Free Daily Post: 31/07/18 (complete)

Goodwood Day 1

Goodwood today... this week I will be pulling out the odd ‘Festival’ race from the members’ post. I’ve gone for 6 horses across Goodwood and Galway today and for today’s free post i’ve plucked out the first of those races…fingers crossed…

 

Members tipping results summary:

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 18/186,65p, +5.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +145)

 

Festival Tips

1.50 Goodwood

Rainbow Rebel – 1 point win– 9/1 (betfS/PP) 8/1 (boyle/BetBright) 15/2 (gen)

Tuff Rock – 1 point win – 14/1 (betfS/PP) 12/1 (gen)  (as of 08.32)

 

I used some stats/trends from my members stats pack to help with this…

The three 10/10 stats leave 7…

Rainbow Rebel / Plutonian / Alfarris / Tuff Rock / Pivoine / Thomas Cranmer/ Society Red 

3 career wins only is a big positive: Plutonian / Alfarris

Running at a ‘festival’ LTO is also a plus: Alfarris / Pivoine / Thomas Cranmer

 

If the winner isn’t mentioned above I was probably never destined to find them in truth.

Rainbow Rebel… I thought this price was decent enough given the form he’s in and I can’t say that he’s stopped improving yet. He will have to step forward again but plenty of these have the odd question to answer, the odd fancied one needing to prove they get the trip. He drops back down in distance here and I assume Fanning will try and blast out and get a prominent position. He is better over further but he has plenty of guts and looks sure to run his race again. He hits the race trends shortlist, he hits my Johnston micro angle for the meeting, and were he to win at this price i’d be a tad annoyed. Something may have more in hand but I was happy to stick with the winning machine until he proves that the handicapper has him.

Tuff Rock…He looked the other one of most interest on the stats shortlist at the prices given the drop back down to 10f. I’m not sure he quite stays 12f but he has been running well, including a decent effort in the Rosebery handicap at Kempton. This is his second start for Simcock and I assume they may race him more prominently. He is still lightly raced and the fast ground could also have been an excuse the last twice. There is no firm in the going today and he may appreciate this more. I liked the fact he was doing something different here and he could have a bit in hand if it all clicks over this trip. I thought he may be a few points too big, whereas plenty of the others felt around the right price to me.

Fingers crossed one of those can get the meeting off to a good start.

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Below are my Goodwood ‘through the card’ starting points for Day 1. I started using this template/approach a few weeks back and it’s thrown up plenty of winners every time… the trick of course is to land on them, which is easier said than done. But, they provide a useful shortlist for each race as a ‘way in’ and hopefully there are a few tasty winners below that you land on… (cue a blank day!) 

 

Goodwood ‘through the card’ starting points

This approach has highlighted numerous winners every time i’ve done it, so we shall see how it gets on this week at Goodwood. Just a case of landing on the right ones, easy! 

Trainer Race Pointers

Festivals/race trends…Trainers that have won said race 2x or more and have a runner

Trainers ‘in form’

’14’Geegeez Symbol as per key 

Top Rated Runners

Those horses top rated on HorseRaceBase / Geegeez / Inform

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1.50 

Trainer Race Pointers

Rainbow Rebel /

Trainers ‘in form’

Appeared / Silver Line / Original Choice / Alfarris

Top Rated Runners

Rainbow Rebel / Afaak / Dark Red

 

2.25 

Trainer Race Pointers

Van Beethoven / Burj / Dark Vision

Trainers ‘in form’

Dunkerron / Drogon / Burj / Federal Law

Top Rated Runners

Getchagetchagetcha / Cosmic law / Dunkerron

 

3.00 

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

D’Bai / Emmaus / So Beloved / Suedois / Tip Two Win

Top Rated Runners

Sir Dancelot / Tip Two Win / Dutch Conection|Here Comes When|D’bai

 

3.35 

Trainer Race Pointers

Desert Skyline / Idaho

Trainers ‘in form’

Call To Mind / Dal Harraild / St Michel / Stradivarius

Top Rated Runners

Stradivarius / Desert Skyline / Stradivarius

 

4.10

Trainer Race Pointers

Gainsborough Hat

Trainers ‘in form’

Al Mureib / Enough Already

Top Rated Runners

Of those that have run…

Al Mureib / Al Mureib / Al Mureib

 

4.45

Trainer Race Pointers

Boom The Groom

Trainers ‘in form’

El Atronaute / Baron Bolt / Dark Shot / Just An Idea

Top Rated Runners

Poyle Vinnie / Pettochside / A Momentofmadness|El Astronaute

 

5.15 

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Hateya / Dance On The Day / Cavatina / Move Swiftly / Zoraya

