Members Daily Post: 10/08/18 (complete)

Section 1 (complete), updates

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Brighton 

3.00 – 

Poetic Steps (all hncps 5 yrs,3yo+ 5) ES+ I3 G3 3/1 S3A# 

Roy Rocket (all hncps) H3 13/2 

Kath’s Legacy (m TJC) G3 15/2 

Light of Air (micro runs) H3 I1 G1  7/2 S1 S2 S4 

3.30 – 

Danzay (all hncps 5 yrs, 3yo+ 5) ES+ H3 I3  13/2 S3A#

Iconic Belle (3yo+) w2 14/1 

Bid Adieu (m TJC) H1 I3 G3 5/1 S2 S4 

4.00 – 

Jack Taylor (m TJC) w2 H3 G3 3/1 S5

Pour La Victoire (m dist) H3 G3 3/1 S5 

4.30 – 

Lady Marigold (all hncps 5 yrs,all) ES+  7/2 S3A

Good Luck Charm (m runs) I3 6/1 

 

Newmarket (July) 

7.10 – 

Love To Breeze (m age) 11/8 

Overtrumped (m age) G3 33/1 

7.40 – 

Marilyn (all hncps) w2 I3 G3 10/1 

Fountain Of Time (3yo+) w2 14,30 H3  7/4 

 

Haydock

7.55 – Dalshand (m TJC) w2 w1 H3 G3 6/4 S5 

8.30 – Miss DD (all hncps) H1 I3 G1  3/1 S1 S2 S4 

 

Musselburgh

none. 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 18/196,69p, -4.6) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +179.5)

 

Daily Tips

NONE, no tips on Friday.

 

NOTE: I’m taking the ‘day off’ (after 8am once S1 complete) on Friday to celebrate turning 29 years young – i’m off to Alton Towers with a friend, maybe an attempt to unlock my inner child! 🙂 I haven’t been for years and thought it would be good fun. Anyway, Saturday’s Section 1/3 will be completed Friday evening at some point. Saturday will be fairly quiet as there are no big races i wish to attack, and I could probably do with a couple of days off from ‘thinking horse’ after last week etc. S6 winning +25 points or so on Thursday was an early gift, and well timed to boost the coffers. 

 

Matched Betting…also, if this sort of approach to making money is up your street, today’s email to the general list may be worth a read HERE>>>

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat

The Doyler

5.25 Newm- Ice Gala 11/2

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update  

(16th July-5th August) 

Summary below, links in Key for Jumps + Flat Strategies will be updated next week

Summary

TOTAL (strategies) (Section 1):

  • JUMPS – S1 (/) S2 (2/15,6p, +15, +14.7 BFSP) S2A (subset of S2… 0/7,3p, -7) S3 (0/2,0p, -2) S3A (2/4,3p, +1.16) S3A# (2/4,3p, +1.16) S4 (/) S5 (1/5,2p,+10, +18 BFSP)
  • FLAT 2018: S1 (4/16,6p, -0.65) S2 (6/28,11p, -2.5) S3A (5/31,6p, +2.35) S3A# (3/8,4p, +14.35)  S4 (3/20,6p, -12.25) S5 (1/10,2p, 0) S6 (4/26,7p, +12.4, + 10.6 BFSP)

TEST ZONE

  • Jumps angles: 8/37,10p, +19.5
  • Flat: 8/42, 9p, -7.5

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago w1 / w2)

  • Jumps: 11/26.11p, +41.6 (w1 : 7/16,7p, +14, w2 4/10,4p, +17.6)
  • Flat: 11/55,18p, -5.1 (w1 8/34,14p, -1.6, w2 3/21,4p, -3.5)
  • Total: 22/81,29p, +36.5

Handicap Debut (jumps+flat): 1/3, -0.75

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Of Interest/to muse over…

The three ‘where to begin’ flat strategies (S1/S4/S6) didn’t pull up any trees collectively, 11/62, 19p -0.5 in the last 3 weeks,  They’re on +67.1 (ear/bog) and +78.2 BFSP (where S6 is followed to BFSP) for the year.

S3A# (ES+, +2 or more ratings pointers/red symbols)

That’s starting to tick along nicely, 5/12,7p, +15.6 across flat and jumps in the last 3 weeks, taking it to…

146 bets / 40 wins / 62 w|p / +50.85 

(I suppose a case could be made that this is logically the most sound strategy, given it’s based on the most solid of the trainer stats research, with then two or more horse based ratings pointers to add some context to the ability of the horse, in relation to it’s rivals. There’s no reason it should drop off necessarily but time will tell) 

‘In form’horses is looking interesting, especially over jumps…

w1(section 1 qualifier that won LTO): 15/48, 21p, +12.4 in the last 3 weeks, taking the total across Flat + jumps to

199 bets / 53 wins / 74 w|p / +47

For the Jumps w1, they now sit at 30/97, 36p, +38.75 for the year. If that can be repeated every 100 bets or so, then happy days.

