Members Daily Post: 04/08/18 (complete)

All TIPS Goodood + Galway, )+ write ups) Section 1 (comp)

 

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Donny

4.05 –

Restorer   (all Hc’s)  w2 I3 8/1 

Another Eclipse   (all Hc’s)   ES+ 6/1 S3A

5.45 – Haylah   (micro age) H1 5/2 

 

Goodwood

2.25 –

Time To Study   (all Hc’s, 3yo, micro dist)  ES+  I3 16/1 S3A

Hochfield   (all Hc’s, 3yo, micro dist)  ES+ 14/1 S3A

Sofias Rock (all Hc’s, 3yo, micro dist) ES+ 14/1 S3A

Soldier In Action  (all Hc’s, 3yo, micro dist) ES+ 8/1 S3A

Watersmeet  (all Hc’s, 3yo, micro dist)   ES+ I1 18/1 S3A S6

3.40 – Foxtrot Lady  (micro dist) w1 H1 6/1 S6

5.25 –

Aquarium   (all Hc’s, 3yo) w2  ES+ I3 9/1 S3A

The Night Porter   (micro going if still GF)  w2 6/1 

 

Newmarket(July)

4.25 – Mistress Quickly   (all Hc’s, 3yo, micro dist)  ES+ H1 G3 5/1 S2 S3A#

 

Thirsk

2.50 –

Orions Bow   (micros class and dist) G3 7/2 

War Whisper   (micro age) w1 w2 H3 5/1 

3.25 – Areen Heart   (micro age) H3 9/1 

4.00 – Multellie   (micro class)  w1 H1 5/2 

4.35 – Rousayan   (micro dist) 14/1 

5.10 – Highland Bobby   (micro age) G3 11/1 

 

Hamilton

6.50 –

Kyllachy Dragon   (all Hc’s) H1 I1 9/2 S1

Nuns Walk   (3yo, micro age) w1 G3 I3 7/2 

7.50 – Regal Mirage   (3yo, micro age) H1 G3 I3 11/4  S2 S4

8.20 –

Colour Contrast   (all Hc’s, micro runs) I3 9/1 

Jack Blaine   (micro runs)  ES+ I3 20/1 S3A

Mama Said   (all Hc’s) 16/1 

Cool Run Girl   (all Hc’s) 50/1 

Ayton   (3yo, micro age) 12/1 

8.50 –

Inglorious   (micro runs)  ES+ G3 I1

Dalawyna   (all Hc’s, 3yo) H3 G1 3/1 S2

 

Lingfield

5.30 – Iballisticvin   (micro dist) H3 I3 7/2 

 

Bonus Jumps

Galway 4.45 – Oscar Knight   (all Hc’s) H3 14/1 S2 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 18/186,65p, +5.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +161.5)

Daily Tips 

None. 

Festival Tips

3pm Goodwood

Tis Marvellous – 1 point win – 10/1 (WH/BetfS) 9/1 (gen) 

Silent Echo – 1 point win – 11/1 (gen) 

Gunmetal – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) 

 

1.50 Goodwood

Golden Steps – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 

Dark Shot – 1 point win – 40/1 (gen) 

 

4.45 Galway 

Low Sun – 1 point win – 10/1 (PP/BetfS) 9/1 (gen) 

Bargy Lady – 1 point win – 18/1 (PP/BetfS) 16/1 (gen) 

 

That will be all for TIPS today. 11.45. 

Write up for the Stewards Cup is in the free post. 

1.50…

I had a look at some stats/trends for this and i’m not sure how robust they are. However 10/10 were running at the same OR or 1lb down max from last run. 10/10 had 2+ runs in the class and 10/10 had 1 or more handicap wins. Horses that won LTO are 0/33,4p in the last decade. Those stats don’t help too much, leaving 12, however Golden Steps is on that longlist…

Golden Steps..won this race a couple of years back for Botti off a much higher mark. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that his two most recent wins have been in 16+ runner handicaps… he’s a bit highly strung I think and it’s likely he relishes getting cover and a strong pace to aim at, bursting through horses late. Winston (an odd jockey booking for connections but I won’t over-think it) has plenty of pace around him here that he can just sit behind and hopefully be in the right spot. He’s come back into form on recent runs and ran well at Ascot, running on. They step him back up to 6f here which should suit and I thought 8s looked decent enough in the context of this race….

Back to the stats… with that initial longlist…well, this stat may just be random but 9/10 ran in a race with 13-16 runners LTO. I suppose it makes some logical sense, given you’d generally go a proper pace in such races/be surrounded by horses, so this race scenario is no shock to the system. 1/161,20p ran outside of those conditions LTO. Applying that stat leaves three..

