Members Daily Post: 17/08/18 (complete)

Tips x2, Section 1 (comp) , test zone , musings…

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Newbury 

4.00- Island Of Life (all hncps 5 yrs, all, 3yo+) 14,30 ES+ H3 I1 G3 7/4 S2 S3A# S4 S5 2nd 

 

Nottingham

2.00 – Socialites Red (all hncps) I3 18/1 3rd 

2.35 – Optimickstickhill (all hncps) I3 G1 11/2 S2 UP

4.45 – Paramount Love (3yo+, + micro TJC/class/age) G3 20/1 UP

 

Newmarket July 

5.55 – 

Hansolo Berger (all hncps) 14 14/1 UP

Zeyzoun (all hncps) 14 10/1 3rd 

 

Catterick

7.1o – Ayton (m dist) 33/1 UP

8.15 – (late addition) 

Mr Enthusiastic (m dist) 40/1 UP

Lackaday (m dist) 33/1 UP

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JUMPS

Irish Bonus Stats 

Tramore

5.30 – Castlewhite (all hncps) ES+ 22/1 S2A S3A  UP

7.35 – Glendine River (hncp hurdle) 16/1 S2A UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 20/212,75p, -0.6) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +179.5)

Daily Tips

5.30 Tramore – Ole Supporter – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) WON 10/1 

8.05 Newm – Isomer – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP

that’s all for tips, 10am, write ups…

Old Supporter... i started looking at this race due to the qualifier above but ended up quite liking this old timer who I thought should be a shade shorter in the market and was the most likely winner if the fav fluffs his lines on his return to chasing. This CD winner likes to make all and I think he will get the lead…the fav also likes to get on with it, but doesn’t have to lead, and i’d be surprised if they were ultra aggressive given how long he’s spent over hurdles. If he bounces out and jumps well then I’ll be in big trouble, because he’s been hacking up over hurdles, in races with subsequent winners in behind, and is thrown in off this chase mark IF reproducing that hurdles form. But, this is a tricky little jumps track and he is 0/5,0p over fences and hasn’t run in a chase for a while. I thought he was worth taking on at the odds, but I won’t fall off my seat if he bolts up. If he doesn’t I thought this one would be the likely winner given he may get the lead, he arrives in form, is a CD winner, below his last winning mark and likes returning within 10 days or so..3/10,6p over fences on the back of a quick turnaround. He is solid and had a few of these in behind the last day. It’s a bit of a stab given his age but he should give me some fun for a time at least. Hopefully he can dictate. 

Isomer... I tipped this one when a NR runner last time and given the form of the yard, the drop back into a C3 and the return to ground that isn’t a road, I was happy to play at 12s. He races on the pace, should be in the right spot, and his jockey knows him well enough having ridden the last twice. He won two starts back when returned to C3, has some smart form to his name, and looked solid. There are a few interesting 3 year olds in this, esp the top two in the market, and maybe it will seem foolish for taking them on, but they do have to step forward on recent runs and prove it, which one of them may do. That C2 run on the other course back in April, the last time he encountered turf with juice in, was solid, and has produced a few winners since. If he could repeat that level of performance I thought he’d outrun these odds. Dawaaleeb also runs in this, an old ‘Festival’ tip I think from a big handicap, who was selected at massive odds due to being on the trends shortlist for the race, and he was doing something different with the trip move, which didn’t work out. I have left him here, tipping wise, due to the fact his best form is on fast but more so that he doesn’t have the form as yet at a higher class, unlike the selection. He has a few more questions I think but I could be wrong 

Elsewhere…I looked at the two Chris Wall horses in the 5.55 and I wouldn’t be shocked if either left me a tad annoyed but just a few too many niggles there for me to be comfortable parting with 1 point on each. I’d probably favour Zeyzoun who gets a bigger field here and drops in class, and may appreciate the lack of form also. I was concerned at his now single figure odds that he’s a hold up horse (which is always a danger anyway) in a race without any out and out front runners. It could be they don’t go quick enough again and there isn’t a pace collapse. On the flip side he gets the services of The Doyler, and trainer/jockey are 7/15,9p when teaming up in handicaps. I’ll probably have a 1/4 point on each, just in case, with preference for Nick’s winning. 

