Members Daily Post: 01/08/18 (complete)

Section 1 (comp), test zone, Galway (part 1) + Galway/Goodwood Stats quals/ Goodwood ‘through the card’

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Goodwood 

1.50 – 

Dominating (all hncps/3yo+) 30 22/1

Cool Sky (micro runs) 14 I3 12/1 

4.10 – Parliament House (1st 2YO) 30 10/1 

4.45 – Juneau (all hncps, 3yo+) w2 30 9/1 

5.55 –

Masham Star (all hncps, 3yo+) 30 I3 G3 12/1 

Poets Society (all hncps, 3yo+) 30 22/1 

Vale of Kent (all hncps, 3yo+, m TJC) w1 30 H1 I1 8/1 S1 S6 

 

Redcar

2.10 – Camber (1st 2YO) 9/1 

3.55 – Fire Leopard (m class/age) w114,30 ES+H3 7/2 S3A 

5.00 – Melaniemillie (m class move) I3 7/1 

5.30 – Liamba (m age) 14,30 ES+H3 5/1 S3A 

6.00 – Ravenhoe (all hncps) 30 H3 I3 15/2 

 

Sandown

7.30 – Ledham (m age) w1 30 H3 I3 G3  9/4 S4 S5

 

Leciester

None. 

 

JUMPS

Perth

2.00 – Ink Master (hncp chase + m runs) w1 14,30 H3 I3 4/1

3.45 – Nefyn Bay (hncp chase + m runs) w2 14,30 H3 11/2 

4.20 – 

Green Zone (hncp hurdle) 12/1 S2

Prince Khurram (m runs) w1 14,30 H1 I1 7/1 

Kuiper Belt (m runs) 9/4 

4.55 – 

Solway Lark (hncp hurdle + m days) 22/1 S2A

Make My Heart Fly (m runs) 9/2 

 

Irish Bonus Stats

6.10 Galway – Cristal Icon (all hncps) 25/1 S2A

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 18/186,65p, +5.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +152)

 

NO other tips on Wednesday. I focussed on the Galway Plate (tips below, all in free post with write up etc) and have somewhat ran out of time to do anything else justice. A quick flick through Goodwood’s card suggests its competitive stuff, a load of races packed with in form/unexposed horses, esp the handicaps. GL if playing in any of those and hopefully all the stats/pointers on this page help. I’ll just stick to the big handicap chase today…. from the free post…

7.20 Galway: The Galway Plate

Sub Lieutenant – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen) 

Drumcliff – 1 point win – 16/1 (BetfS/PP) 14/1 (gen) 

Peregrine Run – 1 point win – 16/1 (betfS/PP) 14/1 (gen) 

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Ah, what a day! 

Effectively everything that is great and frustrating about this sport summed up in one day! Certainly for my approach. Tipping wise…well i can’t complain, a nice 12/1 winner to end the day at Galway with the other 5 still running! +7.  (that’s a tired cliche, but never mind) Hopefully some of you got 14s but I declared to 12s given 14s was with Paddy Power who I have no BOG with and Betfair Sports who will match 25p every now and then. 🙂 The stats… bugger! 7/1 winner of race 1 at Goodwood was on the trends shortlist in plenty of places and yard in form. I can live with that one. The 33/1>16/1 Ron Harris winner of the sprint handicap was harder to take, on the trends shortlist of 7. Had won fresh, clearly waiting for good or softer, loads of pace to aim at, down in class (one of those recent listed races had worked out very well…that’s said in hindsight, didn’t clock that pre race, idiot) PJ booked. You can forgive plenty for a 33/1 shot on a trends shortlist. Annoying. I wasn’t anywhere near really. That is the first such clanger for a while. Well, since that 33/1 shot of Elliots won the Fred Winter at The Festival. I still haven’t forgotten. Not good enough. And then Really Super… to top the day. Mixed emotions. I’m happy. Generally. The front two miles clear and that was more like what I expected. Shame the leader didn’t come back, but she tried her best. Still a niggle about her in a scrap but she wasn’t stopping at the line and we will win races. I hope that when she does win (and she will), she’ll be the sort to win a few on the bounce, with renewed confidence. What a sport. It doesn’t get better. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

