Members Daily Post: 07/08/18 (complete)

Daily Tips x3, Section 1 (comp), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Newbury 

3.25 – Almoreb (micro runs) H3 I3 G1 2/1 S2 S4 UP

 

Catterick

2.35 – Kinloch Pride (m dist) I3 8/1 WON 8/1>15/2 

3.10 – 

Be Perfect (m TJC/class) w1 H3 I3  7/1 UP

Stormin Tom (m class) H1 I1 11/2 S1 2nd 

4.15 – 

Chaplin Bay (m TJC) H3 G3 9/1 S5 UP

Relight My Fire (m dist) 33/1 UP

 

Nottingham

6.20 – 

La Sioux (3yo+, m age/dist) 12/1 WON 12/1>33/1

Eponia (m dist) w1 14 H1 I1 G1 13/8 S1 S4 UP

 

Ayr

6.45 – Dark Defender (m dist) H3 I1 G3 7/2 S2 S4 S5 UP

8.50 – 

Eyreborn (m dist/runs) ES+I3 25/1 S3A UP

New Abbey Angel (dist) H1 7/1 S6 UP

 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 18/188,66p, +3.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +179.5)

Daily Tips

8.10 Roscommon 

Crown of Thorns – 1 point win – 10/1 (SkybB/BV) 9/1 (gen) UP

Running In Heels – 1 point win – 16/1 (SkyB/Coral/BV) 14/1 (gen) UP*

Well that foray over the water wasn’t worth the bother! both didn’t run very well at all. Moving on…

 

8.50 Ayr

Eyreborn – 1 point win– 25/1 (gen) (20/1 gen as of 10.15) UP 33/1, no excuse there, perfect spot. She’s just not very good. 

 

that’s all for tips, 09.30, write ups…

 

Roscommon… this handicap hurdle looked interesting enough here to my eyes and in the end I couldn’t resist. The initial advice was going to be 1 point EW on Running In Heels at 16s but in the end decided to try and find another to go to war with, and I don’t want more than 2 points on a race like this, outside of a ‘festival/big Saturday race’. 14s/16s is a bit of an insult for Gavin Cromwell’s mare who is lightly raced for her age under rules, having been pointing for a time. She hasn’t really run a bad race over hurdles/in all handicaps and I think she will be staying on strongly to the line again here. I’d be mildly surprised were she out of the places. I think we can excuse that last run, where the heavens opened and it seemed hard work. She’s best in decent ground and just couldn’t pick up. It was also a smaller field where the winner made all, which wouldn’t have suited. I think a big field, and hopefully a decent pace, is what she wants. She was still going on at the finish that day and I think she arrives at the top of her game. The 7lb claim will help and I thought she just looked overpriced here, given she stays very well, is fit, in form, and knows how to win. Plenty in here have to answer such questions.

Crown Of Thorns…well these colours will often lure me in, having been responsible for most of my biggest priced Cheltenham Festival winners, and indeed this year’s Irish National. I wanted one with a slightly different profile and this one ticks the boxes, being in the ‘could be anything’ category. Three starts back he ran with credit at Punchestown, his first go over a staying trip on decent ground, in handicaps. The horse he chased home there would go on to win again, and the rest were beaten well enough. He dropped in trip next time, which didn’t suit as he raced prominently, got outpaced, and then stayed on again. With any luck the easier 3m around here may be ideal. LTO he was returning after 70 days and with CP on (no idea why, he’d tried his heart out the two runs before). The jockey was just starting to get him rolling four out when he was impeded and I think that disrupted his stride. He faded. Appearing 11 days later here would suggest there wasn’t anything wrong, and he should be fitter. Adam Short jumps on and these two teamed up to success at Galway on Sunday… a 16/1 winner, he was on my shortlist of 4 for the race…urgh, so it could have been an even better day…Short was 0/47,2p in the 30 days before that which I think put me off…but on reflection, jockey ‘form’ stats in Ireland are probably misleading, given that if you’re not attached to connections X,Y,Z, you’re going to struggle getting on good/consistent horses. Anyway… with his claim this ones comes here off 89, 6lb below his opening handicap mark and i’d like to think he can win from this lowly level. The horse is well bred as you’d expect, Meade is hitting some form and is 3/10,5p with his runners here in the last year. I thought he may relish this test and he will race up on the pace hopefully, in the right spot. Maybe he is a longer term prospect for fences, but can hopefully notch his first win here.