Boy In The Bar / Lightening Charlie / Dark Shot…

I don’t think the first two look in great form albeit maybe LC is worth some chance on the machine but I don’t think he’s good enough. Boy In The Bar…well I think he’d be 3/4 points bigger were Moore not booked and in that scenario he may be a more backable price. Maybe this has been the plan but he ran a shocker LTO and given he’s won/ran well on soft before, I’m not sure it was just the going. Maybe i’ve read him wrong although at his best he could win this race, as it doesn’t look the strongest of C2s. He has a good record when returning to the track within 10 days also. So, you can clearly make a case. I preferred Golden Steps of those near the top of the market, but we shall see if that’s right or not. Anyway…

Dark Shot…having bothered to do the trends which resulted in a shortlist of 3, I felt obliged to back the 40s shot. If only i’d have had that attitude with the Ron Harris horse earlier in the week, we’d be approaching +200 for the festival/big race tips this year. Anyway, this one ran earlier in the week where he didn’t do much. However, I was just intrigued by the step back up to 6f. He’s only had 2 handicaps at this trip and for me he does run as if 5f may be too sharp for him these days. I wonder if he’d been having to go a stride too quick over 5f, hence running out of puff/fading away. IN the Epsom Dash he was running on into 4th, and if he repeated that run he wouldn’t run like a 40s shot, as he would if he repeated that York run. Maybe 6f can unlock more now. His last win came at Ascots very stiff 5f so you never know. He is probably just out of form again but there was enough there for a dabble at 40s. Theodore jumps back on with his 7lb and he usually likes to get them up there. I have no idea if he’s on the right side of the track but at these odds who cares 🙂 

Galway…

Well Mullins has farmed this handicap hurdle in recent years, winning 5 or the last 10, admittedly from 34 runners or so but given his form this week, i’d be mildly surprised if he didn’t win it again! 

I think his top two are worth taking on. Ruby’s mount could be anything and in time may look like a graded horse in a handicap. But he makes handicap debut here in a big field after a lengthy enough break. He’s short enough in that context and if he hacks up then fair enough. Clearly Ruby had the choice- possibly. It could be Mullins wants his main man on a young horse who is inexperienced at jumping in such a scenario, who they think a lot of, to look after him if needed and report back for the future. 

Uradel…well he may take this but there’s a chance he bounces here. He has never stood much racing at all and his price doesn’t seem overly generous given that profile. He may prove me wrong but the time to back him was when winning earlier in the week. That boat has sailed, unless you had the odd dabble on a mullins micro or two of course! 🙂 

So…Low Sun.. this one has a touch of class I think and i’m interested to see him over this new trip. He won a decent enough 16f handicap on the flat recently so arrives here fit and in winning form. If you stay that trip on the flat I think you get 2m6.5f around here. But, we will soon find out. He usually races prominently and his jockey is the regular pilot it seems, so maybe nothing in that jockey booking. She usually races him up there and while they may keep hold of him to get him home, hopefully he’s not too far off the pace. This race is there to be one from on the front end. 

Bargy Lady just seemed a big price for a mare who arrives in winning form 17 days ago. Mares in form can be worth sticking with and given her non handicap form in the slop, hopefully the ground is ok. It could be her recent improvement has been down to the going but given that novice/NHF form it’s hard to say she doesn’t handle soft. It could be that everything has just clicked and he’s improving rapidly. I was happy to have a play and fancied these two above his other runners in this not already mentioned. If one of his other biggies win it that would be annoying but I think these two have the best form/could improve further for conditions. We will soon find out. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

2.20 Donc – Ad Libitum 

Top of the Class

2.25 G – Hochfeld/Sofias Rock/Soldier In Action / Time to Study 

4.15 G – Sky Defender / West End Charmer 

4.50 – Lake Volta / Vale of Kenty 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Galway 

Mullins Micro 

(fair to say this has worked this year, 9/30,17p, +33.5 SP on all qualifiers)

5.20 – Suinda

5.55 – Miss Chevious Girl

 

Goodwood

M Johnston Micro 

2.25-Soldier In Action / Watersmeet

4.50 – Lake Volta / Vale of Kent

 

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Recap..

