Free Daily Post: 01/08/18 (complete)

Galway Plate Tips/write up…, Goodwood ‘through the card’ pointers

No luck yesterday with my two members tips that I repeated in the Free post. Thankfully Riven Light won at 12/1 to end the day on a high, +7 for my ‘festival tips’ all in. I’ve bounced back to form in the last 16 days or so, +30 points or thereabouts from my tips and with any luck I can keep it going in the Galway Plate. As it’s a handicap chase those will count towards the ‘free tips’ profit pile which sits on +64.5 points for 2018 to date. Below that are some ‘through the card’ pointers for Goodwood, to use as starting points. These found 5 of the 7 winners on Day 1…

Let’s get cracking…

 

Free Tips

(Free tips 2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018, 9/92,28p, +61.5, Members Festival Tips: +152)

7.20 Galway: The Galway Plate

Sub Lieutenant – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen) UP (5th, an ok run) 

Drumcliff – 1 point win – 16/1 (BetfS/PP) 14/1 (gen) Fell (ah, annoying, he’d hit the front. It was a long way out but had jumped well up to that point. He had pulled a bit so may well have faded up the hill, but i suspect he’d have stayed on stronger than Clarcam but we will never know. Annoying)

Peregrine Run – 1 point win – 16/1 (betfS/PP) 14/1 (gen) UP, poor, never really in it. Possibly ground went against him as feared. 

 

My 10/10 and 9/10 stats/trends from my members report for this race gave results of 8/54,18p, +83 BFSP for the last 10 runnings and left a working list of 6… The West Awake (2nd reserve), Patricks Park (1st reserve) , Slowmotion , Drumcliff, Peregrine Run, Sub Lieutenant. 

I have used those as a guide and appear to have landed on the three at the biggest odds. Having been through all the runners and riders i’m happy with those three and with any luck they can give me a good spin…

Sub Lieutenant… it’s hard to win this race from the top of the handicap but not impossible and at 20s I couldn’t resist having a nibble given it’s only his second run in a handicap chase and there’s every chance he could just outclass this lot. He’s been running for an age in Grade 1 races without looking quite up to that level. This is quite the class drop really and his usual prominent running style should be suited to here. Henry De Bromhead has a decent record in the race now, the horse has won fresh before, like almost every horse in the race this has no doubt been the plan, and the yard are in red hot form. Yesterday in the members’ post I tipped Riven Light at 12s (for +7 on the day all in on the tips) who I thought may be a group horse in a handicap, and thus weight was irrelevant to a point. So it proved. This is a graded horse in a handicap and while not quite a G1 performer this is one of the easier races he’s contested in recent years. Given his place on my trends shortlist, the connections, the trainer, his prominent running style, and his price, I just couldn’t help myself. 

Drumcliff…he ticks all my main stats here and 6 or 7 year olds have the best record in this. He is getting his act together over fences, is still unexposed and there is a chance that this trip brings out a bit more. He will have to step forward again, does have to prove he can handle the track and the rough nature of this race, but I get a decent price to find out. This has been a long term plan and Harry knows what he’s doing when sending one over the water. The jockey (his sister-in-law I believe) gets on well with the horse and while there are better riders in the race, at least they did win a 17 runner handicap chase when last seen. With any luck she will try and race him prominently and she does have experience of the track. He seems versatile ground wise and it’s worth paying to find out whether he’s up to a race like this. He did it well enough the last day and he won’t have stopped improving yet. 

Peregrine Run…. the jumps track has dried out to good however there is 8-10mm of rain forecast before racing so I don’t really know if that will turn it yielding or ‘proper soft’. No idea how well the place drains etc. IF it is proper soft come race time then this will be one point loaned back to the bookies as he wants it yielding at worse. But at this price i won’t tie myself up in knots as to guessing what the going could be. This one has a touch of class on his day, is unexposed in handicap chases, and could be really suited to this test. His run 4 starts ago at last year’s meeting in a G3 novice has worked out well. Again, like most in here, this has been the plan, with a spin on the Flat LTO. Horses that ran at one of the summer Killarney Festivals or the Punchestown Festival have won 8 of the last 10 renewals, and I have two on my side here ticking that box. Horses that had a prep on the flat have a decent enough record in this and certainly wouldn’t put you off. This one will win a nice handicap chase or two in time I suspect, hopefully starting today! 

Of the rest…well I wanted three at double figures but I wouldn’t put anyone off Slowmotion I suppose. She ran a decent 3rd in this last year as a 5 year old which was a tough ask. She’ll have developed since then and they apply the blinkers, which she’s been schooling well in at home according to the trainer. I just thought her price seemed about right/maybe short enough, given the first time blinkers in a race surrounded by 22 horses, and she’s usually held up. If she gets a good position, settles, jumps and travels she won’t be far away come the death here. But it’s a game of price and that didn’t seem overly generous in a race like this, given those niggles. Patrick’s Park has a solid chance if he gets in- he needs one to drop out, but again 7s is probably about right in a race like this. But he’d go well if getting in. No doubt i’ve picked the wrong De Bromhead horse. It’s that sort of race. You can make some sort of case for plenty but i’m happy with my three pokes and hopefully they give me a good spin. It’s likely I may not have mentioned the winner! 