Top Of The Class

2.25 Good – Baileys Excelerate / Lynwood Gold / Making Miracles

4.10 Good – Desert Lantern / Parliament House

4.45 Good – Juneau

Jumps 

D McCain (14/1< guide)

2.00 Perth – Ink Master

4.20 Perth – Prince Khurram

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.45 Perth – Jovial Joey

Irish Angles

Henry De Bromheam

7.20 Galway – Calino Dairy / Conrad Hastings / Devils Bride / Sub Lieutenant / Valseur Lido

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Report: Goodwood+ Galway CLICK HERE>>> 

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Goodwood Day 2

Johnston Micro 

2.25 – Lynwood Gold / Bailey’s Excelerate 

Others

1.50 – Cool Sky / Lil Rockerfeller

2.25 – Bailey’s Excelerate 

4.10 – Parliament House 

4.45 – Savaanah 

5.55 –

Masham Star / Poets Society 

Whiefountainfairy (12/1<) 

Mazyoun 

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Galway Day 3

Mullins Micro 

5.10 – Getareason 

6.45 – Diamond Hill

8.30 – Bronaghs Belle

Henry De Bromhead (16/1<) 

7.20 Calino Dairy / Conrad Hastings / Devils Bride / Sub Lieutenant / Valseur Lido 

Others

5.10 – The Big Lense 

5.40 – 

Santiago De Cuba (5/1<, + JP 5/1<) 

Border Control / Apparation (5/1< both) 

Plouios (5/1<) 

6.10- 

Cristal Ocean 

Teachers Pet (5/1<) 

6.45 – National Wealth (5/1<) 

7.20 – Rock The World / Kitten Rock / Drumcliff / Slowmotoion (al JP, 5/1<) 

8.30 – Far Reach (5/1<) 

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Goodwood ‘Through The Card’ pointers

Trainer Race Pointers

Festivals/race trends…Trainers that have won said race 2x or more and have a runner

Trainers ‘in form’

’14’Geegeez Symbol as per key 

Top Rated Runners

Those horses top rated on HorseRaceBase / Geegeez / Inform

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1.50

Trainer Race Pointers

Dominating / Cool Sky 

Trainers ‘in form’

Coeur De Lion / Piedita/Lil Rockerfeller 

Top Rated Runners

Lil Rockerfeller /Coeur De Lion / Kloud Gate 

 

2.25 

Trainer Race Pointers

making Miracles / Lynwood Gold / Bailey’s Excelerate 

Trainers ‘in form’

Proschema / Drill 

Top Rated Runners

Making Miracles / Soto Sizzler / Proschema 

 

3.00 

Trainer Race Pointers

Barbill / Queen of Bermuda 

Trainers ‘in form’

rumble Inthejungle/ Soldiers Call / Street Parade / deia glory / Queen Of Bermuda 

Top Rated Runners

Well done / Queen of Bermuda / Soldiers Call

 

3.35 

Trainer Race Pointers

Gustav Klimpt 

Trainers ‘in form’

Lord Glitters / So Beloved / Without Parole 

Top Rated Runners

Without Parole /Expert Eye / Lightening Spear 

 

4.10 

Trainer Race Pointers

Munaajaat 

Trainers ‘in form’

Lovin / Mrs Worthington / 

Top Rated Runners

yourtimeisnow /Welcoming / Welcoming 

 

4.45 

Trainer Race Pointers

/ (Bilesdon Bess won it last year) 

Trainers ‘in form’

Four White Socks / Musical Art 

Top Rated Runners

Savaanah / Magnolia Springs / Magnolia Springs 

 

5.55

Trainer Race Pointers

/ (Truth of Dare won this last year) 

Trainers ‘in form’

Medieval / Handytalk 

Top Rated Runners

Vale of Kent / Truth Or Dare / Vale of Kent 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

41 Responses

  1. Hi. I seen a post in the comments regarding a strategy about a betting bank. I can’t seem to find it again. Can whoever did this please repost please? It will be much appreciated. Thank you.

