Members Daily Post: 16/08/18 (complete)

Tips x3, Section 1 (comp), test zone , York stats , Bev ‘through card’ thoughts

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Beverley 

3.30 – Seamster (all hncps) I3 10/1 

5.00 – 

Vigee Le Brun (4yo+ 5 yrs, 4yo+, + micro class/age) ES+ H1 5/6 S3A 

Mr Cool Cash (all hncps + m class) 14 I1 G3 20/1 S2 S6 

 

Yarmouth

6.25 – Courtside (all hncps 5 yrs, all) w2 ES+H3 G3 13/8 S3A# S5

7.30 – Late Change (all hncps 5 yrs,all) w2 w1 ES+H1 I3 G3 9/4 S2 S3A# S4

8.00 – Ocean Temptress (3yo+, + m class) I3 14/1 

 

Chepstow

5.05 – 

Shoyd (m dist) w1 H1 10/3 

One Liner (m dist) 14,30 20/1 

5.35 – Berkshire Boy (4yo+ 5 yrs, 4yo) 14 ES+ I1 7/1 S3A S6 

 

Salisbury

None. 

*

Jumps

Irish Bonus Stats

Tramore

6.30 – 

Just Get Cracking (all hncps) ES+ H1 10/1 S3 S2 S3A

Icelip (hncp hurdle) 13/2 

7.35 – 

Double Windsor (hncp hurdle) w2  11/1 S2 

Mohart (all hncps + hncp chase) ES+ 25/1 S2A S3A

 

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 20/209,74p, +2.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +179.5)

Daily Tips

3.30 Bev – Bondi Beach Boy – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen)

6.55 Yarm – Foxrush Take Time – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen)

7.35 Tram – Mohart – 1 point win – 25/1 (bet365/bv) 20/1 (gen)

that’s all for tips, 09.00, write ups…

 

Bondi Beach Boy… the only way that this isn’t a good bet at the odds is if the weather forecast is wrong and they have far more rain than anticipated…which is a danger. But, as of 40 minutes ago or so the ground was still good to firm after 4mm of rain overnight, with light drizzle still falling through to 12pm or so. I’ve worked on the basis that this will be no worse than Good, and if it’s good to soft or soft come this race, that’s 1 point I’ve probably loaned back to the bookies. The BHA website doesn’t appear to have any going updates for any fixtures as yet, something broken there it seems. So, i’ve resorted to track updates via twitter and BBC weather. Anyway, if this is good at worse, then 9s is a silly price and he should be half that and arguable favourite for me. If he was coming here on the back of his CD win two starts back, he would be. I’m happy to draw a line through that Ponte run. He did get into a scrap on the front end albeit given the horse that raced with him went onto win, i’m not sure how much weight to put onto that. But, i’m happy to forgive any horse/a sprinter one bad run, if in form before. It isn’t impossible they pencilled in this race before that Ponte run and went easy on him before it. Maybe he just sulks a bit in his old age now if not getting the lead. He hacked up here two starts back and given he’s won off 82 in the past and at a higher class, I won’t be blaming his 7lb rise. I’m not sure that would have stopped him here two starts back and the horse in 3rd that day has since come out and won. If he breaks on terms here I think he should get the lead, even from his wider draw. Nothing else in here makes all consistently with most liking to take a lead/be held up. Provided the rain hasn’t got in too much, I thought he had a decent chance of improving on his 6/10,8p over course and distance- he does like it here! As I write 9s was just too big to my eyes. Maybe he’s just gone out of form as quickly as he came into it but his trainer hasn’t had him long and he’s good with these older sprinters. He’ll win more races here before his days are out.

Foxrush Take Time… Richard Guest is ‘in form’ with a couple of winners in the last 14 days and they appear to be running better after a torrid year as previously discussed. This ground could be very testing come race time. It’s already on the soft side and if the forecasts are to be believed they are going to get plenty more. I’d be mildly surprised if this wasn’t soft come this race and it could be on the heavy side. This horse has never been out of the places in the mud in three handicap runs. He stays 8f which is no bad thing and while he’s yet to win he has some solid placed efforts to his name, inc in a C4. He arrives here on the back of two moderate runs on the AW but could be seen to much better effect on this straight track in the slop. He gets first time blinkers here and the trainer’s record with those would not put you off on one at a price. He is 1/5,4p in handicaps when booking Andrew Elliot and they do have a more fancied one earlier on the card. I expect a change in tactics here and i’d be disappointed if they didn’t try and make all, or in any case be right up there. He also moves into an all age handicap, of which he’s only raced in once. Of course he may not take to the headgear but if he does, I can’t see him being far away here at all. An interesting one at the odds and i’ve a feeling there could be a big run in him today. I’ll pay at 12s to find out, in what is a moderate race where everything has something to prove.

