Members Daily Post: 13/08/18 (complete)

Tips x2/write up, Section 1 (comp)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Ayr

1.35 – Katiejay (2YO) 9/1 UP

2.05 – Inglorious (micro runs) ES+H3 I1 G1 11/2 S1 S2 S3A# S4 3rd 5/1

2.40 – My Valentino (m class) 11/1 2nd 

3.10 – Pudding Chare (m TJC) I3 25/1 UP

3.40 – Good Boy Alfie (m dist) 5/1 UP

4.15 – Katheefa (m class/going) H1 G3 15/2 S2 S6 UP

4.45 – Kibaar (m class/going) H3 G3 9/2 S5  2nd 

5.15 – 

Qasr (m dist/runs) 14/1 WON 14/1>13/2 (55p R4)

Eyreborn (m dist/runs) ES+I3 50/1 S3A UP

 

Ripon

2.55 – Dominating (m TJC) H3 13/2 UP

 

Windsor

5.30 – Dukeofwallingford (m dist/age) G3 20/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 19/201,72p, -0.6) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +179.5)

Daily Tips

2.55 Ripon – Dominating – 1 point win – 8/1 (BV) 15/2 (Bet365) 7/1 (gen) UP…never going sadly, that was a struggle after the first furlong, Franny never happy. That wasn’t his running so a line through that. 

3.40 Ayr – King’s Gift – 1 point win – 8/1 (lad/Hill/Coral) 15/2 (gen) WON 8/1> 4/1 (declared at 8s, which became widely available for a few hours across the board after posting) 

that will be all for tips, 09.23, write ups…

Dominating...if memory serves me right Nick may have tipped this one three starts back but in any case at his odds, dropped back into a C4 again, I thought i’d have a go. He was beaten a head in that Carlisle race by Stone The Crows but gets 3lb today, but arguably more importantly he gets Franny Norton. I like Joe Fanning as a rider, but as time has gone on I don’t think he’s the strongest in the finish anymore. If SDS was on this one at Carlisle i think he’d have won, as he would with PJ or Franny I suspect. Anyway, there shouldn’t be too much between them this time but Stone The Crows won’t get an easy lead here i don’t think and Dominating may appreciate the lack of sting in the ground here. I don’t think he’s ever been in love with good to firm, as it was at Carlisle, but we shall see. He’s run in a couple of C2s since over longer trips, and will appreciate these calmer waters. That run at Goodwood was also after 30 odd days and returning 12 days later here, he could be sharper. He should have been the same price as STC in my view and was a few points too big. He has more class than plenty in here, is a proper trier, and has assured stamina – which is a question for a few. IF he runs his race, he should be thereabouts.

King’s Gift... I’m struggling to keep on top of my recent losing daily tips/festival tips, so thanks to Mike for posting them below. It looks like losing Daily Tips and Festival Tips have pulled in 58 odd points in the last 3 weeks, if backing on their next three starts, (i think stopping at a winner, but not sure if Mike just does 3 strikes and you’re out, even if they win in that time….) Anyway, they are clearly a good source of potential winners/starting points, even if i’d be cautious as to backing them systematically. I’m clearly pulling the trigger too early with plenty of them… and hopefully that’s the case with this one. The ground went much softer than hoped for when he ran for me at York, but he plugged on well enough. I don’t think he’s a soft ground horse and with any luck may be seen to better effect today. He had some decent form as a 3YO in some deep class 2s, (and Group 3s,inc as a juvenile) and comes here 10lb below some of those credible efforts. He’s going to strike at some point. At times he does run like a horse without a trip and they move him back up to 10f here, his first go over this distance in a class 3. He should race up there, either on the pace or tracking, and if he’s going to stay this trip I don’t see an excuse today. Not So Sleepy is a big danger, dropping in class, but Kings Gift felt a bit big here. He’s got a handicap in him soon enough and maybe these two will battle it out.

