Members Daily Post: 18/08/18 (complete)

Daily Tips x3, Festival Tips x2,+ write ups, Section 1 (comp), test zone, Big race stats/trends + shortlist

 

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Doncaster

2.15 – Blue Gardenia (2YO)  20/1 

4.00- Classic Pursuit (micro going) w2 w1H3 G3 9/2 S5 

5.05 – Channel Packet (m going) w1 

 

Ripon

3.15 – Golden Apollo (m TJC) H3 I3 9/1 

4.25 – 

Mikmak (m TJC) w1H3 I3 11/4 

Waarif (m dist move) w2 H1 6/1 S6 

 

Newbury

3.00 – 

Squats (all hncps 5 yrs, all, 3yo+) 14,30ES+8/1 S3A 

Repton (m runs) 28/1 

 

Newmarket (July) 

3.20 – Syrian Pearl (all hncps) 13/2 

 

Chepstow

7.10 – Hedging (all hncps) ES+I3 G1 11/2 S2 S3A#

7.40 – Becca Campbell (all hncps) ES+H3 I3  5/1 S3A#

 

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JUMPS

Perth

1.25 – 

Green Zone (hncp hurdle) 11/1 S2 

Shesthebusiness (m TJC) 66/1 

2.30 – 

Solway Lark (hncp hurdle) H3 I3 11/2 

Kings Song (m runs) H1  15/8 

3.40 – High Expectations (m runs) I1 9/2 

4.15 – Good Traditions (m runs) 30H3 8/1 

 

Market Rasen

7.30 – Tangolan (m class) 7/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 21/214,76p, +8.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +179.5)

 

Daily Tips

3.00 Newbury – Repton – 1 point win – 28/1 (gen) UP 

3.40 Perth – Captain Felix – 1 point win – 7/1 (Sky/WH) 13/2 (gen) UP

700 Market R- Marju’s Quest – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) 

 

Repton…well clearly a bit of a speculative poke but when looking through all the stats quals on this page + my recent losing tips, I could’t resist at the odds. This race seems open enough and I wanted to have a go at him given he runs over a straight 7f on a more conventional track, one where he’s run a decent race over 6f before. I think this is his trip and the big field will help. I think he has the ability for a race like this. I was willing to forgive his run at Goodwood where he didn’t run his race, not for the first time there. LTO was a small field sprint over 6f which wouldn’t have suited him either. It could be that he’s just out of form and is a C4 animal at best, but I wanted to see him in these conditions before coming to a firm conclusion. In the end I couldn’t resist 28s, for a yard where price is rarely an indication as to their chance. 

Captain Felix…given recent success over jumps I thought i’d focus on those cards, outside of all horses listed on this page somewhere which I looked at. I couldn’t work out why he was this price here given I think he brings the best recent hurdles form to the table, should be able to dictate and both his trainer and jockey have made the trek from Newmarket. That’s an awful long way to send a horse that you don’t think should run it’s race. I expect/hope that Jack will send this one to the front and will try to dictate. He won well enough in a C4 two starts back, beating a subsequent winner in the process. He then ran a great race in The Summer Hurdle at MR and he had all the right horses around him there I think. Maybe that run flattered him given nothing came from behind but i’ll take it at face value, as HRB/Inform ratings suggest I should. I’d fear the Richards horse most but hopefully this one can steal a lead and has enough in reserve late on. I thought he should be a 7/2,4/1 shot on the basis of his last two runs, and I do like a jumps front runner…

Marju’s Quest… I think Nick tipped this one LTO from memory but i’m not convinced she stays much beyond 17f, in a strongly run race. I think her lack of stamina beat her the last day esp when combined with her enthusiastic style. I’d maybe be a tad more bullish here if she were the only front runner but she didn’t lead for a long time two starts ago and I thought if she repeated that run over fences, she’d outrun these odds. They remove the hood here which is interesting and we shall see if that works. Noonan will try and get the lead and given another pace pusher fell heavily LTO, and the other is 13, I thought he may be able to see them off. She may fade over the last but I thought there was enough there and she still ran like a horse in form LTO. If she runs up to her best, she’s the one to beat in this. She appears to save most of her best efforts for this track also. 