*

Goodwood Day 2

The ‘through the card pointers’ found 5 of the 7 winners on Day 1, included somewhere…at 7/1, 9/2, 5/1, 4/5, 9/2, again proving their worth as a set of ‘starting points’ for further research…here are today’s from the members’ post..

 

Goodwood ‘Through The Card’ pointers

Trainer Race Pointers

Festivals/race trends…Trainers that have won said race 2x or more and have a runner

Trainers ‘in form’

’14’Geegeez Symbol as per key 

Top Rated Runners

Those horses top rated on HorseRaceBase / Geegeez / Inform

*

1.50

Trainer Race Pointers

Dominating / Cool Sky 

Trainers ‘in form’

Coeur De Lion / Piedita/Lil Rockerfeller 

Top Rated Runners

Lil Rockerfeller /Coeur De Lion / Kloud Gate 

 

2.25 

Trainer Race Pointers

making Miracles / Lynwood Gold / Bailey’s Excelerate 

Trainers ‘in form’

Proschema / Drill 

Top Rated Runners

Making Miracles / Soto Sizzler / Proschema 

 

3.00 

Trainer Race Pointers

Barbill / Queen of Bermuda 

Trainers ‘in form’

rumble Inthejungle/ Soldiers Call / Street Parade / deia glory / Queen Of Bermuda 

Top Rated Runners

Well done / Queen of Bermuda / Soldiers Call

 

3.35 

Trainer Race Pointers

Gustav Klimpt 

Trainers ‘in form’

Lord Glitters / So Beloved / Without Parole 

Top Rated Runners

Without Parole /Expert Eye / Lightening Spear 

 

4.10 

Trainer Race Pointers

Munaajaat 

Trainers ‘in form’

Lovin / Mrs Worthington / 

Top Rated Runners

yourtimeisnow /Welcoming / Welcoming 

 

4.45 

Trainer Race Pointers

/ (Bilesdon Bess won it last year) 

Trainers ‘in form’

Four White Socks / Musical Art 

Top Rated Runners

Savaanah / Magnolia Springs / Magnolia Springs 

 

5.55

Trainer Race Pointers

/ (Truth of Dare won this last year) 

Trainers ‘in form’

Medieval / Handytalk 

Top Rated Runners

Vale of Kent / Truth Or Dare / Vale of Kent 

*

Best of luck with any bets today, 

Josh 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

11 Responses

  1. Golf – No joy with the 8 point win bet on Langer last week. Beaten by Jiminez by one stroke. I am now minus 32.75 points for 2018.

    At the WGC this week I like Rory at 12/1 on a course for bombers at Firestone. So 2.5 points each way. I also agree with Xander Schauffele at 40/1, 1 point each way.

    Good luck.

    1. P.S. Tournament match bet – Adam Scott to beat Sergio Garcia. A Player in from v one out of form. Can be backed on Matchbook but may be available on other sites?

      Good luck.

  2. 5 x 2nd yesterday for flat profit of -6, -4 if doing e/w
    Nh profit 2.5
    G 1.50 – Northwest Frontier @ 9
    2.25 – Proschema @ 12
    4.45 – Billesdon Bess @ 12
    R 5.30 – Size Matters @ 4
    6.00 – Muthany @ 11
    S 5.45 – Chikoko Trail @ 5
    8.05 – Arendelle @ 2
    8.35 – Elysees @ 7/2
    NH
    P 3.10 – Our Lucas @ 4
    4.20 – Trongate @ 11
    4.55 – Copt Hill @ 17/2