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of the rest…well I stared at 3 others from Section 1, and deliberated tipping but haven’t… Katheefa… he has a decent chance for S6 but as I was deliberating, the fav came out – and the main logic for liking his chance is that I think he needs a strong pace to aim at/horses to come through…and Duncan of Scotland was one of the front runners. Maybe they will still go a decent pace and he’ll appreciate returning to this straight track -i’m on with my strategy bank/stake.  He’s ran with credit the last twice, with valid excuses for not being closer. He’s a strong traveller and he may not be far away – he looks like a winner in waiting, but needs plenty to drop right – a strong pace, a pace collapse and the gaps to appear, and to be on the right part of the track. That may happen today, we shall see. Had DoS been in and his price still around 8s/9s, I may have been tempted to tip him.

Pudding Chare…I considered for a time at monster odds and will have beer money on just in case.. his recent win was when running on the pace and then hitting the front a couple of furlongs out. Apparently he can sulk if getting too far back/surrounded by horses, which explains some of his runs, as well as not being a C4 animal, and needing further than 7f. I thought the two Mike Smith horses could be the pace angles in this, and depends whether one can stay there. In the end I thought this one was just a bit too moderate, in what is a deep enough race with a few in form horses. His one win also came from the horse he beat throwing it away I think- didn’t look the most genuine. But it isn’t impossible PJ tries to make all here and if the horse enjoys himself, you never know.

Dukeofwallingford…I had to leave based on price really, given he was 20s across the board and by the time I got to him he was 12s, which given the questions he has may be about right/not overly generous. I’d have had a go were he still 20s I think, just because he’s only had 4 runs in handicaps and they move him from 8f to 6f in a race without any consistent front runners…they’ve booked an in-form apprentice who’s riding well (4/18,5p in the last 14 days) and has won a few times by making all- if you’re going to drop a horse to a sprint distance that you clearly think stays further, you’d be stupid not to try forcing tactics- it may be the pace he has to go over this trip takes him out of his comfort zone, he does too much, and fades, but he is intriguing in an open race- and Optimum Time did the same for the trainer the other week, when dropping markedly in trip and making all in first time blinkers for S6 at a tasty 14s. 20s was worth a nibble to find out, I wasn’t convinced 12s was. No doubt he may win like a 3s shot now!

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3.Micro System Test Zone

none.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

/

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

45 Responses

  1. U.S. Racing Tip for late Sunday. At Woodbine (Canada) 11.31.

    Two outsiders – Without A Doubt and Its In The Stars. Dutching plus an Exacta.

      1. You have to reverse it I think by number. So 10 and 12 and 12 & 10 to be sure via BET365 or similar. I will have a go and re post if it is incorrect.

          1. I think an Exacta is one bet in the correct order. What you’ve described is a reverse or combination forecast. So you are doing both?

      1. Sorry I messed up what an exacta is. Not my sort of bet and I only do forecasts occasionally via BET365. Without A Doubt won at 16/1 available on Bet365. However the forecast/exacta etc went down as did any bet on Itsinthestars in the race for dutching purposes.
        So since 29 June the North America selections are up 32.5 points on win bets on selections. There appears to have been peaks and troughs re winning selections as we can go up to 8 losing selections before we get a winner. Too early to make any judgements on this sample and so we just have to see how it goes?

        1. Thanks for posting these Martin. That’s a good profit. As I’ve said before I don’t really know a lot about horses and certainly nothing about US racing, but a profit is a profit no matter where it comes from. I’ll be keeping an eye out for these tips.

  2. Tomorrow looks a little trappy so just the one on the AW:

    Smooth Sailing Wolverhampton Monday 18:10 1pt e/w Price available 10/1

  3. AW Results update

    Not the stellar day we had on Friday but still two winners on Saturday for 1.5pts profit on the day.

    w/c 6 Aug: Staked 36pts, Profit 29.94pts, ROI 83.16% or £149.69 to £5 stakes.