Elsewhere… no doubt a few of my recent tips running in the 3.15 as per Mikes comment may leave me red faced but I was happy to leave them. Gunmetal is a decent price but was just too poor the last day for me. Were he prominent on the stats shortlist I may have pondered for longer. Growl has a good chance but is short enough for one usually held up. He’ll run well though, provided low isn’t a negative 

Dark Shot… I may have a nibble in the consolation race, which looks rather poor to my eye. However given it has 15 runners I wanted bigger than 8s given he does still have to prove his stamina and this may be a slightly stiff 6f then Goodwood. However, he did run a cracker there and was a bit isolated low, and may have been running on the wrong part of the track. He doesn’t get a useful 7lb off either and I think would be winning from a career high in handicaps. In the end all that put me off, tipping wise, but I hope he runs a big race. I was happy not to tip any of the other recent losing tips at the prices, but I get plenty of those wrong and if you have been backing them systematically for next 3 runs, I think you’d have been doing quite well. 

 

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Festival/Big Race Tips

3.15 Ripon 

Terentum Star – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365) 9/1 (general)  UP (lost all chance at start with stumble) 

Kimberella – 1 point win – 11/1 (gen)  UP (no real excuse) 

Terentum Star… I used the stats as some sort of guide here and Kevin Ryan deserves a win in this race given the placed horses he’s had. This one ticks every box below bar having run above listed level in his career but that’s one of those stats you have to be flexible about. He’s a CD winner, has a high level of big field C2 handicap form to his name, is well drawn, runs on the pace/leads, and looks like he’s been laid out for this. I was initially concerned by the break but some of his best efforts have come fresh and surely this has been the plan. I assessed this race on the basis that it would be quick enough – it’s good/good to firm in places and will only be drying out. They have watered 2mm which tells you everything I think. I’ve assumed that those who are best with cut in the going, and there are plenty, will struggle. IF this one is a1, i expect a big run and would be surprised if he was out of the places. Of the 8 on the initial stats ‘shortlist’, he was the one I liked most. 

Kimberella – this one would be a trends buster for sure but he’s a listed horse at his best and may have too much class for these. He’s sure to run his race, is a CD winner, comes here in fine form, and is well handicapped with the 7lb off. Clearly the inexperienced jockey is a concern but Fahey knows a talent when he sees one, he’s ridden winners, and we’ve seen what Sebastian Woods has done on a Fahey sprint handicapper in a big race. He should track the pace nearside and I thought would run a big race. His last turf handicap run was in the Scottish Sprint handicap at Musselburgh last July where he came a decent 3rd, effectively off 102. He’s off ’98’ here and 6f is more his trip. He seemed to tick plenty of boxes for me and also showed up well on my various ratings sets. (HRB/Inform/GG speed) I thought he was worth a stab at double figures and would be mildly surprised were he not to place at worst.  

Of the rest…well I only wanted two on side in this and decided against Golden Apollo who was my original choice over Terentum Star, so we shall see how that goes. The latter beat him comfortably in one of those York sprints. At a single figure price in a big field I was a tad concerned about the headgear on for the first time but more so the going…i’m not sure he has the pace to lay up when the ground is good/firm and as such may have plenty to do late into this race. I could be wrong. I also didn’t like the fact he’s gone up 5lb for not winning LTO, albeit a decent run. Were this ground on the softer side I may have gone for him but he’s won on the going. I suspect he will run a big race and have taken some cover, for change. As I have with Brian The Snail…I just wanted to see some big field C2 handicapping form and he arrives here on the back of two poor efforts, albeit maybe he doesn’t like Ascot and he probably doesn’t stay 7f. Hamilton gets on well with him but he could just be a C3 animal. There is something niggling at me at 33s though! Along with Reputation and Dark Power they are the big priced clangers, given their place on the stats list below. I decided the former may not be good enough and the latter may want a softer surface. 

Clearly it’s a competitive race and I may not have mentioned the winner. That’s how these goes but with any luck I get a run for my money. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

6.00 MR – Wells Gold 6/1 

Irish Raiders (16/1< guide, been big priced winners at Festivals/big races)

3.40 Perth – High Expectations 9/2 

Flat 

R Fell

4.25 Ripon – Club Wexford 8/1 

Top of the Class

5.35 Newm – Rastacap 10/1 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Some big race stats/trends for now…

Ripon

Great St Wilfred Stakes

10/184, 39 p

10/10 drawn 4 to 17

  • 1-3: 0/29, 5p
  • 18+ : 0/29,4p

10/10 carried 9-3 or less

  • 9-4 or above: 0/44, 8p

10/10 ran over 6f LTO

  • 5f: 0/20,1p
  • 7f+ : 0/18,4p

9/10 had yet to run above Listed level

  • Had run Group 3+ : 1/87,13p
    • Group 3: 0/20,1p
    • Group 2: 0/30,4p
    • Group 1: 1/37, 8p

8/10 carried 8-12-9-2 (exc claims) (8/59,18p, +101)

8/10 finished top 7 LTO (8/95,26p, +24)