  3. Goodwood Wednesday
    Molecombe 5f Stakes
    Ratings
    1. Soldiers Call, Fantasy, Life Of Riley, Queen Of Bermuda
    2. Barbill, Street Parade, Well Done Fox,
    3. Vintage Brut
    Previous comments on those seen
    Life Of Riley – Smaller strongly made but a bit clumsy at the back. Probably limited by size and shape. 81
    Barbill – lost it at the start jumping maybe 2l slower than the principals. Looked to make a challenge 2 out but always held out wide. May be under-estimated nto. Powerful smaller sprinter. 78
    Vintage Brut – Medium sized, poweful back end. Not physically as impressive as expected in that for a sprinter with his turn of foot he was not as bulky as a couple of the others. Still, well put together and clearly very talented. 94
    Well Done Fox – disappointing that it did not stay on closer to the winning three although not given a hard time. Interesting to see if it was because he is a bit slow or if the Hannon 2yos are not as forward as hoped. If he goes to Goodwood or similar next then we will know he was just unready if he drops to Bath then it is because he is not much use and they want a quick win. I lean toward him being a good one. 78
    Starchant 63
    Conclusion – unless something jumps out in the pre-parade hard to oppose Soldiers Call
    Victoria Racing Club 6f Fillies Mdn
    Ratings
    1. Alhakmah, Desert Lantern, Glass Slippers, Parliament House, Sabai Sabai, Wecoming, Yourtimeisnow
    2. Aim Power, Disco Doris, Time For Bed
    3. Feel Glorious, Isabella Red, Lovin, Mrs Worthington, Quarry Beach
    Previous comments on those seen
    Dancing Warrior – No picture, badly drawn, green, went right and lost ground, finished ok 69?
    Time For Bed Yak with no backend. 55
    Yourtimeisnow – Medium, athletic, big strong back end. Not given a hard time and would have won over 7f. 86
    Conclusion – Yourtimeisnow looks as good a starting place as any. Found the winner Threading, last year in the paddock so will be hoping to do the same again.
    Hugh

  4. I posted this in members yesterday, but this is its proper home.
    With winners traditionally hard to find at Goodwood I devised a small method a few years ago which has always got me out of trouble and allowed me to breakeven when the 2yos went awry.

    It is a Mark Johnston stop at a winner method.

    Each day back all his runners 1pt win and stop at a winner. It’s that simple. He usually has 3 in race 1 on day 1 so tomorrow is a bit less painful to start as he has only one runner in the first.

    Day1 Dark Vision was the second runner and won at BFSP of 3.9 Less 1pt lost on first runner.
    Balance +2.9pts

    Day 2 qualifiers
    1.50 Dominating
    2.25 making Miracles
    4.10 Parliament House
    4.45 Juneau
    5.55 Masham Star, Poet’s Society, Vale Of Kent
    Let’s hope we get a winner before having to outlay 3pts in the last.
    Hugh

  5. It’s due to lash down in Galway today & when it rains there it really comes down.
    It would be prudent to expect soft ground at a min for the plate this evening. I liked Peregrine too but his chance will be gone with the rain which ive confirmed is already coming down in Galway & the price has drifted – sorry Josh!
    My 3 for the Plate are Calino D’airy, Tully East & De Plotting Shed.
    Calino D’airy has a similar profile to last year’s winner and has huge scope to progress over the step up in trip. I’m on 16’s, 10’s is probably still okay. There is a bit of concern that Cooper rides while that interesting Robinson is on SL given he’s won on the horse before. Sub Lieu has a big weight to carry which is off-putting as only 2 have done it this century – one of which finished 3rd in a GC.
    Tully East has form in big field hcaps, he travels & jumps well and today he gets 16lbs pull with PP for 8.25L beating in Leop back in Feb. Hopefully he doesn’t get too far back in this – he will need a bit of luck in running. I’m holding out for 12’s which is highly likely as PP will be backed and there’s been money for Calino & Slomo already. Tully East to be produced on the final bend to get up late in the day (maybe).
    De Plotting Shed is one I’ve successfully opposed to much gain over the last yr. He seems to have a mental weakness in finishes since chasing. Still a maiden in chases he has back class over hurdles which is arguably the best in the race. A change of jockey & tactics along with step up in trip on soft ground could find the key to getting him over the line. Trainer has excellent form in big field hcap chases too – DPS was a close 2nd to Presenting Percy over C&D last Oct with a reproduction of that sort of form he’ll go close today. A smaller ew bet @ 14/1 with 5 places I would hope to get a decent run for a place at least.
    The top 2 are solid, PP is likely to improve again for the step up in trip and of the 2 he’d be the saver @ 7’s. Jury Duty has solid form in Graded company therefore he has to give weight to all the runners of a similar age. He is a danger but not a bet at 13/2 for me.
    Slowmotion is short – the horse is the essence of a JP plot off the same mark as 3rd in this last year. Her form since last yr is poor though – 16’s was a decent bet last week but half that today is too short. She’s more exposed compared to others at the top of the market.

  6. Had a good spell of heavy rain here in east of the county,but its the misty rain now that will tend to sit and soak in.My improvised going stick gets me down to 2.5 inches and there is a bit of give in the surface.Presumably they will have been watering the track which will although sounds contradictory will aid drainage

      1. Clerk just given a video update on twitter…stopped raining. Got 10 mm or so may get little bit more before racing but bulk has gone. Chase course now yielding but only one chase yesterday so fresh ground. What id call no excuses ground. Not soft by sounds of it so hopefully good news for PR albeit he’d like it even drier. Flat track more testing and is hurdles slightly.

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