Free Daily Post: 03/08/18 (complete)

3pm Goodwood tips/preview

Well it hasn’t been the best of weeks with my Festival Tipping as yet, with a few dodgy decisions and winners missed. But, there are still two days to go. I’ve only managed to find one winner from fourteen stabs, and currently sit on -1 point across Goodwood (-6) and Galway (+5). Today i’ve focussed on the 3pm from Goodwood… from the members’ post...

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 18/186,65p, +5.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +145)

Festival Tips

3.00 Goodwood

Escobar – 2 points win – 13/2 (Coral/Betf) 6/1 (gen) 

Isomer – 1 point win -33/1 (Lad/WH) 28/1 (gen)

(‘the machine’ may be worth a look for Isomer. 55s+ not impossible)

*as of 21.50 yesterday…

I have used some stats/trends for this… 10/10 were aged 6 or younger, 10/10 top 3 at least once last 3 runs, 10/10 2-5 career wins. That leaves 9… Seniority, Escobar, Fire Brigade, Repercussion, Cape Byron, Oiginal Choice, Zwayyan, Isomer, Hayadh

Those drawn in box 16 or higher are 0/116,11p in the last 20 years and if that holds true this year, Cape B, Original Choice and Zwayyan are done for from that list. I’m sure Fire Brigade needs a hydrant to burst on track and so does Repercussion. I think they need more cut and in any case don’t look in the best of form, but maybe Bell’s will run well. Those that ran at Ascot LTO are 0/50,13p in the last decade. It doesn’t appear to be the perfect prep track for this race. Seniority has that to overcome and is short for one that is usually held up. His draw is good on paper but may not be if he has a wall of horses in front of him. Maybe they will go forward and he will do me, but i’ll take him on. 

That leaves three… I will mention Hayadh (name your price…). I may have had change on at 100.00 ‘just in case’ but I don’t think he’s in any sort of form or will be good enough. IF he repeated that Wetherby run though, he’d outrun these odds. Fanning is on which I found interesting and in a race without much pace on paper, he may race prominent. If he ran up to his best he may place, i’d be a bit sick if he stayed there and won! Surely he won’t, but i’ve seen a biggie on a stats shortlist go in once at Goodwood earlier in the week… 

Escobar… Nick is probably messaging me as I write because my record when I go beyond my usual 1 point is rather abject, as he likes to remind me. It does represent a certain level of confidence as he ticks so many boxes here. He shows up well on the stats and is well drawn. I’d like to think Tudhope may race him more prominently here and I wouldn’t fall off my seat if this had been the plan given the size of pot. At Sandown the last day he was given a rather impossible task from near the back. He was given a very patient ride and the Hannon horse got first run. That horse was thoroughly unexposed and is clearly smart. Escobar showed a good turn of foot mid race to my eye having watching it back and ran like a horse with a bit in hand still. He dismissed Via Serendipity in 3rd who I since tipped at Ascot where he ran a credible fourth in a decent handicap. This former listed winner as a juvenile also showed his class at Haydock three runs ago. He cut through the field with ease and won fairly snugly come the line, beating a lot of in form horses in the process. He has never run well at Ascot so am happy to ignore that run. With any luck they’ve been holding him up recently to get him to settle into his races. I hope they race him just behind the pace here, pounce a couple from home and win going away. Knowing my luck they will hold him up again and he will find all sorts of trouble, but Danny T isn’t usually that stupid in this scenario. His turn of foot may come in handy.  The yard is in red hot form and there’s just something about his recent runs which makes me think today is the day he may show some real class. He has track experience and he’s sure to relish the drying ground, which can’t be said for plenty in here. They also put the TT on first time. Maybe they don’t want to leave anything to chance! Oh, and he’s top rated on Geegeez with a big speed figure and second in on HRB. The numbers back up the visuals. 8 of the last 21 (8/35 runners or so) were sent off at 6/1 or shorter. 