Jumps w2 (section 1 qualifier, won 2 starts back) are now on 14/77,26p, +22.6

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Jason Watson

I did have a quick look into his stats and the only angle of sorts I could find was… for 2018…

-All races

-9 or fewer runners

-horse running at same distance as LTO

-14/1 or shorter SP (a guide, 0/11,1p above this) 

72 bets / 25 wins / 38p / 35% sr / +57 SP / +68 BFSP / AE 1.56 

It’s quite hard to find a ‘way in’ really, and as we saw with his Stewards Cup win, clearly he does ride winners in races outside of said conditions, but this year anyway, they’ve been hard to find. He does ride plenty from the front/just off the pace, so it may make sense that he does better in smaller fields, and learning/judging pace is something that comes with experience, as does track position. Maybe that would explain his figures for races with 10+ runners, which for all rides under 10/1 for example, perform 44% below market expectation (9/75,28p) – albeit maybe they are just over-bet. Anyway, i wouldn’t follow that systematically but interesting nonetheless.

He has two ‘qualifiers’ at Brighton…

2.00- Cent Flying

4.30 – Black Ceasar

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

54 Responses

  1. Happy Birthday Josh. Thanks for all your work.

    AW Tips. 1 winner but still a loss of 1pt on the day.

    Double bill on Friday at Wolves and Chelmsford. Qualifiers below:
    Wolves
    1.50 Fizzy Feet 4/1
    2.20 Passing Star 7/1
    3.50 Rock’n Gold 14/1 & Beatbybeatbybeat 6/1
    4.20 Cry Wolf 9/2
    4.50 Joyful Dream 10/1
    5.20 Mostawfee 5/1 & Cat Royale 8/1

    Chelmsford
    5.55 Camachess 10/1
    6.25 Picture Poet 11/2
    7.30 Dynamo Walt 25/1 (EW)
    8.05 Buckland Beau 13/2 & Coverham 17/2
    8.40 Fitzwilly 10/1
    9.10 Chloellie 9/2

    1pt win each except where noted EW

    Good Luck

    1. Wow Ken!!!! Last time you had this many winners I remember you saying that you needed to go for a lie down!! Brilliant tipping

  2. Flat Jockey Profits

    A nice 6/1 winner from SDS to with one NR that gave us 4pts profit for the full list and 8pts for the filtered list.

    Just the one qualifier for Friday.

    James Doyle (Newmarket-J)
    5.25 Ice Gala 11/2

    Good Luck

  3. I shall try and post more regularly, need to break the hoodoo, my Demon of whenever I suggest a horse they seem to loose!
    RTR 1 – Mamillius in the 16:00 at Brighton @ 7.40
    RTR 1 – Question Of Faith in the 19:55 at Haydock @ 4.80
    RTR 1 – Fitzwilly in the 20:40 at Chelmsford @ 4.10

  4. Happy Birthday Josh! Thanks for all the hard work you put in to make your blog the best there is anywhere! Have a great day out & enjoy plenty beers!

  5. Happy Birfday Young Josh 🙂

    Don’t forget to zip up your pockets when you go on those roller coasters … don’t want all that hard earned money falling out on the people below do we !! 🙂

    ALL in small caps as well !!!
    bc 🙂

  6. Happy birthday Josh, have a great day and the rain stays away! A lot of years since Ive been to Alton Towers!

    Horrid day of racing really for a Friday, a couple of things, caught my eye, one that SDS has gone to Wolverhampton this afternoon and I note he has the ride on PASSING STAR in the 220 for Daniel Kubler. 14lbs below its last winning mark, tongue tied for 1st time and dropped back to 6 furlongs, price has gone though

    And everyones good friend Jamie Spencer rides for the 1st time in over 2 years at musselburgh today, again the price has gone but I noted MARKHAN in the 310 for Gordon Elliot. Good luck anything your backing

  7. Hyperfocus Newmarket 20:15 2pt win (I actually was going to tip him an hour ago when he was 20/1 before the fav came out which is annoying as I wanted to take him on but 12/1 still about.)

      1. I see Dascombe and Kingscote have 3 tonight Nick. I take it your not keen. An amazing stat though, never seen
        one with such longevity.

