Free Daily Post: 06/08/18 (complete)

nothing today

Nothing from me today. 

I’ll be writing a review piece soon on Goodwood and Galway. Very contrasting weeks… -13 points on the former and +43.5 points at Goodwood, after a decent Sunday in the members’ posts with 12/1 and 7/1 winners. There was plenty to take away from the week and think about moving forwards. 

best of luck with any bets. 

Josh 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

5 Responses

  1. Profit yesterday on flat 8.9 wk4 total -12.85 (or -6.35 if poss e/w) cumulative 27.075
    Nh -1, wk2 total 9.5, cumulative 19.25

    R3.00 – Daawy @ 6
    4.00 – Angels @ 11/2
    C6.45 – Airglow @ 7/2
    8.15 – Perla Blanca @ 4
    W7.30 – Brexitmeansbrexit @ 15/2
    NH
    2.20 – Grams and Ounces @ 40 poss e/w
    2.50 – Walden Prince @ 4
    4.20 – Excellent Team @ 13/2
    4.50 – Hardtorock @ 40 poss e/w

  2. Football – The Championship – Hull v Aston Villa.
    At home in their last two seasons Hull average 1.76 points. Their shot data ranks them at 3.5 in the league at home, which is high. In the close season their was a big clear out and they lost among others Abel Hernandez, Seb Larrson and Michael Dawson. They have brought in 7 solid players but appear weaker overall.
    Villa have takeover/financial difficulties that have not yet been resolved. In their last two championship seasons Villa average 1.13 points. Their shot data ranks them at 10.5 in the league in away games, which is average. They too have had a clear out and among others have lost Snodgrass, Terry and Grabban. The only player they have brought in is Andre Moreira from Atletico Madrid. Likely they will lose Jack Grealish before the deadline.
    My odds are 6/4 home, 9/4 draw and 7/4 away. Average odds with the bookies 2/1 home, 9/4 draw and 6/4 away. So I rate Hull to be some value at 2/1.
    On Saturday we were successful with laying Birmingham and lost re Millwall under 2.5 goals, which we had until the 87th minute.

    Good luck.