  2. Hi Shaun
    It was me,
    Bank of 50 bets at £5 = £250 when bank goes up to £500 then new stake is
    50 bets at £10 = £500 when banks grows to £750 new stake is
    50 bets at £15 = £750 when banks grows to £1000 new stake is
    50 bets at £20 = £1000 etc
    You are only ever risking your original bank whatever you start with.
    If you wish to play even safer then just double above for 100 bets ie 100 bets at £5 = £500 bank etc.
    Remember you cannot take money out until you are happy with your bank.
    Cheers
    Colin

      1. HI Shaun, I did have a conversation with Ben in regards to my strategies etc… in the ‘strategies, where should you start’ link in The Key above, there is a handy table at the end that shows the longest losing run to expect per 1000 bets, in relation to the win sr of whatever you follow. As a minimum your bank should probably cover at least 1x that losing run, if not twice to be cautious. What i replied to Ben…

        Well I still have S3A# in the ‘to consider/monitoring’ pile, mainly as i only started tracking Flat this year, no 2017 results, and jumps only from Sept, which is unlike the rest that have a bit more history behind them- but logically, given the stats approach it’s based on and the constant of the ratings pointers, touch wood that continues – I see no reason why it wouldn’t, albeit at the last update the flat had wiped it’s face so far this year.

        The others…well in the ‘where to begin’ doc there is that ‘win% to losing runs’ table and I really you want to be able to cover every maximum losing run at least once, and if being cautious you’d say twice.
        So for S1 + S4, you will hit 25 every thousand bets for each, roughly, and everything in between plenty of times. So, you could say 50 points for each if being very conservative, so 100 points the pair. , S3A# would be similar.
        S6 is 12% or so, so that will be losing runs around 55 approx, every 1000 bets.
        S2A is win only 10% or so long term, but only 6.5% so far this year , that will hit and has done, losing runs on win side in 66-80 range, every now and then.

        So, all those together, if being ultra conservative, you’d say 250 or so for S1/4/6 + S3A# . I would have a separate bank for Jumps S2A as that is very choppy, less so EW s a 20% win/place.

        I thought 150 odd would have been fine for S1/S4/S6 – as it would be rather unlucky for all three to have their maximum losing runs all at the same time, but 150 for those 3 would cover the worst, and a bit more pain on top of that.

        I would view each strategy sep and thus would include backing multiple times if hits 2+ strategies. i don’t know results if just backing once, regardless of how many it hits, but it would be profitable but not as much I don’t think.
        As with any such approach it’s about starting small, £2/2.50 bets say, and building up in time. The historical results and the constant of ratings pointers for said strategies, give me confidence longer term, but as always proof is in the eating.
        ideally any strategy followers can find a way forward that brings in 80-100 points a year minimum, which even at small stakes pays for subs and leaves a bit left over.
        Josh

  3. Flat Jockey Profits

    Very poor today with only one place for the full list and nothing at all for the filtered list.

    You’ll be relieved to know that there is only one pick for Wednesday.

    William Buick (Goodwood)
    4.10 Desert Lantern 7/1

    There’s a hatful of runners on Thursday and as I’m away, I’m putting them up for you tonight. At least they are spread out a bit around different courses. You can get the filter criteria from my post on 22 July.

    Frankie Dettori (Goodwood)
    2.25 Precious Ramotswe
    3.00 Neverland Rock
    3.35 Veracious
    4.45 Mehdaayih

    Silvestre De Sousa (Epsom)
    6.20 Brancaster
    6.55 Mendoza
    7.30 Toy Theatre
    8.00 Kingston Kurrajong
    8.30 Don’t Cry About It

    Jim Crowley (Nottingham)
    2.45 Qutob
    4.30 Jack Regan
    5.35 Casemates Square

    William Buick (Goodwood)
    1.50 Zaman
    2.25 White Chocolate
    3.35 Wild Illusion
    4.45 Lady Cosette

    Daniel Tudhope (Goodwood)
    3.35 Urban Fox

    Just check before you place your bets, in case there’s been a jockey change.

    Good Luck

      1. No problem Colin. Not been great recently. Hope it turns a corner soon. It may be big festivals are not the right time to use this system but we’ll see how it goes over the next few days.