  8. No Joy on the tipping front yesterday, but it was a Thursday! Another day of mediocre racing to plod through.

    U.S.Racing Tip – Saratoga race 8, 10.02 UK, Check The Books.

    Well don Nick with yesterdays winner.

    Happy birthday Josh. I was 29 once, for a year.

    Good luck.

    1. SDS goes to Wolverhampton on the all weather fro a number of rides and then back down to Newmarket for the evening meeting. Looks to be quality over quantity on the all weather. There are also two Irish raiders from the Feane stable that Hugh Taylor has put up; 2.20 Ahundrednotout and 5.20 Mostawfee. They are both now favourites in competitive races.
      Gordon Elliott send runners to Musselburgh and has Jamie Spencer riding them where he can.
      Most of the top jockeys are at Newmarket this evening, except Frankie, who has one ride for Gosden at Haydock, 6.15 Beatboxer and James Doyle, who goes to Chelmsford for one ride for Haggas, 7.30 Island of Life. So both look worth a bet early before the prices go any more.

      Good luck.

      1. OOps, Beatboxer’s price has gone and Island Of Life is a non runner! It seems to be one of those days!!!

  9. Happy birthday Josh, hope you have a good one!

    Only 1 for me today Kildeer in the 3.30 at Brighton. SBS only sending this 1 down and booked the aforementioned Jason Watson. The pair have a decent record teaming up and the trainer has 50% strike rate at the track and 50% over the last 2 weeks. I got on at 7/2 but 3/1 now.

  10. COLINS BETS
    Brighton
    3.00 Poetic Steps BOG 9/4
    3.30 Iconic Belle BOG 12/1
    3.30 Danzay BOG 11/2
    Haydock
    5.45 Luv U Whatever BOG 11/2
    Newmarket
    7.10 Trulee Scrumptious BOG 7/1

  11. Do any of you guys use or have experience of “Jolly Lock” software, which claims to disable bookies’ spyware on our computers? If so, does it appear to be effective and how easy is it to use?

    1. Never heard of it before but would also be interested to know more, specifically if bookies can detect if it’s being used and restrict or close accounts because of.

    2. Maybe talking out of my rear but when say Coral keep transferring money into a clients account,then their accounts department will pick this up,and then they will put restrictions or close the account down.
      Had accounts with all bookmakers with BOG who advertise on Oddschecker and have been restricted or closed down by all.
      Do not think that you can get the better of the bookmakers only delay the inevitable for a short period.
      Last month my bets paid
      Bookmakers SP + 8 or to £100 bets £ 800
      BOG + 38 or to £100 bets £ 3800
      difference of £ 3000 your accounts will be restricted or closed down in time,whether what you do to try to do to avoid it.

      1. I’ve said many times on here that the easiest way of blocking bookies spybots is to completely delete ‘flashplayer’ from your pc. No good just disabling it when putting bets on which is probably all the software will do. Why do you think none of the bookies have none-flash streaming ?
        Lots of ‘advice’ around for keeping the bookies at bay, some with good reasoning, some not so. I don’t think there is a one cap fits answer. Sooner or later they will check your a/c and it’ll either be flagged or not depending on the current activity. I have’nt got a bog a/c that has not been closed/restricted in one way or another.

        1. was going to add before hitting return,
          I’ve got 2 a/c’s in other names only used since clearing flash and have never had a problem despite regular withdrawals. I don’t think it’s the answer but it certainly makes it harder for the trader to home in.

          1. I seem to have found greater success recently when I avoid using WiFi, withdrawing no more than once a month and no more than 30-40% of whats in your account. Also been using browsers instead of apps. Avoiding using a bookie which has a much bigger price than everyone also is another. Don’t place bets the night before where the bookie liability exceed £250.

          2. I use an old phone with a 12 pound per month rolling contract It a good 12 pounds spent .Dont even use it for oddschecker just bookies .I use the shops a lot as well to mix it up .I never go on WiFi with the phone .

          3. Moby is a good one but no apps just browsers as Nick says. Even better is a dongle tethered via usb where you have a new ip address every time you connect.
            Interesting putting an liability limit on eve betting . When I lost my main a/c’s I was backing big odds e/w the night before.

            As an aside, I noticed t’other day that B&Q use the same spybot as Coral. If they’re using one you can bet many other stores are. make/model of pc, os, ip ,recent browsing etc,etc. Why the F’ do they need that, and more to the point how safe are they keeping it?

  12. Thanks for all the birthday wishes. Much appreciated. Just on the way back from AT then out for dinner. It’s a fairly quiet one this evening. Tomorrow night maybe not so much! I’ll get Section 1 etc up at some point this evening…hopefully! May be first thing Sat. 🙂

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