Members Daily Post: 14/08/18 (complete)

Tips x3, Section 1 (comp), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Ffos Las 

3.45 – Duration (all hncps 5 yrs,3yo+ 5) 14 ES+ 13/2 S3A UP (needs further, 14/16f+ to my eye) 

5.15 – Maggie Jonks (all hncps 5 yrs,3yo+ 5) 14 ES+ 16/1 S3A WON 16/1 

 

Thirsk

5.20 – 

Nuns Walk (4yo+) w2 H1 I3 11/2 S2 UP

Start Time (m going/age) 14 13/2 WON 13/2 

Strong Steps (m class move) H3 I1 7/2 S2  UP

7.20 – 

Benjamin Thomas (m dist) 30 G3 8/1 UP

Goninodaethat (m class) 40/1  UP

Dundunah (m age) H3 I1 7/1 S2 S6 UP

 

Nottingham

None.

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 19/201,72p, -0.6) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +179.5)

Daily Tips

5.50 Thirsk – Bouncin Back – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen)

7.20 Thirsk – Goninodaethat – 1 point win – 50/1 (BetfS/PP) 40/1 (gen)

7.50 Thirsk – Iconic Code– 1 point win – 20/1 (gen)

that’s all for tips,09.18,  write ups….

 

The first horse i’ll mention before these three is Duration in the 3.45 Ffos Las who I have backed at 7s but sadly that price soon went. Were he 7s across the board i’d have tipped him I think, but 11/2 and now 4s was just a tad short for one who’s yet to win in his career, where the trip is a slight niggle and of course the ground is an unknown! In that context I wanted bigger and arguably 7s was on the boundary. The plus points…Balding is on fire, the horse comes out of a hot race LTO where the three in front have all won a few times between them, his mother won on soft,he’ll get a pace to aim at here on a galloping track (which he hasn’t really had as yet) and Hornby takes over from a 7lb claimer who’d ridden him in all his races to date. He also moves into an all age handicap with the allowance. I expect a big run from him today but it was a subjective decision on price, and we shall see if i’ve got that right or not! Balding wouldn’t keep too many 55 rated horses in his yard for long and this one needs to start climbing the ratings soon. To the tips…

Bouncin Back... an open nursery handicap where the going is an unknown for all of them really. I was lured in by the ‘trainer form’ icons on geegeez – Tinkler is 6/25,10p in the last 14 days and 3/20 at the track in the last year. The horse runs in a C6 for the first time, on only his second handicap, steps back up to 6f and gets first time CP. He has experience of the track and some of his races have produced a few winners, esp that Redcar run three starts back where he was surrounded by horses that have gone on to better things, inc his stablemate that was just behind and has since won a C2. I think there is some ability, it’s just a case of when it’s unlocked. Soft is an unknown, as it is for most in here, but he handled GS fine at Beverley I think- well, provided my theory that 5f may be too sharp for him is correct, and he was having to go too quick too soon there. He was ‘only’ beaten 4l or so. His relative experience may count and I think he may appreciate this stamina test. I thought his rest pattern was interesting also, appearing 14 days after his last run, given the two before that were after 26 and then 38 days. His best run at Redcar was after 20.  At 16s I was happy to roll the dice.

Goninodaethat... a general 40s was just an insult to this old boy to my eyes. He shouldn’t be this big. It’s been a long time since his old legs have relished Good To Firm ground and I think that’s a genuine/valid excuse for every run this year, in which time his mark has dropped 9lb to the basement. Two starts ago he ran over 5f which has never been his trip and he’s had CP on the last twice, now removed. It could be that he is just out of form and ‘gone at the game’ but his last win was on ‘good’ and his two before that were on soft. All hopes rest on him relishing the underfoot conditions here and him bouncing back. Last October he ran a credible race at Muss over 5f in soft, staying on, beaten 1 3/4 lengths off 55. Were that 6f he may have won it. That was his last encounter with soft ground. He has won after a 3 day turnaround before and has placed at the course before, many moons ago. Egan is a positive booking and I doubt many of his talent can ride this weight. In a race where there are no out and out front runners, he should be right up there for a time. It’s also a very open race where everything has a few questions, inc many on the ground. I really wouldn’t fall off my seat if he took this, and did it well, and as such I couldn’t resist at his price. IF he tails off here, then I think it’s fair to say he’s out of sorts, but the yard are going well and he must still be showing enthusiasm at home- and Goldie does well with the old times. He’ll pop up again at some point before the year is out I suspect. He’ll be thrown in when he puts it all together again as the odd run last autumn suggested there was some ability left, and he hasn’t run on soft since. Here’s hoping! And it’s the hope that kills you. 🙂 (he’s also won at 25/1, so I won’t really take note of the market, but hopefully he’s sent off around that price)