Isomer…a bit of a flyer but he ticks plenty of boxes and I found it interesting that Norton has been booked. Given the lack of pace on paper his draw could be ok (a horse has won from this wide in the last decade) and I expect Norton to get him racing prominently. He seems to run very well or not so well but it could be that rattling fast ground has done for him on two of his recent runs. It is drying out here but with the addition of some fresh ground also, it shouldn’t be ratting quick just yet. If he repeated his Newmarket run from earlier in the season or even that Chelmsford win, he’d out-run these odds I think. He could take it up deep into this race and be the one to pass. He appeared to be too free the last day and as I said may have hated the going. He could just be in and out but he hits the main stats and is an interesting outsider. I was happy to have a stab. If he ran to his best here, he’d be in the shake up. 

Clearly I may not have mentioned the winner but hopefully they can both run well. Poet’s Society is interesting given he is the only out and out front runner in the race, drawn 7, Dettori booked. I’m not sure why she should bounce back to form here though. He did have to use up too much energy earlier in the week and this easier 8f may just be fine. He may be another interesting outside for the in form Johnston yard. 

*

Best of luck, 

Josh 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

7 Responses

  1. There are some far better exponents of Jockey/Trainer accumulators around than me, but can’t take my eyes off Mr McCain’s 8 runners at local track Bangor today.

    May be just getting them “tightened up” for his annual September rush, but covers 6 races and 2 outsiders doubling up in 2 of those races looks prime “small stake possible high e/w reward” dabble.

  2. Yesterday flat profit 6.5
    NH 4@bog, 3 @ sp
    flat
    G 1.50 – Eminent @ 13/2
    3.00 – Original Choice @ 16 , plcd t’other day when I tipped it so poss e/w again
    4.40 – Dance Diva @ 28 poss e/w
    M 8.20 – Danzay @ 4
    8.50 – Burmese Blazer @ 8
    N 5.50 – Sailing Home @ 11/2
    W 5.30 – Bomad @ 9/2
    8.10 – Rinaria @ 14
    NH
    B 2.35 – For Gabriel @ 12 and Marquis of Carabas @ 9
    4.20 – Wazowski @ 13/2

  3. Goodwood 6f Nursery 4.10pm
    Ratings
    1. Leading Spirit
    2. Tin Hat, Jungle Inthebungle, Barend Boy, Leoube, Big ace, Swiss Pride, Port Of Leith, Dixieland
    I got Leading Spirit won on debut I think only rating him around 70. His performance at Newbury lto suggested this was at least 5lb light and he also put up a good speed figure. He is certainly the most likely winner on achievement to date.
    However when I saw Ballistic on debut I rated him 78 with the comment ‘a bit hairy’, I then saw him 2to at Leicester and put him up here. He finished 5th 2to at Leicester and my comment was ‘still not fit’. On his third run he finished third to two good ones, Roderick and Woodside Wonder. Both the last two runs he went off too fast over 5f, once taken on by a stablemate.
    Ballistic gets in here off 8.0. Cowell is 20% with first time handicappers, draw not brilliant and jockey open to question. I do not feel about this one the way I did about Greeley but if my 78 on debut was right and for one reason or another things have not gone his way he might be a 12/1 or 8/1 shot rather than a 33/1 one.
    I shall pay to find out.
    Hugh

  4. Each day back all his runners 1pt win and stop at a winner. It’s that simple.
    Day 3 he won the first with Communique paying 4.84 on betfair so balance is -6.1 +3.84= minus 2.26pts
    10 runners today with Threading in the second race kicking things off. I hope he has a winner before the last as he has 5 going in that!

  5. Wolverhampton 6.35 6f Mdn
    Ratings
    1. Grenadier
    2. Uncle Jerry, Molly Mai

    Ratings Bet 1pt Win Molly Mai this is one I was hoping to get a good price about. Looks unlikely.

    Comment from debut – Molly Mai – about the scopiest in the paddock but not hard fit. Still leggy, potential for some improvement. 67

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