevin told me on email exchange. Said he couldn’t send the file on mobile as it was too big! would try from laptop later but didn’t do that either. when he rejoined sp2a I asked Ian and have been given various excuses why it couldn’t be sent. maybe he hasn’t kept records maybe they dont want them sent out. as he was being groomed by sp2a I find it hard to believe he didn’t keep records. I only asked for records as i was advised to do so before signing up to any paid service, which I think is great advice

  5. Chris M Selections:
    Leicester:
    14:20 – Jensue (11/1 gen)
    15:20 – Areen Heart (13/2 gen)
    16:20 – Chonburi (7/1 gen)

    Bangor:
    18:40 – Beach Break (7/2 gen)
    19:40 – Stay in Touch (13/2 gen)

    Thirsk:
    3:05 – Admiral Rooke (8/1 gen)

    Windsor:
    19:30 – Outrage (8/1 gen)

    Results will follow after this post.

    1. Re-Cap w/c 13/8/18:
      18 bets – 6 winners
      S/R: 33.33%
      ROI: 116.67%
      P/L: +21 pts

      Overall:
      282 bets – 57 winnners and 7 N/R
      S/R: 20.73%
      ROI: +17.23%
      P/L: +47.38 pts

      June: -10.4 pts
      July: +33.68 pts
      August: +24.1 (ongoing)

      Well it was a short week last week for me (had Monday & Tuesday off) but it was a very successful one. The 20 point loss from the week before has been wiped out and even a 1 point gain over the last 2 weeks. Nature of the game, ups and downs! Hoping to get another good run of winning weeks going again.

      Happy punting today 🙂

        1. Cheers Ken. I’m sure you will, horse racing is fickle but you’ve got a knack with the AW. Something I wish I had

      1. SWEET winner chris chonburi really smooth tipping day in day out many thanks again having put your bets with nick and colins bet in three seperate betting banks chugging along very nicely well done again

        1. Cheer Paul. Looks like that break really did make the difference on my selections. Hopefully keep this run going 🙂

  6. Paul Hanagan rides for Fahey as Thirsk today as opposed to Leicester, where he also has runners. His rides include the Daily Tips selection in Queen Penn. Jim Crowley also rides at Thirsk for Haggas, including Red Cymbal, who Nick has put up as a selection.
    At Windsor this evening Ryan Moore rides three for Stoute and one for Amanda Perrett in the ultra competitive 7.00. James Doyle is also there for one ride for Haggas, 6.00 Luxor, an unraced two year old, currently 3/1 FAV.
    At Bangor Hendo has one in the first, 5.40, True Companion, making his debut, with a 5LB claimer on, currently 6/1. Dickie Johnson is there to ride two for Greatrex and two for others. I prefer his others, 7.10 Craigmoor and 7.40 Silk Run. The Skeltons are their in full force and Paddy Brennan rides one for Fergal O’Brien, 6.10 King Muro.

    Tips, 7.10 BOD Craigmor, 7.40 BOD Silk Run; 7.30 Win Angel Of The South (Ivory and Winston with a 3YO in a handicap).

    Good luck.

  7. Results update for AW.

    w/c 13th Aug
    Staked 31pts, Profit -16.5pts, ROI -53.23% or £-82.50 to £5 stakes.

    A poor week after a decent run. Fingers crossed for better this week. Next meeting is at Kempton tomorrow. Back tonight with qualifiers.

  8. I did three races at Thirsk.

    Unfortunately price gone on 2
    4.05 French Flyer
    5.05 Storm ahead.
    However my nap is drifting like a barge,
    5.35 Gilmer 25/1

    1. Also like Gilmer. Class drop, better on soft, positive jockey booking and returning blinkers. Lets hope the market is wrong and has missed those positives

  9. I hope somone can help me out here. I wrote a letter to the RP after being asked for £50 to get into Sandown because there was a concert after racing. I was only going for the 2 two year old races. I also took them to task for failing to insist the trainers pre-parade their runners.

    Today I have received an invitation to attend a feedback workshop at Sandown. This suggests to me that the letter may have been published.

    If anyone has yesterdays RP could they have a look and let me know? I’m overseas so don’t have access.
    Thanks
    Hugh

  10. We have the next bet in the starting point chasers today:-
    710 Red Giant Stake 1.3% £13
    State of play is 7 winners from 18 bets and a profit on turnover of 44%

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