Floramar is a danger as is Goodnightgodbless if she gets in. I did look at Canny Tom for a time but he’s a bit of a monkey, I think there could be stronger stayers in the race, and was beaten by Running In Heels 3 starts back and I saw no reason why that would be overturned, if both running their race.

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Eyreborn… a proper poke at 25s given she’s a maiden after 18 starts or so, which wouldn’t give you too much confidence.. IF the favourite doesn’t stay, this is a very open/weak race (if he does, then he may win well, although he’s a short price even for a ‘saver’)… This one now arrives on a mark of 49, having dropped 6lb from her last run. There are two runs last year, at Thirsk and Hamilton, off marks in the low 60s, which if they were repeated would put her bang there in this. I don’t think she likes very fast ground, which could excuse plenty of recent runs. I also found it interesting that they changed tactics LTO, racing her more prominently. The CP come back, having been off LTO and they drop back to 10f, in a race without any consistent front runners and back into a C6. With Scott back on, I just wondered if they may try and blast out and make all- or attempt to. She may not have the pace or mental toughness to stay there, but at 25s I couldn’t help myself. It’s a hopeful punt but there is some method.

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re-cap… I can’t complain with yesterday’s efforts…Bossipop will be winning races and getting beat by old Pipers at Ripon is rarely a negative. I was counting my money after 4f as he seemed to be cruising, with all the other jocks very active. He either hasn’t picked up on the ground, the rail was riding slower than the middle, or he’s just been beaten by 2 better horses on the day. I’ll fall of my seat in shock if he doesn’t win one or two before the season is out, esp on rain softened ground. Hopefully he’s a decent price when he does, and we’re on. One for the tracker for sure, given his mark and the promise of that run. The Fahey 20s poke ran well in 2nd… sadly she couldn’t get out and tuck in from that draw, the winner on her inside taking the spot she probably wanted… I knew that was a risk pre race. I suspect she’d have gone very very close had she got out and tucked in, in the front 3rd of the field. A shame the winner didn’t fall in a hole but never mind, an decent run, and I know some of you back the bigger ones EW…sadly I didn’t! That run suggested he has turf wins in him and he seemed to relish the climb to the line there. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat

Top of The Class

3.55 Newb- Gunforhire / Jaayiz 

4.30 Newb – Birthright 

5.00 Newb – Cheeky Rascal / Sotomayor 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Help request/anyone like to earn some money….

Update: i’ve received emails from 3 of you and i’ll get back to you all later today, and hopefully we can sort something! 🙂 

Festival Tips RESULTS… is there anyone out there who’d like to compile a coded spreadsheet for all of the members FESTIVAL Tips in 2018? Don’t all jump at once now. There wasn’t too much before Cheltenham, but I really do need to keep a proper record, esp to advised/SP/BFSP, with all the columns adding up automatically etc. I can do it myself no doubt but to save me some time, I don’t mind paying someone to do it for me. I may be clutching at straws but if interested do drop me an email, and we can discuss. Willing to pay a fee, £40+ maybe. (surprisingly no one has battered down my door for this golden opportunity as yet!! 🙂 ) 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

27 Responses

  1. Flat Jockey Profits

    1pt profit for the full list today. 6pts loss for the filtered list.

    Qualifiers for Tuesday:

    Silvestre De Sousa (Notts) (5/2 – 11/1)
    5.20 Halle’s Harbour 14/1*
    5.50 Strawberry Jack 6/4*
    6.20 Eponina 7/4*
    6.55 Side Effect 12/1*
    7.25 Reveleon 11/8*
    8.00 Rose Berry 3/1
    8.30 Daffy Jane 9/4*

    Jim Crowley (Newbury) (5/1 – 18/1)
    2.20 Talaaqy 3/1*
    2.50 Maykir 16/1
    3.25 Almoreb 2/1*
    4.30 Returning Glory 7/4*

    * Does not qualify for filtered list

    I’ve added the filtered odds range beside each jockey for ease of reference.