Top Rated Runners

Dance On The day / Zoraya / Escape The City

 

Inform Top Rated at Course, in race order… (obv for those that have run at track in said race)

R1 Dark Red / R2 Dunkerron (only one) / R3 Dutch Connection|Here Comes When / R4Stradivarius / R5 None / R6 A Momentofmadness|El Astronaute / R7 Zoraya

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

5 Responses

  1. Goodwood Tuesday
    Vintage Stakes 2.25 7f Group 2
    Ratings
    1. Van Beethoven, Blonde Warrior, Cosmic Law, Dark Vision, Drogon, Dunkerron, Federal Law,
    2. Confiding, GetchaGetcha,
    3. Junius Brutus, Mordred, Burj
    Previous comments on those seen
    Van Beethoven – just ok, did not take the eye although looked fully tuned. 88
    Blonde Warrior – Lower medium, looked very fit but did not strike as special, I backed this one as it was the best of my top rated three. 75
    Cosmic Law – Similar type to Fahey’s Ninetythreetwenty. Broken by trying to go with Calyx, 87
    Dunkerron – Solid individual 88
    Getchagetchagetcha – Lower medium at best. Ok build 78
    Confiding is the favourite here and the ride has been entrusted to Callum Shepherd. Callum is 0/3 on 2yos and 2/34 or 6% overall at Goodwood. He is also drawn 10 of 12 against 9 of the best 2yo jockeys there are at a distance where a low draw is a great help. This is a tough ask for both horse and jockey.
    I am sure that he deserves his place at the top of the market and if, when I have seen them I back anything else I will probably be saving on him; but on debut he was held up and similar tactics could easily see him really struggling to find a way through in the last 1.5f even if he is the best horse.
    Of the top rated I would be leaning toward Dark Vision.
    Goodwood 6f 4.10 Mdn
    Ratings
    1. Gainsborough Hat, Serengeti Song, Watan
    2. Al Mureib, Conspiritor, Dirty Rascal, Get The Rhythm, Napanook,
    3. Enough already, Rhydwyn
    Previous comments on those seen
    Al Mureib – Not as hard fit as one expects from SBS. Ok medium type 84
    Dirty Rascal – I was expecting the other Hannon runner to be the better one but they entered the parade ring together and DR was a good 2 sizes bigger than London Rocks. Rangy and athletic upper medium, possibly more of a 7f shape. Calling and a bit green, plenty more to come. Inexplicably long priced. 79
    Sussex Solo – Smallish, oddly capable debut for a 2yo from connections. 65
    Comparing the photos I have of Al Mureib and Dirty Rascal I would doubt there is 5lbs between them and at this course I would not be surprised to see any of the top three make an impact as well.

    1. I have taken the 16/1 on Serengeti Song and 10/1 Cosmic Law. I was drawn to their runs previously and thought that their was plenty of improvement to come.

      1. I agree on Cosmic Law having backed him at the Derby meeting he bolted up that day. I backed him for that based on his battling performance in his run before when he won from an improbable position. I think you can write off the Ascot run large field, straight track and up against the elite 2 year olds in the Coventry. This is an easier task and think Epsom & Goodwood tracks are more similar than Epsom and Ascot so should suit.

  2. yesterday profit on flat -1
    nh @ bog 5, sp 3.5
    flat
    B 6.00 – Aelius @ 11
    G 1.50 – Original Choice @ 20 poss e/w
    3.00 – Suedios @ 13/2
    5.15 – Kalagia @ 8
    Y 3.25 – Medalla D’Oro @ 6
    5.05 – Indian Warrior @ 3
    NH
    P 7.25 – Indian Temple @ 6
    W 6.05 – Thumb Stone Blues @ 10/3
    6.40 – Cut The Corner @ 10/3
    8.20 – Milan of Crystal @ 11/2

  3. GOLF BETS
    WGC Bridgestone Invitional

    Jon Rahm 1 point ew 25/1 1/5 6 BF 25/1 1/4 5 CO 365 SB LA Unibet
    Made his Firestone debut last year finishing 28th,the 2nd round collapse of 77 cost him for without that he would have been close to winning.
    Xander Schauffele 1 point ew 40/1 1/5 6 BF BO BB 40/1 1/4 5 CO 365 SB LA Unibet
    Also made his course debut last year finishing 13th, and over the past 12 months his improvement as been amazing with a 6th and 2nd in his last two Majors so 40/1 is a very fair price.

    July was my worst month since i started putting the golf bets up here and it was the worst month in over 4 years tipping,did not have one placing came close on many occasions,last week Snedeker finished 8th at 45/1 one place out of a payout.

    July – 22 points

    Sep/dec 2017 + 26.60 points

    Jan/july 2018 + 12.463

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