  3. Here is part one of two of the reports and photos files from Goodwood. Today contains the 4 2yo races from Tuesday and Wednesday.
    Look out for the beast that is Dark Vision in The Vintage and for fun compare the first home and last home in the Feel Glorious maiden. Both Feel Glorious and Isabella Red caught on the same stride. Just a tiny bit more muscle definition on Feel Glorious suggests she may be a tad fitter but overall Isabella Red looks to have a bit more scope. Alhakmah looks like a different breed however.
    Photo files and ratings from Goodwood
    7 races here so I shall just post up a summary with a list of my OR estimates for each race and only highlight anything that looks promising for the future.
    Tues 31st July Vintage Stakes
    Not much went right for Dark Vision but he still scooted up. Getchagetchagetcha was first off the bridle but staying on at the end and is worth a bit more over that distance. Confiding ran a good enough race. Dunkerron a real tough fighter but is there progress left. Probably a handicapper. Van Beethoven did not get run of race. Mordered looked as if he did not like the ground and was still clumsy. Not asked for much and should pop up at a price soon.
    Photo File: https://imgur.com/a/yicvyEH
    Dark Vison – What a bull 101
    Dunkerron – 88
    Confiding – 93
    Getchagetchagetcha – Needs a mile 85
    Van Beethoven – Maybe a tad underpowered behind, looks better than his finishing position and had to gve 3lbs away 87
    Cosmic Law – Over-rated on debut 84
    Federal Law – Maybe a bit downhill at present, possibly better than he showed here 85
    Blonde Warrior – 79
    Mordred – Lovely type, only just over-shadowed by Dark Vison, slow learner, maybe needs a mile. 90
    Junius Brutus – 78
    Drogon – 76
    Burj – 75 will be ruined for nurseries by the company he has kept.
    Tuesday 31st 6f Mdn
    Photo File: https://imgur.com/a/NpSbPVJ
    Nothing much to take out of this Watan looks a bit of a natural, I backed Enough Already e/w and he should win soon.
    Watan – Athletic racy type, looked a pretty average heat although he won well. 82
    Dirty Rascal – Perhaps my rating on debut was right poor ride. 79
    Enough Already – Big strong colt. 78
    Napanook – 77
    Al Mureib – 77
    Conspiritor 76
    Reeves 75
    Rhydwyn – 74
    Get The Rhythm – Too long 72
    Sussex Solo 6
    Gainsborough Hat – 74
    Wed 1st August 5f Molecombe
    Photo file: https://imgur.com/a/kvWj6EY
    Not much to say other than that Rumble Inthejungle is a different class to the rest.
    1. Rumble Inthehjungle – Impressive, powerfully made. 95
    2. Life Of Riley – Given 81 on debut and noted as powerfully made but a bit clumsy at the back and size limited. He is small and struggled to impose himself between two big boys. Tough little tryer. 86
    3. Soldier’s Call – Neat ready and well made ball of muscle type chap. Lacks something 84
    4. Vintage Brut – Over-rated when seen at Sandown 83
    5. Queen Of Bermuda – tall good looking filly, bit light. 80
    6. Barbill – 79
    7. Well Done Fox – 79
    8. Deia Glory – 76
    9. Fantasy – 75
    10. Street Parade – 75
    Wed 1st August 6f Fillies Maiden
    Photo file: https://imgur.com/a/QmRL62J
    Alhakmah stood out in this group but a combination of greenness early on, hampering and not getting a run meant she could not quite get home in front. Still a solid run from the 125/1 winner Feel Glorious. Most of the field average.
    The winner got a good ride from Pat Cosgrave not doing too much too early as there were a lot of the top 7 who were racing a bit early enabling a slightly more conservative ride from Pat just of the pace rather than contesting it to prove the vital difference.
    Feel Glorious, although she caught my eye once as looking fit I would not have had her as likely winner. Looks a bit leggy still, must be a bit of a natural. 79
    Alhakmah – Upper medium strong filly, looked fully fit, inexperience put paid to her winning chance. 87
    Welcoming – Very fit lightly made, good shape, caught wide the whole way and perhaps did too much. 76
    Sabai Sabai – 76
    Lovin – Strong type. Competitive for a fto against other experienced runners 78
    Glass Slippers – 75
    Dancing Warrior – 74
    Aim Power – 72
    Yourtimeisnow – Leggy maybe better over 7f 72
    Time For Bed – Big front end some potential. 74
    Desert Lantern – Not that big, not seen without rug. 72
    Quarry Beach 69
    Munaajaat – No picture
    Mrs Worthington – 65
    Disco Doris – Ok size, green better than shown here. 69
    Parliament House – Chunky, not very big. 66
    Isabella Red – Interesting to compare her photo with that of Feel Glorious, both caught on the same stride and one would be hard pressed to pick which finished where. Not as bad as she looked. May be slow. 66
    Hugh

  4. Windsor Monday 6th August 6f Auction Maiden
    Ratings
    1. Solfeggio, Lively Lydia, Gregarious Girl
    2. Cedar, Dreaming Of Love, Ireland’s Angel, Toybox
    3. Dotty Grand
    4. Kennocha, Dawn Affair, Padura Brave
    Not putting up a formal bet – see conclusion
    This does look like it could be won by anything. Here are my comments from recent runs ov those I have see:-
    Lively Lydia – Small and ordinary, a tribute to Eve J-H to do this well. 65
    Dotty Grand – neat and tidy little filly. Still downhill, may grow into her small frame and compete in weak nurseries. 56
    Queen Of The Jungle – No photo, poor and small. 54
    Dreaming Of Love – A bit close coupled, downhill and not very big but enough substance to suggest she would win a race like this. 67
    Toybox – Decent sized chestnut filly, tails off a bit and not fit. Can do better. 62
    Conclusion – I think I would expect Dreaming Of Love to finish ahead of Lively Lydia this time but my pin lands on Stewart William’s Gregarious Girl. Did everything wrong on debut, slowly away pulled herself up to share lead then hung left under Milly Naseb and was allowed to drift back in last furlong but actually only beaten 4l. Harry Bentley on tonight and a good draw. Currently 18’s.
    Worth a speculative e/w

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