Right, i’d better start looking to tomorrow and what big races to attack…

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

The Doyler

6.30 Newm- Wojood

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Looking back/looking forwards… some random thoughts…

There have been more positives than negatives in recent days on the ‘daily tipping’ front and i’m reading it a bit better than I was, I think. No issue with front runners getting caught late, that’s the nature of the beast and i’ll find enough that stay out in front… when the luck is really on your side the odd one will cling on thanks to a horse in behind hitting trouble! Had Arnold had a delayed passage for 1/2 a second more, then i’d be sat here with +7 points on the day, but that’s racing for you. Some other horses…

Foxrush Take Time…i’ve just watched it again and don’t know what to think! He was slow away and i’m not sure if by design. No doubt the jockey was riding to instructions but for the life of me I have no idea why you hold up a horse in 1st blinkers that is proven to stay further, and has often been running on over 8f in soft. You’re wasting the potential positive of the headgear. In terms of how the race panned out he didn’t have an excuse as the winner was behind him. He was more nearside during the race but ended up on the far rail, having flown for a time mid race. Very strange. Given his profile i suspect he has a weak handicap in him and will hopefully bolt up soon. Mohart was well backed, 25/1>10/1 and one or more of these will go in at some point. He ran an odd race, running up the back of horses a few times and still running as if mentally immature to me. He may just not be very good, but maybe a more galloping track will suit. He travelled well for a long way in this but was asked to make up ground while on a constant turn which is never easy. 

Red Charmer… a 14/1 winner that got away, being a recent losing tip. My thanks for Mike for posting them. I tried valiantly to keep on top of them in section 2 but I’m finding it too hard, and my tracking ability still leaves much to be desired. I think my racing/blogging head is on it’s limits, and even more so when there is a big festival approaching/in the middle of it and that help is much appreciated. But, they are a rich source of future winners it would seem and given i’ve put in the effort once when tipping them, I really should be trying a bit harder. Anyway, to this horse… if truth be told I looked at the fact that it was an Amateur riders handicap and couldn’t be bothered to take a deeper look, possibly scarred with the experience from the day before with the Balding horse. I didn’t even put it up in the ‘through the card’ and don’t know why. Had I bothered to look at him i’d have seen he was 4lb below his last winning mark and that in the seller LTO, he finished 1 1/4 length behind Jacbequick, who was rated 74 in the race. Red Charmer was rated 50, and had to give the winner 10lb in weight also. Were that a handicap he’d have been receiving 24lb. AND he then came out and won again. That was over 10f and he hit the front, just getting outstayed late on. He’d been running well this season, with a few races working out well with some decent placed efforts. 14s seems big in that context. The trainer was 0/29 at the course in the prev 5 years, but that’s irrelevant given she bought the horse 15 days ago and he’s a CD winner. No logic to using that stat as a negative, certainly not 15 days on from the seller. So, he ticked most boxes really, one that got away. I’ll try and see the positives. 

From two days ago.. I think Zambeasy will make all at some point, he’s running well enough, maybe when there is more juice in the ground. He got a good ride but bumped into a more unexposed rival. That one got a first time hood, had some decent form from the year before, and had apparently boiled over pre race LTO. I suppose Rab Havlin in the plate and at the course for only the one ride was some indication as to their hopes. Face Like Thunder…maybe he responds to the whip! Or he sulks if not leading, or we just put a line through that. He’s still unexposed and Balding will find a race for him. Be Kool will go in one day, and at a price I suspect. Who know’s if we will be on when he does. He’s won from on the pace before, and from being held up. He can be headstrong and I suspect they may try burying him next time. He ran well, a solid 3rd, with the right two horses in front of him. Hoping for some many youngsters to fluff their lines was clearly foolish but 25s shots seem to have that effect on me! 

There was one thing of note from that hands and heels race, as a learning point… the winning rider, Theo Ladd, commented how his horse appreciated the drop to 7f from 8 as he is very headstrong and was keen LTO… the theory was that they would go quicker over 7f, a faster pace, and that would allow him to settle. That logic was buried in my head somewhere, but it’s always good to be reminded of the nuances of racing etc. Note the keen horse being dropped in trip, and given a chance to settle. The two other ways I can think of when trying to settle a keen sort are to try and make all and settle them on the front, or, to run them in a higher class (so again, stronger pace)…we have discussed that with Really Super, as she is still headstrong, and there is a chance she’d appreciate a much strong pace to settle in behind. 