Well A Rated and more importantly Top othe Ra (11s dec after R4) have ensured I can enjoy the week now I think, helping to bring in +13.5 points yesterday for Festival Tips, putting all tipping content on the week at Goodwood/Galway on +12.5 points. +20.5 points at Galway, which given my liking for a ‘jumps’ festival (and Willie Mullins at such mixed meetings it seems) maybe isn’t such a surprise, albeit I’ll try and find a Goodwood winner, currently -8 there on the week. Escobar… I can’t complain as I semi predicted what may happen but hoped DT would ride him further forward. Alas he got stuck behind a wall of horses. He tanked through the race and was last off the bridle and I don’t think ever had proper daylight/time to wind up, but I need to watch it back. Annoying that Moore wins on one drawn next to him with a similar running style, but that sort of ride is why he’s so good. On we go… sprint handicap time…

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

35 Responses

  1. U.S. Racing Tips Friday night – Saratoga race 10, 11.17 UK time, Four Freedoms.

    Thursdays tip was a loser.

    Good luck.

  2. If I’ve missed any please add them.

    MJ micro

    2.25 – Soldier in Action / Watersmeet
    4.50 – Lake Volta / Vale of Kent

    Others
    1.50 – Boyinthebar
    3.40 – Foxtrot Lady >12
    4.50 – Chai Chai > 12

    WM micro
    5.20 – Suinda
    5.55 – Miss Chevious Girl

    Others
    3.35 – Nam
    4.10 – Our Legend
    4.45 – Oscar Knight
    5.20 – Triplicate > 5
    5.55 – Good Scent > 5

    No idea where to find JP nags without checking every runner!!!!
    Mike

    1. Yes, had it at 12/1 and so well done Josh!

      The Mullins systems I have, ‘Not ridden by Ruby at Galway’, found another winner on Friday, Nessum Dorma, matched at 18.5, SP 14/1, minus 3 losers on the day.
      On Saturday in the 4.45 there are 7 qualifiers and in the 5.20 Suinda and in the 5.55 Miss Chevious Girl.

      Good luck.

  3. Poor day at Wolves tonight. Best result of the night was NR in the 7.40, giving us -6pts to start off August.

    Chelmsford tomorrow. Qualifiers below:
    1.40 Fantasy Keeper 13/2
    2.10 Something Lucky 8/1
    3.20 Emphatic 10/1
    4.30 Carvelas 10/1 & Wallflower 8/1

    1pt win each

    Good Luck

  4. Josh – the Chris baxendale stats from last year might help if you’re struggling for time??? Not sure if they won and not had time to check myself either.

    1. Stewards Cup – 10 / 266, 40p

      10/10,34p Won in CL2< (81%,85%)
      10/10 Were down 1 or same CL (80%,90%)
      10/10,33p Had 0-1 Track R (70%,83%)

      9/10,20p Had 4-7 runs last yr (90%,39%,50%)
      9/10 IRE or GB bred
      9/10,33p OR 95-104 (90%,80%,83%)
      9/10 Were 0lbs ahead (90%,82%,93%)
      9/10,32p Had 0-4 runs 90 days (90%,77%,80%)
      9/10,31p Had 2-5 S-runs (90%,69%,78%)

      8/10,32p Finished 1-3 in last 3 (80%,74%,80%)
      8/10,25p Had won over 6f only (80%,58%,63%)

      1/107,7p SP 28/1 or above
      2/89,11p Stall 20-28 v 8/177,29p below
      0/58,6p moved up 1f

      Trainer: Fahey 0/23,4p / Ryan 0/15,0p / Hagg 2/8,4p
      Track lto: Ham 0/18,1p / Newc 0/17,3p / Newb 0/13,1p /Hayd 0/11,2p /Ches 0/9,2p
      Asc 3/78,15p / New(J) 3/39,7p / York 1/38,4p

      Using the 10/10 stats only leaves (10/115,25p):
      Foxtrot Lady
      Spring Loaded
      Gunmental

  5. ITV racing,
    6-1 and above ew
    Goodwood
    1-50. Classic Seniority 11-1 bet365 5 places (sky paying 7 places but shorter odds)
    2-25. Platitude 9-1, Watersmeet 12-1 skybet 4 places
    3-00. no bet
    3-40. Spring Loaded 15-2, Reputation 40-1 sky 7 places
    Newmarket
    2-05. Melodic Motion 9-2
    2-40. Thriving 13-2, Ginger Nut 8-1

  6. question to fellow pundits about betting banks do you use more than one betting bank or do you put all your bets in one bank . this is a tricky one for me your views would be really helpfull

    1. Separate bank for different sports but no more than that. All banks equal 100 points at £25 per point and then any profit over 100 points at end of month taken out. Simple stuff really.

  7. Stayed off here for a while, like i said last time can`t seem to pick em on the flat, will give it one last stab today along with one race from Galway, been closely following the Mullins yard this week and he has had some really weird ones winning… so, here goes.
    13:50 Goodwood
    OEIL DE TIGRE 14/1 gen 1pt ew
    Is 3 from 3 around Goodwood, claiming jockey has won on him already 5 times and may be hard to pass at his favourite course, value at 14/1.
    BOY IN THE BAR 9/1 gen 1pt ew
    I believe Mr Moore will win one of the big sprints today, hopefully this one and then go down in the big one, c and d winner who should battle it out with Oeil de tigre.