Icnonic Code.. another that is a silly price to my eyes…anyone with Geegeez Gold/instant expert may realise why I was interested in taking a look at this one. She is the only one with winning form on soft, and placed form- and only two of these have run on soft in handicaps. So, many in here have a few questions to answer. I don’t think she’s appreciated GF the last twice and I was interested to see her back on soft. I was also intrigued by the move back down to 8f, having run over 10, 12 and 11 so far this year. On her last start for Mick Channon she won a C5 nursery handicap over 8f in soft at Pontefract and is only 3lb higher here. She ran well at Notts on seasonal/yard debut to a point, over 10f – travelled well, was denied a run and was allowed to coast home-  she may have been done for stamina/fitness also. Dalgleish does well at Thirsk- 6/24,9p, +37 all runners here in the last year. This one is drawn well and usually races up there. I expect to see a much better run today as these would appear to be her conditions. She’s the only one in the race proven in the going/class/distance. Sometimes it’s that simple, albeit plenty of these are lightly raced so nothing can be a total shock. But 20s was too big. A silly price, and i’ll maintain that even if she’s tailed off.

So, three pokes, where anything could happen. It’s always exciting with odds like this, and i’ll take one falling in right now! The first one is a proper poke, the other two plenty of method and I’m going to be disappointed if they don’t run their best races of the season to date – whether that will be good enough, we shall see.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

Top of the Class

7.50 T – Sosian 16/1

R Fell

7.20 T – Guardia Svizzera 9/2

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. Pepper Street Ffos Las Tuesday 15:45 1.5pt win Price available 6/1
    Hazarfan Nottingham Tuesday 18:35 1pt e/w Price available 9/1

  2. Some nice winners from Team RTP today. Well done folks, keep it up. My bank has never looked healthier.

    Unfortunately, I couldn’t add to the winners on the AW today but with 2 NR’s only a 2pt loss for the day.

    Chelmsford on Tuesday. Qualifiers as follows:
    3.00 Kodiline 25/1 (EW)
    3.30 Three Weeks 11/2
    4.30 Grandfather Tom 17/2

    1pt win each

    Good Luck

  3. Flat Jockey Profits

    A small success with our one qualifier taking a place for 1.8pts profit.

    A number of qualifiers for Tuesday:

    Ryan Moore (Chelmsford) (Any Odds)
    2.00 Seductive 10/11
    2.30 Ummalnar 1/7
    3.00 Mudallel 2/1
    3.30 Blue Mist 11/4
    4.30 Cowboy Soldier evs
    5.00 Alexanderthegreat 4/7

    Silvestre De Sousa (Nottingham) (5/2 – 11/1)
    6.05 Cape Islay 6/1
    6.35 Incus 7/2
    7.05 Soie D’Leau 8/1
    8.05 Swanton Blue 11/2

    Paul Hanagan (Nottingham) (2/1 – 14/1)
    5.35 Primeiro Boy 9/1
    6.05 Sootability 13/8
    7.05 Bengali Boys 10/3

    Daniel Tudhope (Thirsk) (3/1 – 14/1)
    6.50 Alexana 8/13*

    *Does not qualify for filtered list

    I don’t have enough data to give a reliable range of odds for Ryan Moore but I won’t be betting on anything under 3/1 (ie. none of them!)

