1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Festival Tips

Galway…

4.35

David’s Charm – 1 point win – 13/2 (general) UP

Voix De Rev – 1 point win – 22/1 (Bet365/Lad/WH) 20/1 (gen) UP*

well that was disappointing…not getting a run from either… David’s race was over after the first furlong having been slowly away and poorly positioned, which is always annoying. I expected Voix De Rev to be up there but was instead held up. He ran ok to a point before flattening turning for home. The winner did have an interesting profile for this race but again I wasn’t close enough – one of those profile’s i’d look for in a Cheltenham Handicap Hurdle and seem to have inextricably overlook today…decent novice form, with few runs in a handicap/big field handicap. This one had a prep LTO and was making handicap debut. He was going to win a G1 novice over Christmas but for falling at the last (a G1!!) and on reflection was clearly the class horse in the race, with more to come. Prominent racer. 16s this morning. Poor. That’s a frustrating result as I should be closer to those. 

 

Goodwood…

1.50 – Bathsheba Bay – 1 point win 7/1 (gen) 

3.35 – Billesdon Brook -1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 

(write up in free post for Goodwood tips) 

That will be all for Festival tips…09.40…write ups on way…

 

Galway hurdle….

David’s Charm… I found it hard to ignore that 8 of the last 10 in this have been sent off at 7s or shorter and as such was happy to side with what could be considered a ‘shorty’ in a race like this. Historically the market/bookies, usually get this right. I think David’s Charm is the only horse in the race who has been plotted for this since before Christmas. This has been the plan and given his form in handicap hurdles when last seen, I suspect he’s still got a bit up his sleeve. He won well enough at this meeting last year, still looking green. He was then narrowly denied by Lagostovegas (solid, and we saw what she can do at Ascot) where he would have won two strides after the line. She got the run on him that day in a muddling race. He put that right by then beating a very competitive field at Fairyhouse, the form of which was franked at times this season. He was put away after that race with this race in mind, having two spins on the flat recently to get him up to speed. Race conditions look ideal, he generally jumps well, and he sees this trip out very well, which will be a positive in this rain softened ground. He usually races mid division and will clearly need some luck. If he gets it, I think he’s the one they will all have to beat here and I will be disappointed if he isn’t bang there as they swing for home. 

Voix De Rev – at 20s this is the one from my trends shortlist of three that I liked most. He has really come into his own the last twice and could now just be a better horse. While he hasn’t beaten much he couldn’t have been more impressive. It’s possible front running tactics have made the difference, or he’s just learnt to settle/see out his races, as he’s matured. He ran a decent race in this year’s Coral Cup..well, he was leading as they swung for home, in soft, before stamina seemingly gave way. I can’t say for certain that he doesn’t handle soft, esp over this trip, and at these odds I was happy to roll the dice. Paul Townend could have ridden this one so that may be a negative, but I don’t like making punting decisions just on jockey bookings. That’s a dangerous game, esp with 20s+ shots. I hope they bounce him out and try and make all/race prominently. He could get stuck in the mud late on but he looked an interesting outsider for this red hot yard. 

Of the rest…well of course I may not have mentioned the winner. Whiskey Sour could take this, but he will need even more luck than David’s Charm given he is usually held up right out the back. If he were a front runner/on the pace runner, i’d have had a dilemma here I think, but on the basis of his usual running style I have left him. He may well look the winner at some point but unless you have stacks in hand it’s hard to come from too far back here. Of course they may race him up there this time. He has plenty of class and won’t be a shock winner, but hopefully David’s or Voix may have set sail and he’ll have left it too late. I was happy to leave the 4 and 5 year olds, albeit Cartright looked interesting. I’ll mention Leon Cavallo…I wasn’t sure he’d relish this ground and I wasn’t sure he’d be good enough for this test. But, he could still have a bit in hand. Maybe some change on the machine on the other two on the stats/trends shortlist, but my head said leave them both. 

*

Recent Losing Daily Tips

4.55 Strat- Visage Blanc (3rd run) UP

8.00 Epsom – Pursuing Steed (2nd run) / Hedging (2nd run) 

 

 

 

Galway: Day 4 

‘Qualifiers’ against stats report above

Mullins Micro 

1.40 – Minella Beau 

2.15 – Cadmium / Miss Sapphire / Robin Des Foret / Screaming Rose 

4.00 – Calie Dy Mesnil / Causey Arch / Exchange Rate / Sapphire Lady 

5.15 – Townshend 

5.50 – Golden Spread 

Henry De Bromhead Micro

1.40 – Schmidt 

2.15 – Ornua 

Others

1.40 – Aeglos (5/1<)

4.35 – any JP horse 5/1<, Tigris River (5/1<), Le Richbourg (5/1<) Top of the Ra

5.15 – Song of The Sky

*

Precious Ramotswe / Lady Of Shalott / Isabel De Urbina 

 

3.00

Trainer Race Pointers

Neverland Rock / Marie’s Diamond 

Trainers ‘in form’

Cool Reflection 

Top Rated Runners

Marie’s Diamond / Maries Diamond / Konchek 

 

3.35

Trainer Race Pointers

Rhododendron / Veracious 

Trainers ‘in form’

Urban Fox / Veracious / Wild Illusion 

Top Rated Runners

Urban Fox / Billesdon Brook / Rhododendron 

 

4.10 

Trainer Race Pointers

Cupboard Love 

Trainers ‘in form’

Revich / Barristan The Bold / 

Top Rated Runners

Shaybani / St Ouen / More Than This 

 

4.45

Trainer Race Pointers

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Trainers ‘in form’

Mehdaayih / Wingreen 

Top Rated Runners

Lady Cosette / Deira Surprise / Deira Surprise 

 

5.20

Trainer Race Pointers

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Trainers ‘in form’

Lord Riddiford / Porchy Party 

Top Rated Runners

Cowboy Soldier / Iconic Knight / Cowboy Soldier