    15:40 Goodwood
    TIS MARVELLOUS 11/1 bfr 1pt ew
    Was drawn on the wrong side in the Wokingham and still finished 4th, now, hopefully he should be fully wound up and will make amends for that by winning here.
    REPUTATION 50/1 gen 1pt ew
    Another who has been knocking on the door of big handicaps, his speed figures suggest if he pings out he could surprise a few! at 50/1 generally available I`m willing to put that to the test.

    16:45 Galway
    LAREENA 18/1 pp 1pt ew
    One of the Mullins entourage, can`t really keep this one out of calculations as she just keeps on getting better, if she gets a good tow into the race, she will be there or thereabouts at the finish and this extra distance may be what she needs to get her head in front!
    LOW SUN 14/1 gen 1pt ew
    Another one who pushed to the fore of my thoughts, the way he powered ahead at The Curragh on the flat shows he has an abundance of speed, if he pops over the hurdles i feel he will win this comfortably once the jumping has been done!

    Good luck with whatever you back today!

      1. I think it’s mainly luck of the draw with that debate, bookies are all similar, some stop you betting for some reasons others stop you for different reasons. So far so good with Sky for me, well ahead with them and withdrawn as well…..cue restrictions!!!

  8. COLINS BETS
    Goodwood
    3.40 Growl
    4.50 Vale Of Kent
    4.50 Nicklaus
    Thirsk
    4.00 Mulltellie
    Lingfield
    6.05 Rainbow Jazz
    Hamilton
    7.50 Monaco Rose

  9. Thurs and Fri made up for the poor start to the week. Highlight being the win for Top of the Ra yesterday 14/1 adv (13.6 with R4), although when my thoughts align with either Josh or Nick I know I am on the right track :-).

    Chris M Selections:
    Goodwood
    14:25 – Watermeet (18/1 gen)
    16:50 – Zap (13/2 gen)

    Newmarket
    16:25 – Mistress Quickly (4/1 Bet365, 7/2 gen)

    Hamilton
    20:50 – Dawawyna (7/2 gen)

    Lingfield
    17:30 – Iballisticvin (7/2 gen)
    18:05 – Willingforshilling (15/2 gen)

    Doncaster
    17:45 – Cale Lane (13/2 gen)

    Sunday is normally my off day but got some spare time in the morning so if anything takes my fancy I will post it, happy punting today!

    1. Not part of my selections but I have a few in my tracker from my eyecatchers in the Stewards Cup so I will be backing them along with a good few of the other selections others have posted. Surely between us all we can find the winner….

      Growl – Tracked 28/7/18 York. Running at a very attractive mark right now. (12/1 gen)
      Justanotherbottle – Tracked 14/7/18 at Ascot. Made the best advances from the far side group in that race. Up a furlong here but drawn better (33/1 gen)
      Merhoob – Tracked 31/7/18 at Yarmouth. Ran well in C3 LTO and looks like 6f is the distance he wants now. (80/1 gen)

      None of these were in my selections as I don’t like to back a race that has more than 1 of my tracked horses in it. Simply put I would end up arguing myself out of the winner, better for my sanity 🙂

  10. I’m a Tis Marvellous backer, but think the stable could land an unlikely treble with:
    150 Chagatai – dropped in grade and an easy six could suit
    415 Cloak and Dagger – in obvious need of this 7th furlong.

  11. Stewards Cup: Tis Marvellous, Gifted Master and JustAnotherBottle 0.75pt e/w for each
    Goodwood 13:50 Tommy G 1pt e/w
    Thirsk 15:25 Whatsthemessage 1pt e/w
    Newmarket 15:50 Maksab 1pt e/w
    Doncaster 16:05 Von Blucher 1pt e/w

    1. That is unbelievable Nick!

      I backed all of yours plus I did £5 exactas and £2 trifectas AS AN AFTERTHOUGHT!

      £3798.50 for an outlay of £42.

      Thank you!

    1. Thank you Nick. I have turned £250 into over a thousand following you over the last 3 months. Keep em coming please.

      Stephen

  12. In Sofia today taking in the CSKA game tonight back in UK Tuesday night and taking a party of 6 to Bath (at Chepstow) races Wednesday so any thru the card help from Josh would be much appreciated
    Decided to have a break from backing this weekend – just seen Nick’s results – bad choice by me

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