Mohart… one from the bonus Irish Stats qualifiers above, from the main jumps stats pack (i need to start researching next season’s soon! I’ll find the 40 hours somewhere between now and October!). This one shouldn’t be 20s for a trainer who likes to target this track. This horse gained his handicap mark through running in soft/heavy ground maiden/novice hurdles. After a break he returned two starts back at this track over 16f. He was well enough fancied that day at 11/2 but I don’t think he had the pace for 16f and still looked a bit inexperienced. They dawdled in that race and he didn’t have the turn of foot required but it was encouraging. Unsurprisingly they stepped him up in trip on the back of that but all the way to 25f. He went well for a long way there and looked like he may get involved turning for home. In the end he folded in a way which suggested he didn’t stay the trip. As such I was interested in this drop back in trip to the intermediate distance. Based on those two runs this could be ideal. I suspect we will see more from him one day as he’s from a decent enough jumping family with relatives who were handy enough and i’m sure his canny trainer will find a race for him at some point. With any luck it’s today. I have backed him on the nose as is my want but an EW bet would probably have been the wiser decision…mainly as there are 4 places and the fav is a big danger…he may make all and hack up, IF he can stand up. His jumping was sloppy a few starts back and he fell when clear LTO. That may have knocked his confidence but if he puts in a clear round his style is suited to this tight track, and he could be hard to peg back. Hopefully Enright doesn’t hold this one up too far back, as you want to be handy enough here. I was happy to roll the dice at the odds. The trainer has had a 20/1 winner at the course so maybe the market won’t guide but I wouldn’t mind seeing some money. Given his unexposed profile I thought he should be much shorter, in what is an open race if you take out the fav. The trainer does well with horses here returning 60+ days off so the 52 day break doesn’t concern me, in the context of his price. Fingers crossed.

*

That’s the lot for today. I did have a flick through my list of recent tips etc that Mike has posted below, but nothing I wanted to be with again at the prices. I’d like to see Ingleby McKenzie run well and I did look at the race given the qualifiers above. No doubt i’ve picked the wrong J Dullea horse and I may have change on Just Get Cracking, who has a superb course record. But, it looked a competitive race. Smitty Becall may give the Mullin’s pair something to think about but his price looked about right and then there is Escobar…they travel over to Ireland for a Group 3, in a race O’Meara has won before with Custom Cut. I didn’t think 11/2 was overly generous given he has to prove his class…but in a race lacking any out and out pace, it is there to be won from the front. Maybe Tudhope will be scarred after that Goodwood experience and will decide to blast out this time! 

*

NOTE: i’m travelling back to Suffolk later today for a weekend of belated Bday celebrations on ‘home’ turf…I should be sat working again by 5am 5pm! so Section 1 should be up by 6pm as usual, and you won’t notice anything different this weekend…albeit Sunday may be a bit quieter! 🙂

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

Top of the Class

2.00 Bev – Donnago 33/1 

The Doyler

5.20 Yarm- Golden Valour 11/2 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

York Ebor Meeting 2018

Trainer/jockey/owners stats report HERE>>>

There will be 6 handicaps that I will focus on, as well as using any ‘qualifiers’ from the stats above as ‘starting points’, and no doubt some ‘through the card’ starting points also. We shall see how well we do at this ‘festival’ and i’ll try and build on the profit haul to date with ‘festival tips’. I will pull together some stats/trends for those 6 races at some point.

*

Beverley ‘Through The Card’ Notes (as requested)

I’d take the following with a large pinch of salt, a rather quick flick through…

2.00 – Glass Slippers – could be in a different league to these… for fun money if you must, Donago / Nettie Honeyball

2.30 – Spirit Kingdom

3.00 – Lean on Pete / Bittersweet

3.30 – Bondi Beach Boy (tip)

4.00 – Dagueneau

4.30 – Placebo Effect / Power Sail

5.00 – Vigee Le Brun should bolt up again here I think… fun EW bets on Mr Cool Cash / Arcane Dancer maybe.

*

 

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

28 Responses

    1. download a VPN like tunnelbear or hola. switch it on to uk when you use bookies. from memory 365 are ok but Ladbrokes not. it’s a bit hit and miss

      1. Currently in Spain myself, fly back tomorrow. Tunnel Bear works for BF, PP, WH, BFE. Closed down on Bet365 but last year had to bet via phone not WiFi. £7.99 for a month. Also allows SkyGo on laptop but not IPad. Faboulous 28-30 degrees, Enjoy!

    2. I found that I could place bets via oddschecker if I was connected via 3G/4G but not via wi-fi. Worth a try.

  1. A late winner by Penny Poet salvaged what looked like another blank day on the AW. Reduced the deficit to -1.5pts.

    Back to Wolves on Thursday. Qualifiers below:
    1.20 Cracking Speed 8/1
    1.50 Pacino 6/1
    2.50 Bellevarde 6/1 & Global Rose 13/2
    3.50 Fieldsman 5/1 & Secret Memories 10/1
    4.20 Point Hope 4/1
    4.50 Howardian Hills 10/1

    1pt win each

    Good Luck

  2. Flat Jockey Profits

    One winner for the full list to give +1pt profit. Nothing on the filtered list so -4pts. No qualifiers for tomorrow.