    Good Luck

  2. Ingleby hollow 7/1 e/w 3:10 catterick
    Chaplins bay 10/1 e/w 4:15 catterick
    Dark defender 10/3 win 6:45 ayr?
    Archipelago 14/1 e/w 8:50 Ayr

  3. Couple ran close but could not get their head in front when it mattered. On to today.

    Chris M Selections:
    Catterick
    15:10 – Stormin Tom (11/2 gen)

    Ayr
    19:50 – Strong Steps (9/1 gen)

    Newbury
    15:55 – Nayslayer (16/1 gen)

    Nottingham
    17:50 – One to Go (9/2 gen)

    Roscommon
    19:35 – Gambling Mistress (7/2 gen)
    20:40 – Just A Boy (7/2 gen)

    1. 5 out of 6 bets have all ran, 4 of them coming 2nd and the other 4th. If the last selection comes second it will have been a very frustrating start to the week! Although positive with nearly every selection being there at the end, I would like lady luck to make a few of those 2nd’s into 1st’s.

  4. COLINS BETS
    Catterick
    3.40 Nifty Niece 5/1 365 11/2
    Ayr
    6.10 Northern Society 5/2
    8.50 Archipeligo 14/1
    8.50 Colour Contrast 16/1 LA 20/1

    1. Hi Ken,

      couldn’t see a horse called LA running at ayr, but there is one called LA Sioux at Nottingham in the 6.20 did you mean that?

      1. No that is LA for Ladbrokes who at the time were showing 20/1 and for me to claim a price there have to be at least 2 bookmakers showing a price.
        The name is Colin by the way.

          1. No don’t be silly! Was 12s across the board this morning, which seemed short given her recent form to my eyes! 33s rather big but all thoughts now are post win, and i’m not sure i’d have gone for her at that price in truth, on recent runs. Wasn’t an obvious reason I could see for bouncing back to form, but that’s animals for you and was a weak enough race if the fav shot her bolt, which she did again. She either settles and makes all or pulls like made and fades. Maybe LA just doesn’t like going too far north.
            Josh

      2. Salman
        Was this a secret tip, La Sioux wins at 33s.

        Was one of josh’s past tips, think about 6 runs ago, who says stop after 3??

        Mike

        1. won on it’s 1st run after being tipped at massive odds of 11/4. If the odds this morning had been anything like the sp I might have had a e/w nibble.

  5. There are some recent tips running today

    C 2.35 – Kinloch Pride on 3rd run
    Cuppacoco, nr when tipped 25/7
    A 6.45 – Dark Defender on 2nd run
    Mike

    1. Thanks. I’ve been out all day so didn’t notice these changes. I won’t include any jockey changes in the P&L as it’s a jockey strategy.

  6. At Nottingham this evening Ryan Moore rides for Stoute in the 6.55 Sextant, as yet unraced. I know that Sir Michael usually lets them go easy first run but he is 7/2 in places. Moore’s other rides at the meeting are nothing special and so he must be going for this one, although he is likely obliged to.

    The Nigel Tinkler 3YO angle found another winner yesterday. Two go today, 7,25 Not Archie Perkins and 8.30 Daffy Jane. Both are fav’s at the moment though.

    Good luck.

    1. haha, well I keep the running P/L obviously, but in the weeks ahead I do really need to be in a position to point people to a spreadsheet detailing every runner, and returns to SP/BFSP etc. I don’t know how many horses i’ve tipped in Festival races this year haha – that isn’t very good! 🙂

      1. Josh, can I just ask will you have a separate spreadsheet for each strategy or will you be putting all the strategies together into one spreadsheet?

        1. Oh i’m just thinking about the tipping element at the moment, not the strategies. In an ideal world i’d have an all singing and dancing spreadsheet for those, but not as yet. that’s quite an undertaking and to keep it updated regularly, which is probably why i’m just stuck on basic wins to runners and P/L, which probably isn’t ideal but it is what it is at the moment. It’s always good to keep your own results, even basic P/L for whatever you’re following on these pages and in general.

  7. ALL TIPS 1/1/18 to 6/8/18 inc.

    NOTES/TIPS (odds I got not what Josh posted)
    198 tips
    13 nr’s
    19 winners
    P/L @ bog + 20.5
    P/L @ sp – 28.5

    FESTIVAL
    133 tips
    4 nr’s
    15 winners
    P/L @ bog + 153.5
    P/L @ sp + 83

    3m
    87 tips
    2 nr’s
    10 winners
    P/L @ bog + 97
    P/L @ sp + 54.5
    Mike

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