    Wolves on Monday. Qualifiers below:
    6.10 Romaana 13/2
    6.40 Ubla 4/1
    7.40 Wolf Hunter 8/1
    8.40 Corton Lad 15/2

    1pt win each

    Good Luck

  4. Flat Jockey Profits

    No joy again for the one qualifier so -2pts.

    Ryan Moore didn’t win any of his 3 rides for RM S2 so -6pts.

    Frankie did win on his mount but doesn’t qualify for these stats.

    One qualifier on Monday:

    Oisin Murphy (Windsor) (13/2 – 20/1)
    7.30 Livingstones Quest 14/1

    Good Luck

    1. Not much going on re jockeys and trainers today. Gordon Elliott runs 4 at Ayr including Markham, who he keeps rolling out. Hanagan is at Ripon riding for Fahey plus filling in in other races. SDS goes to Windsor for 3 rides inc 1 for Johnston. Atzeni goes to Wolves on the sand for 3 rides, 1 for Johnston.

      Nothing I want to back apart from the Nick M selection. Good luck.

  5. Josh’s recent tips
    Notes/Daily Tips
    Ayr
    3.10 – Chinese Spirit on 3rd run
    3.40 – Kings Gift on 2nd run
    4.15 – Bossipop on 2nd run
    5.15 – Eyreborn on 2nd run
    Rip
    4.30 – Vigee le Brun was a nr when tipped 23/7

    Festival Tips
    wind
    7.00 – Bathsheba Bay on 2nd run
    Mike

    1. Recent Tips P/L from 23/7 – 12/8
      Notes/Daily
      25 x 1st run
      2 x win
      p/l @ bog -3
      p/l @ sp -6.5

      17 x 2nd run
      5 x win
      p/l @ bog +21
      p/l @ sp +14.5

      13 x 3rd run
      2 x win
      p/l @ bog -0.9
      p/l @ bog -1.4

      Festival
      0 x 1st run

      15 x 2nd run
      4 x win
      p/l @ bog +11.75
      p/l @ sp +9

      9 x 3rd run
      0 win
      p/l @ bog -9
      p/l @ sp -9

      3m+

      3 x 1st run
      0 win
      p/l @ bog -3
      p/l @ sp -3

      5 x 2nd run
      1 x win
      p/l @ bog -0.25
      p/l @ sp -0.75

      2 x 3rd run
      0 win
      p/l @ bog -2
      p/l @ sp -2

      1. Thanks Mike. Including the post festival runs, that’s a pretty healthy return to BOG for 3 weeks of tips.

    2. Titus
      Well done with
      Kings Gift, Josh as well
      V le B 12s nice one.
      App race no pen running in an am race at Bev next so look out for it again.

      LTO
      Looks like the 2nd is the angle to follow with Daily tips and 1st and 2nd time out with Festival tips.

      Thanks again

      Mike

      1. Ah, you see i’m just too premature most of the time! Don’t think there is any logical reason why a daily tip would do well on 2nd start after tipping rather than 1st, will just be an anomaly due to sample size I suspect. There is plenty of logic given my approach for why enough should perform on their next 3 starts at some point. We shall see in time, but certainly a good starting point to look again. Esp if my reasoning was they were unexposed etc, or now well handicapped and/or had some decent form in the book or recent ‘hot form’ or trainer red hot etc and out again quickly etc

  6. Ripon 4.30 polar Forest. 14/1

    Ran ok at Newcastle thought jockey was a bit weak. Has won here. Hoping for a more forceful ride.