7/10 had 3 or fewer runs this season

  • 7/38, 12p, +88

7/10 had run at the track before

  • Had not: 3/71,14p
  • 1+ : 7/113,25p

Other

  • 28/1 or bigger SP: 0/34, 4p
  • Top 4 in weights: 0/44, 9p
  • Bottom/joint bottom weights: 0/25,4p

Trainers:

  • D O’Meara: 3/12,4p
  • R Fahey: 2/27,5p
  • 1 x win: T Easterby/R Whitaker/B Smart/H candy
  • K Ryan: 0/18,6p
  • TD Barron: 0/11,0p

 

Shortlist 

Some caution but those drawn 4-17, 9-3 or less on back, did not run over 5f LTO…leaves 8…

Growl / Golden Apollo / Flying Pursuit / Terentum Star / Al Qahwa  / Dark Power / Brian The Snail / Reputation 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

29 Responses

  1. U.S. Racing Tip – Friday night – Halls Statement 11.54 UK time, Penn National race 3, 7/2 Betfair, 5/2 BET365. Watch the market next two hours.

    Good luck.

    1. The horse won but got hammered in the market. There was a bit of 7/2 about early but then it went to 6/4 and had an an SP of 4/5!

  2. I’ll get these RECENT TIPS up early as I might not get chance in the morning
    Daily/Notes
    D 3.25 – Muntadab on 3rd run
    R 3.15 – Shanghai Glory on 2nd run, and Al Qahwa on 3rd run
    M 6.00 – Midnight Gem on 2nd run
    C 7.10 – Weld Al Emarat on 3rd run
    Festival
    Nb 2.25 – Walton Street on 2nd run
    R 2.05 – Dark Shot on 2nd run
    R 3.15 – Growl on 3rd run, and Gunmetal on 2nd run
    T 4.50 – Maze Runner on 2nd run

    Also running in the 3.15 and won when tipped LTO is Flying Pursuit.
    Ice Age is also a past ‘recent tip’ winner LTO
    Mike

    1. Thanks for keeping posting these Titus, it’s appreciated. I like the logic behind them coming good at some point wether that’s when Josh tips them or soon after. Nice results lately too

  3. No joy on the AW today to end a pretty awful week. -11pts. Still up for the month (just) so here’s hoping for a better end to the month over the next two weeks to get us back up where we were after the first week.

  4. Flat Jockey Losses 🙂

    If you thought the AW was bad the FJP has endured a torrid time over the last 2 weeks. -20pts today for the full list and -8pts for the filtered list.

    I think I’ve come to the end of the line for this system. It’s not so much the losing run, as every system goes through a sticky patch but it’s just taking up too much of my time. I swear I saw Mrs M looking up divorce lawyers the other day 🙂

    For one last hurrah, here are the qualifiers for tomorrow (all at Newbury):

    Adam Kirby (3/1 – 14/1)
    2.25 Walton Street 8/1

    Jim Crowley (5/1 – 18/1)
    1.50 Big Ian 125/1*
    2.25 Algometer 11/2
    3.00 Mizaah 11/1
    3.35 Yafta 10/1
    4.10 Lzaaz 16/1
    4.40 Zzoro 14/1

    * does not qualify for filtered list.

    Now if Big Ian goes in, I might change my mind 🙂

    Good Luck

  5. Save The Bees Doncaster 14/1 5.05pm

    Usually wins a few races a season. Right jockey on.
    Strange way of operating but this years modus operandi could be to win at the tracks where he hasn’t won. Haydock now Donny if ya get my drift.

  6. Nice to get back to winning ways today. Busy Saturday on looks like a cracking day of racing:

    Sea Fox Newbury Saturday 15:00 1pt e/w-Considering the races he has ran in this year easier. Was rated 106 in the past so i think there is still room in his mark and Evans is not messing about has booked SDS who has a great record for the trainer. Today low appeared best and hopefully Silvestre can lead them a merry dance.

    Teruntum Star Ripon Saturday 15:15 1pt e/w-Won the consolation race last year on this card and followed up in a good race at York off 1lb lower off a similar break as today. I suspect this has been the plan. Seems to fit most of the trends and I’d rather be drawn high at Ripon. Has a decent amount of pace on his side and should be up there and expect him to go close.

    My Amigo Newmarket Saturday 15:20 1pt e/w-Went close in the Steward’s Cup consolation race and takes a massive step down in class with the cheekpieces/tongue tie combo which are retained today. Has been dropped 3lb for that run also. Gets a massive jockey upgrade with PJ jumping on board who rides the track as well as anyone. This is the first time he has been on whilst the horse has been trained by Fife having gone 2/10, 6p on the flat for previous trainers so he know him well. Should be either leading or close to the pace. the fact that he stays further is a bonus I think after today’s winner. I would have liked to have been drawn a little higher however at the price you can’t have everything.