To the Racing Post…I spent most of my train journey back to Suffolk catching up with recent editions and made some notes on various points of interest, for you to use as you please…

  • Henry Candy: his horses have been wrong since York’s May meeting. Chain of Daisies indicated they are starting to come back to themselves. 
  • Karen McLintock... she’s had a virus in the yard and only sent out one runner in July. Signs of life now, 2 winners from last 5 runners. Worth keeping an eye on. 
  • David Loughnane... his Salisbury winner took his total to 16 for the season which matched the whole of last year. He’s yet to run half of his yard, having been waiting for softer ground. I found that interesting. It would appear that’s he fully settled now having moved base last year I think, or maybe the year before. He may well have better horses in his yard and/or he’s improving as a trainer. Another yard to keep an eye on. 
  • Brain Power... an interview with his owner…he’s always worked the house down at Henderson’s but rarely shown it on the track. He’s had some work done on a kissing spine and has had a wind op. They are hopeful he’ll show more on the track it seems. Time will tell. 
  • Dave Crosse…has been out injured but has started riding out again, and does a bit for Henry Oliver and he rides horses owned by Mark Dunphy… the jockey is very excited about Kilfilum Crosse, who won twice over hurdles. He should be a better chaser and in his words ‘he’s potentially the one i’ve been looking for all my life’. Interesting. 
  • Roundhead...keep an eye on if going over jumps…bought out of Hannon’s for 6k, Tuer has since won twice with him but plans to sell him at the October Sales. ‘The jumps boys will love him’. I also notes that Jacbequick was bought out of the claimer he won LTO by David Pipe, for 8k. It will be interesting what he can get out of him over timber. 
  • As an idea, and there may be no stats of use, but I will take a look at ex Richard Hannon inmates and how they may do when sold. His yard is more ‘racing factory’ I suspect with all horses having to fit to the same routine. This won’t suit some horses and no surprise when the odd one improves for a smaller yard/more individual attention. 
  • Just Glamourous… the horse I tipped at the Shergar Cup. It turns out the trainer was really looking forward to the run. Sadly the horsebox broke down on the way, hence being a NR! 
  • Jim Goldie…a horse to follow from the yard – Primo’s Comet..nice horse, still learning his trade. 

 

Hopefully something of use in that lot for you 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

33 Responses

  1. U.S. Racing Tip Thursday evening, Saratoga race 8, UK time 10.19, Cool Beans. 11/1 on Betfair.

    Good luck.

    1. Nice one Martin. Missed the race but the profit in my bank told me it was a winner. Got 11/1 with PP. Thanks for posting these.

  2. Come On Leicester Newbury Friday 15:30 1pt e/w Price available 8/1
    Lady Freyja Newmarket Friday 17:55 1pt e/w Price available 9/1

  3. Pink Iceberg 50/1 (PP) 3:30 Newbury
    Last 4 races 3412 did her best at 5f at Yarmouth
    Richard Hughes/Shane Kelly going well
    Race may be too hot for her but worth a try st the odds

  4. Pacino came home at 8/1 SP/BOG for 1pt profit on the day.

    Two meetings at Wolves and Chelmsford on Friday. Qualifiers below:
    Wolves
    2.10 Arishka 13/2
    2.45 Brandy Station 4/1
    3.15 So Hi Storm 5/1
    4.20 Bo Samraan 4/1
    4.50 With Good Grace 6/1

    Chelmsford
    5.50 Sparklealot 8/1
    6.50 Salateen 13/2
    7.20 Corinthia Knight 9/2 & Zac Brown 25/1 (EW)
    7.55 Secret Art 10/1
    8.30 Cat Royale 5/1
    9.00 Strictly Art 8/1

    1pt win each except where noted EW

    Good Luck

  5. A very rare foray into a tip from me and i am up against The Mighty Mazur…what are the chances??!! Anyway I have obviously backed Nick’s as a matter of course but understand from connections that Heartwarming (3.30 Newbury) has a great chance on the way to bigger things later in the season.

    Cheers

    Ben

  6. Flat Jockey Profits

    Difficult to decide what to do tomorrow with no fewer than four jockeys racing at Nottingham and 17 qualifiers for the full list and eleven for the filtered list.

    Qualifiers as follows (all Nottingham)
    SDS (5/2 – 11/1)
    1.30 Make a Wish 8/1
    2.00 The Lacemaker 5/1
    2.35 Madam Devious 5/2

    Jim Crowley (5/1 – 18/1)
    1.30 Qutob 5/6*
    3.05 Rewaayat 12/1
    3.40 Shaji 12/1
    4.10 Faithful Mount 8/1
    4.45 Caravela 10/3*

    William Buick (3/1 – 28/1)
    1.30 With Envy 6/1
    3.05 Magical Sight 3/1
    3.40 With A Start 7/4*
    4.10 Island Brave 5/1
    4.45 Gumrriyah 7/4*

    Paul Hanagan (2/1 – 14/1)
    1.30 Camber 6/1
    3.40 Joie De Vivre 14/1
    4.10 Ravenous 40/1*
    4.45 Paramount Love 22/1*

    * does not qualify for filtered list

    Good Luck

    1. Lots of meetings today and the top jockeys are scattered. James Doyle and Ryan Moore are at Newbury. Moore for Hannon and Doyle for Haggas mainly. The Doyler then heads back to Newmarket and rides 4, 2 for Hugo Palmer. Ryan Moore has an evening off and may well be out for a few pints and a curry (Am I confusing him with brother Jamie)?