        1. Would think that the festivals will prove to be good for these for top jockeys win top races and the SP should be better with the competitive nature of the races.

          No Ryan Moore/A.P.O’Brien over the next two days?

          1. Ah sorry, yes there are 2 qualifiers for Ryan Moore S2. I keep these in a separate folder. Just forgot to check. Here they are:

            Ryan Moore S2 (Goodwood)
            3.00 Fantasy 20/1
            3.35 Gustav Klimt 15/2

            Good Luck

  4. Hi Josh, early shout here and it may be a long shot as you sound busy with Goodwood, Galway & the wedding .
    I go to Thirsk on Friday (I will put a reminder up nearer the time) and wondered/hoped you could put up your thoughts on the card, and would be grateful for any input from the excellent members on the blog
    My first port of call used to be the PNE website in a morning, it’s RTP now, well until we are pushing for promotion to the prem next April!!
    Thanks for the hard work
    Harry

    1. Hi Harry, ah i’m pleased we’ve elevated to the top of the daily web routine haha. But i’ll let you off next spring when PNE are vying for promotion! A ‘through the card starting points’ shouldn’t be a problem. They take 20 mins outside of festival races (no historical trends to flick through for trainer pointers) so I should be able to do that on Thursday, which is a full work day. Do remind me on Thursday’s post, my head in many places this week. I’ll then see if I can formulate any subjective thoughts but won’t promise anything on that as yet. I’m sure there may be the odd snippet in the comments.
      Josh

    2. Glad to see PNE in the Championship. Guarantees Millwall six points for the season!

      Reflecting On Tuesday – The Mullins runners without Ruby on board angle won again. Gordon Elliott’s runners won 4 races at Perth. Another winner for Mark Johnston at Goodwood.

      Grateful for Festival Tips for finding a 14/1 winner at Galway. It straitened up a losing day for me.

      1. Oh Martin, how harsh. Do believe 2 draws last season, and although you tried your best you came up short, 73 pts to 72 for our respective teams. We actually were the best team in the whole division outside promotion and the play offs! How do you fancy a friendly wager on who finishes highest? Say £20 to go to a charity of the winners choice?

        1. Yes I am up for a charity punt. The Lions have not strengthened up so far. Our American Chairman is waiting to see how the legal battle re selling the land around the ground goes before investing much on players. I have not been through the Championship squads yet. I specialise in betting on certain leagues and The Championship is one of those. I am behind what with Glorious Good wood and Galway this week plus the South American football. Working 6 AM to midnight at present (I am a full time punter)!

          Football chat should be on the Free Post and so I will put up some stuff there. As we say in South London, ‘you just lost a score mate’.

          Cheers Martin

  5. Elysian Flyer was a stride away at the line from bringing us back to profit after Pivoine had no luck/wasnt given as good a ride as the winner when extremely closely matched with him on their last race but such has been the luck this month. We end July at -4.4 pts so not far from break even.

    Blanchefleur Sandown Wednesday 17:45 1.5pt win-Price available 6/1
    Billesdon Bess Goodwood Wednesday 16:45 1pt e/w-Price available 10/1
    Andok Redcar Wednesday 15:55 1pt e/w-Price available 16/1
    Slowmotion Galway Wednesday 19:20 1pt e/w-price available 8/1

    1. As starts to the month go that is pretty good. Thought it had won in real time but thought we had another second when they showed the stills as I’m most did.

      Thanks Nick

  6. U.S Racing Tips – Early hours Wednesday, race 7 Presque Isle Downs, 12.55 UK time, Cognac Cutie.

    Good luck.

    1. Martin, what are the early signs like on these US tips? Do you think they could be profitable long-term?

    2. Not a winner. +29.5 points since 29 June.

      Wednesday, Saratoga race 10, 11.17 UK time, Hokulea, circa 20/1.

      Too early to say on long term profitability. However the guy knows his stuff and does his study, so I am hopeful that he will prove a long term profit maker. We shall see.