  7. COLINS BETS
    A busy day today
    Ripon
    1.50 Good Tyne Girl BOG 3/1
    2.55 Stormin Tom BOG 10/3
    Ayr
    2.05 Lucky Violet BOG 5/2
    3.10 Markham BOG 3/1
    4.15 Bossipop BOG 3/1
    4.45 First Bombardment BOG 9/2
    4.45 Our Place Loule BOG 20/1
    Windsor
    7.30 Sicario BOG 4/1
    August
    Bookmakers SP – 19.75

    BOG – 11.55

      1. they have shut down the exchange side also? And what about any Paddy Power account, given they’re all same company assume that may have gone also, if not already? That sounds odd, didn’t think exchange accounts closed as such, but suppose if decision based on sportsbook/paddy power, then it will do. That’s a concern.

        1. I cannot see why they would stop you on the exchange? I put lots of money through it and all they do is increase my commission charge based upon turnover. It can go up to 8% but luckily there are other exchanges out there.

          1. I don’t know how relevant this is but the same thing happened to Steve Palmer from the racing post last week.

            He said on his podcast last week that it had been reinstated following a few phone calls.

            Perhaps they are doing reviews in the same way bet365 did six months ago but it seems strange given they are Comission based.

          2. Steve had his account suspended due to high volumes. He stood to win £300K on Tiger in The Open and then went in the following week on Dustin Johnson th The Canadian Open, where he collected on the favourite. He said that they said to him that they had suspended his accounts in a cooling off period due to his high volumes. His account is live again and had Jason Day in The USPGA, so no big pick up this week.

            I saw that the Paddy Power Betfair share price dropped 3% due to lower than projected profits this period. However no blame was apportioned to Martin Whittle for cleaning them out!

          3. Yeah I am presuming he was on about an exchange account though. I can’t imagine he has a Sportsbook account

          4. I am restricted to pennies with Paddy and BF Sportsbook but have full access to the exchange.

            Probably unconnected, but they closed my account because of suspicious activity a couple of days ago.

            I got in touch via online chat, they wanted me to change my email and password which I did, was reinstated on the spot.

          1. paddy power account was closed about 18 months ago, so i can’t see a connection there, i dared to win a couple of hundred quid and was shut down smartish.

  8. That’s not good as I lost BF Sportsbook & PP a long time ago.
    Recently lost Unibet when they adopted Stan James accounts.

  9. Please keep us up to date with this Martin, have you been getting better prices over night, they might think you’re an arber. I can’t understand why they would close your betfair account though as surely it’s just turnover to them and you pay their commision or premium charge.

    For what its worth I really fancy 540 javelin and 640 central city . EW double if you want to play safe

  10. One of the things I notice is a lack of money on the exchange the previous night and early morning I guess this must be down to most people betting bog. The downside is soon as you start winning your account is closed. This is shocking attitude yet they advertise like they are whiter than white

    1. All of the exchanges have low liquidity the night before except at the big festivals/sporting events. It gets going after 9 AM on the day on weekdays. The thing with traders is that they are in and out the market shortly before the off and then in race and so things dont liven up most days until near race time.

      1. i do place my bets the night before and do ask for some silly prices on the exchange which rarely get matched but must admit i have been beating sp by about 50% on quite a few occasions recently. but that has been my norm for over 20 years and never had a problem before.

  11. after another conversation with BF my account is closed until their “investigation” is complete, there is no timeframe for that and i cannot withdraw any money either, absolute fucking disgrace that they can hold on to my money. i do have an old Betdaq account that’s still active but would have to use money from my personal account to fund it which has always been a no no for me i keep my betting and personal accounts completely separated

    1. Did have a mate who had an ‘investigation’ by betfair after he’d won a couple of grand on one of those 1 frame snooker shootout matches. His account was frozen but they had to pay him out in the end, closed his account though. Think it took a few weeks for them to pay him. They thought the match was fixed, he said to me how can they expect players to travel to a tournament with all the expenses with a chance they could only play 1 frame, they deserve to get stung. ps it was fixed!!!
      Think its because your beating the prices Martin, they don’t like winners

    1. cheers, eventually i’ll stop hovering around 0 and climb the daily profit ladder! Did relish that 10f in easier grade, and a lovely ride. The 3 class 2 horses filled the places there.

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