      William Buick, Jim Crowley and Paul Hanagan are at Nottingham. Buisk is there for Hagges, Hanagan for Fahey and Jim for various trainers. Tom Dascombe and Richard Kingscote have two at Wolverhampton on the sand; 3.15 Five Amorones and 3.50 Admiral Spice.

      SDS is at Chelmsford this evening, one for Mark Johnston and a few for other trainers. Sir Mark teams up with Luke Morris there for Twister in the 9.00.

      So lots of volume today. Good luck.

  7. RECENT TIPS
    Daily/Note
    W 1.40 – Brockey Rise on 2nd run (has won at wolves)
    N 8.05 – Isomer, nr 11/8 so 1st run ( I always back these if a nr for obvious reasons)
    Festival
    8.05 – Dawaaleeb on 2nd run (back to a mile)

    Nice return again yesterday and all the recent winners have benefitted from easier going. Has it just been too firm through July/early Aug?
    Mike

    1. cheers Mike, thanks for those. missed them completely. Don’t think either has much of a chance, but you never know!
      It may well have been too firm for plenty… hard to tell unless you run a horse on it as officially GF may be fine, but could be the undersoil and complete lack of any spring at plenty of tracks…also, as important, will have been the impact on training at home and inability to use grass gallops etc, so some may have been underperforming as trainers have had to change regimes, or not been able to get as much fast work into them as possible. Maybe. In any case, tipping wise, we are getting into no excuses territory now! Albeit Nick hasn’t really struggled on the fast ground!!
      Yesterday’s missed winner…not tipped and I didn’t have a penny on but know you would have, really was a missed opportunity.
      Josh

  8. nice day out at Beverley yesterday except on betting front, 0/7 3 places which i did ew Lean on Pete 7-1, Bondi Beach Boy 9-1 and Power Sail 9-1. Bondi Beach Boy was a tad unlucky just collared on the line from where i was i thought he’d won but alas no.
    Pesci is a stunning looking horse and travelled well until the hill could be worth another go on a flatter course.
    I’m off to Thirsk monday so i’ll be pestering you again Josh 🙂

  9. U.S. Racing Tip – Penn National race 3, 11.54 PM UK time, Halls Statement, circa 6/1. Penn is not on Oddschecker but is on Bet365 and some other sites. With the U.S. markets they tend to open up 3 or 4 hours before the off and then prices collapse near the off and so it is important to get on within the time frame suggested.

    Good luck.

  10. Chris M Selections:
    Newmarket:
    19:30 – Sussex Girl (13/2 gen)
    20:05 – Argentello (7/2 gen)

    Dundalk
    17:15 – Lady Marengo (12/1 gen)

    Nottingham
    15:40 – Autmn War (11/2 gen)

    Tramore
    20:10 – Vics Little Miss (10/1 gen)

  11. COLINS BETS
    Wolverhampton
    1.40 Peggie Sue
    1.40 Ingleby Molly
    Nottingham
    2.35 Spin Top
    Newbury
    Cliffs Of Dover
    Chelmsford
    6.50 Poet’s Society
    8.30 Cat Royale
    9.00 Final Choice

    1. indeed he did …… loving that virtual race simulator .. shame its about 5 mins behind reality 🙂 i think it did what you said would be on the side of the can josh …….. dictated had a breather and the wiley old supporter out stayed them to the line … jumped like a stag on the cartoon verssion ..lol 🙂
      cheers again
      bc

  12. Well that was exciting Josh!!! Ole Supporter was very brave and battled back brilliantly, never thought he was going to fend off both of the others after getting headed twice, nearly tipped the screen up to help him over the line!!

  13. haha, cheers both, what a boy! Very canny ride when he got taken on by the grey, prob got outpaced a tad but he’d have lost that if jockey got after him straight away…let him get to the front again as grey faded… I thought he’d lost that live, and even in slow mo! But a strange angle at line it seems. Good ride, kept to inside and his overall round of jumping has won that. Fav went at the first fence, but thankfully got up fine I think. I’ll take that! Daily tips haven’t been to the heady heights of +8 for a while!! +21 or so in last month I think, need to step on it.

  14. Yeeeeehah, Nick & Josh double comes in, thanks chaps…A massive thanks..hope you have a great weekend, if Luna Bear or Isomer comes in then that will be the icing on a very fat cake!!!

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