    Muntadab Doncaster Saturday 15:25 1pt e/w-Form of his 3rd at York has worked out well with the 1st winning a grade 3, 2nd a class 2 and 4th to 7th all placing in good class 2 handicaps. He than ran a solid race in the Bunbury Cup which has worked out well. This is much easier. He is 2/5, 4p at the track and there is a reasonable chase he can get an easy lead. Jockey is good value for his 5lb claim.

    Rastacap Newmarket Saturday 17:35 1pt e/w-Another one for PJ who has a great record here and more importantly he looks to almost certainly get an easy lead here. Would ignore his run last time out as he lost all chance at the start. Before that he beat 2 horses who have won since. Hopefully another who will make all.

          1. You have the bookies running scared! You must soon be approaching the status of ‘Tipping Jedi Knight’.

  7. My take on the St Wilfred re the stats above are.
    Tarentum Star qualifies on all bar he ran in a C1 2yo G2 races in 2014. I take it this still counts?
    NB Golden Apollo fails on 3 runs or less
    NB Pipers Note fails on 3 runs or less and drawn 1

    Mike

  8. Two nice wins guarantees profit for the week and a couple of winners today could wipe out lasts weeks big losses. On to today’s selections.

    Chris M Selections:
    Doncaster:
    16:00 – Classic Pursuit (6/1 gen)

    Ripon:
    15:15 – Golden Apollo (9/1 gen)
    16:25 – Waarif (6/1 gen)

    Newmarket:
    14:45 – Jawwaal (9/2 gen)
    15:55 – Forcetoreckon (13/2 gen)

    Good luck with your bets today!

  9. COLINS BETS
    Ripon
    2.40 Tin Hat BOG8/1
    Newmarket
    2.45 Rebel Sreak BOG9/2
    Doncaster
    3.25 Normandy Barriere BOG 3/1
    4.35 Tight Lines BOG 7/1
    Chepstow
    5.10 Glamorous Rocket BOG 15/8
    6.40 Kinglami BOG 10/1
    8.10 Macho Mover BOG 5/2

  10. Josh, re Kimberella – You say you’d be mildly surprised if it didn’t place at worst. I’m wondering why you don’t go each way on it. Many bookies also paying for extra places though I realise you probably wouldn’t count those in your stats.

    1. just personal preference really. I didn’t want more than 2 points on the race really, and I hate going 1/2 point EW, so 1 point win it is! Odds not really worth it at 10s/11s for me. I’m not really fussed about losing 1 point, were he to not place, losing 2 irks me a bit more at those odds. a 25s+ shot is maybe a bit different but then i mainly consider EW then if I fear any market leaders, as I did in the Wokingham. Of course you’re free to follow how you please.

  11. Not done a ITV 7 for a bit, so here goes.

    Race 1: 13:50 Newbury
    3 Good Fortune

    Race 2: 14:05 Ripon
    8 Red Pike

    Race 3: 14:25 Newbury
    7 Raymond Tusk

    Race 4: 14:45 Newmarket
    4 Rebel Streak

    Race 5: 15:00 Newbury
    7 Mystic Flight

    Race 6: 15:15 Ripon
    9 Pipers Note

    Race 7: 15:35 Newbury
    6 Gustav Klimt

    Good luck all for today 🙂

  12. I couldn’t beat a one legged man in an arse kicking contest at the moment (sorry if I’ve offended anyone) but here go’s with my 4 all E/W.
    Market Rasen 6.30 Golans Choice 8/1 was still running ok when Ran Out last time.
    Market Rasen 7.00 Marju’s Quest 6/1 I’m with josh here these are a poor bunch and clear on the ratings.
    Tramore 6.50 Water Sprite 15/2, Following the same route as last year when he won this.
    Chepstow 8.10 Rainbow Jazz 11/1, comes out well on speed ratings at the price and runs from the front.

    I must mention a total outside who I think might get a place in the 6.30 at Market Rasen, L’Es Fremantle 100/1 Bet 365 this is his trip as he go’s pretty slow but on recent evidence he seems better right handed and has run ok here the last few times at this distance couple of quid E/W

    fingers crossed for profit today, good luck all.

    Greg

  13. Ah Gunmetal, bugger. 16s, tipped at Goodwood LTO. Painful when they win like that. My two poor albeit T lost it at the start really.

  14. PJ shows why he has a better record at the July Newmarket handicaps than anyone else in the past 2 years. 14s into 5s.

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