  7. obviously my form reading is more than a bit off at the moment so today i’m backing 2 for no other reason than i backed them last year and they won.
    1-50. Cool Sky 14-1 unibet
    5-55. Truth Or Dare 22-1 sky paying 6 places

  8. COLINS BETS

    4.20 Perth Ruaraidh Hugh
    4.30 Redcar Poets Dawn

    July returns

    Bookmaker SP + 7.359 points

    BOG + 37.625

    What a difference BOG make and we wonder why bookmakers restrict or close accounts down.

    1. Keep it up mate although I only made 19.6 pts last month with bookies although did miss an 8/1 shot so would have been around 28pts.

      1. Hi Nick,
        I missed a few over the past month but we only remember the winners that should have had,not the ones we decided not to bet and got it right when they have been beaten.
        Keep up your good work and once again Thank you for sharing your bets with us on Josh’s website,better give him a mention,for his vision in setting up this club which is growing better and stronger each passing year,thanks Josh.

      1. Hi Chris,
        You kind words over the past few months are always appreciated,and i am delighted that you are winning following my bets(me also).
        Cheers
        Colin

    2. Cracking month Colin. I would provide my figures but I’m on holiday and didn’t bring my laptop (for good reason).

      Was over 50 points up though when I left at weekend, so reckon +40 points at least. I did steal a few points over and above BOG on the machine on a few occasions which helped my cause. My personal preference is not to back under 3/1, that may have helped too but I don’t think so this month, as a fair few shorties went in.

      I remember the changing from NH to flat brought about a rocky patch earlier in the year. Do your figures suggest we should expect a similar period in September / October when the codes switch back again?

      I know I’m like a broken record but really appreciate you posting these – THANK YOU!

      1. Hi Francis,
        hope that you are enjoying your holiday and thank you once again for your kind words.
        Appreciate that you are keeping records and can verify the BOG profits this does help anyone new who are thinking about following my bets,i have always been open and transparent with the prices if only one bookmaker is showing the best price i will not claim it,must be two or more.
        Change over of the seasons is always difficult for the ground will also be changing as well,that is one reason i enjoy plenty of success on the AW,a 3/1 winner at Southwell pays the same as a 3/1 at Ascot.
        Please keep your records at BOG that is much appreciated.

    3. I agree with everything that has been said,I’ve never enjoyed my betting so much since joining this site.
      Excellent stuff,Colin,Nick ,Josh and all the other contributors who make this a great site.
      Andy

  9. Josh made a great point yesterday about me being disappointed about getting all the places but first on Monday. The point was, that getting places is better than them all left out the back which ironically is what happened yesterday….. 2 poor days to finish July and it ends +33.68pts, much better than the -10.4pts from June. On to today:

    Chris M Selections:
    Goowood
    14:25 – Miss Latin (12/1 gen)
    16:45 – Juneau (9/1 gen)

    Redcar
    17:30 – Liamba (5/1 gen)
    18:00 – Ravenhoe (7/1 gen)

    Galway
    17:10 – Turbo (16/1 gen)

  10. Gordon Elliott has another four runners at Perth today, starting in the 2.35, Four winners yesterday.
    In the evening racing Stoutey send three to Leicester. At Sandown William Buick journeys up from Goodwood for some rides. Jim Crowley also travels there but for just one ride, Kitaabaat in the 7.30.

  11. Hi Josh, reading through the notes etc, your 12/1 winner to end the day, was it just a fancy of yours or was on the sheet. I cannot see it. (Mind you, I could easily have missed it) Anyway thanks for the write up’s and good luck today.

    All the best Richard

    1. HI Richard, Riven Light on the 31st? … well the ‘way in’ was that he was a ‘qualifier’ against my mullins Galway micro as listed in the stats report and quals posted in Section 4 above, and then I got to work looking the race/him and working out whether I wanted to be with him, esp as he won last year etc. I didn’t use any stats/trends for that race, but got the impression soon enough it wasn’t very good and his class/being best horse in race, was the key factor- everything pointed towards them having him a1 for today after his injury etc. 12s probably just on the limit given his profile/issues but pleased I went with him! It was a festival ‘tip’ and the tips can come in many shapes and forms in terms of starting point and how I get to tipping them…including appearing nowhere on any notes/blog content etc.
      Josh

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