    Good Luck

      1. The book of rides that J Crowley has at Ffos Las merits an interest, in my view:-
        215 Tawafoq
        245 Brawny
        315 Elsaabiqaat
        345 Katabatika
        415 Carnwennan
        445 Nordic Combined

    1. SDS goes to Nottingham today, presumably for the Johnston juvenile in the 6.05, Cape Islay, currently 7/2? The other rides just look like agent bookings because he is there.

      Atzeni is at Ffos Las and he only has two rides! In the 4.45 he is up for Varian on Sharja Silk, currently 2/11 which seems short to me based upon its form? His other ride is in the 2.15 for Kittow, Incentive, currently 4/1.

      The Ryan Moore rides at Chelemsford will go off short. I guess the Haggas mounts are his main reason for going there?

  4. Strangely there’s a quite a lot of horses I like look of tomorrow, this is usually not a good sign, but I’m feeling strangely confident after a good few days, again not a good sign, but this is why we play the game and I love the anticipation of a big day even if it does go up in smoke! There’s a few picks so ill try and rattle through them relatively quickly.

    17.50 Thirsk – ONE KISS 6/1
    This one is a max bet for me due to the trainer record with 2 year olds at the track. He’s 5 winners from 8 (4 from the last 5 have won). The horse itself looks to have ran fairly promising not disgracing itself at higher grade and think this one should be good to go on handicap debut.

    17.35 Notts – I’M BILLY MURPHY 16/1 ew
    Another handicap debutant, with which the trainer has a very positive record 3 from 13 in the last year. The trainer is in good form (25% s/r the last 2 weeks) and does well at the track with Lewis Edmunds riding: 2 from 5, 4 places. Trainer is also 50% in class 5s at the track 2 from 4.

    4.15 FFos Las – CARNWENNAN 22/1 ew
    Bit more of a punt but the trainer is only sending 1 down on a 200+ mile journey and has booked Crowley and they are 4 from 5 when teaming up. Only its 3rd run, the first 2 being on the AW and has been poor so far, but in the soft going it could be completely different.

    4.45 FFos Las – NORDIC COMBINED 9/1 ew
    This one more of a form and conditions pick, definitely a mud lover with the strongest record of the bunch with some cut in the ground. Get his conditions tomorrow and on a mark to pounce.

      1. I once joked to Josh that I should get ‘Heavily Backed, finished nowhere’ on my headstone, as my picks went through a phase of doing exactly that.

        Joking aside its good to see things backed, but for me the late money usually tells the story, hopefully the price continue’s down till the off and fingers x for no late drifts. GL if your on as well.

  5. James Tate has runners at three tracks:-
    315F Across The Sea h’cap debut with soft likely to suit
    515F Bidding War up in trip, bred for it, back on soft
    550T Double Quick down in class, switched to soft
    605N Royal Variety longer trip will suit pedigree.

  6. quick update re: Betfair, they have now reinstated my account , i was given some bullshit about attempted login from suspicious source but after checking my login log there was no attempts accept from my ip address , surely if that was the real reason they would have warned me and ask me to change my password (i have had this happen with another account and that’s what they did) being the stroppy bugger that i am i’m not going to let this go just yet and will keep digging later today when i have some time.

    1. Algorithms are taking over the world! They were likely just flexing their muscles. Their may be a film in this? The algorithm becomes more intelligent through evolution and electrocutes winning punters via their key boards!
      Anyway happy punting with our friends at Betfair.

  7. Well back from my long weekend away with the family. Looks like it was a good weekend for RTP which is always good too see! After last weeks fight with lady luck proved to be very unfruitful, I think the break was needed. A full round up of last weeks results will be posted below, although it does read all in RED!

    Taking the day to catch up on all the races from the weekend, fill my eye catchers back up! So nothing from me today but back tomorrow with hopefully lady luck on my side, fingers crossed.

    Good luck with your bets today

  8. COLINS BETS
    Thirsk
    5.20 Strong Steps BOG 7/2
    8.20 Sunhill Lad BOG 11/4
    Both have form on soft and heavy going,Sunhill Lad has Graham Lee in the plate for the 1st time so a major positive.

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