    1. The leading jockeys are scattered far and wide today. At Salisbury Ryan Moore rides for Hannon, Stoute and Simcock. William Buick also heads to Salisbury for 3 rides for various trainers.
      In the evening SDS goes to Chepstow for a book of rides including for Johnston and Appleby. At Yarmouth in the evening James Doyle is in attendance to ride for various trainers. Also there is Atzeni for different trainers.
      No real conclusions to be drawn from the above.

      The U.S. Racing Tip runs in the UK today, at Salisbury in the 3.40, Carlini, circa 10/1.

      Good luck.

      1. Suggestions for the softening ground:-
        300 Booborowie
        330 Piazon – needs a paddock check 4mth absent; Point of Woods
        400 Tommy Docc
        430 Gamesters Icon
        500 John Caesar; Make On Madam

  3. RECENT TIPS
    Daily/notes
    B 4.00 – Precision on 2nd run
    5.00 – Red Charmer on 3rd run
    Y 4.45 – John Joiner on 3rd run
    Festival
    T 6.30 – Ingleby Mackenzie on 2nd run
    7.00 – Smitty Bacall on 2nd run
    L 7.20 – Escobar on 2nd run
    Mike

      1. haha…i’m more frustrated I didn’t tip the bugger! Did jump out as a value bet if looking with the right eyes…not sure why I skipped past him for through the card – think I just forgot he was an option! Looked at him for tipping purposes but saw it was an apprentice handicap, and he was drawn fairly wide and thought i’d just move on – possibly scarred by my apprentice/hands and heels experience the day before. Given his recent form it was not surprise he won like that, once looking properly. Another gets away, i’ll get good at the daily tipping game one day.
        Josh

  4. As Paul put it, back with a bang yesterday. 2 from 3 winners giving 8pts profit to advised prices. Add to that the nice winner from Josh, good day 🙂

    Chris M Selections:
    Tramore:
    19:35 – Double Windsor (11/1 gen)

    Beverley:
    14:00 – Rapture (9/2 gen)

    Leopardstown:
    17:45 – Ducky Mallon (11/2 gen)
    20:20 – Intermedia (5/1 gen)

    Yarmouth:
    18:25 – Kharbetation (8/1 gen)

    Good luck with your bets today!

      1. Just watched the race and for me an unlucky loser,it always comes with a late rattle from behind and did not have a clear run,having to switch.
        Sure it will be brought out again soon,a winner waiting.

  5. Sad news about Towcester this morning, we can only hope that a solution is found that keeps the track racing and prevents it from turning into a fast buck opportunity for property developers.

  6. Afternoon folks

    Thanks for all your comments yesterday. I’ve only just read them …..
    LOVE your input BRIAN C….when i get paid lol! Work finished me at the age of 49 earlier this year because of my brain tumor so i don’t have a wage coming in. Betting is my only source of income. So with regard to your comment …my eye is never off the ball.
    Fatigue….yes absolutely. The hours I’m putting in every day are more then i would do in a working week. It’s not great. But looking for value takes time and effort. My research is even more committed since going live. I go through every racecard every day. Although i Have begun to store systems, I am of the firm belief that systems DO have a shelf life. Once in the domain of the masses the value disappears. The masses are being mislead imo. I strive to spot new and fresh areas that others have missed. Man, its a slow process though.
    With regard to yesterday and why my profit cycle was greater in the first half of the month. I was maybe thinking this…..
    We know we are right that trainers like to follow an MO. Could it be? …. most of the operations concentrate on what they are good at in the first 2 weeks of the month. By week 3 they then change the operation to get next months horses ready for the start of the following month? Sounds plausible.

    Anyway since going live 20/07/18 the points bank is sitting at + 104.42 with 4 days left to complete the month cycle. Returns are to 1 point e/w. I don’t think that’s bad at all.

    Good luck today.

  7. I see that Towcester racecourse has gone into administration and they are looking for buyers. Generally racecourses seem to have picked up in the past few years and so interesting that one is going the other way. I do not know if it also includes the greyhound track or it is completely separate?

    1. Classic case of having idiots in charge by the looks of it. Yep it’s for the whole operation. They sold off a load of their race meetings to other tracks and plenty of the ones they had left were free entry. They then ruined this picturesque views with a greyhound track in the wrong spot,for a sport that by all measures is seemingly dying. Whatever the business case it clearly hasnt held. Don’t think they had problems just on the racing side before the venture into the dogs. That must have run ok as a business even if not that profitable. But maybe not. Maybe it was struggling and the dogs were a last throw of the dice. Hopefully it can be saved. Many a low grade plodded may struggle to win elsewhere.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.